longshots

[dansan]

anyone just play longshots by longshots I mean anything over 20-1 :eek:

[jamey1977]

anyone just play longshots by longshots I mean anything over 20-1 :eek:
Only first time starters that can go 23 to 1. Everyone is so damn sharp and has so much info. The only durable longshots are actually overlays , who go off between 10 to1 and 19 to 1. 20 and up , only first timers. I don't like losing 47 in a row.

[Eddie W]

It all depends on factor's and pace, speed, jockey, trainer's,
and the right spot,in class...

[Overlay]

I don't exclude longshots (especially if my line shows them as an overlay), but confining wagers exclusively to them would be bucking some formidable percentages as far as achieving consistent success. I'm more inclined to back them if they have some positive aspects in their records, and if their odds are high due to the public overbetting other horses in the race based on factors that I can identify and discount.

[Greyfox]

I don't exclude longshots (especially if my line shows them as an overlay), but confining wagers exclusively to them would be bucking some formidable percentages as far as achieving consistent success. I'm more inclined to back them if they have some positive aspects in their records, and if their odds are high due to the public overbetting other horses in the race based on factors that I can identify and discount.

Agreed. You took the words out of my mouth. Most longshots are actually underlays. Some 30-1 horses should actually be 75-1.
I like playing "logical longshots" who are true overlays.

[thaskalos]

I don't make a "real" betting line...not for all the horses in the race...but I do assess what I consider to be "fair" odds to whomever I perceive to be the win contenders in a race. As far as the real longshots are concerned, I don't know if they qualify to be called overlays or not. I mean...is a 25-1 shot a "true" overlay if it goes off at 40-1? And if it is...how should the fact that it has such a poor win expectation affect the size of the bet?

[Overlay]

As far as the real longshots are concerned, I don't know if they qualify to be called overlays or not. I mean...is a 25-1 shot a "true" overlay if it goes off at 40-1? And if it is...how should the fact that it has such a poor win expectation affect the size of the bet?

Some fraction of Kelly should be able to keep bet size manageable in those cases while still allowing coverage. Maybe some extra qualifiers would help, such as excluding a horse with fair odds that may have been inflated due to inclusion in one or more "roll-up" handicapping groups (such as the bottom half of a field) where it's difficult to tell how horses at the top of that category should be distinguished from horses at the bottom, when all you have are statistics pertaining to the group as a whole.

[JustRalph]

I played a horse at MNR the other night that was 21-1 with 1 min to post.

By the time he closed from the clouds to win in a 5.5f event he was 55-1

and I had a big 2 bucks on him !! YooHoo!! :bang:

But I have been known to play em no matter the price for larger than that.

but then again........ I don't win very much............either

[dansan]

thats what I would like to know when do you bet the farm Iv"e had more longshots come in the past year than the last 20 years problem is knowing when to key them on top and putting more than 2 dollars on them :bang: anyone have the answer

[thaskalos]

thats what I would like to know when do you bet the farm Iv"e had more longshots come in the past year than the last 20 years problem is knowing when to key them on top and putting more than 2 dollars on them :bang: anyone have the answer Are you betting the longshot because you really like it, or are you just taking a stab at it because of the price?

If the bet on the longshot makes handicapping sense, then you have to bet more than $2 on it. I don't know what your normal bet is, but if you are comfortable making it...then make your normal bet regardless of odds. You can't play well when you bet "scared".

If the bet is just a hunch play...then bet your $2 and don't beat yourself up if the horse happens to win.

[Greyfox]

thats what I would like to know when do you bet the farm Iv"e had more longshots come in the past year than the last 20 years problem is knowing when to key them on top and putting more than 2 dollars on them :bang: anyone have the answer

Yes. For the win for sure. As Overlay has intimated, and I stated, play'em "when they are logical."
If you can't find a logical reason to play them, they likely are underlays for the win, even if they are 20-1. It's just that simple. Of course, using them in the third tier of a tri play, I wouldn't discourage.

[kenwoodall2]

If the "contenders" are all underlays by handicapping or by raceday changes, then it is time to bet the field!

[andicap]

I've hit a few bombs and one of the most consistent factors has been some very competitive figure that for some reason was dismissed by the public.
One time I hit a $50 Kelly Breen-trained 2 yr old in a stakes race because the public ignored a good 5F figure in a 6f race.

Another time I hit a $77 horse at Laurel because the competitive figure came at Penn National.

I once hit a $91 horse at Saratoga in a very very competitive 12-horse turf race -- it may have been a stakes or a very very good allowance race. Horse had excellent back figures and was either off a layoff or 2nd off one. horse was overlooked because it was a very tough field.

A good back figure that is buried in a lot of excusable races since then is a great angle. Or if the horse is coming back 2nd/or better yet 3rd off a layoff and shows some not so obvious signs of returning to past form.

there was a $54 horse at MNR that had a competitive but buried figure in HTR while his Beyers were a level below the top contenders.

The trick with betting these horses is you've got to be prepared for a lot -- and I mean a lot -- of losers.

[WinterTriangle]

I never "purposely" set out to wager a longshot.

I handicap the race first, without looking at the odds.

When I'm done, if the horse who looks like the winner turns out to be a longshot....... I'm delighted, and hit it heavy.


Sometimes, that will be a 20-1 M/L horse who goes off at 3-1; other times it will be a 3-1 M/L horse that goes off at 28-1; or a horse that is 10-1 going up to 25-1. (The #4 Country Flavor in the Hanshin Cup yesterday is a good example, if you were able to see *why* he was a possible winner. He drifted up from 12-1 M/L up to 21-1 by post time.)

The answer to "when do you bet the farm" would be the same for playing any horse, longshot or not. It's when you believe you have found a logical winner and in your own mind, have qualified the horse for the most logical (to YOU) winner.


.

[BombsAway Bob]

anyone just play longshots by longshots I mean anything over 20-1 :eek:
YESSSS!

[jonnielu]

thats what I would like to know when do you bet the farm Iv"e had more longshots come in the past year than the last 20 years problem is knowing when to key them on top and putting more than 2 dollars on them :bang: anyone have the answer

This question is a lot easier to answer if you will state what angle is bringing you to the longshot. Since you say that you have had more this year then ever, I have to assume that you have found some consistency in either a past performance angle or a type of horse at a particular circuit. If you don't want to say, I understand, but I'll ask if their is any physical analysis involved.

jdl

[Trotman]

Definition of a longshot is just many more cappers screwing up, don't you just love it :ThmbUp:

[fmolf]

when i handicap a race i assign a probality to each of my contenders.If i have a longshot with my contenders whose reall odds are higher than the probability i have assigned it i'll bet.I'll bet more when all the other contenders look weak on paper and not sharp in the paddock.My long shots must exhibit the signs of a sharp and ready horse in the paddock because it is superior fitness that will carry them to victory.These opportunities are few and far between on the nyra circuit, where most well meant contenders are sent to the post in good form.

[Tape Reader]

Up until about two years ago I would bet whatever my system spit out. Regardless of the odds. I became frustrated at having 33% winners and still ending up losing! I then decided to bet only when "big balloons" were possible. Result: My bottom line has improved.

I thank the following for their insights:

Robert Goren
They don't stiff 20-1 shots!

Markgoldie
I remembered an old book on salesmanship that was written by a man by the name of Tom Hopkins. Hopkins said in the book that in the great American marketplace, there are people who get paid by the day, people who get paid by the week, bi-monthly, monthly, quarterly, yearly, and even longer than one year. Interestingly, the longer the interval between getting paid, the higher the salary (or pay level). This is a near-universal law.

John
"I thought about it and what I came to find out was even if she won 30% of the time the trainer would make more money by betting 100 to win on her when she went off at 50/1 and the 25/1. I confronted him with my theory and he admitted to the wrong doing with the exact reasoning."
That's why every once in awhile you see a horse win that you thought never in a million years can this horse win.
Post from http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/member.php?u=8819 (http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/member.php?u=8819)


Peter L. Bernstein 1919-2009 (Risk-management pioneer and best selling author.)
He counseled investors to "take big risks with small amounts of money rather than small risks with large amounts of money."

Nassim Nicholas Taleb (Author of Black Swan.)
"One thing Mark (Spitznagel, manager Black Swan Fund) taught me was that when someone isn't afraid of losing small amounts of money they're almost invincible" because they have more staying power.

Dave Schwartz
PS: One other thing I am looking at is the trend... My belief is that the trend at 1min will be the same direction at the end, only it will be even more extreme. Note that I said 1 minute - not 0 minutes! That is critical.

Joanied
Yep...when I was at Belmont, X X XXXXX had a horse that was gonna run and we knew the odds would be looooong...now, this horse was training like gangbusters...my ex husband was getting on him in the mornings...last work before he ran, he & XX took him out before the clockers got there...when he ran, he won and paid huge!!

"Dead" heat
In 1977 a horseman came up with an interesting plan to win at the track. First, he falsley reported the death of a champion race horse Cinzano. He then entered the horse under the name of a slower horse that the "dead" horse resembled. At Belmont Park on Sept. 23, 1977, the imposter went off at 57-1 and --big surprise--won. The crook collected more than $80,000 in winnings.
__________________

[Tape Reader]

OMG, THIS IS ALMOST TOO EMBARRASSING.

OK. Just got in. Wife is yelling to get the hibachi (spell?) started. I check and post on PA. Lite the fire. Make a bet.

Flip the tuna and bet the 2 horse of my tote board system. Two bucks on the nose!

21 -1 Winner!

Rag me if you want. Same angle I have posted here in the past. <ML at approx 10MTP and =>ML at PT.

Hollywood Park Race 9 5/31/2010 Base: 10
Ranked by percentage changed - Precedence is f c

Change Horse Power ML Base Odds Money
======== ======== ======== ======== ======== ======== ========
f1.33 2 0 20.00 15.00 20.00 9570.21
c-3.00 3 0 6.00 3.00 3.50 42853.85
c-1.13 8 0 3.00 1.87 1.80 69311.57
.65 10 1 2.50 3.83 2.50 52145.09
.95 1 0 3.50 6.33 6.00 28261.97
1.05 5 1 20.00 46.67 49.00 4011.84
1.08 9 0 20.00 40.00 43.00 4554.73
1.14 4 1 6.00 7.00 8.00 22084.86
1.58 7 0 15.00 18.33 29.00 6535.76

[dansan]

tokk my wife to the otb today sure enough she hits the 6th a 1700 $ exacta she is sooooooooooooooooooooo lucky horse that won paid 210 :eek:

[pandy]

I've been giving out free longshot picks almost every day on my longshotwinners.com site, computer based picks. You can win playing nothing but longshots if you are good at picking longshots.

[Robert Goren]

Tape Reader, You are most certainly welcome.:)

[Robert Goren]

There are two ways to get a long shot. Blindly follow some system(or quirk you have discovered) or know somebody. In either case, if you think about it enough you will think yourself off it. I have had $100 winners both ways. There is a third way, but I have never a really big one this way, but I know people who have. Get confused and make the wrong bet. IE bet the post position instead of the program number, get the wrong race, get the wrong track etc. I know someone who had $50 bucks on a horse who paid over a $130 on a $2 ticket because he was looking at wrong day's form. :D

[Robert Fischer]

I don't play favorites, but when there is a heavy favorite who I feel will most likely disappoint, anyone else is game.

and such is my style, and a moderate patient approach... I tend to play who i feel the contenders in those races. Some are over 20-1 and those tend to be my biggest hits, rare as they are. I don't have a knack for finding many >20-1 LONGSHOTS as solo plays.