Zenyatta slightly below 2009 so far

[gm10]

I gave her an 85 yesterday, following 83 83 earlier this year.

Her Classic win was 87, her victory in the Vanity 2009 was a 92.
A bit more worryingly, her LATE figures have dropped from an astonishing 98/97/100/98 last year to 90/91/92 this year. My honest opinion: she is starting to feel the wear and tear in her fourth consecutive campaign and should be rested over the summer.

As far as I know, the BSF aren't out yet, but I would expect Zenyatta to get 100-102.

[BluegrassProf]

My honest opinion: she is starting to feel the wear and tear in her fourth consecutive campaign and should be rested over the summer.Wear & tear? Fourth consecutive campaign? Rested over the summer?

My man, we differ in opinion so greatly, it's flabbergasting. :D


At this point, it's comic. What a wonderful game this is. :ThmbUp:

[gm10]

Wear & tear? Fourth consecutive campaign? Rested over the summer?

My man, we differ in opinion so greatly, it's flabbergasting. :D


At this point, it's comic. What a wonderful game this is. :ThmbUp:

I'm very interested in why we would differ so greatly in opinion as I must admit I am not 100% sure about my own conclusion - so please clarify your comment.

[PaceAdvantage]

I gave her an 85 yesterday, following 83 83 earlier this year.

Her Classic win was 87, her victory in the Vanity 2009 was a 92.
A bit more worryingly, her LATE figures have dropped from an astonishing 98/97/100/98 last year to 90/91/92 this year. My honest opinion: she is starting to feel the wear and tear in her fourth consecutive campaign and should be rested over the summer.

As far as I know, the BSF aren't out yet, but I would expect Zenyatta to get 100-102.Good thing I didn't write the above. I'd be accused of Zenyatta bashing/hating.

[gm10]

Good thing I didn't write the above. I'd be accused of Zenyatta bashing/hating.

Ah but you have displayed suspect levels of objectivity in the very recent past ;) .

[cj]

It would be nice if people knew something about these figures or had seen them in action. Otherwise, these threads are pretty silly.

That said, I already said the same thing. Her races this year, even late, are not particularly inspiring. I don't think she is the same horse any longer. I'm being honest, not trying to rile everyone up.

[BluegrassProf]

I'm very interested in why we would differ so greatly in opinion as I must admit I am not 100% sure about my own conclusion - so please clarify your comment.It's not the conclusion, it's the way you're getting there. Comes down to the issues I noted above:

Zenyatta is relatively lightly raced, almost exclusively at home - this is both painfully obvious to most and a major point of contention, and there's no need to enter yet another back/forth on the point - in just over three campaigns (if you consider her 3yo season a campaign, even moreso a grueling campaign, heck, more power to ya!). The "wear and tear" of her seasons is relative: many horses (yes, even top-tier horses, all to remain unnamed) race the same number of matches in half the time. If there's an issue - and like yourself, I'm not sure there is - grueling campaigns is just about the last place to heap blame.

Regarding the rest & respite: she's had essentially three prep starts this season...with all the talk of history, the last darned thing you should want it is for Team Z to - again - tiptoe for a year and hang their hat on the BC. That's cheap, for both Zenyatta and the history of this extraordinary sport. Zenyatta NEEDS to claim what so many think is rightfully hers...why would anyone fight tooth & nail to deny it from her? It's disgraceful! Let her shine! Fight for history, damn it; don't expect it to land on your head!

Seriously, my man. It's all fine and good. Disagreement is the spice of life. ;) :ThmbUp:

[Rackon]

It would be nice if people knew something about these figures or had seen them in action. Otherwise, these threads are pretty silly.

That said, I already said the same thing. Her races this year, even late, are not particularly inspiring. I don't think she is the same horse any longer. I'm being honest, not trying to rile everyone up.

Her most recent works were on the slow side for her. But she looked plenty game - and tough enough - in action yesterday.

I don't think she's up to her best '09 form (YET)

But her two previous races certainly weren't going to do much for her. I actually think she needed this race.

If your ultimate goal is the BCC almost 5 months away, you don't want to tighten the screws too hard this early. If there are no physical problems, she stays sound, and her attitude stays the same, odds are good Shirreffs gets Zenyatta where she needs to be by BC.

[Steve R]

I gave her an 85 yesterday, following 83 83 earlier this year.

Her Classic win was 87, her victory in the Vanity 2009 was a 92.
A bit more worryingly, her LATE figures have dropped from an astonishing 98/97/100/98 last year to 90/91/92 this year. My honest opinion: she is starting to feel the wear and tear in her fourth consecutive campaign and should be rested over the summer.

As far as I know, the BSF aren't out yet, but I would expect Zenyatta to get 100-102.
I've actually got her about three parts of a length better than last year.

[Dahoss9698]

It would be nice if people knew something about these figures or had seen them in action.

I'm sure one of his customers will come forward and explain the figures.

[cj's dad]

I'm sure one of his customers will come forward and explain the figures.

They work - NEXT QUESTION !!

[Dahoss9698]

They work - NEXT QUESTION !!

You use gm10's figures?

[ronsmac]

I gave her an 85 yesterday, following 83 83 earlier this year.

Her Classic win was 87, her victory in the Vanity 2009 was a 92.
A bit more worryingly, her LATE figures have dropped from an astonishing 98/97/100/98 last year to 90/91/92 this year. My honest opinion: she is starting to feel the wear and tear in her fourth consecutive campaign and should be rested over the summer.

As far as I know, the BSF aren't out yet, but I would expect Zenyatta to get 100-102.
She did run the last 1/8 in approx 11 3/5ths that's serious race horse time in a 1 1/8th race.

[gm10]

It would be nice if people knew something about these figures or had seen them in action. Otherwise, these threads are pretty silly.

That said, I already said the same thing. Her races this year, even late, are not particularly inspiring. I don't think she is the same horse any longer. I'm being honest, not trying to rile everyone up.

They can see them in action every day if they want to, plenty of free races to choose from.

You may have said the same, apologies for repeating it, but I'm not sure if you mentioned that drop in LATE speed. That is so crucial imo. It's her killer weapon. Quite a few horses can finish with a 90, but none bar the great can run 98-100 every time AND still win races. That is something which I've never seen. Even on the turf, horses who flash a 95 in the final 2F will often get beaten.

In fact, I can honestly say that Zenyatta has redefined my speed figure making skills. I used to get pretty low numbers for her, although I already took fractions as well as final time into account. And they are used intelligently, too, not just an average of the ratings for each section of the race.

Then I started discovering some things about how the very best horses run and I realized that just choosing the same linear scale as we do for 99.9% of the horses is not only misleading, it is plain wrong. Simply put, it's no longer X number of points per length. And that applies to each fraction.

I'm sure other speed figure makers have discovered the same, but the BSF team have been barking up the wrong tree with it.

[gm10]

I've actually got her about three parts of a length better than last year.

Hmmm interesting. How do you handle weight? I can't remember exactly but I think she carried a bit more this year.
The time was almost a second slower than last year's Vanity if that's what you're comparing with. Not sure how you can rate her higher unless your DTV are very different.

[gm10]

It's not the conclusion, it's the way you're getting there. Comes down to the issues I noted above:

Zenyatta is relatively lightly raced, almost exclusively at home - this is both painfully obvious to most and a major point of contention, and there's no need to enter yet another back/forth on the point - in just over three campaigns (if you consider her 3yo season a campaign, even moreso a grueling campaign, heck, more power to ya!). The "wear and tear" of her seasons is relative: many horses (yes, even top-tier horses, all to remain unnamed) race the same number of matches in half the time. If there's an issue - and like yourself, I'm not sure there is - grueling campaigns is just about the last place to heap blame.

Regarding the rest & respite: she's had essentially three prep starts this season...with all the talk of history, the last darned thing you should want it is for Team Z to - again - tiptoe for a year and hang their hat on the BC. That's cheap, for both Zenyatta and the history of this extraordinary sport. Zenyatta NEEDS to claim what so many think is rightfully hers...why would anyone fight tooth & nail to deny it from her? It's disgraceful! Let her shine! Fight for history, damn it; don't expect it to land on your head!

Seriously, my man. It's all fine and good. Disagreement is the spice of life. ;) :ThmbUp:

I don't think Zenyatta could handle a career of 40 races tbh. Every races takes a lot out of her, mentally more than physically perhaps. I even read the other day that those little things she does before the races may look cute and endearing, but their are crucial to not getting her completely worked up. When she travels, she is dehydrated for a week. I don't think we'll see Zenyatta for much longer - my honest opinion.

[FenceBored]

Hmmm interesting. How do you handle weight? I can't remember exactly but I think she carried a bit more this year.
The time was almost a second slower than last year's Vanity if that's what you're comparing with. Not sure how you can rate her higher unless your DTV are very different.

Zenyatta's impost for the 2010 Vanity was exactly the same as her 2009 Vanity impost.

[gm10]

Zenyatta's impost for the 2010 Vanity was exactly the same as her 2009 Vanity impost.

ah OK I thought it was 126lbs but couldn't look it up

I'm still genuinely wondering how she could have a higher speed figure for this than last year. Steve R?

[cj's dad]

You use gm10's figures?

I misread post #10.

[Cratos]

I gave her an 85 yesterday, following 83 83 earlier this year.

Her Classic win was 87, her victory in the Vanity 2009 was a 92.
A bit more worryingly, her LATE figures have dropped from an astonishing 98/97/100/98 last year to 90/91/92 this year. My honest opinion: she is starting to feel the wear and tear in her fourth consecutive campaign and should be rested over the summer.

As far as I know, the BSF aren't out yet, but I would expect Zenyatta to get 100-102.

GM, I agree that Zenyatta appears to be a step behind her Vanity performance of last year in this year’s Vanity.

However I had noted in another thread that she might be less than stellar coming into this year’s Vanity moving from dirt back to the synthetic, but her last eighth mile of the Vanity in 11.605 seconds said to me that she hasn’t lost a step of her incredible late race acceleration.

Therefore if her trainer can bring her back to last year’s form by the time of the BC Classic, she will have an advantage she never had in the past; the nearly ¼ mile stretch at Churchill Downs to accelerate her late kick.

[gm10]

GM, I agree that Zenyatta appears to be a step behind her Vanity performance of last year in this year’s Vanity.

However I had noted in another thread that she might be less than stellar coming into this year’s Vanity moving from dirt back to the synthetic, but her last eighth mile of the Vanity in 11.605 seconds said to me that she hasn’t lost a step of her incredible late race acceleration.

Therefore if her trainer can bring her back to last year’s form by the time of the BC Classic, she will have an advantage she never had in the past; the nearly ¼ mile stretch at Churchill Downs to accelerate her late kick.

mmmm yes that was a fast final furlong
I hope you're right

[Tom]

Fast, but how fast?
Here is what I have for 1-1/8 races at HOL, December 2006 through the Vanity. I used 1/5 per beaten length for sake of discussion.


10-Dec-06 9 11.96
29-Apr-07 9 13.57
19-May-07 6 12.88
26-May-07 8 12.62
02-Jun-07 8 13.04
15-Jun-07 7 12.37
16-Jun-07 2 12.16
02-Jul-07 3 12.84
07-Jul-07 3 12.11
14-Jul-07 8 12.56
11-Nov-07 3 12.67
08-Dec-07 9 11.63
21-Dec-07 6 11.92
27-Apr-08 9 12.77
30-Apr-08 4 12.19
01-May-08 8 12.48
24-May-08 2 12.73
25-May-08 1 12.67
26-May-08 4 11.64
26-May-08 8 12.06
31-May-08 8 11.81
05-Jul-08 5 13.54
12-Jul-08 8 13.18
26-Nov-08 1 12.18
06-Dec-08 6 12.60
25-Apr-09 9 12.93
13-Jun-09 9 12.52
27-Jun-09 4 12.11
04-Jul-09 9 12.97
04-Jul-09 4 12.56
12-Jul-091013.34
18-Jul-09 8 12.19
12-Dec-09 7 12.96
24-Apr-10 6 13.42
13-May-10 4 12.39
09-Jun-10 1 13.07
10-Jun-10 8 12.41
12-Jun-10 9 12.87
13-Jun-10 8 11.53

[gm10]

Fast, but how fast?
Here is what I have for 1-1/8 races at HOL, December 2006 through the Vanity. I used 1/5 per beaten length for sake of discussion.

I found only three races with faster final furlongs since the synthetic was installed (two were won by Heatseeker).