Dutch equation

[teddy]

If I dutch an exacta with the chalk on top to win $100. Then I want to dutch the chalk second with all to win. Obviously I need to bet much less in the place exacta dutch. Any one want to guess how much. If the horse was 2-1 to win then I think the place amount of dutch should be about 1/3 of what i bet in the win dutch. Anyone think they can handle that equation?

[TrifectaMike]

If I dutch an exacta with the chalk on top to win $100. Then I want to dutch the chalk second with all to win. Obviously I need to bet much less in the place exacta dutch. Any one want to guess how much. If the horse was 2-1 to win then I think the place amount of dutch should be about 1/3 of what i bet in the win dutch. Anyone think they can handle that equation?

Dutch betting amounts for various profit margins can be easily solved with system of linear equations. I'll try to make this as simple as possible.

Let's say you want to dutch four different bets (the type isn't important...they can be a mix or match; win bets, exactas, etc.)

ProfitBet1 = Bet1 x OddsBet1 - Bet2 - Bet3 - Bet4
ProfitBet2 = - Bet1 + Bet2 x OddsBet2 - Bet3 -Bet4
ProfitBet3 = - Bet1 - Bet2 + Bet3 x OddsBet3 -Bet4
ProfitBet4 = - Bet1 - Bet2 - Bet3 - Bet4 x OddsBet4

If you want to add another bet, you simply add another equations.

I'm certain Excel can solve the equations.

Mike

[njcurveball]

If I dutch an exacta with the chalk on top to win $100. Then I want to dutch the chalk second with all to win.

Take the 10th from Hollywood today as an example.


#13 is 2-1, the $1 exactas with the horse on top are below.

1.) 245.80
2.) 40.2
3.) 109.5
4.) 32.1
5.) 15.3
6.) 61.9
8.) 87.5
10.) 25.5
11.) 21.6
14.) 13.6

If you want to make a $100 with these you would need to bet as follows. (rounded to $1 as some are over $100, so the payout would be more)

1.) 1
2.) 3
3.) 1
4.) 4
5.) 7
6.) 2
8.) 2
10.) 4
11.) 5
14.) 8

So basically you are betting $37 this way. Notice the odds when you win with #5 are still 2-1. As the return is (7 * 15.3) or $107.1.

Reversing the exactas with #13 on bottom

1.) 533
2.) 81.1
3.) 232.3
4.) 53.7
5.) 20.3
6.) 138.1
8.) 216.7
10.) 40.1
11.) 29
14.) 17.8

And the cost to make $100 (rounded) is below.

1.) 1
2.) 2
3.) 1
4.) 2
5.) 5
6.) 1
8.) 1
10.) 3
11.) 4
14.) 6

So the total cost is $26. Favorites finishing 2nd will obviously pay more, but not as much as you are estimating.

Wheeling any horse in the exotics is a recipe for going broke. Given the fact that every track has a higher takeout on exotics, you basically are losing that extra vig in the long run.

[teddy]

You are correct the reversing the exacta is a saver bet. I was hoping to be able to use the higher rebate along with removing some very unlikely horses from the top half of the place exacta. To make the bet more profitable. Its basically a place bet, enhanced. I just see the exactas with the chalk second being overlaid often. I was hoping to take advantage of that.