Will we ever have another Triple Crown Winnerr?

[jasperson]

I don't think so because our present day trainers are afraid to give their horses the necessary work to do it. In the book Training the Tb Assault worked 1 1/2 miles in 2.32 4 days before he won the Belmont in 2.30 4/5. Why are horses like Mind That Bird and Rachel standing around in the barn when they should be racing? Surely Lucas could find an allowance race for non winners of race in the last 6 months To start MTB out.

[Robert Goren]

You need a great horse and some luck. We haven't had the great horse in a while.

[wisconsin]

You need a great horse and some luck. We haven't had the great horse in a while.

I think it's a case of horses being short because of the whimpy way they are brought along in this era. There have been some close calls in recent years.

[SMOO]

Only if they shorten the 3 races as follows:

KD: 7 F

PS: 6.5 F

BS: 1 mile (one turn)


:3: :ThmbUp:

[QuarterCrack]

I think eventually we will.

It will be a case where there is an extremely weak crop of 3-year olds except for one horse who happens to be pretty decent. He'll win the triple crown because the competition is so poor, not necessarily because he is so great.

[Wickel]

You need a great horse and some luck. We haven't had the great horse in a while.


Big Brown was as dominant a horse in the Triple Crown as we've seen in a while. I wasn't particularly a fan of the horse or the Dutrow operation, but I felt the Triple Crown was a foregone conclusion. What happened was certainly mysterious. Like some writers have said, "We still haven't received a full explanation. Maybe that's where the "luck" comes in.

[OntheRail]

You need a great horse and some luck. We haven't had the great horse in a while.
We had a couple in the last 10 years that just lacked the "LUCK". If they would have. We would of tagged them as Great Horse. ;)

2001 Point Given
2002 War Emblem
2003 Funny Cide
2004 Smarty Jones
2005 Afleet Alex
2008 Big Brown

SO YES I THINK I'LL LIVE TO SEE ANOTHER T.C. WINNER. :jump:

[Greyfox]

We'll have another one.
Jockeys have buggered up horses' chances more than anything.
Desormeaux pulled the pin too early on Real Quiet.
Jeremy Rose ran Afleet Alex too close to a blistering pace in the KD.
Both of those horses should have won Triple Crowns.

[Foolish Pleasure]

It will happen when there is small crop.
largely of average horses and one horse happens to be better than the rest.

The myhthical monster horse is not happening as long as they keep taking milers pumping them full of crap and breeding classic distance horses somehow.

[Greyfox]

Big Brown was as dominant a horse in the Triple Crown as we've seen in a while. I wasn't particularly a fan of the horse or the Dutrow operation, but I felt the Triple Crown was a foregone conclusion. What happened was certainly mysterious. Like some writers have said, "We still haven't received a full explanation. Maybe that's where the "luck" comes in.

Yes, Desormeaux got out of Big Brown's saddle and said "Where's Dutrow...I had no horse." Something was very fishy in that outcome.

[tzipi]

It was a long time till Secretariat won and then there was a few TC winners in short time span after. Plus as Ontherail just wrote above, a bunch on horses have come very close as it is recently. Then you have very close ones who just lost by a fraction before that like Real Quiet and Silver Charm.

It can be done and has been numerous times. There's a reason the TC is so great and it's not because it's easy. Should we just make them 1 mile races and the Belmont 1 1/8 so basically every year there can be a TC winner for these people and they can shout that the horse is a great and should be up their with the other TC winners.

I say leave it the way it is.

[5k-claim]

We had a couple in the last 10 years that just lacked the "LUCK". If they would have. We would of tagged them as Great Horse. ;)

2001 Point Given
2002 War Emblem
2003 Funny Cide
2004 Smarty Jones
2005 Afleet Alex
2008 Big Brown

SO YES I THINK I'LL LIVE TO SEE ANOTHER T.C. WINNER. :jump:

I guess it won't bother me too much if they change the spacing between the races, although I don't know that it is necessary.

Simple 'racing luck' does seem to have stood in the way of potential TC winners as much as anything systematic. Go back just a little farther in time, and you could add Real Quiet. How close was he?

There are still enough close calls that I do believe racing luck will eventually smile on one of them and we will have another TC winner. My vote is "Yes."

[Market Mover]

Yes, Desormeaux got out of Big Brown's saddle and said "Where's Dutrow...I had no horse." Something was very fishy in that outcome.


And then the infamous Kent D interview with Jeannine Edwards on ESPN..."hear me roar, he was not sore.."...another classic retort from a seriously disturbed jockey who's made himself quite a reputation on and off the track...

[tzipi]

Actually if Eskendreya didnt get hurt we might've seen a TC this year. The Preakness would've been a bit tough with Lucky but Eskendreya had the look of a TC winner. But we'll never know.

[Market Mover]

I guess it won't bother me too much if they change the spacing between the races, although I don't know that it is necessary.

Simple 'racing luck' does seem to have stood in the way of potential TC winners as much as anything systematic. Go back just a little farther in time, and you could add Real Quiet. How close was he?

There are still enough close calls that I do believe racing luck will eventually smile on one of them and we will have another TC winner. My vote is "Yes."

Some will argue that perhaps from this list, Smarty and Brownie were worthy because they were undefeated. And had they swept the Crown, they would have matched the great Seattle Slew's undefeated Triple Crown sweep...a record that can only be matched and not broken..

[kenwoodall2]

I hit "NO" by mistake. I meant "YES" but no telling when. IMHO 3 things stopped recent winners:
1) Lack of spacing between races
2) Injuries in Preps
3) Human connections acting as spoilers.

[OTM Al]

Yes and I think more than one in the next 5 years or so. They seem to be most likely when crops aren't very good overall and one horse stands out above the rest. We almost had that this year until Eskendereya bowed out. The current economic conditions have reduced crop size and thus the liklihood of multiple standouts in a given year. The conditions are ripe for it and I would bet the conditions in the 40s and 70s have some similarities as right now.

Matter of fact, even before the last English TC was won back in 1970 they thought it would never be won again. Anyone that saw Sea the Stars last year cannot doubt he easily would have done it if the St. Leger had been considered worth the connection's time. They really don't care so much about the real TC anymore.

[joanied]

You need a great horse and some luck. We haven't had the great horse in a while.

We would have had a couple in the last 10 years or so, if not for bad luck and bad rides!!

[Steve 'StatMan']

Sure we'll have some. And folks will post here during the TC, and some afterwards, that the horse beat weak fields, best of a weak year-class, etc. Others will claim the horsse is the best since Secretariat (or Zenayata, or Rachel, or whomever.)

[Rise Over Run]

Actually if Eskendreya didnt get hurt we might've seen a TC this year. The Preakness would've been a bit tough with Lucky but Eskendreya had the look of a TC winner. But we'll never know.

I think he would have dominated this crop of horses on his best day, but we'll never know. Ability to stay on your "A" game in 3 races over 5 weeks is part of the equation as well. Given his physical issues, this would have probably been his undoing just like many of the recent 2 for 3 horses.

[tzipi]

I think he would have dominated this crop of horses on his best day, but we'll never know. Ability to stay on your "A" game in 3 races over 5 weeks is part of the equation as well. Given his physical issues, this would have probably been his undoing just like many of the recent 2 for 3 horses.

Very true, it's so hard. Maybe he would've been undone by his health but boy he did look good going into it.

[Rutgers]

I think the main reason for the “drought” is the field sizes of the Triple Crown races are larger then in the past, especially in the Belmont.

Sir Barton and Count Fleet faced two opponents in their Belmonts. Gallant Fox and Whirlaway faced 3. Omaha, Secretariat and Affirmed faced 4.

Citation, along with Seattle Slew, faced the most opponents in the Belmont of any Triple Crown winner, which was 7. However, Citation only faced 8 in his other two races combined. Seattle Slew faced 22 in his earlier two.

More recently in the Belmont, Smarty Jones faced 8, War Emblem faced 10, Charismatic faced 11. Real Quiet faced 10. Sunday Silence faced 9.

I don’t think the problem is so much 3 races in five weeks, I think it is more the full fields especially in the fifth week. It’s easier to be the best of 5, then it is to be the best of 9.

Plus, the average field sizes of the Kentucky Derby and Preakness have been larger in recent years then in most of the Triple Crown years.

Larger field crops probably contribute to the larger fields. But today there are also fewer alternative stakes for the three years at that time of the year, so more horses enter the Triple Crown races due to there being fewer choices for them. Also, the purses for the Triple Crown races tower above most of the other stakes, thereby making those races even more attractive. Which hasn't always been the case in the past.

Moving the $1 million Haskell to the week after the Belmont would probably do more to increase the likelihood of a Triple Crown winner than any change to the Triple Crown itself. ;)

[Dave Schwartz]

LOL - We'll be lucky if we ever have another Triple Crown.

[KingChas]

Only if they shorten the 3 races as follows:

KD: 7 F

PS: 6.5 F

BS: 1 mile (one turn)


:3: :ThmbUp:

Tell me your joking?
Where's the next TC winner going to prep for this........
Riudoso Downs :confused: :lol:

We will have another TC winner-patience is a virtue few have these days. ;)

[nijinski]

Our last TC winners were pre Breeders Cup.
The only horse who could win the Derby after winning the BC Juvey was
Street Sense, none before none since.

I think it's too hard on a young horse to train and prep for the BC amd the TC
We are seeing our young highly regarded ones sidelined even before the Derby.

The big $$ incentive , I believed has given us a drought that just may not be
broken.
It started with Champion Two year old Chiefs Crown , the records speak for themselves. JMO

[KingChas]

I predict the year my Eagles win a Super Bowl,
will be the year of the next TC winner. :eek:
:lol:

[eastie]

We'll have another one.
Jockeys have buggered up horses' chances more than anything.
Desormeaux pulled the pin too early on Real Quiet.
Jeremy Rose ran Afleet Alex too close to a blistering pace in the KD.
Both of those horses should have won Triple Crowns.

what about the ride on Point Given in the Derby ? Stevens brutally has him up chasing that ridiculous pace..... a decent ride and he would have whistled, like he did in almost every one of his races.

[v j stauffer]

J P's Gusto

[KingChas]

what about the ride on Point Given in the Derby ? Stevens brutally has him up chasing that ridiculous pace..... a decent ride and he would have whistled, like he did in almost every one of his races.

Same can be said opposite for Risen Star's derby,
and same for Smarty Jones's Belmont ride fiasco.

[stuball]

I vote no....breeding is not aimed for classic distances, it is speed speed speed...racing has changed a lot even since the last TC winner..Trainers space the races so much that when they get to the TC they can't wind up the horses for a tough campaign...the breed is more fragile...the really fast horses don't last long...injuries--$$$ in the breeding shed--and steroids(damn the drugs). I am now in the process of getting the drugs out of my life...(prescription). Doctors are not doctors anymore they are prescription writers..same with horses and vets I believe...(oops off course here)

I don't see a lot of impetus by managers to change the route they are on because horses are a replaceable commodity..Horse sales are loaded with 2 year olds that
look like 3 year olds..that is not natural...take a look at the 2 yo races . Do they truly look like 2 yo's? They will say better nutrition--vitamins--minerals--etc. Some that would not do it are forced to do it to survive because the industry cannot and will not police itself...

Stuball :bang:

[budman]

I agree with most everything posted above but the big problem that I see is that TBs are bred for speed and not the stamina that the TC races require.

[Greyfox]

Earlier in this thread I identified Real Quiet and Afleet Alex as two that probably should have won the Triple Crown except for jockey misjudgement. Others have since contributed. The list is now up to 5.

1988 Risen Star - Eddie Delahoussaye
1998 Real Quiet - Kent Desormeaux
2001 Point Given - Gary Stevens
2004 Smarty Jones - Stewart Elliot
2005 Afleet Alex - Jeremy Jones

The case seems to be building that the potential Triple Crown winners have been there. The riders have made misjudgements.
But let's assume that those are our opinions not facts. Usually though opinions are related to facts.
Say we have a 20 % chance of being right on one of the above.

If that's true, there's a reasonable probability that jockey misjudgement has cost us at least one Triple Crown winner since the last one in 1978.

[Greyfox]

Earlier in this thread I identified Real Quiet and Afleet Alex as two that probably should have won the Triple Crown except for jockey misjudgement. Others have since contributed. The list is now up to 5.

1988 Risen Star - Eddie Delahoussaye
1998 Real Quiet - Kent Desormeaux
2001 Point Given - Gary Stevens
2004 Smarty Jones - Stewart Elliot
2005 Afleet Alex - Jeremy Jones

The case seems to be building that the potential Triple Crown winners have been there. The riders have made misjudgements.
But let's assume that those are our opinions not facts. Usually though opinions are related to facts.
Say we have a 20 % chance of being right on one of the above.

If that's true, there's a reasonable probability that jockey misjudgement has cost us at least one Triple Crown winner since the last one in 1978.

OOps. That should be Jeremy Rose on Afleet Alex.
I haven't had my morning java yet. I could have just as easily written Jeremy Irons as well. :blush:

[Overlay]

Will we ever have another Triple Crown Winner?

Yes, but (as I previously explained/confessed in the thread below) not until I retire (currently projected for January, 2014). ;)

http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/showthread.php?t=27589

[horses4courses]

Hmmmmm....let me see.....Swami headgear on....rubbing crystal ball.......
yes, yes........I see a vision.........in June 2016 at Belmont Park..........
a 3 year old bay colt.....by Curlin out of Zenyatta.........just won the Belmont,
wait....the TRIPLE CROWN!!!!! WOW!!!!

His name: RubberMomDirtDad

:lol:

[cj's dad]

I think the biggest detriment to a horse winning the TC is the KD with its' 20 horse field size.
I have to believe that the winner comes out beat up and mentally rattled. Why not limit the field size to 14 as in the Preakness and Belmont Stakes?

[46zilzal]

It takes SUPERIOR talent and LUCK.....those two could happen again.

[46zilzal]

Big Brown was as dominant a horse in the Triple Crown as we've seen in a while. I wasn't particularly a fan of the horse or the Dutrow operation, but I felt the Triple Crown was a foregone conclusion. What happened was certainly mysterious. Like some writers have said, "We still haven't received a full explanation. Maybe that's where the "luck" comes in.
that steroid cripple could not run INSIDE of horses....Why pick post 20 in the derby and watch his trying to get out on the far side of the clubhouse turn in Baltimore......Nut case exacerbated by Winstrol

[joanied]

I think the biggest detriment to a horse winning the TC is the KD with its' 20 horse field size.
I have to believe that the winner comes out beat up and mentally rattled. Why not limit the field size to 14 as in the Preakness and Belmont Stakes?

That is my take also. We have come pretty close on several occassions, as mentioned...Real Quiet came as close as you can get without winning the TC...that one will bother me forever...but with all the talk on maybe changing the series this way or that...I beleive getting a smaller field for the Derby would be the easiest and best way.
Why do we need 20 horses in the Derby...so a few trainers/owners can say they ran a horse in the Derby? That don't cut it for me...sorry...hate to step on the American dream of winning a Derby, but I'd say at least 40% of the horses that make it to the race, do not belong there.
14 horses is enough...maybe 16, but no more than that....then we might actually see the BEST horse win year after year...and the possibility of a TC would grow.

cj's dad--:ThmbUp:

[cj's dad]

to step on the American dream of winning a Derby, but I'd say at least 40% of the horses that make it to the race, do not belong there.


Does the name "BIg Al's Express" ring a bell ??

[WinterTriangle]

IMHO, limiting the KY Derby field size, is a very good idea, and the lack of a TC winner are the wrinkles on the elephant.

Until the elephant itself is addressed............

[lamboguy]

i think that TODD PLETCHER said a mouthfull after he won the derby with SUPERSAVER. he was asked if he was going to run in the PREAKNESS. he said his horses were accustomed to running every 5 weeks. he littlerally told you right there and then that he had no chance to get SUPERSAVER ready to win in 2 weeks. most trainers today are the same way, they originally get their horses with soft bottoms on them and the horses just don't stand up.

we had one that went on to win 2/3's of the tripple crown with FUNNYCIDE. that guy trained in florida every day no matter what the weather was, no matter how he felt even if he had a the sniffles or a temperature, he went out and trained. he went on and ran in the tripple crown, and then eventually came back and ran a won at age 6 without serious injury. he's not the first one that has run in later years, fourstar allstar and dave did as well and won in later years. everyday goes by and i see horses that are age 9 or 10 that are still running and winning that we once had. this is probably a different mode of training babies than most would be in favor of, but i find the earlier that you start to train the longer the horse survives this games and gives winning efforts.

TODD PLETCHER, NICK ZITO, BOB BAFFERT and others come to these big races loaded up with missiles. so to those guys its just a numbers game.

[joanied]

Does the name "BIg Al's Express" ring a bell ??

Nope...you'll have to elaborate on that one for me...my bell might be rusty!!

[cj's dad]

Nope...you'll have to elaborate on that one for me...my bell might be rusty!!

Sorry JD - Ihad him mixed up with another - Big Al's connections wanted to run him in the Derby Trial:

Read the following, it's laughable:

Big Al's Express Sits Down on Job, Fails to Prove That He Can Race


LOUISVILLE, Ky. — Big Al's Express, the colt who has never run a race, misbehaved in the starting gate before a workout Wednesday and failed to convince Churchill Downs' official starter that he is experienced enough to run in Saturday's Derby Trial.
"He broke all right," starter Tom Wagoner said. "But before that, he sat down (in the gate) and was 'goosey.' It took two of my people to get him up. Rules are rules, and a horse who can't handle the gate isn't ready to race. I'm doing what I'd do for any other maiden on the grounds that acted like this."

[Hedevar]

I think the biggest detriment to a horse winning the TC is the KD with its' 20 horse field size.
I have to believe that the winner comes out beat up and mentally rattled. Why not limit the field size to 14 as in the Preakness and Belmont Stakes?

I agree completely that the 20 horse Derby field is a huge detriment. While we have had TC winners since 1974 it was the ridiculous 23 horse field and the problems encountered by Little Current that caused Churchill to limit the field to 20. Without the problems encountered by Little Current in that cavalry charge that passed for a Derby, we might have had another TC winner based on how the Preakness and Belmont resulted.

[joanied]

Sorry JD - Ihad him mixed up with another - Big Al's connections wanted to run him in the Derby Trial:

Read the following, it's laughable:

Big Al's Express Sits Down on Job, Fails to Prove That He Can Race


LOUISVILLE, Ky. — Big Al's Express, the colt who has never run a race, misbehaved in the starting gate before a workout Wednesday and failed to convince Churchill Downs' official starter that he is experienced enough to run in Saturday's Derby Trial.
"He broke all right," starter Tom Wagoner said. "But before that, he sat down (in the gate) and was 'goosey.' It took two of my people to get him up. Rules are rules, and a horse who can't handle the gate isn't ready to race. I'm doing what I'd do for any other maiden on the grounds that acted like this."

:lol: I sure would have loved to see that...almost like Evening Attire taking a nap in there!!
Actually, lucky he didn't get hurt...that is a sticky situation for sure.
:)