Longshot isolator

[dav4463]

I've been playing around with this general idea today and caught winners at Philadelphia of $55, $45, and $13......probably just lucky, but wondering if it has any merit. There are still some races left today. Race 8 and 9 had no surviving horses. Race 10 has the 1, 10, and 11 as contenders. 1 is 12-1 M/L and 11 is 10-1M/L, so hopefully another big longshot is on the way.

What I do, is eliminate the two best Beyer horses....overall and recent....and also eliminate the two worst

Then, I eliminate the three best early speed horses and the two worst early speed horses.

It leaves a handful of contenders, usually 1 to 3 per race, sometimes none, that are going off usually at over 4-1.

Is there a chance that this style of play can isolate some price horses? You still have to handicap between the survivors, but the temptation of the top figure horses and top early speed horses is gone while also getting rid of the worst horses. Most of the longshots I have seen are horses who aren't the best on paper, but they aren't hopelessly bad either.

[pmd62ndst]

I agree with you that longshots that win are the lowest "eligible" horses in the field, meaning on their best day, they will be able to beat the favorites on their worst day.

Unfortunately, playing longshots requires patience and enduring loooong droughts. Sometimes, too long for me.

PMD

[dav4463]

I do look at the top two favorites to see if I can throw one out before I bet the race. If I can't , I will pass. Sometimes the favorite is too obvious to bet against, but in most races there are a couple of longshots that are worthy of backing.

[andicap]

How do you define three "best" early speed (and "worst").
By picking your own paceline?
Last race?
Last race at distance/surface, fast track?
Last good race?

etc.

[dav4463]

For early speed, I just look at the running lines for the last six races and add the 1st and 2nd call positions of the best three of the races. Three lowest totals are eliminated.

[BIG HIT]

hI guys have been trying a spd fig thing and it has done pretty well at picking longshot's.A few time the longshot has a towering fig over the field.
Example bel 7/19/03 race#6 seven horse in race
#1-92
#2-84
#3-85
#4-100
#5-78
#6-85
#7-83
What i did was take biggest fig of each horse.No reguard for dist
or off track's any one of the ten race in pp.Then adjust it using weight last race and today's weight.Example last race 122 pounds today 117 pounds you add 5 points to spd fig if other way around you subtract 5 points.As a one factor seem's retty strong so maybe will try add ing your thing two it some how see what happpen's.?