markgoldie
05-28-2010, 11:03 AM
Hello all. I mentioned on the harness racing site that I played the greyhounds professionally for a time and said that I could give betting tips to a poster who was interested. Well, it's been quite awhile, but I don't suppose the sport has changed that much over the years.
Running styles of dogs:
Every greyhound has a preferred running style, but which fall into general categories of study.
The most prevalent is the dog who, given an unobstructed trip, will run in on the turns and out in the straights. For abbreviation purposes, we may call this an O/I dog.
Next most common is the dog who will run dead on the rail. For short, an R dog.
Next comes the dog who wants to race wide the entire race. For short, an O dog.
And last is the dog who will run in on the straights and out on the turns. For short, a I/O dog.
You must keep records of which dogs do what and have them available for handicapping puroposes. This generally takes watching a dog in several starts, since an individual start may not be revelatory due to bumping or blocking. Also you must be aware that particularly with young dogs just starting out there always exists the possibility of a sudden change in racing style. These changes occur do to the dogs racing experiences. For example, if the dog is constantly being hit from his left, he may turn into a wide-only runner. If he gets hit hard from the right, he may begin to move directly to the rail, etc.
The most race-efficient style is the one most usually adapted- that is, the in on the turns and out on the straight style. (The O/I dog.) That's because this style takes advantage of angular momentum the best. Consequently, dogs who use this style have the best chance to go fast. However, this also causes a dilemma in that this style requires a lot of lateral movement during the race and therefore leads to a greater probability of collision. So while it is the fastest and most efficient style, it is also the most dangerous so to speak.
Before we go on, some comments about the O/I style: Because this style is (a) efficient and (b) subject to lots of bumping and colliding, O/I dogs (along with I/O dogs) are less likely to get clean trips. But when they do, they are almost always dangerous in the sense that they may win or hit the board. Consequently, O/I dogs make the best longshot plays.
Breaking speed:
Dogs have varying rates of breaking, that is, some break fast, some moderately, and others more slowly. You must learn which dogs are which. For practical purposes, it is necessary to categorize the breaking-speed of the dogs down into four major categories: Ultra fast, fast, moderate, and slow. Keep a record of what you see from each dog in every race and label the dog as U/F, F, M, or S, as you become familiar with such propensities.
It is also true (and this is the real "wild card" in handicapping) that dogs do not get the same good break in every race. This is due to their level of attention and readiness when the box opens. You must learn to track the patterns of each dog when it come to breaking, because this may or may not change over time. For examle, an U/F breaker may throw a M break once in awhile and that is not a major concern. It may screw up your handicapping for a given race, but in and of itself, a one-time slow break is not a reason to downgrade a dog's breaking ability. However, when you see two or more sub-par breaks, it's time to downgrade the dog's breaking ability. The reverse is true as well, as dogs will sometimes increase their breaking speed over time.
As this discussion implies, you must carefully watch races live and in replay for breaking information. Along these lines, you should always downgrade a dog's breaking possibilities when it suffers a strong collision immediately after the break. Dogs have good memories and a bad collision at the break may well cause the dog to come out slower in its next start. It may also cause the dog to break away from the direction of the most recent hit.
These things should be noted because as we shall see, the early portion of the race is the most critical in handicapping.
Post positions:
The post position from which the dog will start is by far the most important consideration necessary for predicting how the race will most probably unfold.
Most races are comprised of 8 dogs, which may be considered 8 separate racing lanes at the start. The basic handicapping revolves around predicting where each dog will tend to be, or want to be, about 20 feet after the start and how this quest for positioning will result in the all-important positioning in the first turn. When you first start out, it helps to do this visually. Take a large sheet of paper and draw eight equal running lanes on it. Draw the boxes from which the dogs will start. In each box, write the style and break-speed of the dog who will start from that box. For example, the dog coming from box #1 may be an O/I-M dog. This means that the dog's preferred running style is outside on the straights and inside on the turns and that he is a moderate breaker. Dog #2 May be a R-UF dog, which means that he wants to run dead on the rail and that he breaks ultra-fast. Dog #3 may be an O-S dog, meaning that he wants to run the entire race outside and that he is a slow breaker.
This visualization leads us to better predict the possibility for each dog to get a "clean" trip. And clean trips are what lead veteran dogs to good performances. I say "veteran" dogs, because with young, developing dogs, sheer talent may rule the day more than anything else. But the majority of races are comprised of dogs who have been up and down the class ladder and hence their chances for performance are closely tied to the trip.
Since the majority of races start into the straightaway, the preferred positioning for each dog is paramount to understand. For example, when a dead rail dog (R) is saddled with the 8 post position, the animal will want to get to the rail. As you can see, this will be quite a problem. But more than just a problem for the poor dog himself, he will have the tendency to create interference to other dogs as he makes his way to the rail.
Now. I'm gong to have to allow you to use your own imagination when it comes to sorting out all these potential scenarios because detailing then one by one is far too time-consuming to write out. If I were writing a book, I would need many, many pages to do so. You must also use your experience in watching many races as a guide. The principle I am talking about holds true in every case, though. With your knowledge of the general speed with which each dog will break and his determination to find a given spot, you will begin to get a good idea of the most probable areas of interference. You will begin to know when a dog is in a good spot or a poor one, because you will visualize where the conflicting pressures may be coming from. As you get better and better at this, you will begin to get wagering value from knowledge of favorable and unfavorable spots.
This is why I said that handicapping dogs is a lot like playing billiards. What happens when the balls (dogs) collide? Who bounces where? What "shots" are likely to occur?
Along the way, you will come to some unusual understandings. While I can't explain them all, here's a few: In the R dog with the #8 post, his best chances are when he is a S breaker. Why? Because he can often let the breakers out-leave him and "duck" to the rail behind them. Then when a collision occurs in the first turn, he can often scoot behind it on the rail and in fact, get a great trip. Conversely, the R-S dog is generally disadvantaged by the #1 post. Why? because there will almost always be rail traffic in the first turn and even though he is a S breaker, he will be on it more quickly because he didn't have to run all the way across the track to get the rail as he did when he had the #8 post. R-UF dogs on the rail are big-time dangers to win. Why? Because he's already where he wants to be and his chances of leading the pack into the first turn are excellent. Middle posts are the most difficult because there are so many potential pressures from both inside and outside. For example, let's say the dog has the #4 post. On his inside are O/U dogs and on his outside are some R dogs. You get the picture. He is in for a sandwhich effect, especially if the dogs in question break at the same speed he does. On the other hand, suppose he is a R-S dog and the three inside him are O-UF or O/I-UF dogs. Now the spot is good as the three inside him will tend to out-break him and head to the outside. This gives him a great shot to find the rail without interference. And so on and so on.
Dogs should also be rated along their ability to take a bump and to recover. Some dogs do this and other dogs are eliminated at the first bump. You must learn which dogs can take the bumps and continue. They are more dangerous. However, a true collision will generally eliminate any dog.
Do NOT be fooled by fast times posted by dogs who get perfectly clean trips. The fast time will tend to draw betting action, but the fact is that clean trips don't occur in every race. Bet against the dog who has posted a fast time due to a perfect trip, especially when your analysis shows that he will likey face interference form his postioning in the upcoming event.
There are many other handicapping angles which are far too numerous to go over. However, my purpose here was to outline a workable approach to handicapping dogs. Hope this has been helpful to someone.
Mark
Running styles of dogs:
Every greyhound has a preferred running style, but which fall into general categories of study.
The most prevalent is the dog who, given an unobstructed trip, will run in on the turns and out in the straights. For abbreviation purposes, we may call this an O/I dog.
Next most common is the dog who will run dead on the rail. For short, an R dog.
Next comes the dog who wants to race wide the entire race. For short, an O dog.
And last is the dog who will run in on the straights and out on the turns. For short, a I/O dog.
You must keep records of which dogs do what and have them available for handicapping puroposes. This generally takes watching a dog in several starts, since an individual start may not be revelatory due to bumping or blocking. Also you must be aware that particularly with young dogs just starting out there always exists the possibility of a sudden change in racing style. These changes occur do to the dogs racing experiences. For example, if the dog is constantly being hit from his left, he may turn into a wide-only runner. If he gets hit hard from the right, he may begin to move directly to the rail, etc.
The most race-efficient style is the one most usually adapted- that is, the in on the turns and out on the straight style. (The O/I dog.) That's because this style takes advantage of angular momentum the best. Consequently, dogs who use this style have the best chance to go fast. However, this also causes a dilemma in that this style requires a lot of lateral movement during the race and therefore leads to a greater probability of collision. So while it is the fastest and most efficient style, it is also the most dangerous so to speak.
Before we go on, some comments about the O/I style: Because this style is (a) efficient and (b) subject to lots of bumping and colliding, O/I dogs (along with I/O dogs) are less likely to get clean trips. But when they do, they are almost always dangerous in the sense that they may win or hit the board. Consequently, O/I dogs make the best longshot plays.
Breaking speed:
Dogs have varying rates of breaking, that is, some break fast, some moderately, and others more slowly. You must learn which dogs are which. For practical purposes, it is necessary to categorize the breaking-speed of the dogs down into four major categories: Ultra fast, fast, moderate, and slow. Keep a record of what you see from each dog in every race and label the dog as U/F, F, M, or S, as you become familiar with such propensities.
It is also true (and this is the real "wild card" in handicapping) that dogs do not get the same good break in every race. This is due to their level of attention and readiness when the box opens. You must learn to track the patterns of each dog when it come to breaking, because this may or may not change over time. For examle, an U/F breaker may throw a M break once in awhile and that is not a major concern. It may screw up your handicapping for a given race, but in and of itself, a one-time slow break is not a reason to downgrade a dog's breaking ability. However, when you see two or more sub-par breaks, it's time to downgrade the dog's breaking ability. The reverse is true as well, as dogs will sometimes increase their breaking speed over time.
As this discussion implies, you must carefully watch races live and in replay for breaking information. Along these lines, you should always downgrade a dog's breaking possibilities when it suffers a strong collision immediately after the break. Dogs have good memories and a bad collision at the break may well cause the dog to come out slower in its next start. It may also cause the dog to break away from the direction of the most recent hit.
These things should be noted because as we shall see, the early portion of the race is the most critical in handicapping.
Post positions:
The post position from which the dog will start is by far the most important consideration necessary for predicting how the race will most probably unfold.
Most races are comprised of 8 dogs, which may be considered 8 separate racing lanes at the start. The basic handicapping revolves around predicting where each dog will tend to be, or want to be, about 20 feet after the start and how this quest for positioning will result in the all-important positioning in the first turn. When you first start out, it helps to do this visually. Take a large sheet of paper and draw eight equal running lanes on it. Draw the boxes from which the dogs will start. In each box, write the style and break-speed of the dog who will start from that box. For example, the dog coming from box #1 may be an O/I-M dog. This means that the dog's preferred running style is outside on the straights and inside on the turns and that he is a moderate breaker. Dog #2 May be a R-UF dog, which means that he wants to run dead on the rail and that he breaks ultra-fast. Dog #3 may be an O-S dog, meaning that he wants to run the entire race outside and that he is a slow breaker.
This visualization leads us to better predict the possibility for each dog to get a "clean" trip. And clean trips are what lead veteran dogs to good performances. I say "veteran" dogs, because with young, developing dogs, sheer talent may rule the day more than anything else. But the majority of races are comprised of dogs who have been up and down the class ladder and hence their chances for performance are closely tied to the trip.
Since the majority of races start into the straightaway, the preferred positioning for each dog is paramount to understand. For example, when a dead rail dog (R) is saddled with the 8 post position, the animal will want to get to the rail. As you can see, this will be quite a problem. But more than just a problem for the poor dog himself, he will have the tendency to create interference to other dogs as he makes his way to the rail.
Now. I'm gong to have to allow you to use your own imagination when it comes to sorting out all these potential scenarios because detailing then one by one is far too time-consuming to write out. If I were writing a book, I would need many, many pages to do so. You must also use your experience in watching many races as a guide. The principle I am talking about holds true in every case, though. With your knowledge of the general speed with which each dog will break and his determination to find a given spot, you will begin to get a good idea of the most probable areas of interference. You will begin to know when a dog is in a good spot or a poor one, because you will visualize where the conflicting pressures may be coming from. As you get better and better at this, you will begin to get wagering value from knowledge of favorable and unfavorable spots.
This is why I said that handicapping dogs is a lot like playing billiards. What happens when the balls (dogs) collide? Who bounces where? What "shots" are likely to occur?
Along the way, you will come to some unusual understandings. While I can't explain them all, here's a few: In the R dog with the #8 post, his best chances are when he is a S breaker. Why? Because he can often let the breakers out-leave him and "duck" to the rail behind them. Then when a collision occurs in the first turn, he can often scoot behind it on the rail and in fact, get a great trip. Conversely, the R-S dog is generally disadvantaged by the #1 post. Why? because there will almost always be rail traffic in the first turn and even though he is a S breaker, he will be on it more quickly because he didn't have to run all the way across the track to get the rail as he did when he had the #8 post. R-UF dogs on the rail are big-time dangers to win. Why? Because he's already where he wants to be and his chances of leading the pack into the first turn are excellent. Middle posts are the most difficult because there are so many potential pressures from both inside and outside. For example, let's say the dog has the #4 post. On his inside are O/U dogs and on his outside are some R dogs. You get the picture. He is in for a sandwhich effect, especially if the dogs in question break at the same speed he does. On the other hand, suppose he is a R-S dog and the three inside him are O-UF or O/I-UF dogs. Now the spot is good as the three inside him will tend to out-break him and head to the outside. This gives him a great shot to find the rail without interference. And so on and so on.
Dogs should also be rated along their ability to take a bump and to recover. Some dogs do this and other dogs are eliminated at the first bump. You must learn which dogs can take the bumps and continue. They are more dangerous. However, a true collision will generally eliminate any dog.
Do NOT be fooled by fast times posted by dogs who get perfectly clean trips. The fast time will tend to draw betting action, but the fact is that clean trips don't occur in every race. Bet against the dog who has posted a fast time due to a perfect trip, especially when your analysis shows that he will likey face interference form his postioning in the upcoming event.
There are many other handicapping angles which are far too numerous to go over. However, my purpose here was to outline a workable approach to handicapping dogs. Hope this has been helpful to someone.
Mark