Why is Saratoga difficult?

[Tape Reader]

Why is Saratoga difficult?

Hi All,

After reading many of the PKTRUCKDRIVER posts http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/member.php?u=7315 (http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/member.php?u=7315) I get the impression that many feel that the Spa is a particularly difficult track to handicap. Why?

As a tote board handicapper, it is by far my favorite. With the exception of late scratches due to thunderstorms, I see large fields and classy horses. A horseplayers delight.

I would be very much interested in your opinion about the "difficulty."

Tape Reader

[Stillriledup]

People feel its difficult because there are a ton of quality shippers and that makes it tough to handicap for some.

ALso, it has a nickname "graveyard of favorites". Why it has that nickname only god knows because i'll bet its favorites win percentage is fairly similar to other high profile tracks.

[andymays]

Found this.
--------------------------

http://www.horse-races.net/library/review-063002.htm

Excerpt:

Graveyard of Champions: Saratoga's Fallen Favorites
by Bill Heller
from Eclipse Press, 256 pages hardcover

Many think of Saratoga as the "Graveyard of Favorites", but the reality is favorites do as well or better there as at other tracks. "Graveyard of Champions" is a far more accurate term, especially when they went to post as odds-on favorites, and this book explores that theme starting in the 1800's and ending with the 2001 meet. A chronology of all the upsets is included as an appendix along with a chart of all the champions who raced at Saratoga and their record there and how they performed as a favorite to lend statistical validity to the jinx.

[46zilzal]

One of the reasons is that it often runs the mirror opposite of Belmont and shippers don't run the same as horses for courses comes into play.

[Valuist]

Hasn't Saratoga had a number of seasons recently with over 35% winning favorites? Seems a lot more formful than Keeneland.

[Fastracehorse]

....................that the grass races aren't as kind to speed when compared to the tighter banked turns of Belmont. The race isn't over until it's over and that's especially true of the Spa lawn.

fffastt

[the little guy]

....................that the grass races aren't as kind to speed when compared to the tighter banked turns of Belmont. The race isn't over until it's over and that's especially true of the Spa lawn.

fffastt


Huh?

[xfile]

As an overlay hunter I naturally LOVE Saratoga. Countin' the days

[Trotman]

....................that the grass races aren't as kind to speed when compared to the tighter banked turns of Belmont. The race isn't over until it's over and that's especially true of the Spa lawn.

fffastt
I'm with the little guy on this one huh!!!

[Cratos]

....................that the grass races aren't as kind to speed when compared to the tighter banked turns of Belmont. The race isn't over until it's over and that's especially true of the Spa lawn.

fffastt

Are you kidding because there is something amiss in your post.

[Show Me the Wire]

I don't think he means the turns are tighter at Belmont, which most posters are intepreting the statement, but the turns are more banked at Saratoga.

[badcompany]

It's one of the few tracks where there are some good looking young women. It can be distracting.;)

[Valuist]

I don't think he means the turns are tighter at Belmont, which most posters are intepreting the statement, but the turns are more banked at Saratoga.

I have no idea what the actual degree of banking for Saratoga's turns is.....but visually, the main track appears almost unbanked. IMO, the only other track that appears as unbanked would be Pimlico.

[DeoVolente]

I've found it more difficult in recent years with all the grass sprints.

[Space Monkey]

Everybody has their own strengths and weaknesses as handicappers. In the late 80's and 90's when I used to go every year, I rarely played more than 5 races a day. Maiden turf with multiple FTS, and baby races were always a throwout for me. Races with dominant heavy favorites, ditto. What you were left with, except at the very end of the meet, were competitive races usually with multiple shippers. It was tough back then as I never had confidence in the data. My free vacations, (I did have a few) were usually the result of trainer angles and trip handicapping. The data nowadays is so sophisticated, that I have confidence betting Saratoga now more than ever. Every race, except the ones with dominant heavy favorites, are now in play for me.

[lamboguy]

who the hell says saratoga is difficult. its just a question of how much money you want to pick up!

[the little guy]

I didn't realize you were a stooper. Makes sense.

[BELMONT 6-6-09]

For myself, Saratoga is a lot more prep work and attention to detail as in some of the Spa races more than 3/4 of the field are serious win candidates. This of course leads to all of the positives (1)better prices (2) more betting opportunities and (C) a more content player LOL

[lamboguy]

I didn't realize you were a stooper. Makes sense.
you are funny!

[BELMONT 6-6-09]

TLG I would bet that you spend more time handicapping for the Saratoga races.

[the little guy]

Definitely.

More races....more horses....tougher races.

[BELMONT 6-6-09]

TLG it's quite exciting to see a potential selection that normally would be 5/1 or so on the board at other tracks at 10/1 or better at Saratoga.

[eastie]

I've found it more difficult in recent years with all the grass sprints.


start betting against the horses you like in said turf sprints.......that would be a good place to start.

[xfile]

Any horse with a steady work tab of 3-4 works in 21 days over the Spa surface or training track should get a long look if going off at 8-1 or higher. Many owners and trainers obviously point for this meet. A good solid local work tab means a lot.

[pktruckdriver]

who the hell says saratoga is difficult. its just a question of how much money you want to pick up!

I will bring my WheelBarrow.


Patrick

[horses4courses]

There is no better track for horse players. Period.

[jballscalls]

Saratoga is difficult because all of the horses i pick there do not run well, and all of the ones i throw out do run well. I like to stick to tracks with lousy horses, those ones i can pick!

[thespaah]

Why is Saratoga difficult?

Hi All,

After reading many of the PKTRUCKDRIVER posts http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/member.php?u=7315 (http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/member.php?u=7315) I get the impression that many feel that the Spa is a particularly difficult track to handicap. Why?

As a tote board handicapper, it is by far my favorite. With the exception of late scratches due to thunderstorms, I see large fields and classy horses. A horseplayers delight.

I would be very much interested in your opinion about the "difficulty."

Tape ReaderI find it easier to cap the races at the Spa. About one third of the handle is on track. A lot of that money constitutes what I call tourist wagers. I have always maintained the pencils are not quite as sharp. That said, I find a sheep metality when it comes to favorites. Especially in maiden races. The crowd follows the favorite and bombs the hell out of them. More often then not a far more logical horse is allowed to go as the third or fourth choice in the win pool.
I watch the exacta probables to find where the money is really going.
I have found value in win bets with these.
Shippers. I watch these closely. Many times trainers will ship horses in that have been consistent winners or ITM. These seem to score quite often at Saratoga.

[castaway01]

Why is Saratoga difficult?

Hi All,

After reading many of the PKTRUCKDRIVER posts http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/member.php?u=7315 (http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/member.php?u=7315) I get the impression that many feel that the Spa is a particularly difficult track to handicap. Why?

As a tote board handicapper, it is by far my favorite. With the exception of late scratches due to thunderstorms, I see large fields and classy horses. A horseplayers delight.

I would be very much interested in your opinion about the "difficulty."

Tape Reader

I think if you actually read that thread, it's not about how difficult SARATOGA is, but that because it's expensive to live there in the summer, it's probably not the best place to choose to live if you're homeless and trying to become a professional horseplayer. If you have no bankroll or home, you might want to start somewhere cheaper. That's all.

[Fastracehorse]

Huh?

The stretch is slightly longer at the Spa when compared to Belmont - ie, the distance from the last turn to the finish is 1144 ft at the Spa - while Old Sandy's distance is slightly less to the finish at 1097 ft.

Now, I'm assuming the turf courses would be comparably the same because they are inside the mains.

But this wouldn't make the difference on an overall speed bias - it's not that the turns are tighter, because they aren't, they play like they are tighter because for a good portion of this Belmont meet speed has been deadly; the last 3 weeks or so it has played somewhat fairer to later runners but live speed ( tactical speed as well ) has been very tough.

We made the switch to the Spa last year and speed did not have the same success on the lawn. My observation was there was alot of vulnerable speed caught late to closers; probably more to do with the quality of grass than anything - 47 extra feet doesn't hurt either.

fffastt

[Fastracehorse]

Definitely.

More races....more horses....tougher races.

......at the start of the meet last year - speed died an early death on the Spa main as well; I described the meltdowns as wierd - then the rains came and speed did better.

I found the Spa tougher; but that just means U have to find a horse - tough place for a public 'capper.

fffastt

[jefftune]

Closers have a definite advantage on the Saratoga turf. I just received my 2010 Saratoga Handicapper book which catagorizes winning horses as wire, stalk, and rally - rally defined as those closing ground from more than four lengths behind the pacesetter. Rally horses have won 46 percent of the inner turf races the past four years and 41 percent of the outer turf distance races. Those 5-1/2 furlong turf races are won almost evenly between wire, stalk, and rally.

[delayjf]

It's one of the few tracks where there are some good looking young women.

I've been to both - Saratoga racing maybe superior, but Delmar leads the nation in babes. :cool:

[bisket]

there is a logical reason horses get caught on saratoga turf as apposed to belmont...... more rain in northern new yawk

[badcompany]

I've been to both - Saratoga racing maybe superior, but Delmar leads the nation in babes. :cool:

Yeah, I've never been there but a few people I know who have been to both agree with you.

[thespaah]

I've been to both - Saratoga racing maybe superior, but Delmar leads the nation in babes. :cool:
I've not been to Del Mar. I do know the eye candy at The Spa can be quite impressive.
But given Del Mar's near beach location, I would defer to your observation.

[GARY Z]

aside from the horses and trainers arriving from various tracks,
track configuration,and various scenarios stated already,
add temps at 90+ degrees on many days, no where to run,
and handicapping often suffers

[highnote]

In my experience, the thing that makes the spa difficult is the amount of work it takes to win there and the amount of disicipline needed to win there.

The first year I started playing the ponies I had a profit through the end of the Saratoga meeting. I used the Sartin/Brohammer methodology. I kept detailed track profiles so that I knew what the pace requirements were. I only bet races that the fit within the parameters of the Sartin methodology -- basically 6 furlongs to 9.5 furlongs. (I haven't used Sartin much since then, so I don't know if it still works or if the application is still the same.)

The Spa is beatable, but in my case, it took a lot of work and discipline.

[WJ47]

I love Saratoga, but I find it much harder to handicap than Belmont. I think its because of all the shippers and unfamiliar trainers. I also think that it is more prestigious than Belmont and Aqueduct, so the trainers save the best stock for the Saratoga meet. :) I usually lose money on Saratoga, but I don't mind making my "donation" for the most exciting racing of the year!

I gotta admire the handicapping skills of TLG; he did an absolutely amazing job last year! I'll definitely be peeking at his picks this year for a little help.

[shouldacoulda]

I've been to both - Saratoga racing maybe superior, but Delmar leads the nation in babes. :cool:

That's a Southern California thing in general.:ThmbUp: Only saw 4 fat people in San Diego when I was there (besides myself).

[Robert Fischer]

In my experience, the thing that makes the spa difficult is the amount of work it takes to win there and the amount of disicipline needed to win there.


:ThmbUp::ThmbUp: