A sad statement on today's cards

[PaceAdvantage]

I was making my picks for my now infamous "Beyer Basher" mechanical system threads, and I came to realize that despite it being a Saturday, there is only ONE horse on the ENTIRE CARD of TEN RACES at Belmont Park who has a triple digit Beyer speed figure showing in their Past Performances. That horse is Devil May Care who ran a 100 (her only triple digit Beyer).

There are plenty of horses with "-0" figs in their PPs though....

How sad is that?

And if you're thinking Monmouth stole all the good ones away, they are running TWELVE races today (two more than Belmont) and they have a whopping total of five horses on the entire 12 race card who have ever run a triple digit Beyer...

[cj]

I personally think Beyer figures are shrinking at the stakes and allowance levels and I have a few pretty good theories (at least I think they are good) as to why. I'll share them later when there aren't 40 tracks running, but I'm curious to hear what others think.

[andymays]

I personally think Beyer figures are shrinking at the stakes and allowance levels and I have a few pretty good theories (at least I think they are good) as to why. I'll share them later when there aren't 40 tracks running, but I'm curious to hear what others think.


Does it have to do with trying to even out the variations between dirt Beyers and synthetic Beyers?

[cj]

Does it have to do with trying to even out the variations between dirt Beyers and synthetic Beyers?

No, I'm talking dirt only and synthetics aren't a part of it in my opinion.

[proximity]

but I'm curious to hear what others think.

i'd say that today's super-trainers have these lower class horses running relatively faster times (decelerating less with all of their cancer drugs and venoms) and that this would tend to bring the figures closer together. (along with the fact that graded stakes tend to be tested more rigorously)

curious to hear what you think cj...

[Robert Goren]

I do know from my time of making my own daily variants that larger fields produce faster final times. I also know that there is no such thing as an open ALW races any more. It is also rare to see a 5 yo running and you almost never see one that not running for a tag. It seems that every fast horse either breaks down or goes to the breeding shed or both before they get very many starts. JMO

[Greyfox]

If steroids are being policed as closely as they supposedly are, one would have to expect Beyers to decrease accordingly.

[Tom]

Strictly subjective observation, I see far less high Beyers at the top levels, and far too many lifetime tops in older horses at middle levels. I forget which day, but last week, had a race where 4 horses - all 5,6,7 yos, in claimers, had lifetime tops in their last two races. All had over 20 starts.

[kenwoodall2]

Beyer figures are at least partly made based on the finish times of no more than a handful of winners per day. And, "pars" of any type means averages.
With 1/3 the number of active stallions as there were decades ago, nothing about longshots winning big races or less horses with monster Beyers surprises me. I believe more breeders are combining spped with stamina in ther descendants. Stallions with less than ten lifetime races are being bred (The Green Monkey as a sire?). Horses with any glimmer of dirt stamina are being run in the big races. At some tracks or at some meets At A Glances show a higher % of horses wiring than favorites winning.
Beyer himself had to write a new book to say do not rely Soley on Beyer figures; he still adjusts some figures.
I still advocate for some kind of track's or race's pars based on the place horse's time.
Where are the 100 Beyer horses? My guess is where they are not is running on tracks or multiuple tracks without consistent track speeds.

[Edward DeVere]

I personally think Beyer figures are shrinking at the stakes and allowance levels

Which would be quite the contrast with Thoro-graph, which has horses getting faster and faster.

[JustRalph]

I ran 5 cards through the software today.........after 3 races I quit

A Gazillion tracks, no horses and shitty races

[OTM Al]

I personally think Beyer figures are shrinking at the stakes and allowance levels and I have a few pretty good theories (at least I think they are good) as to why. I'll share them later when there aren't 40 tracks running, but I'm curious to hear what others think.

Didn't he have a theory way back when he wrote the books that they would diminish over time? Have to look that up.

[cj]

Didn't he have a theory way back when he wrote the books that they would diminish over time? Have to look that up.

Yes, he said they shrink over time when using the projection method. However, he also said there are safeguards built in to stop this and it is even easier using a database like he does now.

[OTM Al]

Yes, he said they shrink over time when using the projection method. However, he also said there are safeguards built in to stop this and it is even easier using a database like he does now.

Not sure it's really happening though with regard to the high end numbers at least. It seems a regular occurance that a big fig is being scaled down after the fact, but I can't recall the last time I heard of a big fig scaled up and this all has to do with projection.

[fmolf]

so is the breed being watered down or are the tracks getting slower or are their just too many tracks running too many races with horses running too often to produce their top efforts?......As long as the slower times are being compared to adjusted par times their does not seem to be a problem to me.

[lamboguy]

we went through a period of time with lots of tripple digit numbers for a few reasons. steroids, and track surfaces that are spruced up on stakes days. the horses today are not faster than 40 years ago, but the tracks are, and without steroids and other drugs horses will have tough times keeping up.

[GARY Z]

One of my bud's thinks horses run faster when you
bet more money in the race(s).


:jump:

[Robert Goren]

One of my bud's thinks horses run faster when you
bet more money in the race(s).


:jump:I am pretty sure the added weight of my money on a horse slows them down.:lol:

[kenwoodall2]

Are the top horses slower or just closer to the speed of today's average horse? I want to see a hisotrical comparison of regular and Beyer pars compared to early 1990's.

[cj]

One theory I have on why the Beyers are shrinking at the top end has to do with racinos. The claiming horses are getting better and better because the purses are higher than ever, by a lot. Owners are a lot more willing to drop horses from the allowance ranks because the purse structure makes it easier to swallow. Further, there really is very little claiming class any longer at the top class tracks. They have all left to greener pastures. There was a time when the open claiming race was the staple of the big circuits. Those days are gone.

Further, the racinos offer lots of conditioned claimers so by the time a horse is running in open claimers, it has 4 or 5 wins...the horses have some ability. What this tells me is the gap is smaller between claimers and stakes horses, smaller than it has ever been. Maybe 20, or even 10, years ago the par for a 10,000 older claiming male race may have been 70, and the top stakes horses was 110. (Just rough estimates!) Now, the claimers are better. The gap may only be 30 points instead of 40.

One of three things had to happen. One, the claimers figures gradually increased to an 80 while the top horses stay at 110. Or, the claimers stay at 70 while the stakes horses drop to 100. Of course the third option would be the claimers rise a little and the stakes horses drop some. I think this is what happened. Since claimers race a lot more often, I think it is a lot more likely the claimers are remaining stable while the better horses shrink some.

Side note, this is why I don't think comparing Beyers across generations is a very good idea. They are meant as a tool to compare horses racing at the same time, not to compare horses racing against totally different groups of horses.

[Robert Goren]

Open bottom claiming race very often contain some very fast that are about two steps away from dog food. Thank to the wonders of modern drugs they are able to put a near top effort. The winner 10k claimer is often a 30k runner that no one is willing risk claiming. JMO

[skate]

Better competition, brings on More Sustain/pressers to the win. Hence the time should be a little slower.

[cj]

Better and more competition leads to faster times, not slower. Of course that isn't true for each individual horse, but the final time of the race will be faster on average.

[skate]

not so with animals, some humans also, they get nervous, hit a wall.

Humans use a lone Pacer to increase times.

With more horses going for the Ely, they (not always) break, hence closers, with an overal slower time win.

[cj]

not so with animals, some humans also, they get nervous, hit a wall.

Humans use a lone Pacer to increase times.

With more horses going for the Ely, they (not always) break, hence closers, with an overal slower time win.

We'll just have to disagree on that one. I find fast paces lead to faster times. When did Monarchos run his fastest race? Even closers run faster times when the pace is fast in my opinion. Of course if a race is devoid of any quality off the pace types, what you say is true. I'm just saying that on average, faster paces lead to faster final times.

Isn't that for another thread though? If what you say is true, and the overall field size is obviously decreasing, shouldn't horses be running faster overall times?

[OTM Al]

Side note, this is why I don't think comparing Beyers across generations is a very good idea. They are meant as a tool to compare horses racing at the same time, not to compare horses racing against totally different groups of horses.

This is certainly dead on as any long term bias would be irrelevant.

[Tom]

The winner 10k claimer is often a 30k runner that no one is willing risk claiming. JMO

Many of them are 3500 claimers, but the track dosen't card them that low.

[ddog]

One theory I have on why the Beyers are shrinking at the top end has to do with racinos. The claiming horses are getting better and better because the purses are higher than ever, by a lot. Owners are a lot more willing to drop horses from the allowance ranks because the purse structure makes it easier to swallow. Further, there really is very little claiming class any longer at the top class tracks. They have all left to greener pastures. There was a time when the open claiming race was the staple of the big circuits. Those days are gone.

Further, the racinos offer lots of conditioned claimers so by the time a horse is running in open claimers, it has 4 or 5 wins...the horses have some ability. What this tells me is the gap is smaller between claimers and stakes horses, smaller than it has ever been. Maybe 20, or even 10, years ago the par for a 10,000 older claiming male race may have been 70, and the top stakes horses was 110. (Just rough estimates!) Now, the claimers are better. The gap may only be 30 points instead of 40.

One of three things had to happen. One, the claimers figures gradually increased to an 80 while the top horses stay at 110. Or, the claimers stay at 70 while the stakes horses drop to 100. Of course the third option would be the claimers rise a little and the stakes horses drop some. I think this is what happened. Since claimers race a lot more often, I think it is a lot more likely the claimers are remaining stable while the better horses shrink some.

Side note, this is why I don't think comparing Beyers across generations is a very good idea. They are meant as a tool to compare horses racing at the same time, not to compare horses racing against totally different groups of horses.


Racing more often all things being equal will enable faster times.
The way some of the top horses racing is spaced it's a wonder they can put up a time at all.

The less you work the faster you go idea is nuts.

[cnollfan]

One theory I have on why the Beyers are shrinking at the top end has to do with racinos. The claiming horses are getting better and better because the purses are higher than ever, by a lot. Owners are a lot more willing to drop horses from the allowance ranks because the purse structure makes it easier to swallow. Further, there really is very little claiming class any longer at the top class tracks. They have all left to greener pastures. There was a time when the open claiming race was the staple of the big circuits. Those days are gone.

Further, the racinos offer lots of conditioned claimers so by the time a horse is running in open claimers, it has 4 or 5 wins...the horses have some ability. What this tells me is the gap is smaller between claimers and stakes horses, smaller than it has ever been. Maybe 20, or even 10, years ago the par for a 10,000 older claiming male race may have been 70, and the top stakes horses was 110. (Just rough estimates!) Now, the claimers are better. The gap may only be 30 points instead of 40.

One of three things had to happen. One, the claimers figures gradually increased to an 80 while the top horses stay at 110. Or, the claimers stay at 70 while the stakes horses drop to 100. Of course the third option would be the claimers rise a little and the stakes horses drop some. I think this is what happened. Since claimers race a lot more often, I think it is a lot more likely the claimers are remaining stable while the better horses shrink some.

Side note, this is why I don't think comparing Beyers across generations is a very good idea. They are meant as a tool to compare horses racing at the same time, not to compare horses racing against totally different groups of horses.

Excellent post, CJ.

[gm10]

Which would be quite the contrast with Thoro-graph, which has horses getting faster and faster.

And in contrast with all these world records being set.

I'm not a specialist on BSF but I think it has to do with his projection method. He is reverting every performance back to the established level of ability horse.
This isn't necessarily a bad thing, it makes for tidy speed figures, day in, day out, and maybe he is getting more stable estimates of the true DTV with this method, but it also brings the horse's top and bottom BSF closer to the horse's average BSF. Using the projection method basically lowers the standard deviation of the horse's BSF distribution, which will make the horse's BSF fall in a narrower range.

[skate]

We'll just have to disagree on that one. I find fast paces lead to faster times. When did Monarchos run his fastest race? Even closers run faster times when the pace is fast in my opinion. Of course if a race is devoid of any quality off the pace types, what you say is true. I'm just saying that on average, faster paces lead to faster final times.

Isn't that for another thread though? If what you say is true, and the overall field size is obviously decreasing, shouldn't horses be running faster overall times?

Welp, first off, i didnt take enough time to read your 'racinos', my own TIMES are getting Slower.

Now, im putting myself on hold, regaRDS to this topic, i.ll be back.

But i do think many reasons come into play, so many that it's tough to address, "why times Might be slower".

You cheated, while putting lots of thought into the subject and you may be correcto.

I think, as i've been told, more sand into tracks is likely a (one of many) reason for slow times.
Also, the Distance, because of the constant changes in the length (5f,7.5f,12f) of the race gives the trainer some hurdles that were not as common years ago.

Going back to my 'reason number One', i'm not looking at a Lone Early to define a slow time, but rather Many Early horses, causing a break down in the fast times.
So, yes, a faster pace would likely cause a faster time, as you say, but does that faster pace fall apart, do to MANY Early pace horses?

[bisket]

i think there are two basic reason's for shrinking figures. one is i think the class structure to adjust variant times needs to be looked at. i have felt variant times have been off on many more occasions the past few years than in years past.
the other is there's not anywhere near enough stamina mixed into the breeding of our horses. our classic races on many occasions are basically a group of milers staggering to the finish line. curlin, street sense, and zenyatta have been the only true stamina horses with any talent to come along recently. i don't consider ghostzapper, holy bull, rachel alexandra, quality road, stamina horses. horse like this can run one stupendous race at 1 1/4 mile, but need 3 months off afterwards. thats not a stamina horse. a stamina horse can string together many winning races over a route. we simply don't have horses being bred like this anymore. jiminy christmas i couldn't believe the suburban is a 1 1/8 mile race. the haskell has overshadowed the travers many times recently. why? because its at 1 1/8 mile. no i don't think shortening the distance is the answer!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! when a field closes out the last eighth of our classic races in the times they've produced the last few years they aint gettin a good beyer. we need to get much better stamina bloodlines in our foundation mares. we breed for sales and not for quality of the breed. although i think the economy may actually be a blessing in disguise for the betterment of the breed. i think the breed to race farms are the ones that will survive because they can keep the overhead low.

[JustRalph]

Wow! There is a huge shortage of "Carriage returns" around this place lately

I can't take it anymore....... My eyes can't handle it

[Greyfox]

Wow! There is a huge shortage of "Carriage returns" around this place lately

I can't take it anymore....... My eyes can't handle it

JR
I agree.
There are several posters on the board who are too lazy to use capitals, paragraphs, and run on sentences.
To me, it looks like school was wasted on them.
I'm learning to skip their posts.
Unfortunately, the trend is increasing in popularity.:rolleyes:

[cj]

Wow! There is a huge shortage of "Carriage returns" around this place lately

I can't take it anymore....... My eyes can't handle it

bisket has been told this many times. He just doesn't care, he'd rather be rude.

[Bettowin]

Wow! There is a huge shortage of "Carriage returns" around this place lately

I can't take it anymore....... My eyes can't handle it

"What's a carriage?" asks everyone under 40.

[46zilzal]

Carrol On Speed promotes the idea that times have topped out. A universal sign and as they continue to breed horses with huge chests and no bone, the breed will get worse and worse over time.

[JustRalph]

"What's a carriage?" asks everyone under 40.

God bless my Baseball coach in Junior high. He forced me to take a typing class.......or not play baseball. It was all 9th grade girls, me and a buddy.

It served me very well in the USAF and has been the only qualifier for a few jobs that moved me up.........just because I could type. :lol:

I can still hear him reading aloud the typing assignment as we all tried to keep up on our brand new IBM Electric Typewriters.

Blah blah blah......"Carriage Return" at the end of every line.....

Thank you Mr. Spiro wherever you are!!

[cj]

Carrol On Speed promotes the idea that times have topped out. A universal sign and as they continue to breed horses with huge chests and no bone, the breed will get worse and worse over time.

If humans can keep getting faster at very short distances, it makes little sense to me to think that thoroughbreds have topped out.

As for the Beyers, I don't think the reason I mentioned is the only reason, but I think it is one. Shorter fields are also a contributor. As mentioned, they lead to slower paces and less need to run all out for longer periods of the race. There is no doubt that G1 races run with big fields will get bigger Beyers than those with short fields on average.

Breeding? Maybe, but that isn't a specialty of mine and I won't pretend to be an expert.

[Robert Fischer]

If humans can keep getting faster at very short distances, it makes little sense to me to think that thoroughbreds have topped out.

agree

[Bettowin]

God bless my Baseball coach in Junior high. He forced me to take a typing class.......or not play baseball. It was all 9th grade girls, me and a buddy.

It served me very well in the USAF and has been the only qualifier for a few jobs that moved me up.........just because I could type. :lol:

I can still hear him reading aloud the typing assignment as we all tried to keep up on our brand new IBM Electric Typewriters.

Blah blah blah......"Carriage Return" at the end of every line.....

Thank you Mr. Spiro wherever you are!!

LOL.

Wow does that bring back memories of taking Home Economics and being the only guy in the class. Made myself a real goose down vest when the girls were sewing pajamas and dresses. When it came to the interior decorating portion I jokingly said I was color blind and the teacher (right out of college) jumped in and said I should partner up with another student (YES!!) and just help out to get the same grade. The girl was cool about it and just had to cut pictures out of magazines that she liked and paste them into our "book".

Oh the good old days:)

[proximity]

Carrol On Speed promotes the idea that times have topped out..

i don't know if i'd say that stakes horse times have totally "topped out" but i'd definitely agree that today's super-trainers can move raw claiming par times more than they can stakes par times. overall this would tend to speed up your variants, subsequently lowering many stakes figures.

[miesque]

LOL.

Wow does that bring back memories of taking Home Economics and being the only guy in the class. Made myself a real goose down vest when the girls were sewing pajamas and dresses. When it came to the interior decorating portion I jokingly said I was color blind and the teacher (right out of college) jumped in and said I should partner up with another student (YES!!) and just help out to get the same grade. The girl was cool about it and just had to cut pictures out of magazines that she liked and paste them into our "book".

Oh the good old days:)

LOL - I was on the opposite end of the spectrum, the only girl in Shop Class back in intermediate school the year those two courses were offered. While I am pretty sure you had a better time than I did, there has been no point in my life where I could have handled sitting through a class like Home Economics.

As far as typing is concerned, since I never had any formal instruction it took years for me to become as proficient as I am now and I will never win any speed contests with a proficient secretary or accuracy for that mattter since I think significantly faster than I type and I usually have to go back and look at what I typed to make sure I am not missing words. I credit some tough (and at times draconian) teachers and professors in high school and college with zero tolerance for poor typing, grammar or sentence structure with instilling in me a disciplined perspective in that area. I wince when I look and see a gramatical mistake by myself, whether it be in a report or an innoculous online post (and I will make mistakes at times, especially when multitasking or late at night). There are some who post online that are either from the older generations and not the most computer savvy (some of whom when they were in business had others such as a secretary type for them) and others who have not been lucky enough to receive as comprehensive an education as many others have benefitted from. I don't have a problem with those comments. What drives me personally crazy is that there are some whom I know are well educated and quite proficient in typing a proper sentence, but for whatever reason decide that online they have no need to do so. I realize it is just a different mindset, but it is the aspect of the internet I am not so fond of.

[Pell Mell]

LOL - I was on the opposite end of the spectrum, the only girl in Shop Class back in intermediate school the year those two courses were offered. While I am pretty sure you had a better time than I did, there has been no point in my life where I could have handled sitting through a class like Home Economics.

As far as typing is concerned, since I never had any formal instruction it took years for me to become as proficient as I am now and I will never win any speed contests with a proficient secretary or accuracy for that mattter since I think significantly faster than I type and I usually have to go back and look at what I typed to make sure I am not missing words. I credit some tough (and at times draconian) teachers and professors in high school and college with zero tolerance for poor typing, grammar or sentence structure with instilling in me a disciplined perspective in that area. I wince when I look and see a gramatical mistake by myself, whether it be in a report or an innoculous online post (and I will make mistakes at times, especially when multitasking or late at night). There are some who post online that are either from the older generations and not the most computer savvy (some of whom when they were in business had others such as a secretary type for them) and others who have not been lucky enough to receive as comprehensive an education as many others have benefitted from. I don't have a problem with those comments. What drives me personally crazy is that there are some whom I know are well educated and quite proficient in typing a proper sentence, but for whatever reason decide that online they have no need to do so. I realize it is just a different mindset, but it is the aspect of the internet I am not so fond of.

Why didn't you wince when you saw the length of the paragraph you just typed? :bang:

[Hedevar]

bisket has been told this many times. He just doesn't care, he'd rather be rude.

At that he is a total success.

[Greyfox]

I can still hear him reading aloud the typing assignment as we all tried to keep up on our brand new IBM Electric Typewriters.



IBM Electric???
I took Typing class on old mechanical typewriters. I barely passed.
Meanwhile some of the girls were absolute speed demons.
Plunking the wrong keys and you had to reach up and physically separate them.
You also really had to pound those keys.
Then you had to start all over again.

http://www.repeater-builder.com/mitrek/pix/underwood-typewriter.jpg

[PaceAdvantage]

Please get this thread back on track...if possible...thanks...

[Greyfox]

Sorry about the side trip. I just couldn't resist commenting on electric IBMs.

Steroids were making horses bigger and faster.
If they are not being used as often, the times will decline.
Then of course the Selective Breeding can change horses traits much faster than evolution ever would.

[cj]

Sorry about the side trip. I just couldn't resist commenting on electric IBMs.

Steroids were making horses bigger and faster.
If they are not being used as often, the times will decline.
Then of course the Selective Breeding can change horses traits much faster than evolution ever would.

If all horses were running slower because of steroids you probably wouldn't notice it in the Beyer figures.

[Greyfox]

If all horses were running slower because of steroids you probably wouldn't notice it in the Beyer figures.

Huh? Let's say 5 years ago some horses were running faster due to steroids. If those same horses had been reared today, they would be setting lower Beyers.

[cj]

Huh? Let's say 5 years ago some horses were running faster due to steroids. If those same horses had been reared today, they would be setting lower Beyers.

No, they wouldn't, because Beyers are made by comparing horses that race against each other, not against historical standards.

[Greyfox]

No, they wouldn't, because Beyers are made by comparing horses that race against each other, not against historical standards.

By definition all past performances are historical.
At what point can we not compare Beyers on the past performance lines?
One week, one month, six months, 1 year, 5 years??
What's your cuttoff point, if any, for the statement made above?

[cj]

By definition all past performances are historical.
At what point can we not compare Beyers on the past performance lines?
One week, one month, six months, 1 year, 5 years??
What's your cuttoff point, if any, for the statement made above?

Before we move on, do you understand my first point?

If all of the sudden all horses were slower by five points because of steroid loss, those five points would probably be attributed to slower track speeds. I am not saying steroid use did not affect speed. I am saying I don't think Beyers would reflect this because all horses would be affected, not just upper echelon ones.

[Robert Goren]

The problem is with the daily variant. Bottom level horses are running faster times because of whatever while good horse are running the same times. They need to look at the difference between bottom level races and top level races. Par for a 10k 6F race may have 1:11 flat 6 or 7 years ago, but maybe 1:101/5 today while the par for grade 3 6f race has stayed the same at 1:08. The times were made up, but hopefully you see point. JMO

[cj]

The problem is with the daily variant. Bottom level horses are running faster times because of whatever while good horse are running the same times. They need to look at the difference between bottom level races and top level races. Par for a 10k 6F race may have 1:11 flat 6 or 7 years ago, but maybe 1:101/5 today while the par for grade 3 6f race has stayed the same at 1:08. The times were made up, but hopefully you see point. JMO

Isn't this what I said?

[FenceBored]

Isn't this what I said?

Yes, it is.

[Greyfox]

Before we move on, do you understand my first point?

If all of the sudden all horses were slower by five points because of steroid loss, those five points would probably be attributed to slower track speeds. .

That being the case, I concede Beyers wouldn't be impacted by Steroids.
However, certainly DRF speed figures would lower and track variants would increase on the average across a meet.

[cj]

That being the case, I concede Beyers wouldn't be impacted by Steroids.
However, certainly DRF speed figures would lower and track variants would increase on the average across a meet.

I agree, but this is about Beyers, right?

Again, I think steroids probably are an issue. Certainly top class runners were more likely to be injected than lowly claimers.

[bisket]

steroids have a big effect on stamina. the problem is with the variants. i think using time allowances for class is where the problems lie.

[thespaah]

I have noticed that route races on the dirt at both Mth and Bel have been noticeably slower.
2nd race ..a mdn clm ...1 1/16th time 1:46.19...the mile spilt was 1:41...
This next one is the pizza de restauranze.....
7th race track fast....F/M Alw....NW1X....the final time for 8.5f was a pedestrian 1:49.72..
That's about as slow as molasses on a Vermont winter day.
This was last Saturday......At Mth..
I have always believed race times to be relative.
A track super can use various harrowing and watering methods to speed up or slow down a racing surface.
One track labeled "fast" can be slow or fast..
A recent rainfall during a race program can result in fatser times. A track that is drying out can be glib or even tiring. Times will be slower.

[gm10]

No, they wouldn't, because Beyers are made by comparing horses that race against each other, not against historical standards.

Andy Beyer:

"Underlying all of the Beyer Speed Figures is a chart that assigns a numerical value - the speed rating - to any final time at every distance. (The rating is added to the track variant - which gauges the speed of the racing surface - to produce the Beyer Speed Figure.) The speed chart was first published in my book "Picking Winners" in 1975, and it has stood the test of time. Its accuracy has been almost magical - for dirt races. "

Maybe I misunderstood what you meant, but it seems from what he wrote (a year or so ago), that they are still based on historical standards. What you mention sounds more like performance ratings to me, like the Racing Post publishes for example.

[cj]

I actually tried to answer this in the morning but my battery died and I had to leave...before you left for good.

Beyer does use a historical speed chart. There is no doubt about it. However, what he does is create the variant based on how fast other horses ran on the same race card, NOT based on how other horses have run in the same type races in past years. That is the point I was trying to make.

It would be ideal for fans if he could do both, but I'm not sure that is possible. As a bettor, what he does is the most important thing. Other figure makers, notably Thorograph, attempt to add some historical perspective, but they seem to be failing in my opinion in the opposite direction. It seems every few months for a time there was a new fastest horse ever. The truth probably lies in the middle of the shrinking Beyers are rapidly speeding TG numbers.

[skate]

No, they wouldn't, because Beyers are made by comparing horses that race against each other, not against historical standards.

Ah hah, you see, you said it yourself, saved me alittle worko.


Beyers , speed, figures and pace figures are made by Comparing figures in the same race.

A lone Erly is more apt to a faster time, than if he were confronted by several.

More sand in the track, slows time, also.

Not the only reasons and this is not mandatory to happen in every race.

[skate]

I actually tried to answer this in the morning but my battery died and I had to leave...before you left for good.



Ah hah Ah hah Ah hah, good one CJ, another reason for slower Beyers, not as many Batteries on the track Lately.:eek: