Anyone used BRIS's Neurax lately?

[MikeH]

I notice that BRIS is giving away 5 free Neurax files in August. Has anyone used the program lately?

Thanks...

[Jaguar]

Mike, this from an old BRIS veteran, your time is too valuable to waste on this one-dimensional horse program.

Neurax, as is the case with Multicaps, AODDS, and a host of other pace discs- is just going to give you the speedy $3.80 horses.

You might find one of the comprehensive A.I. programs more to your liking, because they will give you the mortgage busters- the $8 and even $15 horses(occasionally)- which make this game worth the candle.

All The Best,

Jaguar

[sq764]

Interesting.. What are some of the more comprehensive AI programs out there?

[GameTheory]

I gave Neurax a good workout once when they offered the files free for a whole month. I found it a total waste. It would produce lots of impressive reports on profitable categories, but it would just back fit the data. Couldn't find any way to make money with it...

[Storm Cadet]

Jag,

You said your a long time BRIS customer...so am I. I downloaded from Equibase their Trackmaster sheets (Trackmaster.com) this weekend for the Haskell...have you ever used them or evaluated them?

I noticed a lot of similarities between them and Bris, and when I got a customer rep on the phone to explain some finer points, this guy couldn't explain the nose from the tail of a racehorse, let alone understand early pace stats...thanks in advance!

Storm

[rmania]

Originally posted by Jaguar
Neurax, as is the case with Multicaps, AODDS, and a host of other pace discs- is just going to give you the speedy $3.80 horses.

You might find one of the comprehensive A.I. programs more to your liking, because they will give you the mortgage busters- the $8 and even $15 horses(occasionally)- which make this game worth the candle.
Or you might try one that would have given you a $126 winner just last week at Del Mar. ;)

[Jaguar]

SQ 764, delighted to share my opinion as to which are the best handicapping programs on the market.

But- but prefer to e-mail you, in this instance, to avoid the notion that I am promoting any particular products(which I am not, notwithstanding the fact that I have worked as a beta tester for two of the biggest outfits).

I own most of the best discs, and the few that I don't have in my diskette boxes, I see friends using at OTB.

Kindly send me your e-mail address.

All The Best,

Jaguar

JaguarXK140MC@aol.com

[Jaguar]

Storm, you happened upon one of horse racing's dirty little secrets, the fact that 98% of the men involved in ancillary industry businesses, such as marketing data, never bet on horse races, know nothing about the game, and couldn't care less.

Amazingly, this also applies to handicapping program developers, who are invariably talented programmers and who invariably do not earn their living betting on horses.

Most of the guys who write handicapping discs came into the game since 1978, when Huey Mahl influenced pace and speed discs quickly became the rage.

The old timers, who used class and trainer/jockey stats to determine their bets, faded from the scene. Today the speed and pace orthodoxy is still strong, and the discs most people use are so heavily slanted that way, that when you see a new program- or a newly revised program advertised as "new" and "comprehensive" it's always a gross exaggeration.

These discs consistently turn out to be the same old run-of-the-mill pace discs, tarted up in a new format.

There is only one question which handicappers want answered, that is: "Which are the best horses in this race and what is their statistical(percentage) chance of winning- or running in the money- in this race, at this distance, at this track?"

Naturally, that determination requires that alot of questions be asked about each horse's recent past performances, and these questions must be couched in the format of proven algorithms, which are known to pick winners.

It is widely known(among A. I. program developers) that there are a minimum of 22-25 algorithms required for accurately analyzing a race horse's recent performance history.

Furthermore, effective handicapping is not just a ranking of horses in the race, rather, good handicapping must based on track-specific models, so that the handicapper can tell at a glance whether an animal is truly "well-meant for today".

After all, trainers try to win most of the time, but they often spot their horses incorrectly. There is a saying which you will hear at handicapping seminars, "The best models get the money". -So true.

In my humble opinion, the best handicapping discs are miles ahead of their competition. This fact is easily demonstrated by bench-marking a weak program, such as FOCUS, Common Ground, TrackMaster, AODDS, MultiCaps, etc., etc., against a strong, optimized A.I. disc.

TrackMaster is a one-dimensional speed and pace program which is generic in nature,- that is, the program has not been optimized(trained) and thus the disc lacks genuine handicapping power and sophisticated, subtle insight as to the probable outcome of the race.

As Curtis Martin, a smart handicapper and a smart programmer(I will not comment here on his business ethics) once remarked to me, "Racing is all about patterns. Find the horse which fits the pattern of a winner in this race, and you'll win money."

He was right.

All the best,

Jaguar

[VetScratch]

IMHO, there are NO software packages that will work for recreational players who want to bet almost all races without much regard to money management.

But if someone has or uses such a package, keep it under your hat!

Some of the value-play packages have offered quite profitable but laborious spot-play systems that remain profitable year after year, which just proves that most users are recreational players. Even so, keeping a good thing under your hat is wise advice.

[Jaguar]

In response to several e-mail queries- and comments- which I have received recently concerning All-Ways, to save time I will just say that my remarks were made under the assumption that we were all discussing the Professional version.

I can't comment on the free version available from BRIS. Also, I apparently did not stress the fact that I was referring to the program's model-making capability. Models are the key to the vault.

To all who wrote me concerning All-Ways, thanks for accepting this answer in lieu of a personal response.

All The Best,

Jaguar

[Dave Schwartz]

Jaguar,

I must take issue with something you said:

you said: "It is widely known(among A. I. program developers) that there are a minimum of 22-25 algorithms required for accurately analyzing a race horse's recent performance history."


From what source did you glean this information?

My personal experience is that "nothing is widely known among A.I. developers." In fact, I would say that we can be divided into two distinct camps: Those who do the text book A.I. approaches and those who "roll their own."

Again, my experience tells me that the first group never seem to develop anything that works and the second aren't talking.


Regards,
Dave Schwartz

[GameTheory]

Originally posted by Dave Schwartz

Again, my experience tells me that the first group never seem to develop anything that works and the second aren't talking.


As a member of the second group, I agree 100%.

[midnight]

Personally, I throw a dart at the program.

[VetScratch]

Dave,My personal experience is that "nothing is widely known among A.I. developers." In fact, I would say that we can be divided into two distinct camps: Those who do the text book A.I. approaches and those who "roll their own."
Again, my experience tells me that the first group never seem to develop anything that works and the second aren't talking.
My experience is that there are two species of AI practitioners:
(1) A practically non-existent group (for good reason) that attempts to apply "purely academic" and often "open-source" examples of AI to horseracing, and
(2) a group of database researchers who borrow some AI concepts to facilitate finding statistically valid branches in a tree of circumstances. The best of this group aren't talking.

And then there are a some folks who are human prodigies that need no computers to serve as neurotransmitters for "track savvy." If the best among this group talk at all, the listening experience is often similar to assembling a bicycle while watching a Discovery Channel show explain how "fuzzy logic" optimized the Tokyo subway system.

[Jaguar]

Dave, glad to have a chance to respond to a query from one of the foremost men in the handicapping field.

After all, I did make decent money for quite a while with Thorobrain, once I had the models up and running.

In fact, your brilliant program allowed me to dominate the Allowance Race exacta pools at Philadelphia Park and Monmouth for a good spell- a few years ago, and- come to think of it-I never wrote to thank you.

Interestingly, Thorobrain revealed a key insight to analyzing the 6f Allowance sprints at Monmouth which still pertains today and continues to help keep the bill collector from my door.

Over the years, through attending handicapping seminars in Vegas, and through studying the nuts and bolts of the expert system and A. I. programs which began appearing on the market in the late 80's, I began tracking the effectiveness of certain algorithms.

During the 90's I worked at times for two of the biggest outfits in the data marketing/program development game- as a beta tester, so I learned quite a bit about what works and what doesn't, as far as handicapping is concerned.

Furthermore, by communicating with some really smart handicappers, as well as some talented programmers, I gradually acquired a decent over-view of what it takes to win consistently.

In that regard, I would mention the names of a few men who have been generous in sharing their sophisticated and very valuable insights into the nature of effective handicapping.

They are: Joe Shepard at RACECOM...

Manhal(recently retired, but was one of the best handicappers on the planet, his Thorobrain models were superb)...

Mr. Hall at Frandsen Publishing(All-Ways), a tremendously talented programmer...

and the late David Brown, probably the most successful handicapper in Florida history, a man who had an almost intuitive grasp of how to quickly apply mathematical techniques in analyzing a horse's past performance record. His method for analyzing the rate at which a race horse expends energy was incredibly accurate...

Mr. Sinn, of F.I.G.S. fame, best known for developing the desktop stock market display, but who was an insightful handicapper...

Curtis Martin, developer of Multi-Strats, a talented programmer and handicapper,who- working with Dr. Sengbush and others, such as Tom Console, produced a brilliant- albeit flawed- expert system disc containing 18 of the strongest algorithms in the handicapping field.

Gradually, I was able to cull the best algorithms and from them I have been able to generate track-specific models, which I use weekly. Curiously, there is only one algorithm which is effective in all types of races- Strategy 16 found in Multi-Strats.

Of course, as in the case of so many good things in life, highly rated Strategy 16 horses do not always appear on that day's card. C'est la Vie.

All The Best,

Jaguar

[Dave Schwartz]

Jaguar,

An impressive list of... people. (I am honored to be on your list.)

I guess I should hang out more with my peers, eh? <G>

Personally, I subscribe to the theory behind Occam's Razor, and, therefore, would prefer to keep it as simple as possible.

While I accept the fact that complexity is certainly a part of horse racing, the problem of "properly segmented samples" demands an A.I. approach that is as simple as possible.

Nevertheless, I must still challenge the statement "22-25 algorithms required for accurately..." etc. etc. I am not saying it is not so or that you did not hear it from these developers. I am simply saying that it is not a "widely known" fact on Bronze Canyon Drive, in Reno, Nevada. <G>


Regards,
Dave Schwartz

PS: Where did you get this "discs" business, anyway? <G>

[Jaguar]

Dave, great to hear from you. My reference to the pertinent algorithms derives from my association with some All-Ways fanatics, as well as some followers of work done by Curtis Martin when he was working with Dr. Sengbush.

Dr. Sengbush was at one time a mathemetician who was employed by NASA- in its heyday- and he is certainly one of the premier scientists that ever delved into handicapping. He eschews the limelight, but his proposed revision for Multi-Strats- had that program ever been re-done- would have vaulted Multi-Strats into the Pantheon of great handicapping programs, along with Thorobrain, TB5, All-Ways, and RACECOM's new program.

Sorry to say that I didn't grasp your reference to "discs". When I used the word I was referring to "diskettes".

If a guy hangs around with A.I. and expert system programmers, he soon is immured in lists of favorite algorithms.

Some day I hope to make your acquaintance, as I would enjoy sharing my 18 favorite algorithms, the "Big Dogs" as I like to refer to them. It won't be anything new to you, but I will be interested to see your reaction to the statistical weights my models give those formulas, for different types of races.

All The Best,

Jaguar

[Dave Schwartz]

Jag,

Oh, now you have my attention. I'd love to hear about the "Big Dogs."

Understand that I am not suggesting that your ideas are not valid. I learned a long time ago that what matters is that something works... and often it works for one person and not another. Heck, I even liked Scoop Cohen's ideas. (No joke.)

Dave

PS: Where do you live?

[VetScratch]

Jaguar,
Dr. Sengbush was at one time a mathemetician who was employed by NASA- in its heyday- and he is certainly one of the premier scientists that ever delved into handicapping.
You must mean R.L. Sengbush, best known for "Seismic Exploration Methods" having to do with sending robotic explorers to the moon and mars.

If he is still living, he may be on the faculty at the Colorado School Of Mines. At one time he ruled the mutuels at Arapahoe Downs.

[VetScratch]

Some years ago, Sengbush authored a paper entitled "Seismic Impact On Speed."

In geographic regions near major plate boundaries, such as the San Andreas Fault, he proposed that track surface particles are subjected to constant agitation by micro-tremors that are below the threshhold of human sensory perception. Thus, the loose surface above the track bottom is always settling faster at HOL and SA than CD or BEL.

On the SO-CAL circuit, the smallest solid particles filter down to displace tiny gas pockets and create what he called the "West Coast Speed Bounce" which accounts for faster workouts and race times than at most other tracks.

He also claimed that the frequency and magnitude of micro-tremors varies substantially from minute to minute. From this he concluded that West Coast variant-makers were missing intra-day adjustments that could only be rationalized if very precise and continuous seismic readings were taken into account.

If any of our SO-CAL members have invested in seismic equipment, maybe they can better explain the Sengbush Seismic Factor.

[Jaguar]

Dave, I live in Hamden, CT a suburb of New Haven.

VetScratch, you just did a no-no. Dr. Sengbush does not like publicity.

I have been scrupulous in referring to the good Professor only in passing, and now you come along and blow his cover.

Dr. Sengbush is an almost unknown figure in the world of handicapping. He has assiduously guarded his privacy....(That's o.k., I forgive you- this time)

But, in fact, he is a giant in the handicapping field. He is the clever mind behind Multi-Strats(along with Curtis Martin). I use his brilliant algorithms daily, in handicapping and maintaining my models.

Curt will never comment on PA- and it's too bad he won't- because he could regale us all with interesting accounts of how Dr. Sengbush developed his insights into effective handicapping.

The sad thing is that with the collapse of Exco., Inc.- the company which owned the Multi-Strats source code, there was no money- and no corporate entity to enable the good Professor to carry out his planned revision and expansion of Multi-Strats.

Anyone who has seen the document laying out Dr. Sengbush's plans for Multi-Strats was just blown away by it. Talk about a scientist with a subtle mind... I know Dave would have enjoyed meeting him.

VetScratch, I was just teasing you. You're still the greatest!

All The Best,

Jaguar

[VetScratch]

Jaguar,
The sad thing is that with the collapse of Exco., Inc.- the company which owned the Multi-Strats source code, there was no money- and no corporate entity to enable the good Professor to carry out his planned revision and expansion of Multi-Strats.Who had the foresight to name Exco, Inc?

[Jaguar]

A humorous insight, VetScratch... as usual. You do have a good mind.

All The Best,

Jaguar

[VetScratch]

Jaguar,

Yes, I thought the name Exco was a humorous coincidence.

However, Dr. Sengbush has my utmost respect, and I would love to read more about his handicapping concepts and algorithms.

His work is truly groudbreaking stuff. When I finished reading "Seismic Impact On Speed," I was excited to the point of awestruck trembling! My hands were literally shaking!

Without tipping off his whereabouts, can you confirm that he is still alive?

[GameTheory]

RL Sengbush is dead.

[VetScratch]

That is sad news.

[GameTheory]

He died in the late 80's -- is that the right guy?

[VetScratch]

That seems a bit too early because I think that precedes the Multi-Strats revision plans that Jaguar referenced. And if we pursue this much further, then poof goes the spoof!:)

[VetScratch]

In any case, the real story behind the Multi-Strats demise was that Bill Parcells made Curtis Martin stop fiddling with it... earning Parcells everlasting gratitude from Jets' fans!

[GameTheory]

Ray L. Sengbush, "the seismic guy" of the Colorado School of Mines, author of books on petroleum exploration and seismology, died in 1989 of cancer. Some of his books were published in the 50's, so I assume he was not a young man.

Whether he is the same guy that is responsible for Multi-strats I don't know, but it doesn't seem likely since that program was around just a few years ago. Maybe his son? Maybe he is *really* private as Jaguar suggests and reports of his death were false?

[Jaguar]

Game Theory is correct, Dr. Sengbush passed away before he was able to make the wonderful contribution to handicapping that he had planned.

I just consider that we are lucky to have the tools that he left us.

Unlike quite a few scientists and engineers who have taken a shot at handicapping, Dr. Sengbush, as some of us may know, did not just have an academic interest in "solving the puzzle".

Rather, he had the strong motivation to win money today. In other words, he was not only a brilliant scientist, but he was also that rare bird, a serious handicapper.

Happily, Prof. Sengbush's place of honor in the history of handicapping is secure.

All The Best,

Jaguar

[VetScratch]

I hope he someday gets the recognition he deserves. We don't have an official Handicappers' Hall of Fame, but something should be done to immortalize pioneers like Sengbush.

One way we might memorialize the Great Ones is to name each of the 25 algorithm discs after one them. With your connections, I bet you could round up enough Sengbush votes to put him into the top twenty-five names.

Instead of,

"Please insert Algorithm #22 disc..."

we might someday see,

"Please insert the Sengbush algorithm disc..."

=================================
Jaguar (08/08/2003):
VetScratch, you just did a no-no. Dr. Sengbush does not like publicity. I have been scrupulous in referring to the good Professor only in passing, and now you come along and blow his cover.You must have been one first to learn of his tragic death. When is the funeral planned?

[Jaguar]

VetScratch, you are right, there should be a Handicapper's Hall of Fame. Otherwise, the great contributors will go unrecognized as the generations pass.

Along with the good Professor, I would nominate Dick Schmidt(what a body of work he can list on his resume), Dave Schwartz(the first "modern" handicapper and an innovator with a first rate mind. Dave has never really been recognized for the brilliance of Thorobrain).

Dr. Sengbush passed away some years ago, but I try- in a small way- to tell folks of his wonderful insights into effective handicapping, and to spread the word concerning the huge and powerful program he was planning.

The chart in which Prof. Sengbush detailed his intended "magnum opus" is a fascinating treasure. In this incredibly detailed and artfully crafted document. we see a very comprehensive scientific scheme- in which every conceivable aspect of handicapping was integrated into a unified program.

Moreover, Dr. Sengbush planned to combine his favorite expert system algorithms with neural nets, in order to analyze and to weigh a wide variety of criteria which had hitherto never been examined in one handicapping program.

Suddenly we would have the power and certainty of proven expert systems formulas, enhanced by the "fuzzy logic" pattern-recognition capability of neural nets. Unbelievable subtlety and handicapping accuracy.

Had Dr. Sengbush lived to fulfill his new program, I would be living in my villa on Lake Como, in Italy- surrounded by 23-year-old starlets, telling them: "Of course you may have those diamond earrings you saw at the jeweler in the Hotel Villa D'Este,
my darlings. You may buy them tomorrow. But, right now, let's snuggle by the pool."

It is not too much to say that personally, the fact that Prof. Sengbush's disc will never enter my PC's floppy drive, is as great a disappointment as is the fact of the Brooklyn Dodgers' loss in the 1956 World Series.

- A shattering disappointment, from which I- and many others- have never really recovered. We, the "walking wounded" have somehow managed to go on in life, bearing invisible scars.

All The Best,

Jaguar

[CapperLou]

Jaguar:
One of the most beautiful places I've ever been to--thanks to my parents taking me with them in early 60's--what a place.
Have been back there once--now it's a fortune!!!

All the best,


CapperLou

[VetScratch]

Jaguar:

Well done! I can't top that, so EOT (no... not end-of-transmission, but end-of-thread)!

Good luck, Jaguar, and keep your discs dry! :) :) :) :)

Had Dr. Sengbush lived to fulfill his new program, I would be living in my villa on Lake Como, in Italy- surrounded by 23-year-old starlets, telling them: "Of course you may have those diamond earrings you saw at the jeweler in the Hotel Villa D'Este, my darlings. You may buy them tomorrow. But, right now, let's snuggle by the pool." I surmise you are also chummy with Gore Vidal or at least aspired to be his neighbor. :)


===========================================
PA Members:
I have emailed Jaguar a copy of "Seismic Impact on Speed" as well as Sengbush's draft notes about sunspots and equine circadian rhthyms. Whether he will share them with Dick and Dave or wait to present them at the next International Conclave of Beta Testers is up to him.

[Jaguar]

Lou, you do have good taste!

VetScratch, thanks for the generous words and the mailings. They will be great to have in my handicapping trove of little treasures, along with the final edition of Turf and Sport Digest, a wonderful racing magazine, which couldn't make it past the mid-'80's.

Let us all dine together one day, on the patio at Villa D'este looking out on the lake, as the sun slowly sets and those marvelous lamps are lit. But first, we have to win a big trifecta, because we can't pay the dinner bill with potato chips.

All The Best,

Jaguar

[PaceAdvantage]

Is it just me??? Really, it can't be just me can it???????

[VetScratch]

Originally posted by VetScratch
Handicapping Discs?

Where did this curious description get started?

To my knowledge, no one who actually develops software claims to be writing an <app-name> disc.

When posters start discussing the attributes of various handicapping discs, isn't it safe to assume that they probably could not write a functional "Hello World" disc?
Originally posted by PaceAdvantage
No
===========================
Originally posted by PaceAdvantage
Is it just me??? Really, it can't be just me can it???????

No, Boss, I'm right with you... beginning to wonder myself! :)

[Jaguar]

The term "floppy" could also be used, but since technology is migrating to CDs(which are a form of "disc") and since it appears inevitable that before too long PCs will be shipped sans floppy drives, it occurred to me that the word "disc" is a bit more comprehensive and possibly allows a smooth segue into a "CDs only" future.

All The Best,

Jaguar

P.S. Answer to the question "How many bits can fit on the new CD media undergoing research and development?"

"Just as many as Bill Gates wants."