Travers Stakes

[Shacopate]

Sky Mesa

This horse will be cranked and ready to run the race of his career.

Has already won twice at the Spa. (on good and fast tracks)

Will get Prado back.

Race will be third off a long layoff. I've got his Haskell number at 108 and he's only going to get better.

Probably 6-1 or higher in the betting, behind Empire Maker, Funny Cide and Ten Most Wanted.

[Valuist]

I like him also but w/no Funny Cide, I would doubt Sky Mesa will be higher than 3-1; probably 5-2ish.

[Bubbles]

I figure anywhere from 5/2 to 4-1. And there's a speed horse you're all forgetting about. Strong Hope actually beat Empire Maker. Only by a head, but a win's a win. If he can get out there and set moderate early fractions, he shocks everyone.

[Shacopate]

No way Strong Hope gets one and a Q.

He was my top pick for the Dandy, but I think the ride is over.

Sky Mesa will be at least 5-1.

And he has a BIG SHOT to win this.

[Valuist]

Is Ten Most Wanted a go for the Travers? If he is, he's likely to be overbet. The quality of the Swaps field may have been exposed w/During's dull effort. Here is my guess at the odds:

Empire Maker 3-2
Sky Mesa 4-1
Ten Most Wanted 4-1
Strong Hope 9-2
Congrats 5-1
Others 10-1

w/no Ten Most Wanted in the race:
Empire Maker 6-5
Sky Mesa 3-1
Strong Hope 7-2
Congrats 4-1
others 9-1

[Bubbles]

Originally posted by Valuist
Is Ten Most Wanted a go for the Travers? If he is, he's likely to be overbet. The quality of the Swaps field may have been exposed w/During's dull effort. Here is my guess at the odds:

Empire Maker 3-2
Sky Mesa 4-1
Ten Most Wanted 4-1
Strong Hope 9-2
Congrats 5-1
Others 10-1

w/no Ten Most Wanted in the race:
Empire Maker 6-5
Sky Mesa 3-1
Strong Hope 7-2
Congrats 4-1
others 9-1

Uhh...Funny Cide isn't counted out yet. Fever is down a little, and there's still a chance he could run.

During is actually a nice horse. He just bounced off a really nice race in the Swaps, where he beat two nice horses, Ten Most Wanted and either Eye of the Tiger or Outta Here, name escapes me.

CONGRATS AT 4-1? He basically inherited third in the Dandy, a ways back of the top two. Geez, and you think TMW is gonna be overbet if HE runs? ;)

[Valuist]

You're probably right about Congrats. I'll re-work him to 9-1

(no 10 Most Wntd or Funny Cide)

Empire Maker 1-1
Sky Mesa 5-2
Strong Hope 3-1
Congrats 9-1
Others 8-1

As for Strong Hope, its a lot easier to wire at 9 furlongs than 10. A short run to the club turn, save the ground, and then its like a 6f sprint once the horses hit the backstretch. I think he will be more overbet than Sky Mesa.

[Bubbles]

Here's how I see it, not applying any situations to it...

Empire Maker: 4/5
Funny Cide: 3/2
Sky Mesa: 3-1
Strong Hope: 3-1
Ten Most Wanted: 5-1
Congrats: 10-1
Eye of the Tiger: 12-1
Others: 15-1

Strong Hope will want the lead, and he'll go after it, but the entire outcome of the race will ride on how much effort he puts in to get it. If he runs in, say, 48 and change for the first half-mile, and he's a length and a half ahead of a horse like FC, he may have something left. But if he goes crazy and runs in 22 and change, 46 and change, he's done.

[Valuist]

Do we know if Funny Cide, Eye of the Tiger and Ten Most wanted are going?

One problem with those odds: its over a 75% takeout. :eek:
No way Funny Cide will be anywhere near 3-2 after his last race and subsequent temperature. He won't even be 2nd choice if he runs.

[Bubbles]

To my knowledge, EOTT was a definite go, and Ten Most Wanted was probably running, also. Right now, I'd give FC a 60% chance of running.

And about the odds...

Nobody thought Seabiscuit would be 3/5 in the 1940 Santa Anita, but he was, even after all his troubles beforehand, because he had such a huge fan base. FC is a tremendously popular horse in NY, and I would not be surprised if his odds were low. Dumb betting? Perhaps, but these people back their animals.

[Valuist]

If all of those horses are running, here's how I'd odds them:

Empire Maker 9-5
Strong Hope 9-2
Sky Mesa 9-2
Funny Cide 9-2
Ten Most Wanted 5-1
Eye of the Tiger 10-1
Congrats 20-1
others 25-1

this is based on what I think they should be, and not taking into account any hometown favoritism for Funny Cide.

[Bubbles]

IMHO, there's too much of a gap between EM and the rest. HE NEEDS A PACE. Like I've said earlier, if Strong Hope or Sky Mesa get out there and get loose on the lead, and Bailey rates EM, he's done.

[Valuist]

Frankel is well aware of that. He got beat by a head spotting Strong Hope a clear lead. I guarantee you he will be closer to the pace this time.

Empire Maker deserves to be the solid favorite. Even when he's lost, he's arguably been the best horse, like in the Derby when he was wide on both turns, and in the Jim Dandy. In the Wood, he was toying with Funny Cide and in the Belmont, he let Ten Most Wanted come up to him but once he saw him, he started to move away from him. The sleeper in the race, IMO, is Eye of the Tiger.

[Shacopate]

TMW is a definite.

Congrats (I think) is out according to Shug.

Empire Maker 4/5
Funny Cide 2-1 (public loves this horse and in NY?...)
Ten Most Wanted 7-2
Sky Mesa 5-1
Strong Hope 8-1

And what happens if Dynever romps in the WV Derby? Does he enter?

[PaceAdvantage]

I doubt very strongly that Funny Cide will be worse than 2nd choice if he goes in the Travers. The public is very forgiving, especially with a horse they love....

BTW, is it just me, or is Empire Maker, and all the "chatter" about him both here and in the media, starting to sound a lot like Easy Goer???

[Valuist]

The odds I made were what I would book the race at. I realize they will overbet the local horse for the race and probably underbet horses like Sky Mesa and Eye of the Tiger who are shipping in from other venues.

But realistically, how enthusiastic can even the locals be re: Funny Cide after that disappointing Jim Dandy?