Azeri .. staying in CA

[Observer]

Okay, so maybe it's no surprise ... they always said they were staying in California anyway .. but is anyone else disappointed that Azeri will not be coming to Saratoga to run in the Whitney??

Isn't the best time to get a good horse is when they're coming off the layoff??? I know Frankel is a good trainer, and he can have a horse ready .. but wouldn't this spot have been great for Azeri to try boys?? On Azeri's best day, I say she is competitive against a group like what's expected for the Whitney .. and if she happens to catch Medaglia d'Oro on just the right day .. maybe she's good enough to beat him .. but I definitely think she'd be able to put on a good show!!

What are they going to prove be beating up on the same group of females in their home state?? No doubt Frankel will be targeting Azeri prior to the Breeders' Cup with one of his star females. I guess I just feel maybe they are being over-protective of Azeri .. and I really want to see good sportsmanship .. but I guess when you're top dog you don't go looking for the battles, you let the battles come to you.

But as a fan, I can say I am disappointed .. I was hoping for this .. even though I knew it wouldn't happen.

[cj]

Just my opinion, Azeri cannot beat MDO. She has the same running style and inferior pace and speed numbers, a sure recipe for a disastrous race. She could beat some good colts, but Perfect Drift, Mineshaft, and MDO are a few she simply is not good enough to beat. You could probably add Empire Maker and Funny Cide to that list as well, but I'll withhold final judgement until this weekend.

[Observer]

Yeah, okay .. and last fall not many people thought Volponi had the numbers good enough to beat Medaglia d'Oro .. and Volponi kicked butt in the BC Classic for the 43-1 upset! Never say never in this game.

and by the way .. of the horses you listed that you think she can not beat .. only Medaglia d'Oro is expected for the Whitney .. and it was the Whitney I was discussing.

[rmania]

In all of the years I've been following this sport I can recall only one older top-flight filly/mare that could compete with older top-flight colts/geldings/horses and that was Cascapedia (spelling?). And I attribute her success to the fact that she could run them down from behind which is almost unheard of.

Of course, there have been a hand full of good fillys that managed to beat the boys (Winning Colors being the most famous) but the wins came at a much younger point in their career and they were of the wire-to-wire variety. Who knows, maybe they were just more mature at that age (i.e., 2 or 3). Or maybe they just didn't know that they were supposed to give in (so to speak).

IMO, once fully mature, it makes no sense to run any filly/mare against the boys because no matter how good SHE is, SHE will find a way to loose.

[Observer]

Originally posted by rmania
..SHE will find a way to loose.

I find that offensive .. SHE will find a way to lose?? Everyone finds a way to lose except for the one who wins.

Anyway, last I checked .. Azeri has tactical speed .. and has the kind of speed that makes her tough to run with or tough to let cruise alone. And what once looked like an amazing Whitney is now shaping up to be Medaglia d'Oro's race. Nothing against Volponi, but he upset the BC Classic .. and now he's supposed to be a super-horse?? He's an amazingly competitive horse who popped on the best day. Harlan's Holiday may not even be going in the race. After that .. who else is there??

And the filly you mention, I don't even know who that is .. when was this a top female??

[rmania]

Originally posted by Observer
I find that offensive .. SHE will find a way to lose?? Everyone finds a way to lose except for the one who wins.

Anyway, last I checked .. Azeri has tactical speed .. and has the kind of speed that makes her tough to run with or tough to let cruise alone. And what once looked like an amazing Whitney is now shaping up to be Medaglia d'Oro's race. Nothing against Volponi, but he upset the BC Classic .. and now he's supposed to be a super-horse?? He's an amazingly competitive horse who popped on the best day. Harlan's Holiday may not even be going in the race. After that .. who else is there??

And the filly you mention, I don't even know who that is .. when was this a top female?? I'm sorry if I offended you but the use of "SHE" was not intended to single out Azeri or any older filly/mare.

I'm just of the opinion that "basic instinct" does come into play once horses have fully matured. If I'm not mistaken, didn't Bayakoa tackle the boys once. And how did she fair?

BTW, Cascapedia was the 1977 Eclipse Award winner for Older Female Handicap. Santa Anita even has a Stakes race named in her honor.

[PaceAdvantage]

It is my opinion that Azeri is blowing an easy opportunity. Sure, on his best day, MDO will probably beat Azeri by a couple lengths.

But, we are talking about MDO who is coming off a LONG layoff, and is RIPE to be upset. Azeri is probably at the top of her game. If there was ANY race where she had a better chance to win a GRADE 1 against males, I'd like to know about it.

And as Observer said, after MDO, who is in the Whitney?? Not much.

[Observer]

Originally posted by rmania
I'm sorry if I offended you but the use of "SHE" was not intended to single out Azeri or any older filly/mare.

I understood how you meant the use of the word "SHE" .. and that is why it bothered me. If you're going to look at the game and the hores that way .. then like I said .. there is only one winner in a race .. the rest of the field finds a way to lose.

And thanks for the boost PA .. especially considering that Medaglia d'Oro blew the BC Classic coming off the bench .. Frankel wanted a fresh horse for the Classic .. and he was upset by a 43-1 shot!! Azeri would not be 43-1 against Medaglia d'Oro.

So anyway, the question I started this thread with was if anyone was disappointed she wasn't coming to Saratoga .. anyone?? Or am I the only one??

[Bubbles]

Let's see...Mineshaft is already out and being pointed for the Woodward. Perfect Drift may be coming into form, but does need a pace. And MDO, IMHO, can be beaten if Azeri likes the Saratoga footing.

Any more excuses, DeSeroux?

[PaceAdvantage]

I'm disappointed she won't try the boys. They shouldn't have left the door open this long. Either you want to run against males, or you don't.

If you want to go for the streak, fine. But up until this week, nobody had a definite answer as to what they wanted to do, which means SOMEONE in the Azeri camp wanted to go against boys, and someone else probably did not.

There is enough going on at Saratoga this meet, where I won't be all that disappointed that Azeri isn't going to show up, but it would have been a nice bonus.

[Observer]

I hate that they keep dangling it out there .. like they want to try boys .. it's been mentioned so many times .. not just for the Whitney. Everyone's entitled to change their minds .. but I really get the vibe that they don't want to do it .. and my gut feeling was that they weren't coming to Saratoga .. they've said all along, since earlier this year, they weren't leaving California.

But, who knows .. maybe if Medaglia d'Oro wouldn't have made the race either they would have come?? But then under those circumstances .. had she won .. she would have gotten the famous "who'd she beat" criticism.

Oh well .. would have been nice to see a rare female Horse of the Year here in New York.

[rmania]

Does anyone know how many older females have beaten, and won, against older males in a Grade 1 event over the last 20 years.

I don't know the answer to that question but if forced to guess I'd have to say 0...

I'm not knocking Azeri, maybe she has the right stuff. But the odds are against her and, IMO, a loss would be more damaging than anything she could gain by winning.

[Observer]

Personal Ensign won the Whitney .. was it 1988??

[Wiley]

If you are talking only Grade 1 dirt route races I would say they are few and far between. Can think of Lady's Secret in the Met Mile and think she won or placed in the Whitney but on the grass there have been a few off hand Royal Heroine, Pebbles and All Along (think she won the Arc twice as well). A fairer question might be how many times do top quality fillies/mares even take on colts/horses? The opportunities don't really present themselves too often. I am guessing owners can make enough money in restricted sex races that it does not make much sense to challenge the boys unless on the rare occasion there might be a shot at horse of the year as this used to be a criteria for the winner. In Europe they used to run fillies against colts quite often don't know if that is still the case as I cannot remember one winning any of their bigger races recently. Personally think Wild Spirit might have a better chance at a mile and a quarter in the classic the way she easily romped home in the Delaware Handicap but she is Frankels' and cannot see him putting her against Empire Maker and Medaglio D'Oro.

[Observer]

Wiley .. you bring up good points .. and with the creation of the F&M BC Turf .. Euro females can go there instead of facing males like winning females Pebbles, Royal Heroine, Miesque & Miss Alleged did .. All Along was second to Lashkari in 1984.

As for Wild Spirit .. I don't think Frankel would be sending her to the Classic .. not just because of Medaglia d'Oro, Empire Maker, and whoever else might be blooming at that time .. but Wild Spirit isn't even Breeders' Cup nominated .. so I could see him sending her after Azeri for something prior to the Breeders' Cup.

[cj]

Observer,

I wasn't trying to start a fight. Horse racing is about opinions. I back mine up at the window with my money. To me, that's all that matters. I love the game, but when it comes to a specific horse or race, that is where I am coming from. Can the horse win and make me money, or is the horse going to take a lot of money and I think it has no chance? In this case, I hope Azeri runs against boys so I can cash in against her. She might win, I've been wrong before and will be again, but if you have strong convictions in this game, you've won half the battle.

[JustRalph]

Azeri is one hell of a horse. But since she was named "Horse of the Year" and not filly or mare of the year, she should run against the boys somewhere. Just to validate the award. PA has some pretty good logic in his post about this being her best chance to win a Gr. 1 against the boys. I think they should have went for it. I thought naming her "horse of the year" was a travesty anyway. The biggest races of the year are in the triple crown. Every one points an entire year of racing towards those races and a horse that wins two out of three isn't horse of the year? come on. After the Triple crown races are over everybody acts like they weren't that big a deal, yeah right. Those races should be the the biggest factor in horse of the year honors every year. In my opinion the horse of the year would have to run against the boys....plain and simple.

[cj]

Originally posted by Observer
Personal Ensign won the Whitney .. was it 1988??

She beat noone...3 horse field, sloppy track, beat Gulch (miler at best) and King's Swan (9yo past his prime). The top handicap horses that year were Alysheba, Ferdinand, Bet Twice, Forty Niner, Lost Code, Cutlass Reality, and a few others.

Here is my point...I'm sure Azeri could find a weak field and be competitve against them, and maybe win. But why bother, it doesn't really prove anything unless you face the best.

Someone mentioned Lady's Secret...she did not win the Met Mile, but took the '86 Whitney beating the immortals Ends Well and Fuzzy. I don't think that enhanced her reputation very much.

[cj]

Originally posted by rmania
...In all of the years I've been following this sport I can recall only one older top-flight filly/mare that could compete with older top-flight colts/geldings/horses and that was Cascapedia (spelling?). And I attribute her success to the fact that she could run them down from behind which is almost unheard of...


She was 0-3 against colts, with a neck loss in the Hollywood Gold Cup and 2 bad losses, one in an allowance and one in the Del Mar Handicap.

[Bobby]

If I Was Laura D., I would keep Azeri in female company. Why risk the losing streak to MDO or mineshaft? Females are inferior to males IN sports. PERIOD. And that's why there's TITLE IX (???). Boys compete with boys and girls compete with girls. Thats just the way God wanted it to be.

Didn't Bob Baffert try Silver Bullet Day (????) against some colts. She was supposed to be hot stuff. She got romped.

[cj]

Bobby,

Fillies have been quite successful against males in sprints and turf races. Its dirt routes where they run into trouble.

[Bubbles]

Originally posted by Bobby
If I Was Laura D., I would keep Azeri in female company. Why risk the losing streak to MDO or mineshaft? Females are inferior to males IN sports. PERIOD.

Uhh...Billie Jean King and Bobby Riggs? Babe Zaharias?

[rmania]

Originally posted by cjmilkowski
Fillies have been quite successful against males in sprints and turf races. Its dirt routes where they run into trouble. Add to the list sloppy tracks where fillys have been successful (ala Lady's Secret). In other words, if a filly/mare can get the lead and never be headed she has a shot. Normally when headed (especially late) they WILL back off.

Sorry to burst the bubble of some of the female posters, but we're talking aniamls here, not humans.

As for Cascapedia, I never stated she beat males only that she could compete with them (not just try and run away from them). As you pointed out CJ, she faced males three times (two G1s) and finished a close 2nd in the Gold Cup. What makes her a standout in my mind was the fact that she ran from off the pace.

[karlskorner]

From the San Diego Untion-Tribune (URL won't wrap)

Michael Paulson (owner)

"The consensus is that we're going to stay here and run in the Clement Hirsch"

"At the top of her game, I personally think she could take on the and beat the boys. But the question is, when is the right time to do it"

In the end, the uncertain weather was the deciding factor, Paulson said. Storms are predicited to hit the upstate New York area on the weekend

Laura de Seroux (trainer)

"I'm not afraid to take on males with her either, at the right time. But I agree with Michael. When you factor in the shipping, the weather and the timing to the Breeders Cup (10/25 at SA) this week wasn't it"

[Observer]

Originally posted by cjmilkowski
Observer,

I wasn't trying to start a fight.

Don't think I accused anyone of trying to start a fight.

Everyone's entitled to their opinions. And my basic opinion, as a racing fan who loves to see the horses and watch them perform, I was hoping for the outside chance of Azeri coming .. because I think on her best day, now is the time to get Medaglia d'Oro as he is returning from a layoff .. especially one from injury. Besides that, I'd be looking forward to seeing her come to New York no matter who she'd be facing.

For me, it's not coming from a betting standpoint .. it's coming from being a fan of the game and the horses.

[RECON]

AS ANYONE WHO HAS PLAYED THIS GAME FOR ANY LENGTH OF TIME KNOWS, ANYTHING CAN HAPPEN AT ANY TIME. BUT, AS FOR ME, ANYTIME A TOP CLASS FILLY OR MARE IS GOING TO TAKE ON TOP CLASS MALES ON THE DIRT, IN A ROUTE, I'LL BET THE MALES WITH BOTH HANDS. THERE JUST ARE NOT VERY MANY EXAMPLES OF FEMALES WINNING ROUTE RACES AGAINST CLASSY MALES. ITS LIKE ALWAYS WANTING THE SECOND STRING QUARTERBACK TO PLAY, A HOPEFUL SITUATION, BUT RARELY DOES IT WORK OUT FOR THE BEST.