This will be interesting-how predictive is pedigree handicapping?

[WinterTriangle]

.....when you have no speed figures or track performances at all yet to go on?

5 months ago in February, I made up a list of theoreticals for the KY Derby. It was just for fun, using ONLY pedigree to make up the list. It was posted here in March.......I'm curious to see if any of these hits the exacta in the Belmont. :)


Theoretically could WIN the derby:
Fly Down
Ice Box
Drosselmeyer
Eskendereya Laus Deo
Radiohead
Tiz Chrome
Walking the Beach
Soaring Empire
Stay Put

II. Theoretically capable of winning the Derby (BUT have negatives (sire lines with bad history in derby, RAN on bms, turfers, synthers, trainer has no plans for derby, gelding, not enough dosage points or classicity or more speed points than classicity, derby curses, and other weird stuff
Nordic Truce
Pounced
Tahitian Warrior
Vale of York
Worldly
Awesome Act
Bach
D’funnybone
Looking at Lucky
Make Music for Me
Nobles Promise
Discreetly Mine
Odysseus

[jldonah]

Is the one who just might be able to run hard in this race, based a superficial glance at dosage. Funny how moving from Motion's stable has allowed him to run so much faster. I'll take comments off the air.

[WinterTriangle]

:jump:

Well, this was from end of february, beginning of March, well before even the florida derby. No track stats, no speed figures, no track performances, etc. (game on dude and first dude weren't much on the radar back in feb so they never made my chart, as I didn't have pedigree stats on them)

Seems to me it was pretty predictive for classic distance races (1-1/4 to 1-1/2). Proves pure pedigree handicapping has it's good points. :)



Drosselmeyer and Fly Down in the top. Belmont exacta.

[jldonah]

Just got home from work...the race did not turn out at all how I predicted. I thought Game On would push hard or take the lead and the herd in general would not be as strung out early, although the end was competitive and fun to watch. I hope First Dude's connections can find the right race for him to hold on in--although he lost once again, that horse deserves some shorter races to shine in. I don't think he is a quitter (not yet at least), just not suited to classic distances. Although I just got to see the race once a few minutes ago, I am a little impressed with him.
As for Drosselmeyer, to me that performance was unexpected and I don't know what to say--except, yes, you are right, pedigree analysis is a linchpin for figuring out the probable contenders for this race.

[Hanover1]

Pedigree is how we build a work program for them when they have no lines at all. Of course we take into account individual physical characteristics and natural tendencys that they show us along the way, but pedigree is the cornerstone all along the trail. Helps us spot them when we feel they are ready to move along as colts.

[bisket]

at 1 1/2 mile you gotta look for the best stamina. dross in my opinion showed that in all his races. in just about every race he closed in 12's. no, he's never ran a fast fraction, but if you can run not so fast alot longer than others can run fast. you can still get in the winner's circle. ok maybe not if slew, secratariate, or zen is in the race, but against this crowd. dross had plenty of speed :D you also have to take into consideration who was training dross. mott is known as an excellant turf trainer, where stamina is king. his 47 and change work after the dwyer said alot also. the only time you see a breeze under 12's first work after a race for a mott runner it means 2 things. 1) the horse is gonna freak next out, and/or the race was a conditioner. dross figured to there for many reasons.

[depalma113]

at 1 1/2 mile you gotta look for the best stamina. dross in my opinion showed that in all his races. in just about every race he closed in 12's. no, he's never ran a fast fraction, but if you can run not so fast alot longer than others can run fast. you can still get in the winner's circle. ok maybe not if slew, secratariate, or zen is in the race, but against this crowd. dross had plenty of speed :D you also have to take into consideration who was training dross. mott is known as an excellant turf trainer, where stamina is king. his 47 and change work after the dwyer said alot also. the only time you see a breeze under 12's first work after a race for a mott runner it means 2 things. 1) the horse is gonna freak next out, and/or the race was a conditioner. dross figured to there for many reasons.

If by "freak next out" you mean run awfully slow, than yes I guess he freaked.

[bisket]

was courageouse cat slow in the cup turf mile last year? or did he freak? incidentally where were all the top speed figure horses behind this "slow" runner.

[depalma113]

was courageouse cat slow in the cup turf mile last year? or did he freak? incidentally where were all the top speed figure horses behind this "slow" runner.


He was the winning sloth in a field of sloths.