WHO COULD FIGURE ????

[WINMANWIN]

How many times during the past years, do we read, or hear, a trainer say "I didnt have the horse fully cranked" Today I heard barclay tagg say that funny cide is 90 % ready for tomorrow's haskell. I read in the drf form today that posse is not fully cranked and trainer asmussin is pointing towards another race this toga meet. Dont get me wrong, I like the info, but are they telling me, that the exercise riders are not letting there charges workout properly and saving something for the race they want to WIN ??? As a player, The info is good. But when 1 seriously thinks about the strategies of trainers and jocks, The public thinks EVERY STEED has an equal chance to WIn in a given race, But the inside scoop to the Niave player is SORRY PAL, your steed is just prepping today, You can rip up your ticket NOW !!!! before the gate OPEN'S, CAUSE the jock and trainer are gonna try and win NEXT MTH'S RACE !!!:rolleyes:

[andicap]

That's part of the handicapping process in my opinion.

Do tennis players try as hard at the Des Moines Open as they do at the U.S. Open
Does Tiger Woods concentrate as hard and practice as hard for the Greensboro Open as he does for the Masters?

Does Pedro Martinez get up for and compete as hard against Tampa Bay as he would against the Yankees? (OK, maybe)

no athlete equine or human can give 100% every time out. It's phyiscally impossible.

You don't think Shaq takes a few games off in January?

You cant keep a horse primed at 100% for every race -- there's no way. That's way they are called form cycles.

A smart handicapper would know the Travers is FC's real objective and Tagg doesn't want to in the words of Horatio Luro "squeeze the lemon too hard" on Sunday.

[Handy Cap]

Yes, that is a part of horse racing. But is it fair to the public? Especially in cheap claimings when the intent of the trainer is not known. Can this be part of the reason horse racing is losing out to the slots and the boats?

[Show Me the Wire]

Originally posted by Handy Cap
Yes, that is a part of horse racing. But is it fair to the public? Especially in cheap claimings when the intent of the trainer is not known. Can this be part of the reason horse racing is losing out to the slots and the boats?

What can be more fair? Horses are not machines, contrary to the public's perception. Horses are fragile living animals, whose physical condition changes almost daily. Finding the fit well-meant horse is the game. Yes, people may be attracted to slots becuase pushing a button on a machine does not require much analysis.

Analysis is handicapping and a well versed handicapper should understand how to recognize trainer intent through the various factors that are related to a well-meant horse.

The trainer is at the mercy of the horse's physical condition and can only make the horse fit enough as the horse's physical condition allows in the time period leading up to the race. There are shortcuts to make a horse physically better like using pain masking drugs, pain masking treatment or using performance enhancing drugs. However, when thes shortcuts are used the handicappers yell about "juice" trainers. Actualy, if someone believes a specific trainer is a "juice" trainer the question of intent and ft racing condition is already answered for the handicapper.

It is not a question of fairness to the public, it is a question of limitations placed on the connections in preparing a living animal to perform athletically through the animals ailments, soreness, lameness, infections, colds, traits, etc.

Regards,
Show Me the Wire

Perception is reality

[freeneasy]

i suppose that with enough exerciseing and training every horse can sooner or later be brought up to a race on works alone. but some races are just for the purposes of acclimating a horse to a new distance or a tougher class or reacclimating a horse into the competitive enviroment that will demand his excelence. its fair

[Handy Cap]

Show, point well taken...

The general public...in other words, the every day common joe that this sport needs to attract in order to grow, is not experienced enough to be able to sort through facts and figures to figure out trainer intent. So in order to be fair to everyone..let me rephrase that...in order to be fair to the people that horse racing needs once again to prosper...whats the solution to the problem.

How about trainers state their intent before the race verbally?
How about every equipment change and adjustment.gets posted.
How about trainers comments after every race...right by the chart writers comments in the form, you find trainers and maybe even jockeys comments?
How about reasons straight from the horses and owners mouths about why a horse took a long layoff, and those reasons printed in the form.

The question to me is this...does the every day common Joe have enough information to pick winners? My answer is no because nine out of ten times, trainer intent is simply not clear.

[Show Me the Wire]

If you listened to trainers and owners you would lose more than your fair share. The majority of trainers are poor handicappers.

A helpful hint look for the trainers with the best winning percentages, with multiple horse wins, as these are the ones that place their horses in more appropriate spots. Discount trainers with low winning percentages, even if the intent is there, except if the low percentage trainer has won with this specific horse.

Anyway, if trainers told you their intent and assuming thier handicapping skills were good, you would receive no odds. Remember, this is a parimutuel game. If everyone had the same information or perspective there would be gains to be made. For someone to win, there has to be losers to fund the winner.

Regards,
Show Me the Wire

Perception is reality

[Handy Cap]

you bring up some very valid points Show..

[Suff]

This is close enough to your topic Joe that I'll get it off my Chest.

Zavat Prepped for the GRADE 2 Amsterdam in a 40k Claimer!! But it was one of those Optional claimers so it was'nt a claimer right? It was an allowance race with Claiming conditions.. But with no risk of being claimed.

These races are a Joke and Killing racing.

How can a horse with 7 lifetime races...

all 7 excluding the MDSPWT race were STAKES or Graded trys. Except a Big 56K Money allowance...

No way on Gods green earth should this horse be able to drop into a 40K Claiming prep....with no Downside.



Optional claimers and Claiming purses in General are Hurting racing.

When you can easily find a 40K spot for a purse snatch or a prep race it provides no incentive to Improve your horse on the TRAINING TRACK.

The track and the Bettors pay for that days excercise ride.

[VetScratch]

Sufferindowns,
Optional claimers and Claiming purses in General are Hurting racing.
About optional claiming:

I would agree with respect to major tracks that should have a sizeable population of allowance/stakes horses that have exhausted their non-winner conditions but can still fill $-conditioned allowances.

However, at mid/minor ovals, $-conditioned allowances seldom get written because they just don't fill. As a result, horsemen who bring stakes horses to a race meeting take the weight penalties and run in optional claimers. The alternative is shipping to another track or sitting in the barn for weeks/months.

[VetScratch]

Handy Cap,
Yes, that is a part of horse racing. But is it fair to the public? Especially in cheap claimings when the intent of the trainer is not known. Can this be part of the reason horse racing is losing out to the slots and the boats?
I think trainer intent gets too much emphasis simply because most cheap races are lost rather than won. Good intentions cannot ensure that a myriad of patched-up problems won't resurface after they spring the gate for a cheap bunch.

[Tuffmug]

Think of racing as a poker game. It's your job as a handicapper to figure out which trainer is bluffing and which one has the cards!

Poker and Horse racing are games of skill.

[Show Me the Wire]

Originally posted by VetScratch
Handy Cap,

I think trainer intent gets too much emphasis simply because most cheap races are lost rather than won. Good intentions cannot ensure that a myriad of patched-up problems won't resurface after they spring the gate for a cheap bunch.

VetScratch:

I disagree and agree at the same time. Agree good intentions cannot ensure a win and disagree with the statement trainer intent gets too much emphasis.

How can you emphasis something too much if it is a very important element. Generally, a horse is not going to win (I said generally) if the trainer does not have the intent to win the race. By definition trainer intent is the first important factor.
Without it you are a loser.

However, the statement about good intentions goes to competence. Maybe not enough attention is paid to trainers' aptitude or over confidence.

What say you?

Everyone else (you know who you are):

I would like to amend my original response (in a different thread) to say I believe speed ratings dead heating with workouts are the most over-rated factors beating class pars by a nose for the top honors.

Regards,
Show Me the Wire

Perception is reality

[VetScratch]

SMTW,

I believe too many players blame losses on lack of good intentions. Good trainers run them where they belong, and they enter races with good intentions.

After a race fills, good trainers don't abandon hope because they are in a little tough, and no good trainer gets overly confident when a race looks easy.

I simply don't buy the cynical view that intentions before the race match up with results at the wire, as if only one or two barns came to win. Few races fill with more than a couple of horses that merely are out for excercise.

If poker is your analogy, I think good trainers seldom run unless they figure to make it past the "flop." What happens on the "turn" and the "river" determines the outcome, where the former is the "misfortune" of others and the latter is good fortune where things go your way for change.

[Tom]

I love these races - they have allowance conditons for horses not entered to be claimed. The puzzle is to figure out is this an allowance or a claiming race? You get good prices an som eof these. You can't just drop a hore into one of these - you have to go for the tag or meet the conditions of eligibility. If nothing fits the conditoins really well, you have a claimer and handicap it as such. If a lightly raced young horse who fits the conditions goes up against a multipe winner of claimers, give me the young horse with a couple of wins who is moving ahead smartly every time.