Ray's Robot, FREE to a good home, Some kick marks..

[Ray2000]

Ray's Robot, FREE to a good home, Some kick marks..

In a previous thread I said I would give away my Computer program completely free if it did not win the TrackMaster Developers Contest. It didn't win so here it is.

What is it?

It is a stand alone Harness Handicapping software program for PCs known as "SulkyPicker"
Here is a Brief summary.

SulkyPicker is a software handicapping system for Harness Racing using TrackMaster™ Past Performance Data files, the file type ending with the suffix ... "r.exe". (The cheap ones.. $1.50 a card). It will display the most relevant program information and recommend selections in certain types of races for wagering. It creates its own Odds Line for each race and shows that information graphically compared to the Morning Line. For each horses' details, a chart of recent performance is shown to help establish form cycles.

It can be used for all North American Tracks for which such data files are available. In addition to working with a single program, SulkyPicker can run a batch of race programs, recording its selections to a spreadsheet file. The program allows the end user to adjust several handicapping factors so that a re-run of race programs can be evaluated to determine how those adjustments effected performance. Support files for Driver, Trainer and Track data can be updated by the user.

The program displays the details and ratings for ALL races and horses but does not make selections for certain types of races. See the SulkyPicker help file for race types not played.

A support file showing SulkyPicker performance ROI for the 2008-2009 years (12,409 races) using the default factor settings is included. (SulkyROI.xls). The default settings produce the best results on the smaller oval tracks. Summarized here they are:

Combined results for 73,570 Races from largest 26 Harness Tracks ....Years 2008 thru 2009
BMLP BR CALX CHST DD FHLD FLMD FRD GEOD HAR INDY LON M
MAY MEA MOH MR NFLD NOR PCD PPK RIDC STGA WDB WR YR


Races Played ...............................................Win ROI Exacta ROI
73,570 (All SulkyPicker Selects) ......................-2.0% ........+4.9%
12,409 (Races where MLrank 1+2 > 8) ..........+7.3% ......+24.9%

SulkyPicker requires a PC with recommended 2+ GB memory, 2+ Ghz processor, Microsoft™ XP OS (SP3) or later. (Not tested on MS Windows® 7 or any 64 bit machines) Screen Size, best on 1280x1024. Computer must be able to read Excel™ files of the type *.xls. All support files included.

Why am I giving it away. Won't that hurt the ROI if too many people are using it?

Yes it will but personal preferences for factor adjustments will allow for a variety of play differences and individual "over-ride" of computer picks will always be better than blindly betting the computer's selections.

Also, I can only provide limited support. If I were to charge money for it I would starting on a new career and I'm too old for that.


Is this the final version?

No. Another reason I'm putting it up for free is I'm looking for criticism on what users would like to see that's not in there or something that is in it, but they don't like (or disagree with) or need. (Is sire and dam info really important? or owners location?) After getting feedback I will do one (and only 1) revision and give the updated version away for free also. Any Bugs of course will be corrected ASAP. After my final version is beta tested enough, I will give away the source code so other programmers can take it from there.

The complete folder/files are at

http://members.localnet.com/~rayschell/

You will need to download

Read Me First
Setup.Lst
SulkyPicker.CAB
setup.exe

and probably VFPOLEDBSetup.msi
and maybe vbrun60sp6.exe

These last two installer files are available from MicroSoft. See Read Me file.



be sure to read.."READ ME FIRST.txt" before installing.


The folder has been scanned negative for viruses (The Shield Delux) but I must state I am not responsible for any damages to any computer systems.

Please let me know what you think of it. Positive or Negative.



BTW There are 3 other sample TrackMaster files at
http://www.trackmaster.com/harness/demos/hsamp.htm?hppx

[LottaKash]

Hey Ray, that is mighty sporting of you to offer your nifty little program....

A question tho...

Those two additional files that "may be" needed from the Microsoft site, do they need to be downloaded first, before downloading your program files ?...

I haven't downloaded anything as of yet, but was just wondering if there was a preferred sequence to this protocol....

Looking forward to see what you have been up to....

Good Luck with your newer version too....Maybe it will lead you to even bigger and better success'....:jump:

Thanks again Ray.....:ThmbUp: :ThmbUp: :ThmbUp:

best,

[Ray2000]

Johnny

You will need to run the installer file VFPOLEDBSetup.msi if your computer doesn't have this dll file already on your C drive at this location.

C:\Program Files\Common Files\System\Ole DB\vfpoledb.dll

I'm guessing you probably will need to run the installer. It is the FoxPro driver for data base II files.
(If the driver file was already present on your computer then it will ask if you want to repair?.. just say yes.)


The file "vbrun60sp6.exe" might be needed later after you've tried out Sulkypicker and are getting "VB Runtime file missing" errors. I'm guessing you will probably not need it. There's no harm in running it.


I would recommend downloading all 6 files to some folder on your C drive and then...

Double click VFPOLEDBSetup.msi ...finish
Double click setup.exe............USE DEFAULT SUGGESTED Folder when it asks where to install.

After setup finishes go to Start -> Programs -> SulkyPicker(folder) -> SulkyPicker Program in order to run it.



BTW
I know you are a 'pace figures' handicapper and at this point Sulky Picker is showing each horses 1st, middle and last half times for each pp line. Do you prefer pace numbers for Quarters rather than Halves?

[LottaKash]

Thanks a bunch Ray, :ThmbUp: ... I will attempt this when my mind is just right....:cool:

best,

[pandy]

Thanks for letting us try it, I can't get it to work, even with installing vbrun file, I get the run time error 76 path not found, it could be because of the 64 bit? Anyway, it would have been fun to compare to my Diamond Systme picks.

[Ray2000]

Pandy

Thanks for trying it.

Jim Vanderbosch at Trackmaster had the same problem with his office 64 bit set up. It is my understanding that 64 bit systems are supposed to recognize 32 bit applications and use the WOW (Windows in Windows) emulation mode, but Microsoft says "you may experience unexpected behavior in rare instances."


Path not Found error can also be generated in SulkyPicker if the TM exe data file is not on the same drive where Sulky is installed. ("C\")

[pandy]

I figured it was that, I'll try it on my laptop, it will probably work there, 32 bit.

[pandy]

Hi Ray, it worked on my laptop, but it only runs the files you have there, such as bml03013r, but when I downloaded an exe file into the same folder (for chester today), it wouldn't run and the error was "the operating system denied access to the specified file." Any ideas?

[Ray2000]

Pandy

2 other people are having the same issue and I'm trying to solve it.

I think I know what's happening, but fixing it would be easier if I could get it to occur on my equipment (4 different computers XP-Vista-Excel2003 & 2007) but I'll try.

On November 17, 2009 Trackmaster changed the compression method on their exe files. That's why the icon looks different. The older method didn't care if the 8 .dbf decompressed files were in use, it simply overwrote them when the next exe file was opened. Trackmaster's new type files will not overwrite if SulkyPicker hasn't released the dbf files and the "access denied.." error is shown.

When a new card is to be loaded, my program breaks the old data connection, waits a little, (maybe not enough for some machines) then decompresses the next race card. I've added a 1 second delay to a new version and one of the other guys with the problem will be testing it out.

The other possibility is some anti-virus like Zone Alarm is stopping it but that should not allow any card to be loaded.


Anyway, sorry for the inconvenience, I'll post anything I find out.



I wonder if it's working for anybody?

[pandy]

Thanks for taking the time Ray.

[Ray2000]

Thanks for help from beaucap we've found the problem.

I use a Download Manager and all my TM files go to a "holding cell" then I move them to the right Year-Month folder. That's why my machines showed no problem.

When I by passed the Download Manager and this transfer step.... I GOT THE FILE ACCESS ERROR!!!!!

If you right click a problem TM exe file and choose properties ... it will show "File may be Blocked".

(This is new to me). Click the "Unblock" button and the file will now load in SulkyPicker.

You can also download to a different drive then copy/move to its final folder. Blocking goes away. (I think)

I will adapt the code for those who download TM files direct to where they want to keep them.

[Ray2000]

You can also download to a different drive then copy/move to its final folder. Blocking goes away. (I think)



Bill Gates hasn't returned my call as yet but....

If you need to "Unblock" a batch of exe files you can move (not copy) the files to a FAT formatted drive like a USB Flash drive and then move them back to the NTFS drive. Blocking should be gone. and you won't have to do each file independently.

[DeanT]

Detective's Raysteau and Beaucap,

Nice work!

Ray: Right mouse click and unblock is not really a huge problem (for me anyway!)

Thanks boys.

[Ray2000]

Temporary Fix is no longer necessary for the SulkyPicker program now found at my web storage space site. It has been replaced by a version that doesn't care about file block/unblock.

If you've already installed SulkyPicker then you can go to the folder "Updated"...
http://members.localnet.com/~rayschell/Updated/
and download the 2 files "SulkyPicker.exe" and "SulkyPickerHelp" to the folder C:\Program files\SulkyPicker\ which will replace those 2 files.




There is an ironic twist to this story that won't interest Harness Players but might get a chuckle from Programmers.

In Visual Basic6 code there are 2 function calls that will "run" or "open" a program (such as the TrackMaster data files *r.exe)...
shell( ) and shellexecute( ). The first one doesn't give a **** about blocking and so the new SulkyPicker has been changed to use this call.


Oh Yea, my last name?..... Schell......................:bang:




TM Developers contest winners have finally been announced and congrats to Mike Orlando in the Harness Category.
http://xwebapp.ustrotting.com/absolutenm/templates/?z=1&a=37621
Looking forward to seeing the program.

[beaucap]

Ray,

Works great....we all thank you for your kind gift.

Bo:ThmbUp: :ThmbUp: :ThmbUp: :ThmbUp: :ThmbUp: :ThmbUp:

[ronestes]

I downloaded the updated files, even though I unblock the tm r.exe file when I load them in I always come up with june 20 yonkers card Any help Thanks Ron Estes

[Ray2000]

Ron

Sorry about the problem. The file must be on your "C" drive.

Try this first and then I'll help in more detail with PM.

There should be another sample file "bml0313r.exe" located on your main drive at

C:\Program files\SulkyPicker\Trackmaster\Data Files\2010\Mar Exes\

Can you load this sample file by going to SulkyPicker Menu > 'TrackFile' > 'Load Single Race Card'
and navigating to that "Mar Exes" folder and double clicking the Balmoral file?

[ronestes]

Yes I tried the balmoral file, double clicked it then tried to load it via sulkypicker to no avail, still comes up with the older yonkers info. It was working fine when I first downloaded it and used it, but after trackmaster changed the file structure is when problems started, I've uninstalled and re installed to no avail Thanks Ron

[Ray2000]

Ron

please try this

Go to folder..

C:\Program files\SulkyPicker\Trackmaster\

and delete the (8) .dbf files in that folder.

and try to load the problem file again.

Let me know if any problem pops up like "Can't delete..."


See my Private Message

[Charles54]

Hi Ray. Wow, that's a very nice program. Looks better than the other harness software I have seen. Certainly a more sophisticated GUI than what I was working on for the contest. It makes me curious as to what TrackMaster came up with in the harness category.

I am curious as to how you access the Trackmaster dbf files from VBA. I have no problems linking the tables manually through MS Access, but when I have tried to link, or even import, them with code I have had no end of problems ( I use DoCmd.TransferDatabase acLink... ) I would really appreciate any help with this.

Btw, are you able to access the files without decompressing first?

[Ray2000]

Thanks Charles


I've always decompressed the TM into the 8 dbase files then linked to them using Visual Fox Pro OLE DB driver. I recall I ran into problems with other Microsoft drivers, such as their "JET" engine no longer supporting older dBase file formats. VFPro is available, license free at Microsoft.

In a VB6 project you can insert an Adodc control and set the connection string to something like
Provider=VFPOLEDB.1;Data Source=C:\program files\sulkypicker\trackmaster\horsehr.dbf;Mode=Rea dWrite|Share Deny None;Password="";Collating Sequence=MACHINE
then access the data using column headings, rows or name it as the data source for a flexgrid control;.

As for VBA, my earlier Excel Spreadsheet version of SulkyPicker used macros written in VBA and gave me trouble also when trying to link to *.dbf files, so much so that eventually I just "opened" the damn dbf file, copied the columns of interest to a sheet in the workbook, closed the file and treated the data like any other range of cells. I don't know how this would work in MS Access, as I'm not familiar with it.

Let me know if I can be of any other help.

[tamaharbor]

Very nice program. Now I am envious of your programming (AND handicapping) skills!

Just a quick question... Is it necessary to maintain the 'TopDrivers' and 'TopTrainers' files, or is this information automatically obtained from the USTA Past Performances?

[Ray2000]

thanks tamaharbor

Those 2 files, TopDrivers.xls and TopTrainers.xls along with Trackdata.xls (post position bias) can be updated manually. There's no automatic way built in. I update post-position bias yearly but Top Dr and Tr is not as important.

The reason is.. this all stems from the fact that I wrote this program to work with the cheap version of TrackMaster data files ($1.50) which only has limited UDRS and UTRS, i.e. last 30 days. TrackMaster value-added premium files contain much more complete Dr and Tr stats.

So what SulkyPicker does to get the ratings for UDR and Trainer WPS% is to first check if their license number is listed in the 'Top' files, which has stats based on last 2 year starts for the 'well known guys' then, if not found, resorts to the last 30 day numbers in the TM .dbf files (too few starts gets a 0.150) Since the 2 year stats don't change all that much, I only spot change the Top files if a new up and coming driver/trainer isn't currently listed.


BTW

There is an updated SulkyPicker in the folder "Updated" at
http://members.localnet.com/~rayschell/ (http://members.localnet.com/%7Erayschell/)

No need to re-install... just replace the file "SulkyPicker.exe" in folder path
C:\Program files\SulkyPicker\ with the newer one.

This is just a minor update.

This SP has an extra column on the main page named "Crowd Odds" and is attempt to create a better line than the Morning Line and uses these "Crowd Odds" to calculate Overlay. At this point it is not much better than using Morning Lines for overlays. No change on ratings, it still picks the same horses.

It also waits for the TM decompression program to release it's handle before continuing, doing away with some "sleeps".

[Ray2000]

First thanks for the feedback, y'all have been very helpful.

The Program is still available at
http://members.localnet.com/~rayschell (http://members.localnet.com/%7Erayschell)

There is only one version there now, the latest but not the last.

The very first sulky picker did not have a column listing predicted Crowd Odds. That attempt of producing a better "Morning Line" was added later and overlay is now calculated by Crowd/Sulky not MoLine/Sulky as it says in help file.

The version in folder "Updated" was to get around blocked TM files.

The version in Siulkypicker7 was to get around some systems not allowing current directory changes, so SP now copies TM dbf files from wherever they were written to the Sulky folder.

The help file has not been updated as yet.

Requests for changes include
1. Printout to include ave TM speed and Sulky speed columns and 4th Pick info
2. User to mark scratched horses and SP to recalculate.
3. Allow for increasing the weight of a factor not just decreasing.

I still plan to make these changes, but not sure when.

Most importantly, as shown below, the ROIs are taking a big drop while the strike rate is fairly constant. This could be for a variety of reasons but I would go cautiously for a while. SulkyPicker's strength has always been in finding longshot races as much as finding longshot horses, so the program is best used as a tool for finding plays along with the human handicapper's judgment as to which longshot deserves the backing.

The attachment shows Win and Exacta a/bc performance for all races that make the playlist. The pattern is similar for Select races based on Morning Line or Sulky Line. I used Exacta part wheel data to get as large a sample size as possible on Exacta Hits. The wheel comes very close to Straight Exacta ROIs.


.

[teddy]

how bout tm speed and tm class avg for the last 3 races.. I saw that on the fast sheets the last 3 tm speed and class could be way different than the tm speed and class that they averaged to get thier numbers. Not sure if they use last 10 or what but It could be way way off of what the horse was doing in the last 3 races.

On the post, not sure how strike rate could be the same and the exacta drop that much to a neg number of .92. Only thing I can think of is someone is slamming your program with lots of cash.

[Ray2000]

teddy

A more detailed "Sulkyselects.xls" could be made available with records to include fields like last 3 races speed and class, earnings, etc. for users who want to explore this. I'll try include more of this data if wanted. Perhaps a choice between heavy details and "as is" could be an option.

As for the possibility of some heavy bettors pounding SulkyPicker, I guess that's why I looked at the performance drop off but I'm not ready to draw that conclusion.

Statistically, I've gone thru some bad losing streaks, but this year has been a doozy of drop offs. BTW, the 92.9% means the ave Exacta payoffs of SulkyPicker Hits has dropped ~7%... producing a 0% ROI for last 6 months for Ex Part Wheels a/bc.


.

[teddy]

Detailed sulky selects would be awesome. One page, one glance you can see the last 3 times of his races, track he raced at, days between races. break %

Im being selfish but thats a cool thing to be able to at a glance find key horses and line up all the variables to help me select. Plus like i said tm pace and class can look great for a horse and then you look at his last 3 and hes fallen way off. It sort of would give you that quick handicap screen. Not sure if thats the goal by anymeans of your program. Im sure you said it was the goal to find horses that were overlooked. Glad the roi is at least zero , if the hit rate didnt drop then you have to conclude the exactas got hit harder. Small pools could show a big drop with just a few players on them. WASNT ME!

[Postime]

Been using this program for a while, don't want to complain because Ray was good enough to share this sheet and I thank him for that.
If I could make 2 chgs= 1.On main page I would post complete order of all horse's instead of just first 4. #2 On details page I would condense and show program lines for all horses like a program.
A question why does the track show a diff. result than the computer picks?

I want to thank Ray again for a nice program. I would pay money for this sheet its that good!

[Ray2000]

Thx Posttime

I think you're referring to the SulkyPicker Spreadsheet Version which I Posted here 3 years ago. (Gad has it been that long?:)) Its purpose was to generate a better Odds line than the Morning Line by allowing the user to set the weights of various factor and give some idea of the likely call positions at the quarter poles. Some people like it better than the stand-alone version but the two programs are very close in what they do.

original post
http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/showthread.php?t=44426

update post
http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/showthread.php?t=57187


Your suggestion of listing the entire order of picks is one which I'll put in the final version of the stand alone SulkyPicker. Others have asked for this also.

As for the details page showing all horses I would suggest downloading the pdf version of the Trackmaster file and open it along side the SP spreadsheet. I'm not sure, but I don't think there is a charge for the pdf version once you've bought the data file. (I buy the unlimited subscription so I can't be sure)

In the Workbook, Sheet "Showtrack" the final order of finish may differ from SilkyPicks on the "Main" sheet depending on the setting with button "MorningLine" or "SulkySpeed" for performance and was meant to show which horses would be given the bonus for trip. Factor settings also effect Picks more than finish on sheet "showtrack"

I put it up originally to show what can be done with Excel Spreadsheets in handicapping the harness races so others can take it from there. The VBA Macro code is open for all to see. I put that version up again at my web space, it's in folder "OldSpreadSheet" (It's loaded with Yonkers for tomorrow, shhh:))



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