View Full Version : Official PaceAdvantage.com Belmont Stakes Analysis

06-05-2010, 12:06 AM
http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/images/SCNums/5.jpg Fly Down
http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/images/SCNums/11.jpg First Dude
http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/images/SCNums/8.jpg Game On Dude
http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/images/SCNums/7.jpg Drosselmeyer

I see the Belmont Stakes as another wide open event, so naturally I'm going to be looking to beat the probable favorite in Ice Box. In fact, I didn't even list Ice Box among my top four selections. His running style is a little weak for this race given its history (although I suspect Zito & Co. will have him much closer to the pace this time around), and he hasn't run markedly faster than any of my other contenders, so I simply tossed him completely.

The only negative I see about my top choice Fly Down is the fact that he likely will go off at odds of less than his morning line (9/2). This is the kind of race I want to back a decent price, as I see the favorite as being vulnerable and this is a large field full of unremarkable, well matched runners . . . in other words, the race appears ripe for a big ol' upset. The problem is that I don't like any of the bombs enough to pull the trigger, so I settled on what I think is the most talented horse who won't be the favorite.

Fly Down likes to get himself within a few lengths of the lead at around the six furlong mark, which is perfect for the 12 furlong Belmont Stakes. I expect this horse to make the lead turning for home and allow his breeding to carry him to the finish line in front.

First Dude ran out of his skin when he just missed in the Preakness last time out. That effort was so good that he can afford to regress a bit and still have a big time impact on this race. He has a big pace edge and should get out to a clear, comfortable lead. He's very dangerous, but he will also be taking a lot of money . . . plus there is always the chance he might regress much further off the Preakness given it was such a monster effort.

Game On Dude came back to life at Lone Star last time out wearing blinkers for the first time. This horse should be a decent price and I believe he is a major threat to hit the board.

Drosselmeyer finished way back of my top choice in the Dwyer after an eventful trip at odds on. Not the fastest runner in the field, but consistent as they come and has a running style that should fit this race perfectly.