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View Full Version : Crazy Early Money in the Pools


menifee
05-28-2010, 10:30 PM
Anybody notice at the smaller tracks, there has been a lot of really crazy early money in the pools? Mountain Race 9 was a good example. Early on 6000k was in the win pool on the eventual 4/5 favorite. Right before post though the horse 1-9 because of the early money. It's happening a lot at CT too.

menifee
05-28-2010, 10:32 PM
As I type, it's happening now at CT. 9/5 ml bet down to 1/9 in the early money. 5k in the win pool on the 7. This guy's been doing this quite a bit lately. Screwing up the win pools because sometimes right before the gate opens, he cancels the wager.

ArlJim78
05-28-2010, 11:03 PM
Yes I have noticed this a few times very recently, like in the last week or so.
As they're going in the gate a horse is 1-9, after the break and final odds update, the horse pops back up to something like even money.

PaceAdvantage
05-28-2010, 11:05 PM
How liberal are some of the ADW cancellation policies. I remember when YouBet first introduced their cancellation feature, there was a bet size limit and a "number of times you could do it in a week" limit. Of course, that latter limit also applies to other areas in life now that I read it back... :lol:

takeout
05-29-2010, 07:19 AM
Some kind of booster play, maybe?

Ocala Mike
05-30-2010, 08:15 PM
This goes on a lot at "shithouse" tracks where the Mutuel Manager is letting the clerks run wild with their cancellations. At a well run venue, the activity reports for the clerks are examined, and "outliers" who have way too many cancellations are "counselled" about it. In many cases, the clerks are doing it in complicity with some big bettors to influence the betting illicitly.

Used to go on at Yonkers in the late 80's until the Mutuel Manger found out about it and put a stop to it.


Ocala Mike

Viruss
05-30-2010, 09:13 PM
I seen fri night MNR 1st race 5k win pool and 10k show ..later that night there was a race with over 150k in the show pool seems crazy to me.

Earl J

Ocala Mike
05-30-2010, 11:07 PM
OK, well my post above has only to do with the win pool. Those moves in place and show pools are obviously "bridgejumper" moves and have nothing to do with oddsboard "gaming for fun and profit."

I hadn't considered, either, the possibility that the large win bets could be coming in from an offtrack site through a "hub" and are then cancelled by the bettor himself. This is an interesting subject, and something that I thought was supposed to be "fixed" after that P/6 fiasco in the Breeders Cup that those Drexel guys jobbed. Don't know what the different cancellation rules are for all the ADW's out there, but it's probably something that needs looking into.


Ocala Mike

lamboguy
05-30-2010, 11:13 PM
BEAVER is back from an extended vacation

Robert Fischer
05-30-2010, 11:23 PM
DAM

Stillriledup
05-30-2010, 11:33 PM
Yes I have noticed this a few times very recently, like in the last week or so.
As they're going in the gate a horse is 1-9, after the break and final odds update, the horse pops back up to something like even money.

If a person wants to bet 1k on a horse who figures to be 3-5, he can bet 5k to win on that horse and make him 1-9 which will force other bettors to bet on someone else.....then, he cancells 4k of his 5k at the end when its too late and he gets even money on his pick instead of 3-5. Its brilliant strategy.

menifee
05-30-2010, 11:51 PM
If a person wants to bet 1k on a horse who figures to be 3-5, he can bet 5k to win on that horse and make him 1-9 which will force other bettors to bet on someone else.....then, he cancells 4k of his 5k at the end when its too late and he gets even money on his pick instead of 3-5. Its brilliant strategy.

I think this is what's happening. This bettor is trying to screw with others and the pricing in the pool. I have to imagine if he can time it perfectly, he can keep others out of the win pool on his horse than cancel a portion of the wager and get the true odds he is looking for. It really screws everything up. At CT, I liked a horse and was getting ridiculous odds on this horse (over 15-1). This guy had come in on somebody else. I dropped a lot on him, more than I would do if the horse had been priced accurately. Suddenly the gates open and the odds dropped tremendously. My value bet lost its value. The horse lost and I lost more than I would have on the race if the true price of the horse had not been masked.

Ocala Mike
05-31-2010, 07:48 AM
OK, the above two posters probably reflect what is going on, so my question is why can't the rules on cancellations be tightened up; i.e., once the bet is reflected in the tote it can't be cancelled or else other restrictions on the number of times or the amounts?

Probably explains a lot of those cases where a horse is 6-1 at post time, and drops to 7-2 during the race.


Ocala Mike

GaryG
05-31-2010, 07:55 AM
At one time earlyor unusual betting action was a positive sign, but in today's environment it means nothing. IMO it is a waste of time to worry about it.

lamboguy
05-31-2010, 08:39 AM
when a horse breaks through the gate prior to the race, that horse neve wins. people with cancel buttons are able to cancel the almost sure losing ticket. the people that can't cancel are trapped like rats. this is one of the inefficiencies of this game. when i see this happen, if i am involved and the horse is short priced, i not only cancel, but i pick something else. this is truly unfair, but it exists today.

since i have been betting at this game for awhile, i know most of the time where the money is coming from and who is betting the money. in this particular instance the guy that is betting all the money on the b-tracks is sitting in a casino in las vegas, and he is not cancelling his tickets. he is bullying the pools. he does the same thing with cold exacta's. he is usually only going in on high rebate tracks, but i did see him make a move in belmont's first race friday for $20k and the winner paid $2.30.

Stillriledup
05-31-2010, 12:06 PM
when a horse breaks through the gate prior to the race, that horse neve wins. people with cancel buttons are able to cancel the almost sure losing ticket. the people that can't cancel are trapped like rats. this is one of the inefficiencies of this game. when i see this happen, if i am involved and the horse is short priced, i not only cancel, but i pick something else. this is truly unfair, but it exists today.

since i have been betting at this game for awhile, i know most of the time where the money is coming from and who is betting the money. in this particular instance the guy that is betting all the money on the b-tracks is sitting in a casino in las vegas, and he is not cancelling his tickets. he is bullying the pools. he does the same thing with cold exacta's. he is usually only going in on high rebate tracks, but i did see him make a move in belmont's first race friday for $20k and the winner paid $2.30.


Why would you bet in vegas if they're 'not allowed' to offer cash rebates?

Or, ARE they? ;) ;)

firstoffclaim
05-31-2010, 07:58 PM
Just happened again in 3rd race, Rogue Victory was 2/5 until 0 min to post, ends up at 5-1 when money is pulled out.

menifee
06-01-2010, 12:42 AM
Yes, he's doing this at the Mountain and CT primarily. Penn National too, but not as much. He's really screwing with the pools.

duncan04
06-01-2010, 02:11 AM
Mark made a comment on the Mountaineer feed tonight that either someone cancelled their huge bet at the last minute or someone hammered another horse to make it the favorite. That was in race #3 when the #2 opened at 1/9 early on.

shouldacoulda
06-01-2010, 02:31 AM
Someone got burned at Mountaineer tonight in the 9th race. Show pool was 122K on the 6 @ 2-5. He ran 4th. The 7-1 #3 paid 22.20 for show winner paid 97.00 to win 16.80 place and 81.80 for show. Ouch!

markgoldie
06-01-2010, 08:59 AM
This is an old strategy which has been in play on and off for years, only in the "old" days you needed a few friendly mutuel clerks to pull it off and now apparently you can do it through automated ADWs.

In days gone past, the sharpest guys restricted the routine to races in which there was no past performance line on which to base a handicapping decision. For ex., first-time starters, first grass race, and certain imported animals. When heavy action shows on these types, who can say it's not well informed? Hence, the copy-cat action follows, creating value in other contenders.

takeout
06-12-2010, 12:19 AM
Noticed it again in the last race tonight (6/11) at CT. A very early 5K in the win pool on the program fav. The horse ran out but there was no great big show pool or anything like that. Just your typical tiny CT “puddles”. I wonder if whoever it is realizes that they bet well over a third of the win pool?

Market Mover
06-12-2010, 02:44 AM
How liberal are some of the ADW cancellation policies. I remember when YouBet first introduced their cancellation feature, there was a bet size limit and a "number of times you could do it in a week" limit. Of course, that latter limit also applies to other areas in life now that I read it back... :lol:


this is priceless....

Marlin
06-12-2010, 02:57 AM
My group used to do this in Q racing at Tbred tracks. We tried every variation. Betting the best horse hard early yielded the best results. Pounding a horse to 1-9 and then cancelling a portion gave us the best return. Pounding another contender and then switching did not work as well.

lamboguy
06-12-2010, 07:21 AM
Why would you bet in vegas if they're 'not allowed' to offer cash rebates?

Or, ARE they? ;) ;)
as far as i know they do allow rebates now. this guy sits in a hotel where they have figured out another legal way to rebate this guy money without calling it a rebate. they allow him to bet large house quinella's that have nothing to do with the mutual pools where the player has a huge mathematical edge against the house. in vegas today they no longer accept large house quinella's from anyone, a $20 house Q is a big bet today. years ago i used to run all over vegas playing those things until i got shut off from evey single sportsbook that took those things.

lurker
06-12-2010, 05:44 PM
Lamboguy you are correct. The monster is back. I hear he needs to play 1.5 pari for 1 in Q's. I think the geniuses at the letter hotel will lose to him at a rate of more than their rebate. Since the monster is playing mostly gimics I estimate they are getting a blended 11% from him. He should be able to make that back in Q's. The only edge that the letter hotel has is that he must play cash, unlike some of his previous adventures.

The monster had a very good week last week, but is doing his best to give it back this week.

If you have any other questions feel free to ask. Yes I know this post is kind of cryptic, but some of the guilty need to be protected.