Question About Pars

[PhantomOnTour]

How do you deal with AlwOptClm (AOC)? Some have straightforward conditions while others use restrictions involving 2 different class levels.

Ex: AOCn2x/25 3+

The problem with me is that the An2x condition is a few levels above the Clm25 condition(my chart), yet they are lumped into one. You can get in above the conditions but you risk being bought for 25k. Is the Clm price supposed to reflect the level these guys would fit at if this were a straight Clm?

Some have these conditions (which are more accurate by my pars):
AOCn2x/50 3+
Those levels fit on my chart: An2x~Clm50.

Throw in an n3l condition or something else in there and landing on an accurate par is elusive. Projections are the easy answer here, but I simply haven't the time in my day. Any suggestions in dealing with this would be mighty helpful ya'll.
Thx

[proximity]

if all of the horses were entered for the 25k, i'd just use the 25k par. if none of the horses were entered for the tag, i'd use the allowance par. otherwise i'd look at the chart and see whether the winner and other top finishers were entered to be claimed or not.

of course if the track was changing you're going to have to dig deeper into the race to make a projection anyhow.

[Tom]

Look at the winner - if he qualifies as an allowance horse, use that condition, otherwise, use the claiming condition. you could consider the two pars as the expected range and use whichever fits the other races best.

[Light]

Bris forms gives pace and final time pars for all races.

[llegend39]

The only thing I know about pars is Augusta National is a par 72!

[PhantomOnTour]

Bris forms gives pace and final time pars for all races.
When I make the days figures I don't have those Bris pars in front of me. I could begin a database with all Bris pars for the tracks I cover and convert that par number to Quirin, which is what I use.

[ManeMediaMogul]

Optional claimers were designed to help fill allowance races by letting in horses who have already won the condition to compete if they enter to be claimed. As such, they are allowance races for use in pars and track variants.
As a rule of thumb, you should always use the "high" end of a condition when you make figures unless there is strong evidence to the contrary.

[jasperson]

Back when I was during my own speeding ratings I determined that moving up in class $5000 was equivalent to 2/5 of a second in speed or the same equivalent in speed points rounded down. Therefore a horse moving from 5k to 10k claiming at 6f I would subtract 5 points from his 5k speed rating. That was using 2.8 speed point per change of 1/5 sec at 6f. Using that I would increase the par by that amount for each jump in class by 5k

[Robert Goren]

As a general rule but not always, optional claimers are won by horses not entered to be claimed. The problem is with horses entered to be claimed in one of these races moving into a straight claimer for the same price. How much of a drop is it.?

[Dave Schwartz]

Since I have more than a little interest in this subject I will offer an opinion.

How do you deal with AlwOptClm (AOC)? Some have straightforward conditions while others use restrictions involving 2 different class levels.

The "optional claiming" condition basically replaced the NW1, NW2, NW3 races at many tracks. That highly-structured approach was a good one as horses just naturally moved through the ranks in a step-wise fashion.

The OC approach makes it somewhat more difficult to get a handle on "what it usually takes to win a race "like this one." BTW, that is the definition of what a par time is supposed to do.


I would like to introduce a second approach to answering the question "What does it take to win a race like this one?" That approach is called Strength of Field.

It begins by assigning each horse a single speed number; a "strength number." The method of assigning this speed number will vary from one type of race to another. Which races to use is the second part of the approach.

Step 1: In this example, we will consider dirt sprints for older horses. In this type of race the best way to get at each horse's strength number is to use the best-of-last-2 speed ratings.

Step 2: Sort the horses from highest to lowest and locate the 4th-best rating. This becomes the "strength of field."

In 7-horse fields use the 3rd best.
In 5-6 horse fields use the 2nd best.

Do not go beyond 4th in large fields!

Do not try to average these ratings!

Step 3: The "par strength" will be 3 points below the strength of field.


Regards,
Dave Schwartz

[Light]

As a general rule but not always, optional claimers are won by horses not entered to be claimed.

It's a 2 headed beast. While those not entered to be claimed may look classier by being protected,those entered for the tag are actually classier because they have usually won this condition already.

That being said,its still a tough call as to who to prefer on the protection factor alone. It would be good to make a study,then play the percentages. It seems to me that those who won the condition,then come back for the tag,are usually favored and dont come back to win. Why did the horse come back for a tag? Why didn't it go to OCn2x or ALwn2x? That is my concern in the lower OC levels. At OC50Knw1x or OC75Knw1x, I don't worry as much if a horse is in for the tag because the owners know there is much less of a chance of them being claimed if entered to the $50K or $75K tag, so in essence the higher price tag is protecting them. I think there has to be a distinction of strategy in playing the OCn1x and OCn2x or OCn3x and the tag price in these conditions.

[Tom]

I always handicap these by starting out as if it were the allowance condition.
If I don't find horses that fit the profile for that, I open it up to the claimers.

[illinoisbred]

Here these races often fill, or partially fill with state-breds because the condition is NW2X maiden,claiming, starter,or state-bred,or 25,000. A very tough condition for most state-breds. Through the years I've seen many races where SBs represented 5 or 6 of the 7 entrants and invariably the 1 or 1 of 2 non SBs win.