Are you really good enough to pick winners?

[senortout]

Case in point.

Today, I hit 12 of 16 selections and made only a few dollars. ($5.10 to be exact).

These were show only wagers.

And guess what, 12 of them managed to show, accounting for my meager profit.

But NONE WON.

I defy you to try and pick that many show horses and fail to have one of them win!

Matter of fact, that 's the only thing wrong with betting to show. Oftentimes, quite of few of these wagers win, at nice prices. This is the test of a true show better. Can he plunge on, overlooking the winners?

senortout

[shouldacoulda]

How many cards did you play?

[senortout]

Here they are!

[DeanT]

Wow.

That is really hard to do.

Wow.

[shouldacoulda]

You did better than me today. I played Monmouth for the first time in a long time. I took a stab at the pick 5. Had the winners of the last 2. 1 placed 1 3rd and 1 out. I singled 2 races. Caught a small exacta in the ninth and gave it back at Belmont & CD. I wasn't really feeling it today.
I figured I'd better stop before I hurt myself. :bang: Tomorrow is another day.

[letswastemoney]

I wouldn't bet to show.

Even if I made a show bet and the horse finishes in the money, I'd feel sick if the horse won because I knew I could have done better with a different bet.

[senortout]

I have done most of the math. For my own betting this year, I have watched some nice win prices go down the drain, since I'd bet show only. However, I am money ahead for the year, comparing win only to show only. A whole lotta days, even when several win and pay nice mutuels, my show tickets add up to more $$$$$.

ps, I am not ahead for the year. Yet, I am losing less than had I bet these same horses to win. And, quite selectively, I do cash an inordinate % of place tickets on the rare occasion I use those instead of show. These are the tickets on horses which more often than not, win.

I do take the time to use a piece of scratch paper to jot down a one-liner about each starter. No computer based handicapping for me. I use the computer to wager and to watch the streaming live videos of each race. Sometimes I view the archived races of a horse or two which may be bothering me.

[Greyfox]

Case in point.

Today, I hit 12 of 16 selections and made only a few dollars. ($5.10 to be exact).

These were show only wagers.

And guess what, 12 of them managed to show, accounting for my meager profit.

But NONE WON.

I defy you to try and pick that many show horses and fail to have one of them win!



Try and pick that many show horses? Why would anyone even think or bet that way?
Good challenge, but one that only the lamest of bettors would accept.

Unless you are some type of a parlay player,
betting to Show is a total waste of time.

I bet win and place only, and of course associated exotics.
It's just that simple.
Show betting is a waste of money and time.

[Stillriledup]

I could pick plenty of winners, but the problem is that the racing secretaries arent doing such a great job of creating races that are competitive enough, which means everyone else is picking the same winners.

[senortout]

Try and pick that many show horses? Why would anyone even think or bet that way?
Good challenge, but one that only the lamest of bettors would accept.

Unless you are some type of a parlay player,
betting to Show is a total waste of time.

I bet win and place only, and of course associated exotics.
It's just that simple.
Show betting is a waste of money and time.

We do disagree on the value of show betting. However, you do know, or at least you should know, that I would never, ever bet a horse to show unless I thought it had an excellent chance of winning! And that, really was the only reason I posted this one. Yes, too, I have mulled over the parlay route a few times. Show ticket consecutive hits and length of the parlay are considerations that I have yet to deal with statistically.

[kenwoodall2]

Good job! Only $5.00+? Any +ROI is a good one!

[Greyfox]

I would never, ever bet a horse to show unless I thought it had an excellent chance of winning! .

If a horse has an excellent chance of winning, why bet it to show? Just play more on win and place.

[vegasone]

may want to try 2 or 3 horse parlays

[markgoldie]

Well, we all know the big problem with betting show: The breakage vs. the average payout is generally too high to overcome.

[Robert Goren]

That is the rub, plus you have no ideas of what the payout will be.

[dav4463]

There is an ad in the DRF that says you can win $200 per day betting to show. It's been in there a lot, so it must work...........right?

[bisket]

senort you already have solid foundation to become a good trifecta bettor. good job. you should seriously consider expanding your horizons.

[senortout]

senort you already have solid foundation to become a good trifecta bettor. good job. you should seriously consider expanding your horizons.

I just read your positive thoughts, thank you for those. Were quite a few not dependent on my fiscal well being I would most seriously consider something more along those lines.

But you do what you have to do first.

Oh, and I did play an exacta yesterday. Dead chalk. +.4 roi (boxed)The winner was returning in the feature at Delaware, "Warm" something or other name.

[SMOO]

There is an ad in the DRF that says you can win $200 per day betting to show. It's been in there a lot, so it must work...........right?
Don't all those systems for sale work? :lol:

[raybo]

I just read your positive thoughts, thank you for those. Were quite a few not dependent on my fiscal well being I would most seriously consider something more along those lines.

But you do what you have to do first.

Oh, and I did play an exacta yesterday. Dead chalk. +.4 roi (boxed)The winner was returning in the feature at Delaware, "Warm" something or other name.

What about the 10c superfecta wager? Your fiscal well being could more than likely handle that wager type, and, if you are consistent in your method and your wager structuring, you will probably see a dramatic improvement in your bankroll.

Example: using a key win horse and having determined the other 3 contenders (4 win contenders total), then adding, on the 3rd and 4th row, the best "opposite" running style as your key horse, this ticket would cost $1.80 with a 10c base wager:

WIN - KH (key win horse)
PLACE - C2,C3,C4 (other 3 contenders)
SHOW - C2,C3,C4,OS (OS=opposite running style of key horse, but not one of the other 3 contenders, E/EP=speed horses, P/S =closers)
4th - C2,C3,C4,OS (OS=opposite running style of key horse, but not one of the other 3 contenders, E/EP=speed horses, P/S =closers)

So, if your key horse (KH) is an E or EP (speed horse), then your OS horse would be a closer (P or S type), and vice versa.

[senortout]

What about the 10c superfecta wager? Your fiscal well being could more than likely handle that wager type, and, if you are consistent in your method and your wager structuring, you will probably see a dramatic improvement in your bankroll.

Example: using a key win horse and having determined the other 3 contenders (4 win contenders total), then adding, on the 3rd and 4th row, the best "opposite" running style as your key horse, this ticket would cost $1.80 with a 10c base wager:

WIN - KH (key win horse)
PLACE - C2,C3,C4 (other 3 contenders)
SHOW - C2,C3,C4,OS (OS=opposite running style of key horse, but not one of the other 3 contenders, E/EP=speed horses, P/S =closers)
4th - C2,C3,C4,OS (OS=opposite running style of key horse, but not one of the other 3 contenders, E/EP=speed horses, P/S =closers)

So, if your key horse (KH) is an E or EP (speed horse), then your OS horse would be a closer (P or S type), and vice versa.

Quite well presented, Ray. I have done the .10 superfecta, though on a purely recreational pursuit. I keep my deposit adw under $25.00, and the only time I use the dime is when I have less than the amount of a standard wager! Really makes ya think a bit about the outcome of a horse race and I have brought my account back to reasonable health on 2 or 3 occasions by doing this!

To continue my thread, I have lost $2 and change today wagering show at Churchill, Belmont and Arlington. Remember I defied anyone to bet show all day without having a winner....???and that day NONE WON? Well, today two of my selections 'let me down' and won, paying 31.00 and 5.40. I would have been comfortably in the black but oh well, I am resigned to those things occurring, doesn't faze me that much anymore!

[senortout]

Heres todays record......the 31.00 horse occurred in the 9th at Arlington.

[senortout]

I saved this pp under the heading 'current condition is the most important' heading! And I'm starting to believe it more each day. Look how this horse 'ain't done nuttin' til just lately......amazing....plus you would have thought they were gonna run all over her but she gutted it out, just like her name.

Good on ya Fuzzy Gut Girl...

senortout

[completebill]

"To continue my thread, I have lost $2 and change today wagering show at Churchill, Belmont and Arlington. Remember I defied anyone to bet show all day without having a winner....???and that day NONE WON? Well, today two of my selections 'let me down' and won, paying 31.00 and 5.40. I would have been comfortably in the black but oh well, I am resigned to those things occurring, doesn't faze me that much anymore!"

"Those things" SHOULD faze you. Your method/theory is akin to complete rejection of Evolution as a well-demonstrated scientific fact.

Believe (and bet) as you like, but there have been a LOT of studies done, testing over long periods of time, and against huge databases, comparing the results of win/place/show betting on any reasonable "best" selection in a race.

The results are overwhelming in favor of Win betting vs. show. In the long term (which is all that counts, you're simply throwing money away.

[bisket]

maybe the way to get your feet wet would be to try a super or tri when you play a 15-1 to show. when you have a good line saying 15-1 will finish top 3 thats when the exotics are really worth playing. with your hit rate that maybe the spot to try a few. just a thought. you hit one those and your betting account will be filled enough for a few years worth of fun and entertainment. usually 10-1 or better in the top three pays well.

[senortout]

"To continue my thread, I have lost $2 and change today wagering show at Churchill, Belmont and Arlington. Remember I defied anyone to bet show all day without having a winner....???and that day NONE WON? Well, today two of my selections 'let me down' and won, paying 31.00 and 5.40. I would have been comfortably in the black but oh well, I am resigned to those things occurring, doesn't faze me that much anymore!"

"Those things" SHOULD faze you. Your method/theory is akin to complete rejection of Evolution as a well-demonstrated scientific fact.

Believe (and bet) as you like, but there have been a LOT of studies done, testing over long periods of time, and against huge databases, comparing the results of win/place/show betting on any reasonable "best" selection in a race.

The results are overwhelming in favor of Win betting vs. show. In the long term (which is all that counts, you're simply throwing money away.

There is nowhere on God's Green Earth that says that MY show bets
have to return more to Me than would win bets on the same horse. I do know you mean well but I have done my homework. If it just means I am betting the wrong horses, then that is my error, but these horses, on average, do not pay as well to win. Again, you are stating the time honored and overall correct reasoning. No question of that.