Horse Readiness

[thoroughbred]

Clearly, a horse needs some time after a race before we can expect a subsequent good performance.

I have been thinking about this and wonder if anyone has a handle on it.

The way I see it, it is not too simple to think through. For example, if a horse races too soon after a trying race we can expect poor performance. But, if a horse abstains from racing for too long a period of time, then we can also expect poor performance because his condition would have deteriorated.

Then to complicate the thought process there are workouts. Workouts between races can serve to keep a horse in condition, but again, if they are too often, or occur to soon prior to a race, they might cause the opposite effect.

Then of course there is the need to know how much effort the horse put into a race or workout.

So a combination of races, and workouts with proper intervals between them, and with proper amounts of time before another race, is probably the best.

BUT, what are suitable time intervals for races and workouts? Are there some "rules of thumb" that can be used to help us evaluate whether or not a horse is ready for good performance based on the time intervals of races and workouts, and the effort exerted?

Thanks.

[so.cal.fan]

The way I deal with it, is to see what the horse has done in the past. Does it run well after a short rest or a layoff, or run best right back?
With the use of clenbuterol and epogen, horses can train well off a layoff, in my opinion, this is the reason for more horses winning off of layoffs than in past years. I'm sure the data base people will correct me if I am mistaken, but it seems that way.

[hurrikane]

I can't test for drugs in my db. :D
what I have found...the biggest impact on a horse coming off a layoff is the trainer. I believe for several reasons. the top 2 probably are.....

1. the top trainers have the facilities, monies, and abilities to get a horse ready to run..many times without even showing a work at the track. The lesser trainers cannot, many times, even pay for an exercise rider and have to race thier horses into shape.

2. the top trainers usually are handleing better stock and are not so quick to race a horse that isn't ready.

[thoroughbred]

In thinking about the first 2 replies to my question, I believe I should add to the question a bit.

O.K., we can assume that a good trainer will wait until a horse is ready before racing him again. But what are the things to look for to predict that a READY horse is likely to IMPROVE his performance over previous races?

The other side of the coin is interesting also. What are the signs to look for to predict that a READY horse is likely to race MORE POORLY than in previous races?

One such sign, that comes to mind, is a change in the class of the race. Are there any other signs?

[BIG HIT]

Hi yes one come to mind cheap horse running hi biggest fig ever especially clm 4000.And good races on off track today is fast.That is all can think of off top of my head right now.Hope i was some help

[hurrikane]

winning and then a >30 day layoff or class drop. This pertains mostly to claimers non stk calibre horses.....

[so.cal.fan]

Where the horse is placed is very important. A long layoff and a class drop in claiming races are usually a very negative sign.
It costs a lot of money to lay up a horse. If he drops, they are probably letting you know, the horse has regressed.
If they put him up a bit, watch him, possibly the next time, if they drop him where he figures to fit. They were not taking a chance on losing him in a claim.