Help me get my head around this

[Trotman]

First of I would like to commend and congratulate all of the hard working programmers not only on this forum but outside the forum for the handicapping software they have developed. My question to all is what other than speed and data files does the software offer that a pen and form handicapper cannot do. In all honesty I must be missing something because I am not an angle player but play on what is in the form,except for workouts but they do have some use. I'll admit with the rubber tracks my capping has changed somewhat but basically it's still questions and answers each race to narrow a field down to contenders and how I build my ticket. Any advice would be greatly apprieciated to help me understand the advantages. :ThmbUp:

[Handiman]

The first and most obvious answer is the grunt work you do with the pencil in 20 minutes can be accomplished in mili-seconds. The time handicapping can be cut down tremendously. Which translates into the ability to play more tracks and races.

If you find you can show a positive ROI with Pencil and paper, but can only play one track a day.....think of this.....say presently you show 18% ROI doing the one track a day. Just to keep the numbers small...$100 through the window equals $18 profit. How about playing 4 tracks in a day instead of just one? Now you have $18 X 4 tracks equal....$72 with the same effort almost.

Anyway you get the idea. There are other reasons others will post, it's just this was the easiest and quickest that came to mind.

Hope this helps,

Handi:)

[Trotman]

Handi thanks for the input but doesn't the cost of data downloads shrink your ROI. My next thought has to do with the contenders the software uncovers. With pen and form I might find say 3 solid plays on some days and some days 1 and this is because of the questions I ask myself as to the validity of these plays, does the software just spit out plays based on all the data and angles programed into it and how are the strength of plays rated or decided.

[MiJan]

Handicapping software should be considered a tool that a handicapper uses to ply their trade. Even a Black Box type can be a tool in that the user can weigh the output against their choices. What the software ‘spits out’ is an opinion. It is the most probable outcome given the past performance aspects used to form the opinion.

Good handicapping software will cover much more than speed. If it doesn’t then it will likely not be effective for most handicappers. To my way of thinking it should at least cover speed, pace, class and effort. These four aspects alone figured with pencil and paper would be extremely time-consuming. If win percentages (horse, driver, trainer) and distance(s) were added the pencil and paper task increases.

The advantage of software is that it performs the time-consuming formulation. Of course, this advantage to the individual depends on what handicapping points the individual finds important and the points used by the software.

When I program handicapping software, I try to keep in mind that the key aspects should be flexible to the user’s needs (wants). The user should be able to adjust the aspects to their handicapping mind set. For example, the default setting for a key aspect in the software might be a 5 rating. The user can adjust this rating up or down depending on how integral they feel it is to the outcome. In several programs, the user has complete control of all aspects. In essence, they create a template or profile that determines the outcome. This is important to those who know track differences and sometimes seasons can affect how their profile is structured. It can go so far as creating a different profile for each race type (i.e. maiden, claiming) at each track. Doing that without software would be about impossible – if you planned on betting any races on that card in the near future.

Bottom line is what works ‘for you’ is best.

[Ted Craven]

Trotman,

For myself, what I ask for from software compared to doing it by hand (and not saying that my own software even delivers all of this right now) falls into 3 categories:

1. Handicapping analysis (more/better/different, focused opportunities)

2. Wager construction and submission (interacting with tote streams and ADWs to get live pricing of pool opportunities based on contenders revealed by #1 above, and helping with ticket construction)

3. Bookkeeping (track profiles, decision models, wager records and analysis), all of which provides (OK 4 things):

4. a feedback loop which helps you focus on the current difference between what's happening in your game and what you still seek to achieve. That measured and detailed gap between reality and expectation is where you focus for constant improvement.

Offloading much of the above to a good 'practice management' software tool buys you time and freedom from burnout, permitting you to focus more on what the human brain does best, which software does not: high level pattern recognition, intuition, race watching & trip note taking, mentoring, activism, smelling the roses, etc.

Again, I'm not there yet, but that's where I'm headed. I'm lost with just a racing form in my hands (and you know that http://paceandcap.com/forums/images/smilies/wink.gif). I read the articles and classifieds...

Good luck! :)

Ted

[Trotman]

MiJan and Ted thanks for your input and I respect what you say as one should who is so embedded as I am in what has worked for me with pen and Form for so many years. I brought this topic up because of all the aspects that software users talk about not just this forum but on others it interests me. I will grant all software that for data files, modeling, and record keeping there is no doubt it is very good and fast and learning now that you can set the defaults weighing which factors are important would be moreless fine tuning the tool to the way I go about handicapping which makes me want to learn and digest more.

[Handiman]

Trot,

I would proffer that anything you can do with paper and pencil I or Ted or whomever could make a computer do. But as was said before, it's only a tool as are the pencil and form.

It's what your gray matter does with those tools that counts. As is what you are doing right now with it, asking questions and applying reasoning to the answers you get. You would have to do the same thing with any program output.

Good luck,

Handi:)

[acorn54]

some software has proprietary ratings unique to the software only which can be profitable for awhile until too many people catch on to the softwares unique factors and it reaches it's saturation point.
that is why people like cj and jeff platt cut off some of their unique factors to the public when they thought too many people had them

[Trotman]

acorn54 I apprieciate all input but whether or not as you say happens with regards to anyone's software I don't want this to turn into a mud slinging thread, thank you

[acorn54]

acorn54 I apprieciate all input but whether or not as you say happens with regards to anyone's software I don't want this to turn into a mud slinging thread, thank you
sorry wasn't meaning to make a mudslinging affair out of this thread, just stating the realities of the parimutuel markets.

[Trotman]

acorn54 no problem

[dukeofperl]

Handi thanks for the input but doesn't the cost of data downloads shrink your ROI. My next thought has to do with the contenders the software uncovers. With pen and form I might find say 3 solid plays on some days and some days 1 and this is because of the questions I ask myself as to the validity of these plays, does the software just spit out plays based on all the data and angles programed into it and how are the strength of plays rated or decided.

Any process that can pass through your brain (other than a gut feeling) can pass through a well-written program. Any condition, any tie-breaker, any off-the-wall rules ... it all depends on how much time and effort the programmer feels like dedicating to the program.

[jwel14]

Have found that the software speeds the time up and enables to download data from 2-3 tracks in far less time than to do a pen and paper at one track. But, playing more than one track doesn't mean your profits will go up. The money made or lost isn't the same amount for each track. There are books I have, such as Noel Michaels playing the winter meets. That, I wish were on software. That book helped me last winter.

[Partsnut]

Trotman,

Your thead is very interesting.
We have not always agreed but today we are on the same page and
I'm not the type to hold grudges.

Your data source and how you interpret it is all important.
I have not used any commercial software for over 6 months.
I will use a solid method that provides elimination factors and a simple data filter that will point out potentially bettable races and offer spots plays that
have been tested for profitability. I can do this quickly and efficiently.
In my opinion, the software being marketed today does not have the ability to see and interpret the intricate angles that a versed handicapper would see.
Software will not pick the spot plays or teach a player proper selectivity of playable or bettable races. Software, in my opinion, is mechanical and does not have the finesse to see what a versed handicapper can.:)

[46zilzal]

Not a single pro I know can comb the various opportunities offered by the ease of perusing with a computer program......I have spent several days this week observing a masterpiece of proprietary software that lead the user to several handicapping championships at Turf Paradise, the Fair Grounds and here in Vancouver......... You would not believe the depth of his data available in a moment's notice and he considered minutia that I never would touch.

[rmania]

Trotman,

From reading your original post I think we are a lot alike. I have my favorite track/circuit and I’m not interested in playing 15 tracks a day. I also don’t like the notion of spending lots of money on data files. Yes, I use software for handicapping sprint races but the cost for data in minimal as the files used to run my software are exported from the purchased download. That which I purchase is primarily used for generating an electronic version of the DRF. So, for $1.50 per day(and only when I decide to purchase) I get the Daily Racing Form and files to run my software. I’m not sure what a hardcopy form costs these days but I’m guessing it’s in excess of $5.

[Trotman]

rmania a hard copy form is six bucks for 8 tracks worth of PP's and your right I do have selective tracks that I play. My opinion or reasoning of what constitutes a play could very well be similar to many but as you eluded to I don't go looking for action. When I open up a form I never expect to find a play, but when I see one I zero in on it then construct a ticket to put the value in my favor. If the odds board turns this into too much invested for little gain I'll walk and watch it win but for too much risk. I have been playing this game for 50 years but remind myself everyday the discipline it takes to win. I think this is what got me started on all this is because of all the talk about with what ease the software as a tool helps in selecting plays, that IMO it erodes the discipline I believe is required in becoming a winner. I do hope we can keep this thread going.