markgoldie
05-25-2010, 10:41 AM
I was recently involved in a discussion of how certain trainers are able to drastically improve horses... Okay. Lou Pena was the topic. His numbers off claims are astonishing. But this was just the beginning of the discussion, which evolved into the question of how trainers and owners decide when and how to claim or buy horses and from whom.
Since hundreds of thousands of dollars are passing through the claim box on a weekly basis, it would seem that info on whom you are claiming from would be essential. But... it doesn't exist in any readily available form.
For example, you have your eye on a $20,000 claimer, trained by trainer X. Wouldn't it be meaningful to have a two or three-year work up on the results of horses leaving his barn? Included in such stats would be the UTR of the claimed horse's trainer as well as the UTR of the claimant trainer. Key info would be the short and longer term class level of the horse, as well as pre-claim average-earnings-per-start vs. post claim similar averages. Same for horses leaving the barn without being claimed, ie. sale or simple trainer change.
Such statistics might reveal some surprising results. For example, (while I only have my own anecdotal impressions to go by), it seems to me that looking at a trainer like Burke might be interesting. While Burke seems to have a good ability to improve claimed horses, it also seems that horses claimed from Burke hold their value relatively well. And so, while the knee-jerk reaction might be to stay away from Burke's horses because he is such a high-percentage trainer, an owner might be passing up some good opportunities to acquire winning horses at the claim box. On the other hand, the reverse seems to be true of Pena, where horses exiting his barn seem to collapse with regularity.
Now. You might think that this information is generally known by trainers and owners. But "general" information is based on recollections and individual anecdotes relating to this horse or that. How much more valuable would it be to have the precise report in front of you before forking over significant cash? Even more valuable would be such information for use at sales. That's because at sales, trainers who do not race a whole lot of claimers are putting their animals up for auction. In this case, there may be little (or no) even anecdotal information on horses leaving this trainer's barn. He may race on a circuit with which you have no familiarity. So, if you are at the Harrisburg Fall Sale, looking at tons of two and three-year olds up for bids, the subsequent performance of animals leaving this trainer's barn might be invaluable.
Anyway, I think an owner and/or trainer would pay a very considerable sum to have this info prior to paying tens of thousand of dollars for horse flesh. In fact, I think a person selling this info at Harrisburg could make an entire year's salary in a week or two. I'm thinking something like $250 for a report on an individual trainer, with volume discounts.
Anyway, some food for thought while I wait for the guards to bring me my morning snack.
Since hundreds of thousands of dollars are passing through the claim box on a weekly basis, it would seem that info on whom you are claiming from would be essential. But... it doesn't exist in any readily available form.
For example, you have your eye on a $20,000 claimer, trained by trainer X. Wouldn't it be meaningful to have a two or three-year work up on the results of horses leaving his barn? Included in such stats would be the UTR of the claimed horse's trainer as well as the UTR of the claimant trainer. Key info would be the short and longer term class level of the horse, as well as pre-claim average-earnings-per-start vs. post claim similar averages. Same for horses leaving the barn without being claimed, ie. sale or simple trainer change.
Such statistics might reveal some surprising results. For example, (while I only have my own anecdotal impressions to go by), it seems to me that looking at a trainer like Burke might be interesting. While Burke seems to have a good ability to improve claimed horses, it also seems that horses claimed from Burke hold their value relatively well. And so, while the knee-jerk reaction might be to stay away from Burke's horses because he is such a high-percentage trainer, an owner might be passing up some good opportunities to acquire winning horses at the claim box. On the other hand, the reverse seems to be true of Pena, where horses exiting his barn seem to collapse with regularity.
Now. You might think that this information is generally known by trainers and owners. But "general" information is based on recollections and individual anecdotes relating to this horse or that. How much more valuable would it be to have the precise report in front of you before forking over significant cash? Even more valuable would be such information for use at sales. That's because at sales, trainers who do not race a whole lot of claimers are putting their animals up for auction. In this case, there may be little (or no) even anecdotal information on horses leaving this trainer's barn. He may race on a circuit with which you have no familiarity. So, if you are at the Harrisburg Fall Sale, looking at tons of two and three-year olds up for bids, the subsequent performance of animals leaving this trainer's barn might be invaluable.
Anyway, I think an owner and/or trainer would pay a very considerable sum to have this info prior to paying tens of thousand of dollars for horse flesh. In fact, I think a person selling this info at Harrisburg could make an entire year's salary in a week or two. I'm thinking something like $250 for a report on an individual trainer, with volume discounts.
Anyway, some food for thought while I wait for the guards to bring me my morning snack.