View Full Version : Quality Road's Beyer?
only11
05-31-2010, 06:12 PM
Anyone have any idea what it might be?im guessing 105-110!
andymays
05-31-2010, 06:14 PM
He did all the work in the race. CJ will know best.
I'm guessing 112-115
110 sounds about right
not an amazing performance but musket man is a solid grade 1/2 yardstick
he probably won with a little bit in hand, though
PaceAdvantage
05-31-2010, 06:17 PM
Not too many dirt races to go on prior to the Met...the times weren't all that blazing...Driven by Success ran a quick one, but he also won by six lengths....
I'm going to take a wild guess and say QR gets a 115-116...although that probably means some big numbers for those behind him....
But that's my guess...115-116...he did come within a tick of the stakes record which has stood for 14 years...105-110 sounds way too low....
only11
05-31-2010, 06:21 PM
Not too many dirt races to go on prior to the Met...the times weren't all that blazing...Driven by Success ran a quick one, but he also won by six lengths....
I'm going to take a wild guess and say QR gets a 115-116...although that probably means some big numbers for those behind him....
But that's my guess...115-116...he did come within a tick of the stakes record which has stood for 14 years...105-110 sounds way too low....
Whats next?
bisket
05-31-2010, 06:47 PM
the two "class" dirt sprints have ones across the board. the track is definately playing fast. the variant will be very subjective if the beyer is higher than 115. success finished 3 ticks above a minus 3 seconds at 7 furs in nonwinners of 2 and quality finished in minus 3 seconds for an 1/8 longer in a grade 1. than you have miners reserve finishing in 141 a minus 1 second going a 1/16 further in non winners of 2. i'd say that race was just slow and throw it out because he controlled the entire race..... heres a spot where the fig may be higher than earned, but thats what the times say if you keep miner's race in. quality could have did it faster though. johnny asked him enough to keep the lead and thats all. the two claimers were average at best early in the card. my opinion is musket and tiz will get higher figs than they deserve, and the fig will give quality his due.
PaceAdvantage
05-31-2010, 06:51 PM
the two "class" dirt sprints have ones across the board. the track is definately playing fast. You need to go back and look at your charts again. Either that, or I don't quite understand what you mean by "the two class dirt sprints have ones across the board."
Valuist
05-31-2010, 06:52 PM
I'm guessing he meant they were won wire to wire?
But Driven by Success, normally a front runner, won his race in off the pace style.
PaceAdvantage
05-31-2010, 06:53 PM
There was only one wire-to-wire win at Belmont on dirt, and it didn't come in a sprint race...thus my confusion over his comment.
Dahoss9698
05-31-2010, 06:55 PM
You need to go back and look at your charts again. Either that, or I don't quite understand what you mean by "the two class dirt sprints have ones across the board."
I didn't understand the entire post.
bisket
05-31-2010, 07:05 PM
you are correct i mixed up sucess with miner, but that doesn't really help the case for a high beyer. success lunged in the air at the start, and still managed to get 3/4's in about 108 and 4. quality got the 3/4's in 108 and 2. once again the fig probably won't reflect the actual quality of qr's time!! although i'd give quality road high marks for the race, but but musket's and tiz's beyers will be inflated. although thats what the times say..... all this only proves how stupid some of you sound when you judge horses on their speed figs :bang:
Edward DeVere
05-31-2010, 07:17 PM
i'd give quality road high marks for the race, but but musket's and tiz's beyers will be inflated. although thats what the times say....
I agree. This was reminiscent of Rachel Alexandra's Woodward. No one in his or her right mind would equate Macho Again's effort with Rachel's, though they finished just a head apart.
PaceAdvantage
05-31-2010, 07:19 PM
all this only proves how stupid some of you sound when you judge horses on their speed figs :bang:at least we know you're ballsy...anyone with your track record of postings calling others stupid...wow..
only11
05-31-2010, 07:19 PM
I agree. This was reminiscent of Rachel Alexandra's Woodward. No one in his or her right mind would equate Macho Again's effort with Rachel's, though they finished just a head apart.
Good point :ThmbUp:
PaceAdvantage
05-31-2010, 07:21 PM
I agree. This was reminiscent of Rachel Alexandra's Woodward. No one in his or her right mind would equate Macho Again's effort with Rachel's, though they finished just a head apart.I guarantee you Musket Man's speed figure will not be equal to Quality Road's...
Bullet Plane
05-31-2010, 07:30 PM
My guess is 115. The fig still gives MM and Tizway about 6 points above what they have ever gotten. However, it seems to line up with Convocation- as well as the 5th at Belmont.
The figure just lines up everything and makes sense.
115, or real close.
It was a fast race and a gutsy one. He held off several challenges and still had enough in the tank to hold off the closers. He didn't win by as much as I thought he would, but the manner was very impressive.
And I didn't have a dime on him, so I'm unbiased.
bisket
05-31-2010, 07:35 PM
at least we know you're ballsy...anyone with your track record of postings calling others stupid...wow..
and just what is my track record of posting? i stand by my statement. :lol: incidentally it takes a set to win at this game....
Edward DeVere
05-31-2010, 07:42 PM
I guarantee you Musket Man's speed figure will not be equal to Quality Road's...
Of course it won't. But the speed figure differential won't accurately reflect how superior Quality Road's performance was to Musket Man's.
N'est pas?
FenceBored
05-31-2010, 07:44 PM
and just what is my track record of posting? i stand by my statement. :lol: incidentally it takes a set to win at this game....
Oh, I don't know. Kelso did alright. ;)
letswastemoney
05-31-2010, 07:50 PM
Of course it won't. But the speed figure differential won't accurately reflect how superior Quality Road's performance was to Musket Man's.
N'est pas?
The beyer speed figure shouldn't. It was never intended to. It should only reflect the final time. It's the job of the handicapper to interpret how the beyer speed figures were earned. But I believe the speed figure is there as a tool, as one piece of the puzzle, but not the end all.
PaceAdvantage
05-31-2010, 08:07 PM
But the speed figure differential won't accurately reflect how superior Quality Road's performance was to Musket Man's.As the prior poster wrote, that's not the job of a speed figure.
What speed figure will do that? Thorograph won't. Rags won't. A speed figure is just that. A speed figure.
¿Comprende?
Dahoss9698
05-31-2010, 10:01 PM
Preliminary Beyer is a 114 for Quality Road. 111 for Musket Man.
I know there has been a lot of talk about Musket Man and he's a nice horse. But this was another dominating performance by Quality Road. Sort of inherited the lead when Le Grand Cru didn't clear. He shrugged off a pretty good horse in Warrior's Reward with ease and they could have went around again and Musket Man wasn't going by him and it was his first start in 16 weeks.
The performance also proved he's a lot more than a one track wonder, although that premise had been proved wrong in his 2 and 3 year old season. Will he stretch out to 10 furlongs? Maybe. But there isn't a horse around that will beat him going 9 furlongs on dirt and he's better than he was last year, which doesn't bode well for his competition.
PaceAdvantage
05-31-2010, 10:06 PM
You should have heard the commentary on TVG pre-race. I believe it was Simon Bray who quoted the DRF's Steve Grabowski who wrote in his analysis that Quality Road was the best horse currently in training...
Well, this made Todd Schrupp and Frank Lyons gasp when they realized Zenyatta was still in training...and they actually said, and I am paraphrasing here, that Grabowski KNOWINGLY wrote such a thing as a purposeful and direct SWIPE against Zenyatta.
Can't make this stuff up...
Cardus
05-31-2010, 10:10 PM
You should have heard the commentary on TVG pre-race. I believe it was Simon Bray who quoted the DRF's Steve Grabowski who wrote in his analysis that Quality Road was the best horse currently in training...
Well, this made Todd Schrupp and Frank Lyons gasp when they realized Zenyatta was still in training...and they actually said, and I am paraphrasing here, that Grabowski KNOWINGLY wrote such a thing as a purposeful and direct SWIPE against Zenyatta.
Can't make this stuff up...
I know Steve very well.
There is not a mean bone is his body. Not one.
Also, he is not a "wise guy." If that is what he wrote, then he believes it genuinely.
Schrupp and Lyons can go f--- themselves if they think that Steve wrote that as a swipe against Zenyatta.
PaceAdvantage
05-31-2010, 10:12 PM
Hey, maybe csperberg caught that on tape as well, and can upload it to YouTube much like he did the Frank M. meltdown...that would be something...
Cardus
05-31-2010, 10:18 PM
Hey, maybe csperberg caught that on tape as well, and can upload it to YouTube much like he did the Frank M. meltdown...that would be something...
I'd like to see the TVG bit. I'll get Jeff Mende on it pronto.
Seriously, Steve is a great guy. Like I posted above, I doubt that he put that in the "Closer Look" to take a swipe at Zenyatta.
classhandicapper
05-31-2010, 10:19 PM
You should have heard the commentary on TVG pre-race. I believe it was Simon Bray who quoted the DRF's Steve Grabowski who wrote in his analysis that Quality Road was the best horse currently in training...
Well, this made Todd Schrupp and Frank Lyons gasp when they realized Zenyatta was still in training...and they actually said, and I am paraphrasing here, that Grabowski KNOWINGLY wrote such a thing as a purposeful and direct SWIPE against Zenyatta.
Can't make this stuff up...
I would be surprised if Quality Road didn't beat Zenyatta on dirt (should they meet) at 8.5 - 9F unless he happened to get cooked in a duel or some physical issues start acting up again and he wasn't 100%.
IMHO, QR is developing into elite Grade 1 older male (assuming he stays sound). It's rare for even a great filly to beat elite Grade 1 older males on dirt going long. When they do beat older males, it's usually when because they caught a weak/average field.
sammy the sage
05-31-2010, 10:20 PM
All I can say ...I had Q.R. against big Z. live in multiple p/3 & 4 's...in the BC...woulda loved to have seen it...since he would've had the lead ALL to himself...but alas...that was the last time you got any kinda odds on him...
csperberg
05-31-2010, 10:20 PM
the frank m meltdown was from another poster, the only credit I deserve was doing a quick search to find it. I'm not turning up anything in searches for these requested comments this time.
PaceAdvantage
05-31-2010, 10:21 PM
the frank m meltdown was from another poster, the only credit I deserve was doing a quick search to find it. I'm not turning up anything in searches for these requested comments this time.I thought maybe you were recording TVG for some reason...oh well...appreciate your efforts nonetheless.
bisket
05-31-2010, 10:27 PM
As the prior poster wrote, that's not the job of a speed figure.
What speed figure will do that? Thorograph won't. Rags won't. A speed figure is just that. A speed figure.
¿Comprende?
keep that in mind when your using them as a guideline to compare horses from 10-20 years ago.
ok if we're in mathematical bliss with tiz and musket's speed figure. who do you like at 7 furs? musket and tiz or driven by success?
Dahoss9698
05-31-2010, 10:28 PM
keep that in mind when your using them as a guideline to compare horses from 10-20 years ago.
ok if we're in mathematical bliss with tiz and musket's speed figure. who do you like at 7 furs? musket and tiz or driven by success?
Musket Man and Tizway would crush Driven By Success at 7 furlongs.
PaceAdvantage
05-31-2010, 10:32 PM
keep that in mind when your using them as a guideline to compare horses from 10-20 years ago.Keep what in mind? That a speed figure tells me exactly how fast they ran (not how they ran fast)?
And that a collection of speed figures run over a career gives you an excellent idea as to the quality of the animal involved, along with the class of races he has won and the quality of the competition he has beaten?
Yeah, I'll keep it in mind. I'll also keep in mind that the best horses, historically, have run the highest speed figures.
Your $10,000 claimer in the third at Belmont isn't going to have anywhere near the speed figures of a Secretariat or a Seattle Slew.
So what exactly should I keep in mind again?
bisket
05-31-2010, 10:44 PM
Musket Man and Tizway would crush Driven By Success at 7 furlongs.
why?
Dahoss9698
05-31-2010, 10:48 PM
why?
Because they are better horses? Because the last time Musket Man was in the same gate as Driven By Success he beat him by 11 lengths?
I don't speak bisket so are you suggesting Driven By Success would beat them?
bisket
05-31-2010, 10:58 PM
how do we arrive at the track variant today? and using common sense what role does driven by success play in it?
how do we arrive at the track variant today? and using common sense what role does driven by success play in it?
I can't speak for Beyer, but I'll be happy to discuss how I do it tomorrow. I did it pretty extensively for the last Quality Road race on this board. Strangely enough, I said 121 was too high and decided on a 114.
Dahoss9698
05-31-2010, 11:04 PM
I'll ask again. Are you suggesting Driven By Success would beat Musket Man and Tizway?
I'll ask again. Are you suggesting Driven By Success would beat Musket Man and Tizway?
Bisket doesn't understand bisket speak either.
bisket
05-31-2010, 11:33 PM
I can't speak for Beyer, but I'll be happy to discuss how I do it tomorrow. I did it pretty extensively for the last Quality Road race on this board. Strangely enough, I said 121 was too high and decided on a 114.
cj i'm not asking because i don't know. i'm trying to explain my point on driven by success
hoss, probably the most crucial race to decide the track variant in relation to quality's speed figure is driven by success allowance race. success spotted the field probably 3/5 to 4/5 of a second because he leaped in the air at the break. so his final time was affected by at least 3/5 of a second. so the race to analyze the variant for quality's race was slow by 3/5 of a second. if you subtract 3/5 off driven by success' time its almost the same as quality road's time. so if the figure is correct quality's beyer should be about the same as driven by success, but mathematically you can't arrive at this without gerrymandering the variant. on occasions like this i quite frankly make note of the fact that the figs for today's races will be suspect, and probably should be disregarded.
in my opinion using those two claiming races early in the card to decide the variant for the met mile is very problematic.
bisket
05-31-2010, 11:35 PM
I'll ask again. Are you suggesting Driven By Success would beat Musket Man and Tizway?
basically i'm saying mathematically driven ran almost as fast as quality. aint that hoot!!!!! so much for mathematical bliss :lol:
PaceAdvantage
05-31-2010, 11:36 PM
in my opinion using those two claiming races early in the card to decide the variant for the met mile is very problematic.Variants, by their very nature, are problematic to begin with. You are using an incredibly small sample size, especially today.
I would say you are greatly overestimating the amount of time the break cost Driven.
RockHardTen1985
05-31-2010, 11:37 PM
My guess is 115. The fig still gives MM and Tizway about 6 points above what they have ever gotten. However, it seems to line up with Convocation- as well as the 5th at Belmont.
The figure just lines up everything and makes sense.
115, or real close.
It was a fast race and a gutsy one. He held off several challenges and still had enough in the tank to hold off the closers. He didn't win by as much as I thought he would, but the manner was very impressive.
And I didn't have a dime on him, so I'm unbiased.
Not that it really matters , but IMO Tizway running a career top in here was highly likely...... Bond was crazy excited about him coming into this, just everything about him has been perfect since returning from Japan.
Dahoss9698
05-31-2010, 11:37 PM
And to think a lot of people here questioned whether or not Quality Road would ever win or race again after the BC fiasco. I even remember some questioning his condition since being in Pletcher's barn.
PaceAdvantage
05-31-2010, 11:38 PM
And to think a lot of people here questioned whether or not Quality Road would ever win or race again after the BC fiasco. I even remember some questioning his condition since being in Pletcher's barn.I remembered the very same thing as I watched Quality Road completely hold off Musket Man with ease.
Variants, by their very nature, are problematic to begin with. You are using an incredibly small sample size, especially today.
What helps at Belmont is that all the races are around one turn. Belmont mile races do deviate from the usual one turn Beyer chart though.
Dahoss9698
05-31-2010, 11:39 PM
basically i'm saying mathematically driven ran almost as fast as quality. aint that hoot!!!!! so much for mathematical bliss :lol:
I happen to think the stumble or whatever it was helped Driven By Success today, because it got him to relax. But thanks for avoiding the question...again.
What is it with people who have an issue answering simple questions?
andymays
05-31-2010, 11:40 PM
QR can get it done and then some. The farther he goes the better he'll get.
Dahoss9698
05-31-2010, 11:42 PM
I remembered the very same thing as I watched Quality Road completely hold off Musket Man with ease.
Pletcher must be hugging him more.
bisket
05-31-2010, 11:43 PM
Variants, by their very nature, are problematic to begin with. You are using an incredibly small sample size, especially today.
thats my point. there aint enough to go on so put a line through it. maybe driven by success freaked today? quality won easily in my opinion... much the best. tiz and musket's race wasn't a heckuva lot better than driven's? i dunno?
thats my point. there aint enough to go on so put a line through it. maybe driven by success freaked today? quality won easily in my opinion... much the best. tiz and musket's race wasn't a heckuva better than driven's? i dunno?
Put a line through it? That is the easy way out of putting the work in. This figure won't be hard to make. There were plenty of horses running around one turn on dirt today to make a very reasonable estimate. Even if it looks like the track changed for the Met, you had 8 solid horses to use to get a line on the figure.
Those that say it can't be done are really saying they don't know how to do it in my opinion.
PaceAdvantage
05-31-2010, 11:46 PM
i dunno?You said it, I didn't. And yet, you think you know better than guys that do it for a living. You think they are automatically going to get it wrong.
bisket
05-31-2010, 11:54 PM
I would say you are greatly overestimating the amount of time the break cost Driven.
he was 2 1/2 lengths back of the field at 1/4 mile and they ran it in 22 and 4. he breaks normal he's a length in front of these at that point. thats 3/5 and i'd say thats conservative. even the if its 2/5 does that make a big difference? no. i think its not to much of a reach to say the track was probably playing faster than the variant will reflect.
bisket
05-31-2010, 11:56 PM
Put a line through it? That is the easy way out of putting the work in. This figure won't be hard to make. There were plenty of horses running around one turn on dirt today to make a very reasonable estimate. Even if it looks like the track changed for the Met, you had 8 solid horses to use to get a line on the figure.
Those that say it can't be done are really saying they don't know how to do it in my opinion.
you wanna spend your money based on screwy data like this thats your affair :rolleyes:
he was 2 1/2 lengths back of the field at 1/4 mile and they ran it in 22 and 4. he breaks normal he's a length in front of these at that point. thats 3/5 and i'd say thats conservative. even the if its 2/5 does that make a big difference? no. i think its not to much of a reach to say the track was probably playing faster than the variant will reflect.
What makes you think a good figure maker wouldn't account for the poor break? For the record, on raw speed, QR ran 20 points faster than Driven By Success did. So given that, it looks like Beyer did change the variant since Beyers are only 10 points apart.
Did you know that before posting the race is so wrong?
you wanna spend your money based on screwy data like this thats your affair :rolleyes:
What is screwy about it? Is it screwy because you don't have the ability to do it?
As the prior poster wrote, that's not the job of a speed figure.
What speed figure will do that? Thorograph won't. Rags won't. A speed figure is just that. A speed figure.
¿Comprende?
I have
96 for QR (previous race 99)
94 for MM (previous race 84)
92 for Tizway (previous race 88)
Only Musket Man set a lifetime best (previously 90) - that might also have to do with running over a one turn mile for the first time.
A little bit higher than I expected perhaps, but they look legitimate.
andymays
06-01-2010, 09:20 AM
114
tucker6
06-01-2010, 09:44 AM
114
Anybody have a higher one this year??
FenceBored
06-01-2010, 09:57 AM
Anybody have a higher one this year??
Stakes winners from http://www.drf.com/stakeresults/drfStakeResults.jsp:
121 Quality Road - Donn Hdcp
115 Understatement - Evening Attire Stakes
114 Hollywood Hit - Vigil Stakes
114 Quality Road - Met Mile
Or, I coulda, shoulda, just looked at the dang leaderboard - http://www.drf.com/drfLeaderBoard.do?category=beyer
JeremyJet
06-01-2010, 02:09 PM
Thank you cj and PaceAdvantage. Without your input this thread would be typical in regard to the subject matter.
Regards,
JeremyJet
Steve R
06-01-2010, 02:22 PM
114
5 too high.
What makes you think a good figure maker wouldn't account for the poor break? For the record, on raw speed, QR ran 20 points faster than Driven By Success did. So given that, it looks like Beyer did change the variant since Beyers are only 10 points apart.
I'm not sure that taking the poor break into account is necessary in this case. I'm pretty sure that he wouldn't have won the race if he had been attacked on the lead like Jack On The Rocks was. The middle fraction was probably one of the quickest ever over C&D.
I'm not sure that taking the poor break into account is necessary in this case. I'm pretty sure that he wouldn't have won the race if he had been attacked on the lead like Jack On The Rocks was. The middle fraction was probably one of the quickest ever over C&D.
I tend to agree. I just find it funny bisket thinks nobody can watch a race and adjust for the trips when trying to make a variant.
bisket
06-01-2010, 06:26 PM
5 too high.
thats about the way i see it, but beyer did everything possible to even make it lower. anybody basing bets on speed figs off monday's races should really think twice. fact is somebody selling figs can't tell the people that pony up the dough to buy them, "i'm not really sure the figures accurately show what happened in these races". :lol: there will be betting opportunities in the future based on yesterday's figures.
bisket
06-01-2010, 06:29 PM
I tend to agree. I just find it funny bisket thinks nobody can watch a race and adjust for the trips when trying to make a variant.
i have a good idea how beyer arrived at the variant. it doesn't have anything to do with trips and stumbles at the break :rolleyes:
i have a good idea how beyer arrived at the variant. it doesn't have anything to do with trips and stumbles at the break :rolleyes:
Please, elaborate. I'd love to hear your good idea.
You've already ignored the fact that I said the raw figure for Quality Road was 20 points higher than that of Driven.
andymays
06-01-2010, 07:07 PM
5 too high.
I don't know. It seemed to me that he did all the work and kept going. I'd say it was impressive. When he stretches out again and can relax early he will get into the 120's again.
bisket
06-01-2010, 08:51 PM
Please, elaborate. I'd love to hear your good idea.
You've already ignored the fact that I said the raw figure for Quality Road was 20 points higher than that of Driven.
no thanks. you still haven't proven to me you have a clue what your doing, and i'm sure not gonna help.
bisket
06-01-2010, 09:00 PM
I don't know. It seemed to me that he did all the work and kept going. I'd say it was impressive. When he stretches out again and can relax early he will get into the 120's again.
i think quality did this very easily. johnny asked him a few times to accelerate to stay in front and he did it easily. i like quality up to 1 1/8 mile. he just didn't have the punch past that last year. now he could very well improve on that this year. the suburban will be a good test. pletcher still hasn't specifically said the the classic in any of his quotes. i think the suburban will be the race that will decide that. its rather telling that pletcher named many of the 1 1/8 mile races as the ones quality road that quality road will show up in.
no thanks. you still haven't proven to me you have a clue what your doing, and i'm sure not gonna help.
I don't have a clue. I desperately need your help.
Dahoss9698
06-01-2010, 10:15 PM
no thanks. you still haven't proven to me you have a clue what your doing, and i'm sure not gonna help.
I put this in babelfish, here is what came out
we both know I can't. Please stop asking me to explain my inane theories, because there is no explanation for throwing shit at the wall and hoping some sticks.
Cardus
06-01-2010, 10:21 PM
I put this in babelfish, here is what came out
we both know I can't. Please stop asking me to explain my inane theories, because there is no explanation for throwing shit at the wall and hoping some sticks.
Isn't this why Internet Land chat rooms exist?
PaceAdvantage
06-02-2010, 03:19 AM
Isn't this why Internet Land chat rooms exist?Hey!?!
PaceAdvantage
06-02-2010, 03:20 AM
thats about the way i see it, but beyer did everything possible to even make it lower. I personally invite you to beat me:
http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/showthread.php?t=71120
PhantomOnTour
06-02-2010, 10:25 AM
The variant was pretty straightforward for Monday's card, imo. I've got the Met Mile at 108-115-113 Quirin style. Par is 112 so the race was nice but far from QR's best, which will come later down the road. They came home a little slowly but after a 1:08 and change 6f that's gonna happen. My variant (and the splits) say Monday's track was pretty fast early (pace).
Got Miner's Reserve in a 105-106-103 for his earlier race.
Driven By Success(108-110) was the only winner to come from off the pace, but I hesistate to call it a biased track (5 dirt races). He broke slowly but was in contention and only 1 length back at the pace call. Chalk won all dirt races except Miner's Reserve, and in retrospect, he shoulda been the chalk. They all figured and weren't carried by a biased surface.
This variant & fig were not difficult to arrive at imo.
bisket
06-02-2010, 01:15 PM
I personally invite you to beat me:
http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/showthread.php?t=71120
why would i pick against beyers when i use them in my handicapping. just because i don't think they ACCURATE ALL THE TIME doesn't mean i don't use them. i look for occassions when i don't think they are accurate. if this gets some posters tighty whitey's (underwear) tighed up in a knot they'll just have to get over it. if you read through that thread you'll see i stated this in the thread. incidentaly i think its much more honest to issue a figure that may wrong, but is true to the data. then to try and twist the data to say what can analyzed by good handicapping.
Jasonm921
06-02-2010, 04:50 PM
The 1 1/4 races last year were in slop so we really don't know what he can do at 1 1/4.
letswastemoney
06-02-2010, 04:53 PM
The 1 1/4 races last year were in slop so we really don't know what he can do at 1 1/4.I would consider losing only by 1 length to Summer Bird as evidence he can handle 10 furlongs. But I understand if people need to see more.
If it had been to a lesser horse, I might agree that it's unknown.
Jasonm921
06-02-2010, 05:03 PM
I'm not disagreeing with you but I think Quality Road may be a step slower in the slop...He seems to like conditions his own way (tempermental). His travers race was not particularly strong and the Gold Cup while a nice race is not the Quality Road we have seen on a fast surface. I would take Quality Road at 1 1/4 against anything running today on a fast surface. A soupy track alters him from dominant to very good.
I would consider losing only by 1 length to Summer Bird as evidence he can handle 10 furlongs. But I understand if people need to see more.
If it had been to a lesser horse, I might agree that it's unknown.
I think Summer Bird needs to prove a few things as well tbh (not saying he won't). The best older horse he has beaten is, dare I say it, Macho Again.
classhandicapper
06-02-2010, 06:51 PM
I think Summer Bird needs to prove a few things as well tbh (not saying he won't). The best older horse he has beaten is, dare I say it, Macho Again.
He finished ahead of a few horses better than Macho Again and finished quite close to 2 multiple Grade 1 winners and a Group 1 winning Euro in the Breeder's Cup Classic.
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