Black Box Update….

[rmania]

As promised in my earlier thread “Who Says a Black Box Program Can’t Be Profitable?” I have the up-to-date results for Hollywood Park.

Before I continue, I must tell you that the previous stats were compiled on the same day they were posted. It was only after I posted that it occurred to me that the numbers represented the previous 20 racing days only.

The following stats actually do represent the entire Hollywood Park meet to date (4/21/2010 - 6/18/2010).

As a reminder, the software I use is designed for sprint races only (5f - 7.5f) so therefore the numbers do not represent every race. The software provides (among other things) three viewing screens which visually depict each horse’s probable position at each of the three main track markers (i.e., ½ mile pole, ¼ pole, and the finish line).

This first set of stats was compiled by making an imaginary $2 win wager on each horse seen as leading in the software’s finish line viewing screen:

Total Races: 190
Total Winners: 63 (33%)
Total Bet: $380.00
Total Return: $437.60
Total Profit: $57.60
ROI: +13%

As you can see the ROI has dropped from my previous post of +18%. But still profitable.

This next set of stats was compiled by making an imaginary $2 win wager on each horse seen as leading in the software’s ¼ pole viewing screen:

Total Races: 190
Total Winners: 48 (25%)
Total Bet: $380.00
Total Return: $448.20
Total Profit: $68.20
ROI: +15%

Rather than slicing and dicing the first set of stats as I did in my earlier post, I want to reveal the stats of the second set if you wagered on only those horses that were sent off at 4-1 or higher. This goes back to my “Keep It Simple Stupid And Stay Selective (KISSASS)” approach I discussed years ago on this board.

The KISSASS results are as follows:

Total Races: 95
Total Winners: 12 (13%)
Total Bet: $190.00
Total Return: $253.00
Total Profit: $63.00
ROI: +25%

[JimG]

Does your program work with sprints at other tracks? What files does it use?

[rmania]

Does your program work with sprints at other tracks? What files does it use?
It uses Post Time Solutions files (previously ITS Data). And yes, you can make simple modifications to the raw exported data (using 'Find and Replace') for use at any track you wish.

[lamboguy]

just want to ask if you are compiling your data on every race of selective races?

the next question i would like to ask is if you are just testdriving or betting?

good luck

[rmania]

just want to ask if you are compiling your data on every race of selective races?

the next question i would like to ask is if you are just testdriving or betting?

good luck
The data is being compiled on every sprint race (5f - 7.5 furlongs) except for 2 maiden races where there were an insufficient amout of horses with at least 1 previous start.

As for you're other question..I live in North Carolina where betting on the ponies (even ADW) is illegal. So I guess you can say I'm test driving.

[trying2win]

As for you're other question..I live in North Carolina where betting on the ponies (even ADW) is illegal. So I guess you can say I'm test driving.

RMANIA:

Thanks for sharing the results of your black box software study in this thread. I find it very interesting.

By the way, what's the problem with the Neanderthal state politicians in North Carolina? Are they trying to say that gambling on the horse races is causing too many social problems, and therefore shouldn't be allowed in North Carolina? If they are, in my opinion they are a bunch of hypocrites to the nth degree! I read online that there are casinos in North Carolina, and gambling at casinos is a lot far worse in causing social problems than gambling on horse races.

Maybe it's time for the North Carolina horse players to lobby these stone age politicians, to get into the 21st century by allowing betting on horse races. Have any radio or TV muckrakers dug up any dirt on these sleazy politicians? For instance, are the casinos contributing heavily to certain influential state politician's campaigns to keep ADW betting out of the state? Something seems suspicious here.

T2W

[shouldacoulda]

RMANIA:

Are they trying to say that gambling on the horse races is causing too many social problems, and therefore shouldn't be allowed in North Carolina? If they are, in my opinion they are a bunch of hypocrites to the nth degree!

I love when politicians put down horse racing as a vice. We have 1 or 2 in NY too. I say let them lead by example by banning all state lotteries first. Ever get stuck on line behind a numbers addict?

[Doug3312]

What software are you using, if I may ask?

[rmania]

Don't know if it's just 'that time of the meet' or what, but in the 2 days since I posted an update the KISSASS approach has been very productive.
Using the 4-1 or higher benchmark there have been six (6) playable races which produced one winner on 6/19 (Hostile Reaction $36.80) and one place horse on 6/20 (Seattle Ruler $23.60). Seattle Ruler missed winning by a head at 30-1.

So today the KISSASS results look like this:

Total Races: 101
Total Winners: 13 (13%)
Total Bet: $202.00
Total Return: $289.80
Total Profit: $87.80
ROI: +30%

Now I arbitrarily selected 4-1 as the benchmark noting that any win would return at least $10 for a $2 wager. However, if you chose to be even more selective and played only those horses going off at 9-1 or greater (creating a minimum $20 return on each winner) you would have played fewer races but you would have seen a much better ROI.

KISSASS results when 9-1 or higher:

Total Races: 53
Total Winners: 6 (11%)
Total Bet: $106.00
Total Return: $193.60
Total Profit: $87.60
ROI: +45%

[REBel]

Rmania:

I have several questions:

1. Are these selections based on each horse's last race?

2. Best rating in a set number of days back or average rating from a set number of races back? I could not tell from what I read.

3. Is it only for dirt and poly races?

4. How about off track ratings?

Thanks.

[rmania]

Rmania:

I have several questions:

1. Are these selections based on each horse's last race?
The default settings are based on each horse's last race. Paceline substitutuion is allowed but since were discussing black box usage then selections are based on the last race.

2. Best rating in a set number of days back or average rating from a set number of races back? I could not tell from what I read.
No such ratings are used.

3. Is it only for dirt and poly races?
No. It works for any surface as long as it's a sprint.

4. How about off track ratings?
There are no off track ratings however times are adjusted based on speed rating.

Thanks.
Races are typically comprised of horses coming off of races run at different distances. Without going into any detail, this software attempts to convert each horse's last race (or selected paceline) to a comparable 6f time.

In additon to being able to create a fully animated simulation of a race, the software contains snap shots views of projected placement at the 3 main track markers.

The KISSASS selections are seen as leading at the 1/4 pole view. So, in essence, you see a longshot with the potiential of being on the lead with a quarter of a mile to run. And again since we're talking black box (no additional handicapping performed) you bet that horse.

It doesn't get much easier.

Here's the 1/4 pole view from yesterday's 7th race where Seattle Ruler finished 2nd by a head at 30-1:

[MikeH]

What is the website address for Post Time Solutions? I used ITS ages ago...

Thanks

[rmania]

What is the website address for Post Time Solutions? I used ITS ages ago...

Thanks
It's still the old ITS domain name http://www.itsdata.com/index.html