Making track-to-track adjustments

[jeebus1083]

How does one do this for harness tracks? Like, if a horse were to run 1:58 at Saratoga Harness, and he's running at the Meadowlands tonight, how would I adjust his time to bring it in line with a Meadowlands race?

[Ray2000]

jeebus


the table I'm using in Reply #6 at

http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/showthread.php?t=64718&page=1&highlight=track+speeds


Hope it helps

[markgoldie]

The problem with raw track-to-track adjustment numbers is that it gives you no idea at all about the relative speed of the given track on a particular night. So, for example, if you are reading a program from The Meadowlands and some invaders come in from BMLP or POC, or MEA, simply adjusting a track-differential speed to their final times tells you very little.

The ways to make the correct adjustments are complicated. They involve having a full set of par times for each class and each track and constructing a track variant for the given card. This allows us to know (within parameters) how fast the track surface was on a given card.

But there are some things which are simply too time-consuming to do on your own. For this, I recommend Trackmaster numbers. Now, as has been discussed on this venue in the past, there are a host of problems with slavishly using these numbers. But at least they have done all the grunt work for you.

The essence of what I am saying is this: Don't suppose that adjusting final-time speeds to the track where they were earned will do anything but throw you off.

[pandy]

My system automatically adjusts for track speed and creates a speed figure plus the other ratings, and my speed adjustments are the best anywhere, although it's never an exact science.

[jeebus1083]

To adjust track-to-track, I'm looking to adjust using a generic yardstick:

Large (7/8m+) oval to 1/2 mile oval (or vice-versa): +/- 3 seconds
Large oval to 5/8 mile oval (or vice-versa): +/- 2 seconds
5/8 mile oval to 1/2 mile oval (or vice-versa): +/- 1 second

While this is not perfect, since all tracks - large or small - play differently in their own way, this is a good representation.

[LottaKash]

I don't use final time all that much, so I don't have anything to offer in that regard...

What I do use tho, is "pace number patterns" of previous races along with "trainers intentions" regarding the ship....

Every horse ships for a "reason", and I am always interested in "that reason"...more than the finishing time of his last race or two...Many times a powerful pace pattern will tell the story of the why of the ship, especially from quality trainers...Sometimes it is for other reasons tho...It could be a horse is shipping to a lesser track where the horse can get some "fractions relief" from a very strenuous race at the faster track....Or, just the opposite may occur, a horse has been better than his competition at the slower track and is now ready to take on some touger and faster foes....Or a horse may be pointed to an umpcoming stakes race, and they want to get the horse prepped and familar with the new track, for later on maybe (especially at this time of the year, stakes time)....Or perhaps they want to "brave up" a horse, and get some speed put into him at the speedier track before going back to the slower home track for some better and quicker finishes....

best,