Calculating number of events to win

[jasperson]

Say I have a win percentage of 70% is there a way to calculate the maximum number of bets I would have to make before statistically I get a winner? If there is can you give me the formula.

[cj's dad]

God doesn't win at 70%

[only11]

God doesn't win at 70%
:lol: :lol: :lol: great line

[Overlay]

With an established winning probability of 70%, the following is the percentage likelihood of experiencing a losing streak of the lengths indicated:

2 99
3 73.1
4 31.8
5 10.6
6 3.2
7 1.0
8 0.3
9 0.1

(Reference: http://www.financial-spread-betting.com/Losers-winners.html ) (not pertaining specifically to handicapping, but the math should be the same)

[Overlay]

God doesn't win at 70%

...but, as was noted in the play Boog! that appeared in Sports Illustrated during Boog Powell's heyday, "Only God bats .500."

[Overlay]

Disregard my previous post / link (#4).

Here is a llink to a calculator that should be more suited to the type of situation under discussion:

http://sbrforum.com/Betting+Tools/Streak+Calculator.aspx

[TrifectaMike]

Say I have a win percentage of 70% is there a way to calculate the maximum number of bets I would have to make before statistically I get a winner? If there is can you give me the formula.

You can use the following formula:

N = log(1-c)/log(1-p)

N - number of trials
p - win probability
c - confidence level

Example:

p = .7
c = .90 (90% confidence level)
N = log(1-.9)/log(1-.7) = 1,912 run up to 2

90 percent of the time you will have a winner after 2 races.

I believe this is what you want.

Mike

[jasperson]

Thanks, Mike that is what I was looking for
Jack