TOP THREE PLAYS FOR ALL TRACKS IN TODAY'S DATA BASE 05-31-2010

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SEE ATTACHED, TOO MANY TO DISPLAY ON PAGE.

ACTUALLY, THE FILE IS TOO LARGE TO UPLOAD.

SORRY

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I POSTED THEM ON MY WEB PAGE

http://longtermcapitalwinner.homestead.com/~site/Scripts_UnderConstruction/UnderConstruction.dll?CMD=CMDViewSite&URL=http%3A%2F%2Flongtermcapitalwinner.homestead.c om%2Findex.html&HS_ID=1754668897&REFERRAL=SB

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I'll subtotal win pool results for 1st 2nd and 3rd picks and then calculate acutal winners/1/(sum(odds)+1) for all.
Ofcourse, if I'm home, I'll post each winner with a;


CHEER!! LIKE THIS;

Philadelphia - Race 1 ---TOP PICK
# Win Place Show
6 $10.00 $4.20 $2.40

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Suffolk - Race 1 --TOP PICK
# Win Place Show
2 $3.00 $2.60 $2.20

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Churchill Downs - Race 1 --TOP PICK WINNER W/ COLD EXACTA
# Win Place Show
3 $3.20 $2.10 $2.10
1 . $2.60 $2.20
4 . . $3.00
Results: 01 | ALL
Wager Type Winning Numbers Paid
$2.00 Exacta 3-1 $8.60

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Monmouth Park - Race 1 --2ND CHOICE WINNER W/ TOP TWO EX BOX
# Win Place Show
8 $6.00 $2.80 $2.20
5 . $2.40 $2.10
3 . . $2.40
Results: 01 | ALL
Wager Type Winning Numbers Paid
$2.00 Exacta 8-5 $13.00

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Philadelphia - Race 2 -- TOP PICK WINNER
# Win Place Show
4 $7.00 $4.00 $3.00

1.Sorry! The administrator has specified that users can only post one message every 60 seconds. :) :)

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Colonial Downs - Race 1 WINNER ON TOP
# Win Place Show
5 $3.60 $2.80 $2.10

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River Downs - Race 1 2ND CHOICE WINNER 2ND AND 1ST EX BOX
# Win Place Show
3 $8.80 $2.80 $0.00
2 . $2.10 $0.00
Results: 01 | ALL
Wager Type Winning Numbers Paid
$1.00 Exacta 3-2 $5.60

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# Win Place Show -- WINNER ON TOP
6 $3.00 $2.40 $2.10

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[CENTER]Charles Town - Race 1 2ND RANK WINNER, 1ST RANK PLACE, EX BOX
# Win Place Show
7 $9.60 $5.40 $2.40
1 . $5.20 $2.20
4 . . $2.20
Results: 01 | ALL
Wager Type Winning Numbers Paid
$2.00 Exacta 7-1 $47.60

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CRC RACE 1, 1ST MISSED

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Finger Lakes - Race 1
# Win Place Show
2 $5.50 $3.40 $2.30 2ND SCHOICE
6 . $7.30 $3.10 3RD CHOICE
3 . . $2.10 TOP CHOICE
Results: 01 | ALL
Wager Type Winning Numbers Paid
$2.00 Exacta 2-6 $57.50
$2.00 Trifecta 2-6-3 $130.00

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Suffolk - Race 2 TOP CHOICE
# Win Place Show
1 $4.00 $2.60 $2.20

IT'S LIKE ALMOST EVERY RACE HAS BUT THREE HORSES RUNNING :)

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Philadelphia - Race 10
# Win Place Show
3 $5.60 $4.80 $3.40 1ST RANK
2 . $16.00 $6.00 3RD RANK
4 . . $4.00 2ND RANK
Results: 01 | 02 | 03 | 04 | 05 | 06 | 07 | 08 | 09 | 10 | ALL
Wager Type Winning Numbers Paid
$2.00 Exacta 3-2 $77.80
$2.00 Trifecta 3-2-4 $350.00

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Belmont - Race 8
# Win Place Show
2 $8.20 $4.10 $2.60

WHAT AN EASY WIN :)

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Belmont - Race 9 --TOP PICK
# Win Place Show
4 $7.40 $3.80 $2.80

$1.00 Double 2/4 $21.80

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Delaware - Race 3 Chart
# Win Place Show
7 $16.40 $8.20 $5.40

Suffolk - Race 5 Chart
# Win Place Show
7 $20.60 $6.40 $4.00
2 . $3.60 $3.40
6 . . $3.60
Results: 01 | 02 | 03 | 04 | 05 | 06 | 07 | 08 | 09 | ALL
Wager Type Winning Numbers Paid
$2.00 Exacta 7-2 $92.00
$1.00 Trifecta Box $231

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partial results.

102 top ranked plays returned a 1.05 roi, 5% profit
actual wins/expected wins=1

rank WMUT PMUT SMUT FIELD SIZE ODDS RANK WINS E WINS PLAYS FINISH BOOK %

1 214.00 164.20 172.70 37 36.87 102

2 139.20 190.90 196.40 19 25.67 105

3 209.60 217.20 216.80 20 20.12 108
562.80 572.30 585.90 76 82.66 315

[SansuiSC]

Crack a beer! You earned it.

Nice work. :cool:

[formula_2002]

Crack a beer! You earned it.

Nice work. :cool:
thanks..too much salt in beer..at my age its seltzer and a fresh cut lemon :)

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finals;
156 top ranked picks returned a 1.0064 roi, a bit over 1/2 of 1%
in 75 races (about 1/2 of the races) when the top pick is not the favorite. the roi jumps to 1.18 of an 18% profit

rank TRACK RACE PGNO N13 ODDS WMUT PMUT SMUT FIELD SIZE ODDS RANK WINS E WINS PLAYS FINISH BOOK %

1 314.40 240.70 258.90 54 57.38 156

2 217.00 264.90 279.90 29 38.04 157

3 249.60 299.20 297.60 24 28.58 160
781.00 804.80 836.40 107 124.00 473

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finals;
156 top ranked picks returned a 1.0064 roi, a bit over 1/2 of 1%
in 75 races (about 1/2 of the races) when the top pick is not the favorite. the roi jumps to 1.18 of an 18% profit

I went back a few days to see how this model did. It did well
1.09 roi for 119 plays..
this model picks a play in EVERY RACE.
NOTICE THAT THE ACTUAL WINS/EXPECTED WINS RATIO IS CLOSE TO OR >1.
THATS VERY SIGNIFICANT TO ME
I'll post what could be over 100 plays tomorrow.



date TRACK RACE PGNO N13 ODDS WMUT PMUT SMUT FIELD SIZE ODDS RANK WINS E WINS PLAYS FINISH BOOK %

20100527 58.10 55.90 48.00 6 5.71 31

20100528 75.80 64.90 43.80 7 4.18 18

20100529 71.10 74.10 71.40 9 7.90 35

20100530 55.00 49.40 68.70 7 7.31 35
260.00 244.30 231.90 29 25.10 119

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ABOUT 21 RACES REMAIN TO BE RUN. SO FAR 84 RACES RETURNED A .86 ROI.

COMPLETE REPORT LATER..

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FINALS:
91 RACES RETURNED A .85 ROI.
THE A/E (PROPORTIONAL ODDS BET) ROI WAS .95

THE FAVORITES CARRIED THE DAY. 39 FAVORITES RETURNED A 1.07 ROI
SEE ATTACHED FOR EACH RACE RESULT