SchagFactorToWin
06-10-2010, 10:53 AM
I read many posts regarding one's win rate vs. the race favorites. Many handicappers claim to win at a higher rate than the crowd. I thought I did because I have a 44% win rate.
But then I thought of something. I don't know how many of you make selections in every race. I have an average of 2 picks per day (12 race card) and my win rate is based on those picks, of course. My thought was that it wasn't accurate to compare my win rate with the overall favorite win rate. So I went through my selections and kept track of the finish position of the favorite in each race in which I had a pick. The results: my pick won 44.0%, the favorite won 49.6%. (I came up with a Z score of 1.157, so I believe that shows no statistical difference. I'll have to dig out my old stats text book.)
This doesn't address ROI, of course. In addition, I don't even make Win bets, just exactas. So I can't say that this will change my handicapping in any way, it's just a more accurate 'wisdom of the crowds' measurement.
But then I thought of something. I don't know how many of you make selections in every race. I have an average of 2 picks per day (12 race card) and my win rate is based on those picks, of course. My thought was that it wasn't accurate to compare my win rate with the overall favorite win rate. So I went through my selections and kept track of the finish position of the favorite in each race in which I had a pick. The results: my pick won 44.0%, the favorite won 49.6%. (I came up with a Z score of 1.157, so I believe that shows no statistical difference. I'll have to dig out my old stats text book.)
This doesn't address ROI, of course. In addition, I don't even make Win bets, just exactas. So I can't say that this will change my handicapping in any way, it's just a more accurate 'wisdom of the crowds' measurement.