An Old Topic Revisied: The Pick 3

[Maverick58034]

Hey all,

First, I want to thank you all for the great input you have given on countless racing topics, including Pick 3 strategy. I did a search and found some pretty lengthy discussion on the topic, which has been very helpful thus far. This is sort of a stream-of-consciousness post with some questions mixed in - any advice you all could give would be great!

I started this topic, at least in part, to obtain an update - to see if general attitudes, opinions, and strategies have evolved over the last few years.

The reason this comes to the front burner for me stems from a recent examination of my wagering logs. It's been a bit of an odd problem lately, and maybe you all could give some advice and diagnose the problem.

My "bread and butter" bet is still playing to win or win-place (odds-depending), and I do "alright" in that capacity. I noticed not too long ago that I was having an abnormally high number of second choice horses winning, typically at a good price (> 3-1). So then, I shifted my playing to include exactas, generally doing an A-B / A-B-C type structure (along with some win bets). Of course, you can imagine what started happening: I was getting some good price on top, but not hitting the second spot (or having third choice win overall, at even better odds). Now I'm in a bit of a betting-purgatory, if you will.

For one reason or another, my knee-jerk reaction was to move to the Pick 3. I began wondering if my handicapping style was maybe just better suited to that particular bet. As fate would have it, I hit a pretty nice Pick 3 immediately after shifting this strategy, but then went back to wins and exactas and promptly returned the money to other bettors. Old habits die hard.

I very much want to begin incorporating, and possibly basing my general wagering, on Pick 3s. After some rough calculations, it seems that the payout is typically greater (many times significantly greater) than the parlay. Another area, discussed in great detail in many other threads, is the takeout. Is it fair to interpret a 24% takeout in a Pick 3 as effectively reducing the takeout to 8% per race? Or is that a skewed way of looking at it?

And finally, for those who do play Pick 3s, I'm curious as to your general investment in the bet, and if that has evolved over time. I find myself typically playing a smaller ticket (< $12), because I always have a slight fear of hitting the bet but losing money. As of now, I'm only playing one single ticket for the $1 - perhaps that's a mistake, too? I also try to avoid favorites in the first leg (another area discussed in the earlier threads), and always have some longer "bombs" included to have the possibility of a large payout.

Any input would be greatly appreciated!

[Fingal]

The P3 is one of my favorite bets, & I also play a small ticket usually 2 x 2 x 2 for $8 or 1 x 2 x 2 for $4. I have to trust my judgements, & either I'll win or lose but either way I'm not laying out an uncomfortable amount chasing. Or I may put in an A-B-C set of tickets for $18

Dick Mitchell proposed this- you'll end up with 3 $6 tickets, as you'll have 3 selections in each race of the series. This way even if a short priced favorite wins in the sequence, you have the chance to have the winning combination multiple times.

On ticket #1 you'll have your A pick in race #1, A-B in race #2, & A-B-C in race #3.
Ticket #2 would be A-B in race #1, A-B-C in race #2, & A-B in race #3
Ticket #3 would be A-B-C in race #1, A-B in race #2, & A in race #3

A / ABC / AB
AB / A / ABC
ABC / AB / A

I also try to avoid favorites in the first leg

Just to ask, why ? Sometimes favorites deserve to be favorites. And they win in the sequence where they are going to win. It's the horse that wins the race, not the odds. Prices are nice, but you have to win the race first.

[Maverick58034]

The P3 is one of my favorite bets, & I also play a small ticket usually 2 x 2 x 2 for $8 or 1 x 2 x 2 for $4. I have to trust my judgements, & either I'll win or lose but either way I'm not laying out an uncomfortable amount chasing. Or I may put in an A-B-C set of tickets for $18

Dick Mitchell proposed this- you'll end up with 3 $6 tickets, as you'll have 3 selections in each race of the series. This way even if a short priced favorite wins in the sequence, you have the chance to have the winning combination multiple times.

On ticket #1 you'll have your A pick in race #1, A-B in race #2, & A-B-C in race #3.
Ticket #2 would be A-B in race #1, A-B-C in race #2, & A-B in race #3
Ticket #3 would be A-B-C in race #1, A-B in race #2, & A in race #3

A / ABC / AB
AB / A / ABC
ABC / AB / A


That's a really interesting way to do it. Is that move effective than a Christ-esque A/B/C method? For example:

A / A / A
B / A / A
A / B / B
B / B / A
B / A / B
A / B / B
C / A / A
A / C / A
A / A / C

For varying denominations? For some reason, the setup you listed seems more effective, but I can't put my finger on it.


Just to ask, why ? Sometimes favorites deserve to be favorites. And they win in the sequence where they are going to win. It's the horse that wins the race, not the odds. Prices are nice, but you have to win the race first.

I probably misspoke here - what I meant to say was, I try to avoid playing sequences in which I believe the favorite will win the first leg. It seemed to me that when the favorite wins the first leg, the payout tends to be lower than if whatever non-favorites win later had won first.

Or is this a myth?

[BlueShoe]

I probably misspoke here - what I meant to say was, I try to avoid playing sequences in which I believe the favorite will win the first leg. It seemed to me that when the favorite wins the first leg, the payout tends to be lower than if whatever non-favorites win later had won first.

Or is this a myth?
Have also had this thought. The same might also apply to the last leg. The general public thinking is to want to start the sequence with a winner, so will overbet the favorite in the first leg. If they are still alive going into the last leg, they will use the chalk to boost their chances of cashing. A favorite, if used in the series, might be best played in the middle leg. This is just a general long time impression, and could be false, would take some difficult long term research to confirm. The real life situation is that in a three race series there will likely be at least one race in which the favorite looks very solid, not left out without risk, and it could be in any leg.

[Bettowin]

I posted on a different thread last night about p3's and favorites in the last leg. I do remember a study I read not long ago where the data proved the payouts were lower when favs won the last leg. It fits with human nature that most people want to be alive as long as they can and spread the first two legs and usually end p3's with their most logical horse on the card or a heavy favorite. Makes sense to me.

I'll have to look for what I saw.

[Bettowin]

I posted on a different thread last night about p3's and favorites in the last leg. I do remember a study I read not long ago where the data proved the payouts were lower when favs won the last leg. It fits with human nature that most people want to be alive as long as they can and spread the first two legs and usually end p3's with their most logical horse on the card or a heavy favorite. Makes sense to me.

I'll have to look for what I saw.


Just looked through some charts and this is far from conclusive but P3 payoffs with favs in the first and last legs with similar odds on both sides. These are all the same favorite just looked for similar odds horses on both sides.

5-1 3-1 1-2 = $100
1-2 3-1 5-1 = $130

2 16 1.7 = $600
1.7 17 3 = $635

6 5 .9 = $280
5 .9 5 = $450 favorite in the middle much more in small sample

1 18 .7 = $166
.7 2 17 = $380

2.4 7.7 2.3 = $367
2.3 7.7 3 = $657

This is what I found to compare doing it manually but it would be interesting to see the outcome on a much larger sample but not every race day have closely comparable results.

[Fastracehorse]

Just looked through some charts and this is far from conclusive but P3 payoffs with favs in the first and last legs with similar odds on both sides. These are all the same favorite just looked for similar odds horses on both sides.

5-1 3-1 1-2 = $100
1-2 3-1 5-1 = $130

2 16 1.7 = $600
1.7 17 3 = $635

6 5 .9 = $280
5 .9 5 = $450 favorite in the middle much more in small sample

1 18 .7 = $166
.7 2 17 = $380

2.4 7.7 2.3 = $367
2.3 7.7 3 = $657

This is what I found to compare doing it manually but it would be interesting to see the outcome on a much larger sample but not every race day have closely comparable results.

.....There is enjoyment in learning how to formulate tickets; but reality is tougher.

They can be profitable but they can be expensive too.
There are so many times U are 2 out of 3 in p-3's and 3 out of 4 in p-4's; just the nature of the game; and the problem is a 3:5 can ruin a nice pay so being a chalk beating specialist is a need to being a p-3 player.

I like to identify a longshot in the card and try to get alive to it using p-3's; more times than not i end up not getting to it; however, they can be profitable if U are selective or lucky.

My p-4 at Wdb got beat in the 3rd leg today, JUST!, most days are like this, tough, but occasionally have magical days.

The key 4 me is too play solid enough horses to stay in the game, while taking stabs at good paying exotics. If i play enough p-4's, or 3's, iwill hit some nice ones, but i can't lose focus of the bottom line: Bankroll maintenance.

fffastt

[jfdinneen]

Maverick,

You may wish to review the Economic Analysis of Horseracing Pick 3 Wager (http://www.econ.washington.edu/user/ellis/econ482/horse1105.pdf)?

John

[BlueShoe]

You may wish to review the Economic Analysis of Horseracing Pick 3 Wager (http://www.econ.washington.edu/user/ellis/econ482/horse1105.pdf)?
Good article, food for thought. The only comment I might make is that the fields are much smaller than they were in 2000, the year of the study. The 4, 5, and 6 horse fields we now see are much more chalky than the ones from 10 years ago.

[Fastracehorse]

Maverick,

You may wish to review the Economic Analysis of Horseracing Pick 3 Wager (http://www.econ.washington.edu/user/ellis/econ482/horse1105.pdf)?

John

..............suggests a profit can be made if the player uses only one favorite in the p-3 sequence; which means you need to be selective in your strategy.

Vulnerable favourites? One that does not have one of the top 3 speed figures in the race ( # 1 factor that beats a fave ); and 2., horse in for a new claiming low.

fffastt

[jefftune]

The P3 is a great bet for the small player. I play small tickets - rarely more than $6.00. 1x2x2, 1x2x3, 1x1x3, 1x1x4, etc. Bet a little to win a lot - that's what Harvey Pack always says. What's nice about P3's - if you are alive after the first leg you can just sit on your ticket and not bet. You really can go through the day and not lose much.

[Robert Fischer]

the pick 3 starts with a great single race, and it at best 2 other good ones, and at least two other straight ones.