What happened to hollywood?

[SoCalCircuit]

I remember two years ago the races would be virtually unpredictable but atleast there were some big prices, now it just doesnt pay. Can it all be attributed to constant 5-horse field sizes there, or is there more to it?

[Stillriledup]

The Synth form is more established and the trainers must have complained about the surface, so they tightened it up and its a super speed highway, seldom do closers win. When speed dominates, favorites dominate.

[shouldacoulda]

It's pathetic, isn't it? So many races have 2 strong favorites and only 5 or 6 horses it's hardly worth while. Even the triples are like weak exactas at other tracks. I would play California if they gave me something worth playing. Until then, NO! I hardly even look anymore.

[Stillriledup]

Hollywood front runners who look good on paper will be great bets against at DMR if anyone cares.

[jamey1977]

The Synth form is more established and the trainers must have complained about the surface, so they tightened it up and its a super speed highway, seldom do closers win. When speed dominates, favorites dominate.
Crazy meet. " Unzip Me " took the lead , and she was beaten handily. I would notice a lot of times. The last shot on the board would win, like 48 to 1 in a Field Of 9. Hasn't even happened once. Lone Speed is always one of the easiest ways to get winners. Damn, if we can just find it. The dumb jock might be an idiot and take a 19 length lead by the half way mark and just get gobbled up in the stretch. Rosario has brought many closers in. Hell, that joker brought a snail in. Would be 10-9 at second call last race. 9-9 second call race before. The damn horse won. And I lost. Damn

[garyscpa]

The Unzip Me race was on the turf and she was running against older males.

[Fingal]

And 6 1/2 down the hill with only a stretch drive on the flat isn't the same as a entire race on the flat.

But it's both the short fields & the surface. I know as primarily a win bettor it's driven me toward the more chancy type exotics because I can't afford to sit on my hands all day.

[elhelmete]

The 6.5f downhill turf course is at Santa Anita.

[Mr. Nobody]

I think it is just that Cushion Track is more speed favoring than Pro Ride and this means there are fewer "tactically run" slow pace races with bunched finishes and unpredictable winners. Field size has only been slightly lower at Hollywood than it was at Santa Anita (7.73 vs 7.81).

Santa Anita Winter Meet (main track only):

Total Races: 472
Winning Favorites: 148
Favorite Win Percentage: 0.313559322034
Favorite ROI: 0.770127118644
Average Field Size: 7.75211864407

Hollywood Spring Meet (main track only):

Total Races: 270
Winning Favorites: 115
Favorite Win Percentage: 0.425925925926
Favorite ROI: 0.994814814815
Average Field Size: 7.85555555556

Horses leading at the first call have won 29.6% of races on Cushion Track with a 1.51 ROI vs. 22.7% of races on Pro Ride with 1.09 ROI.

[kenwoodall2]

I think it is just that Cushion Track is more speed favoring than Pro Ride and this means there are fewer "tactically run" slow pace races with bunched finishes and unpredictable winners. Field size has only been slightly lower at Hollywood than it was at Santa Anita (7.73 vs 7.81).

Santa Anita Winter Meet (main track only):

Total Races: 472
Winning Favorites: 148
Favorite Win Percentage: 0.313559322034
Favorite ROI: 0.770127118644
Average Field Size: 7.75211864407

Hollywood Spring Meet (main track only):

Total Races: 270
Winning Favorites: 115
Favorite Win Percentage: 0.425925925926
Favorite ROI: 0.994814814815
Average Field Size: ****7.85555555556

Horses leading at the first call have won 29.6% of races on Cushion Track with a 1.51 ROI vs. 22.7% of races on Pro Ride with 1.09 ROI.
7.85? Either you or SoCalCircuit's "5-horse field" comment is wrong. Who and why?

[Mr. Nobody]

# of races by field size @ Hollywood Park

field size - # of races
4 - 5
5 - 41
6 - 66
7 - 90
8 - 67
9 - 53
10 - 38
11 - 15
12 - 12
13 - 5
14 -2

[thespaah]

# of races by field size @ Hollywood Park

field size - # of races
4 - 5
5 - 41
6 - 66
7 - 90
8 - 67
9 - 53
10 - 38
11 - 15
12 - 12
13 - 5
14 -2Meaning 197 of HOL's races had fields of 5 ,6 or 7 starters.
or 50%....HALF.....

[Tom]

6 and 7 is not 5.
51% had 7 or more per field.

[kenwoodall2]

And 46 had 4 or 5- what % of almost 400 is 45?
My 5 horse field rules- closers no, lone early speed yes, favs above even odds no, bet the highest 4 odds if fav is above 3/2 in sprints.

[thespaah]

6 and 7 is not 5.
51% had 7 or more per field.
That's true but it doesn't accurately portray the real numbers.
Perhaps it is perception that Hol's avg nimber of starters is low.
However, perception is all it takes in the court of public opinion.
Ok so Hol is just fine.....
Here is an example...
Sunday Jun 27th....9 races 54 horses went to post for an average of...........6 starters per race...
5 races with 7 starters
3 races with 5 starters
1 race with 4 starters....
now to be fair I went one step further...
and counted the number of entrants and added that number to the number loaded into the gate...
a total of 6 horses were scratched. that brings the total who were entered to race to 60...
This is a sign of a healthy race circuit?

[thespaah]

Oh wow!! Saturday's Hol card had a bulbous 64 starters.......

[Tom]

Well, you then have days when that number is higher.
394 races......51% had 7 or more horses. That ain't 5.

12% had 5 or less.

[Stillriledup]

Oh wow!! Saturday's Hol card had a bulbous 64 starters.......

Horsemen are climbing all over each other to run on Synthetic.

[owlet]

The entry box is bullshit and Martin Panza knows it. It's all part of the scam, a fraud to make a card look respectable.

And to the clown who keeps pointing out that, hey, 50 percent of the races had more than 7 starters (whoop dee doo!), that's not the whole story.

Say a race has 8 or even 9 entries. 3 of them can't run at all and have absolutely no chance; 3 of the others have little or no chance but are 7-1 or less and the other 3 are all 5/2. It's also likely that this is a maiden race, larded with horses from small barns with no meaningful workouts and nothing to go on. They're racing for the starter fee that you pay for while you feast on this juicy, "big" field that Martin has carded. It's a joke, a total joke.

But go knock yourself out, dude. See you in the poor house.

[kenwoodall2]

Darn 5 horse fields! Another one in the 1st today! It was better back in the dirt days! Oh, wait- today's field of 5 in the 1st was at Belmont!LOL!! Darn sand tracks!

[Stillriledup]

Darn 5 horse fields! Another one in the 1st today! It was better back in the dirt days! Oh, wait- today's field of 5 in the 1st was at Belmont!LOL!! Darn sand tracks!

Once in a while, you'll get a 5 horse field on dirt. Belmont is suffering horse shortage because of Monmouth's one year purse experiment. One of the selling points of synthetic was that the fields would be bigger because horses would be sounder.

[kenwoodall2]

At this point, anecdotal is all we have to go on, as connections are not required to show medical records, and the DRUG condition of the horse is all the connection (trainer) is responsible for. Another good reason for my advocating for the racing office at least having records of leg problems and those records passed from owner to owner,.
Delta Storm ran on SA Synthetics last year, was on a previous vet list, then listed as "unsound" the 6th. But that is what the trainer reported, who in the end needed to cough a reason to scratch and retire him. Surveys agsin needed!

[SoCalCircuit]

Sorry, I was exaggerating when I said 5 horse fields, clearly they're higher than that but they are down nonetheless. Hollywood should really take the monmouth approach IMO. BTW does anyone happen to have access to the median field size this race rather than the mean, as averages can be misleading...