Black Box ROI Better Than Previously Stated

[rmania]

So I'm looking at the numbers I posted in the Black Box Update (http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/showthread.php?t=71963) thread and something just didn't seem right. Turns out that the ROI was incorrect. All other number were correct.

Sticking with the KISSASS results (since they were the most impressive) they now read like this:

When the odds are 4-1 or higher:

Total Races: 101
Total Winners: 13 (13%)
Total Bet: $202.00
Total Return: $289.80
Total Profit: $87.80
ROI: 143% or +43%

When the odds are 9-1 or higher:

Total Races: 53
Total Winners: 6 (11%)
Total Bet: $106.00
Total Return: $193.60
Total Profit: $87.60
ROI: 183% or +83%

I'm kind of surprised that no one else caught this... :eek:

[tamaharbor]

We were waiting until you got a minimum 2000 race sample.

[rmania]

We were waiting until you got a minimum 2000 race sample.
With @ 1,000 sprint races run per year in SoCal, I guess you and whoever else consitutes 'we' should check back in a couple of years.

Good Luck..

[rmania]

Another KISSASS 9-1 and up winner yesterday lifts the +ROI over the century mark for the Hollywood Park meet as Terrify (one of two qualifying wagers) won the 7th race at 13-1 paying $28.60.

With that win the totals now read like this:

Total Races: 55
Total Winners: 7 (13%)
Total Bet: $110.00
Total Return: $222.20
Total Profit: $112.20
ROI: 202% or +102%

As a reminder, the 55 races represent qualifying sprint races (i.e., selection sent off at 9-1 or higher) from the more than 200 sprint races run so far at the meet.

[joeyspicks]

rmania !

VERY IMPRESSIVE....:jump:

[Hosshead]

Have the ROI for "every horse ahead at the finish line" been revised up also?
I believe they were hitting at 33% win.

If the higher odds horses are showing this profit, does that mean that the lower odds (33% win group) are showing a Loss?
ie: Longshots are the reason for any profit at all in the larger (33%win) group?

[rmania]

Have the ROI for "every horse ahead at the finish line" been revised up also?
I believe they were hitting at 33% win.

If the higher odds horses are showing this profit, does that mean that the lower odds (33% win group) are showing a Loss?
ie: Longshots are the reason for any profit at all in the larger (33%win) group?
These were the stats as of 6/18: Link to stats (http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/showthread.php?t=71963)

Every horse ahead at the finish line..
Total Races: 190
Total Winners: 63 (33%) - this is probably the 33% you noted
Total Bet: $380.00
Total Return: $437.60
Total Profit: $57.60
ROI: +13%

Every horse ahead at the 1/4 pole..
Total Races: 190
Total Winners: 48 (25%)
Total Bet: $380.00
Total Return: $448.20
Total Profit: $68.20
ROI: +15%

And here are the latest stats as of 6/25:

Every horse ahead at the finish line..
Total Races: 217
Total Winners: 70 (32%)
Total Bet: $434.00
Total Return: $504.40
Total Profit: $70.40
ROI: +16%

Every horse ahead at the 1/4 pole..
Total Races: 217
Total Winners: 55 (25%)
Total Bet: $434.00
Total Return: $536.00
Total Profit: $102.00
ROI: +24%

As you can see the ROI has increased for both scenarios.
The hit rate for the 1st scenario dropped by 1 pct point (33% - 32%) but the hit rate for the 2nd scenario remained the same at 25%.

[rmania]

It just occured to me that the overall ROI as of 6/18 was never revised in this post. So let me try again..

ROI for finish line selection as of 6/18 -- +15%
ROI for finish line selection as of 6/25 -- +16%

ROI for 1/4 pole selection as of 6/18 -- +18%
ROI for 1/4 pole selection as of 6/25 -- +24%

[lsosa54]

Am I reading correctly on the Post Time website that the program accepts manual paceline input, so if you were simply playing last paceline for one track, you wouldn't necessarily need the data file?

[rmania]

Am I reading correctly on the Post Time website that the program accepts manual paceline input, so if you were simply playing last paceline for one track, you wouldn't necessarily need the data file?
That's correct. There is a manual input screen. Your track selections are limited since it's designed for So Cal but if you're playing Belmont or whatever you just pick any track from the list. It's not smart enough to know that it isn't a So Cal race.. :D

[Hosshead]

rmania, Good job ! Do you (or could you) have roi/win% results for non-Calif. tracks ? I know you've been working at this for a long time, and thought that you might have stats from other tracks now?