Who Wins

[Space Monkey]

Quality Road, Rachel Alexandra, Zenyatta

[HuggingTheRail]

the correct answer is

d) fans of horse racing

[PaceAdvantage]

Believe it or not, I did not vote for Rachel Alexandra. I suppose a certain someone is going to tell my I lied here too...

[broadreach]

surface?

[Valuist]

Not just surface but track also. Nobody alive now beats Quality Road at Gulfstream. Same with Zenyatta on synthetic.

[Bobzilla]

A virtually impossible question to answer without knowing important variables such as field composition; relative post positions; likely pace scenario; likely tactics; respective positioning within form cycle; surface category or more specifically the actual track; etc.,etc. All variables would have to be weighed accodingly against the backdrop of the races entire complexion. I don't know if any of the three are so much better than the other two as to be able to overcome any negative factors.

I think a thorough analyst would probably recognize the talent of all three and would probably envision any number of scenarios for each of them that might be to that performer's competitive advantage, if the analyst were to fairly assess their chances without any bias or preconceived notion.

My own opinion is that if Summer Bird were still in training he might be more adaptable than the listed three to the majority of possible variable combinations, provided the race was on a traditional dirt surface and with the given distance of 10f. Unfortunately he is no longer in training.

It will be interesting to see if Blame can continue to develop and if so, what level of performance could he reach if he were to cycle up as the year progresses. He may not be in their league now but he may get closer before the end of the year, especially if the other three show signs of form regression. It will also be interesting to see if Mine That Bird can build on the degree of talent he hinted at during last year's Triple Crown series provided he can get deeper into a form cycle while competing on traditional dirt and under the training of Hall of Famer D. Wayne Lukas.

If the race were today, 10f on dirt, and assuming no quicker than a moderate pace for G1 competition, I might give a slight edge to QR but I would not at all be surprised if RA would pull it off, especially if she enjoyed a better trip. Zen may be better suited to the distance than the other two which might make it close, but in my estimation the other two would have an obvious strategic advantage given moderate fractions and one of them would be likely to out-explode their rival off of the moderate fractions. The ability to close into a slow or moderate pace from far back might prove to be considerably more difficult on a dirt surface, especially when QR and RA are two of the competitors waiting to move while being more forward. As of today, slight edge to QR, only because what I would predict rider tactics to be. I'm not sure to what degree the time to the 3/4 would have to be on the fast side before this seesaw would shift dramatically in Zen's favor. At 10 furlongs maybe not that much.

[bisket]

i voted for seabiscuit.

[Bruddah]

1 1/4m = a toss up none of them are 1 1/4m horses Whoever can stagger to the line first while puking the bit.

1 3/16m = Dead heat Rachel Alexandra has beaten the best 3yo males at the distance or Zenyatta added distance compliments her closing ability

1 1/8m = Quality Road maximum/ best distance for him.

1 1/16m = Rachel Alexandra running style closer to the front and best turn
of foot at shorter distance

As always just my humble handicapping opinion. (JMHHO) :ThmbUp:

[bisket]

i think with both quality road and rachel in the same race the pace is most likely to be fast. especially if rachel has an inside post!

[Space Monkey]

1 1/4m = a toss up none of them are 1 1/4m horses Whoever can stagger to the line first while puking the bit.

First, my apologies for not keeping up with my own thread.

Bruddah, I can understand people saying that any one of the 3 could beat the other 2. RA gets to set a moderate pace, wins. QR sits off her and wins the stretch run. Z's late kick passes them both, but to say that Z is not a 1 1/4 horse is insane. I do have questions about QR and RA getting the distance, but not Z. If she lost, it would be because her late kick would fall short. Your handicapping credibility takes a hit with your last post IMO.

[Space Monkey]

Considering this is the last go around for these horses, the race would be on dirt at CD in Nov.

[Space Monkey]

So biskit, who wins? Sounds like your vote is for the lady from Cal.

[Space Monkey]

I suppose a certain someone is going to tell my I lied here too...

?????

[Hanover1]

A virtually impossible question to answer without knowing important variables such as field composition; relative post positions; likely pace scenario; likely tactics; respective positioning within form cycle; surface category or more specifically the actual track; etc.,etc. All variables would have to be weighed accodingly against the backdrop of the races entire complexion. I don't know if any of the three are so much better than the other two as to be able to overcome any negative factors.

I think a thorough analyst would probably recognize the talent of all three and would probably envision any number of scenarios for each of them that might be to that performer's competitive advantage, if the analyst were to fairly assess their chances without any bias or preconceived notion.

My own opinion is that if Summer Bird were still in training he might be more adaptable than the listed three to the majority of possible variable combinations, provided the race was on a traditional dirt surface and with the given distance of 10f. Unfortunately he is no longer in training.

It will be interesting to see if Blame can continue to develop and if so, what level of performance could he reach if he were to cycle up as the year progresses. He may not be in their league now but he may get closer before the end of the year, especially if the other three show signs of form regression. It will also be interesting to see if Mine That Bird can build on the degree of talent he hinted at during last year's Triple Crown series provided he can get deeper into a form cycle while competing on traditional dirt and under the training of Hall of Famer D. Wayne Lukas.

If the race were today, 10f on dirt, and assuming no quicker than a moderate pace for G1 competition, I might give a slight edge to QR but I would not at all be surprised if RA would pull it off, especially if she enjoyed a better trip. Zen may be better suited to the distance than the other two which might make it close, but in my estimation the other two would have an obvious strategic advantage given moderate fractions and one of them would be likely to out-explode their rival off of the moderate fractions. The ability to close into a slow or moderate pace from far back might prove to be considerably more difficult on a dirt surface, especially when QR and RA are two of the competitors waiting to move while being more forward. As of today, slight edge to QR, only because what I would predict rider tactics to be. I'm not sure to what degree the time to the 3/4 would have to be on the fast side before this seesaw would shift dramatically in Zen's favor. At 10 furlongs maybe not that much.


He wasted no time making his choice.........

[bisket]

So biskit, who wins? Sounds like your vote is for the lady from Cal.
i don't think either quality road or rachel want any parts of a 1 1/4 mile race. it doesn't suprise me that many handicappers that live and die with speed figures don't understand this. they simply look at beyer's speed chart for raw figures and believe if a horse can run 1 1/8 mile at 147 on a given surface on a given day that the same horse can run 1 1/4 mile on that same surface on that same day in 2:00 because the chart says so.

well this is a fantasy. horses have distance limitations and most winners at 1 1/8 mile are lucky to stay in the super at 1 1/4 mile. while many horses that finish a solid second continously at 1 1/8 mile are a better bet at 1 1/4 mile than a speed horse like quality and rachel.

now when it comes to zen she could take the other two at both 1 1/8 mile and 1 1/4 mile. i don't see any predictions at all from the damater can club :liar: maybe they know they are full of it like most of us already do.

[cj]

i don't think either quality road or rachel want any parts of a 1 1/4 mile race. it doesn't suprise me that many handicappers that live and die with speed figures don't understand this. they simply look at beyer's speed chart for raw figures and believe if a horse can run 1 1/8 mile at 147 on a given surface on a given day that the same horse can run 1 1/4 mile on that same surface on that same day in 2:00 because the chart says so.

well this is a fantasy. horses have distance limitations and most winners at 1 1/8 mile are lucky to stay in the super at 1 1/4 mile. while many horses that finish a solid second continously at 1 1/8 mile are a better bet at 1 1/4 mile than a speed horse like quality and rachel.

now when it comes to zen she could take the other two at both 1 1/8 mile and 1 1/4 mile. i don't see any predictions at all from the damater can club :liar: maybe they know they are full of it like most of us already do.

The real fantasy is that you believe this is how those who use speed figures think. Good luck with dat...

[PaceAdvantage]

...most winners at 1 1/8 mile are lucky to stay in the super at 1 1/4 mile.I'll ask the obvious question:

Huh?

[Trotman]

bisket in your fantasy world, do you cash many tickets,or even the odd ticket? :confused:

[bisket]

The real fantasy is that you believe this is how those who use speed figures think. Good luck with dat...
on the very few occassions you have posted an opinion on a race this method is what is most evident in your choices. whether you realize it or not!! i know, i know, you can put anything in a computer program.....


look at my redboard in the selections forum. thats real handicapping!! there was no bias at sant anita this winter???

[bisket]

da bisket redboard
http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/showthread.php?t=68526

[Cratos]

Quality Road, Rachel Alexandra, Zenyatta

Assuming this is a full field (10 horses or more) including Rachel, Zenyatta, and Quality Road and it is a dry dirt track I would wager on Quality Road with Zenyatta getting up for a distance second.

Why? Rache would come into the race never having beaten any horse or ever run at the 1 ¼ mile distance in a graded or a non-graded level race.

Zenyatta have won impressively at the 1 ¼ mile distance in the G1 BC Classic, but it was on synthetics and she didn’t have the speed of either Rachel or Quality Road in the race.

Quality Road has gone the distance of 1 ¼ miles twice in the JCGC and the Travers in which he finished 2nd and 3rd respectively and I don’t believe either time he was at the top of his game.

But now I think that he is in top form and I don’t see either Rachel or Zenyatta not only not beating him, but not even threatening him for the win.