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jeebus1083
06-09-2010, 11:08 AM
A few people here have expressed interest in my harness spreadsheet. I am looking for ideas for contender selection filters (i.e. horses within 4 lengths of the top horse at the 2nd call, and horses within 2 lengths of the lead horse at the 3/4 pole) that I can apply as options for this spreadsheet to narrow down fields. I would also have a manual option so that you could remove from the race the horses deemed non-contenders.

I am hoping once this phase is completed, I will have a sheet that will produce an accurate odds line based on the race contenders.

LottaKash
06-09-2010, 11:25 AM
A few people here have expressed interest in my harness spreadsheet. I am looking for ideas for contender selection filters (i.e. horses within 4 lengths of the top horse at the 2nd call, and horses within 2 lengths of the lead horse at the 3/4 pole) that I can apply as options for this spreadsheet to narrow down fields. I would also have a manual option so that you could remove from the race the horses deemed non-contenders.

I am hoping once this phase is completed, I will have a sheet that will produce an accurate odds line based on the race contenders.

That is a tough cookie to bake jeebus....

I play horses that broke stride in their last races....And, horses that were 12 lengths off the leader at any call, in his last race or two...How do you contend with those aspects.....I couldn't begin to say, as I have been trying for a good long while to quantify those things....I suppose that is why I remain a "pen and paper" handicapper....

Contending line selections are a most subjective thing.....I imagine that is why there are no black boxes that work all the time.....That is a "good thing" for me tho....There are people with fantastic databases, but they have most to do with speed or velocity, but they just can't get the part that you are trying to get as well, quite right, so we still have to make some decisions anyway based on other things.....Trainer intent, proper classification, and Race shape are the keys for me...Now if I could only find a way to automate my way of thinking on those apects....I still dream about it....

I wish I could help US....

jeebus1083
06-09-2010, 11:58 AM
I like to select pacelines that seem to best represent how the horse could run in today's conditions. It could be the last race, or it could be as much as 5 starts back. Today's post position has a lot to do with which running line I choose. If a horse draws Post 8 today, yet his lines when he runs on the outside offer little to no hope, I don't use the races where he showed speed or got a good trip inside. The driver factor also weighs heavily here, as some drivers will show aggression despite the past outside form. Of course one needs to be well-versed with the drivers at a particular track. On the opposite end, if a horse draws inside, yet its most recent performances were no-tries on the outside, I'll look for a paceline where the horse will either be shooting for the lead, sitting the pocket, or having good position in the first flight.

To me, it's important to know 2 things: 1) where the horses are likely to be at the opening 1/4, and 2) where the horses are likely to be at the 3/4.

If I have a good grasp on where the field is likely to be at the 3/4 pole, I should pick the winner a good % of the time. If not, I have no business playing the trotters.

Ray2000
06-09-2010, 01:49 PM
I'll assume you're using Trackmaster *.DBF files and opening them with Excel...

Problem is the "lengths behind" data that you're interested in is in text format and on top of that the fractional part is in symbolic form and not even "¼ ½ ¾" but ASCII code 9563-9565. This makes sorting and/or filtering a real bear.

To convert to numeric format using spreadsheet formulas is possible but really messy. A VBA macro can do the replacement and then you can use Excel's built in filters to get at the pp lines that you want.

jeebus1083
06-09-2010, 01:56 PM
I'll assume you're using Trackmaster *.DBF files and opening them with Excel...

Problem is the "lengths behind" data that you're interested in is in text format and on top of that the fractional part is in symbolic form and not even "¼ ½ ¾" but ASCII code 9563-9565. This makes sorting and/or filtering a real bear.

To convert to numeric format using spreadsheet formulas is possible but really messy. A VBA macro can do the replacement and then you can use Excel's built in filters to get at the pp lines that you want.

I don't use .dbf files. I hand-type in the fractional times. I cannot figure out Trackmaster's file system, otherwise, it would be automated.

wilderness
06-09-2010, 02:06 PM
I don't use .dbf files. I hand-type in the fractional times. I cannot figure out Trackmaster's file system, otherwise, it would be automated.

I've an early file which defines the fields in their data, likely from 1999 or earlier. No clue if there's a later version.

There were 994 fields in the 1999 version.

Contact me if you wish the file.

jeebus1083
06-09-2010, 02:13 PM
I have updated my sheet to account for manual contender selection. Basically, you would type in either "Yes" or "No", and the spreadsheet does the grunt of the math work for calculating fair prices. For races with 5 or more contenders, the horses receive 80% of the line (non-contenders make up the remaining 20%). 4 contenders would get 84% of the line, 3 contenders would get 88%, 2 contenders would get 92%, and a mortal lock would get 96% of the line, the equivalent of a 1/9 shot.

I had experimented with taking the median percentage of the "ability ratings" (Dick Mitchell does a beautiful write-up on this in "Winning Thoroughbred Strategies"), and eliminating any horse with a probability less than the median. I also experimented with eliminating any horses from the line whose initial percentage was greater than 6-1. The problem with what I was doing was that I was accepting marginal horses as contenders who really were not contenders in the first place. By manually selecting who I feel the contenders are in a race, I have CONTROL.

I explained my paceline selection process earlier in this thread. Another way that I have CONTROL.

Ray2000
06-09-2010, 02:17 PM
In that case select all the cells you're interested in, go to the menu for Data and turn on the built in filter.

A drop down list "button" will now be available on top of each column where you can select the filter criteria, Only rows where the criteria is met will then show up other rows will still be there but hidden. Excel's help file will explain in more detail.

GL