Big M & Yonkers Combined Pick 6

[SchagFactorToWin]

I just heard about the Metro 6 starting June 5. Is this new or have they done it before?

"On Saturday, June 5, Meadowlands Racetrack and Yonkers Raceway will launch the Metro 6 Shooter, a pick six wager with $30,000 added to the net pool.

Offered every Saturday, the Metro 6 Shooter will feature races from both the Meadowlands and Yonkers as part of the sequence. It begins with the fourth race from the Meadowlands and will be offered as a $1 minimum wager. If nobody selects six winners, 25 percent of the net pool is paid out to tickets with the most winners selected correctly and 75 percent of the net pool will be carried over to the following Saturday." from: harnesslist@yahoogroups.com

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They were talking about it on TVG about a week ago.
I caught the tail end, but I think they said the Yonkers
races will have 10 horses and the big M ones will have 12 !
I don't follow Yonkers anymore but the bet sounds interesting.

[LottaKash]

They were talking about it on TVG about a week ago.
I caught the tail end, but I think they said the Yonkers
races will have 10 horses and the big M ones will have 12 !
I don't follow Yonkers anymore but the bet sounds interesting.

10 horses on a 1/2 mile track, and 12 horses on a one mile track....That means 4-horses will be racing in the trailing positions....That is "nutz"....It is hard enough to win a pick-6 as it is....Now, with the 4 additional trailing horses, this will turn it into more of a "LOTTERY" than ever before....

HaHa with that....I don't think you can get a serious player to bite on this one...Not me, at least.....Of course, I am not one for the pick-6's anyway, my bankroll can't sustain that type of wager, but, I know one thing...Horses racing from trailing positions get the worst of it when it's show time....They are bad bets, IMO....

Why couldn't they just have a "joint venture pick-6", I believe that would be good for harness racing....Not this idea, tho...JMO...

best,

[melman]

Ah contrae LK, I love the trailer post. Think it's good for racing. Makes more horses have a good chance. Wish Yonkers would move the 8 post to a trailer spot for all races. Check out Ray's stats for the 9 trailer spot this past Dover meet.

[LottaKash]

Ah contrae LK, I love the trailer post. Think it's good for racing. Makes more horses have a good chance. Wish Yonkers would move the 8 post to a trailer spot for all races. Check out Ray's stats for the 9 trailer spot this past Dover meet.

Ah yes Mel, but that is for Dover Downs, which is a 5/8th's of a mile oval, and that is the exception to this "trailers rule" that I use....And it seems that the trailers at most 5/8's tracks don't do that badly as they have historically fared ok...But, not so good, at the 1/2 mile tracks and the 1-mile tracks, as there, the horses racing in the trailing postions are really up against it....I have learned this the hard way, and now, unless there is a compelling reason, I will usually just pass the race if my pick is saddled with a trailing position, or I will play against a phoney and suceptible favorite that has been severely handiapped by that trailing post...

Over the years, and this ole-brain can't quite recall who, but I have seen overwheming and "can't lose lock" type champions lose their respective races from the trailing positions at the NY tracks and at M1....Wish I could remember who kost me the kash tho....yeesh...It would back up my opinion all the better..

best,

[harness2008]

There are others on this board that would have the PP stats for something like this but off the top of my head, I would think that trailers, in particular the #9 horse on a half mile track would not fare so poorly. Since for the most part the #1 has the inherent advantage of being a leaver, the #9 could simply follow him, and this combined with the short run up to the first turn would almost guarantee a good early position for this type of horse.

Again I don't have the stats to back this up and I do believe the other posters on here, but that just goes to show how logically it appears that a horse who may have a post position disadvantage, appears with logical reasoning to actually have a better advantage than anticipated, yet over the long haul still doesn't seem to win the # of races that he should. Thats what makes this such a difficult game to master. Research, research and more research.

I think it depends on what type of horse is in front of him. I would think that the #9 horse would have a better advantage if the #1 is a frontrunner and bolts to the front. This would give the #9 a great chance of sitting in the garden spot. If not, the #9 may have to settle for 3rd or 4th on the rail and be forced to go first over. This may appear to be the reason that they don't fare quite well.

[LottaKash]

This would give the #9 a great chance of sitting in the garden spot. If not, the #9 may have to settle for 3rd or 4th on the rail, and be forced to go first over. (or GET BURIED) This may appear to be the reason that they don't fare quite well.

Harness, if you notice I added somethings in red

This is usually what happens, and you are right, and because of this, they don't fare too well....As now as well, there are even more horses to contend with and try to beat..

Just ask any "good driver", what he thinks of the trailing slots, on a 1/2 or 1-mile track, when he gets one...

best,

[melman]

At Northfield Park a 1/2 track.

Post 8 win% 3.7 place% 8.0 show% 13.6

Post 9 (trailer) offered in many races not just a select few. win% 9.8 place 19.8 show 32.1

[melman]

At Hoosier Park a 1 mile track.

Post 10 is the trailer.

Post 9 win% 5.1 place% 12.2 show% 18.6
Post 10 win% 9.2 place% 19.3 show% 29.6

[Pacingguy]

It needs to be noted when you are the only trailer in a race, you can start anywhere in the back. When you are one of two, you must start in your spot. This could make it harder for the 2nd tier rail horse. That being said, it can't be worse than the outside post positions.

I am all for two extra horses in a race. I rather they stretch the race out a little more to make the second tier less of a handicap.

[melman]

It should also be noted that for these 6 shooter races they will be offering FREE platinum Trackmaster pp's.

[LottaKash]

It needs to be noted when you are the only trailer in a race, you can start anywhere in the back. When you are one of two, you must start in your spot. This could make it harder for the 2nd tier rail horse. That being said, it can't be worse than the outside post positions.

I am all for two extra horses in a race. I rather they stretch the race out a little more to make the second tier less of a handicap.

More horses ?...Not me...It is hard enough to win with the amount of horses that they currently are going with, as it is...

There are so many slugs & plugs, and sick, lame and lazy horses being entered these days....So, who needs all those extra horses clogging up the rim, creating dull flows, especially when you might have a nice, in shape contender, going for you....All those extra horses will do, is just make it all that much harder to get the right ones home first, imo...There just ain't enough good horses to go around anymore....

Ten horses on a half miler is dumb, if you ask me...andn on the mile track, does anyone realize how far back the trailers will be with 12 horses ?....nah, not me...

I am all for some change, but not this, it doesn't make any sense to me...

Making a change just for the sake of making a change, or just to see something different and new, is not what is wrong with harness racing these days...We must look elsewhere for the answers...

If one person, could give me one-good reason for adding more horses, I might consider changing my stated opinion....I have been playing for far too long to think that this will result in more winners for me...Hey that's just me, tho...

best,

[LottaKash]

My scanner is down, so this is a labor of "love" for me....But, I just wanted to let the "newbies" know more about the trailing positions at the Harness Tracks...

Long time "Pro" harness player Bob Perosino, devoted a small chapter in his book "Selecting the Standardbred", and he layed out some strategies for those who are willing to take a shot at "trailer races"....I won't get into the strategies, but in his conclusion, this is what he said..."As I said earlier, horses in the second tier are at a disadvantage...Their chances of winning, or for them to be considered, is based on their racing style and the style of the horse directly in front of them....It's been said, and it's TRUE, that the best horse in the race doesn't always win...Two Tier races will prove this fact more often"
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Old timer and Hall of Fame driver "Ron Waples" summed it up best when in a television interview stated that "It (trailing position) should be outlawed"....and that he would rather start on the extreme ouside of the front rank of the starting gate than be in a trailing position."...He further stated "that the only time that one might have an advantage is when one would be following the probable "best horse" in the race"
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In an editorial by Scott Cooper that appeared in the Harness Horse magazine (10/18/86) he delves into the "Injustices" of the trailing position...

Two week back, "Barberry Spur" was at the Roosevelt Raceway (1/2-mile track and used to be the Sister-Track to Yonkers) and taking dead aim at joining an elite group of 3y0 colts by winning the Triple Crown...
Capturing the Triple Crown is a monumnetal task, requiring a horse to stay sharp and race-ready over months. Barberry Spur had completed the first two legs, the "Cane" and the "Little Brown Jug", in smashing style. In the "Messenger", Barberry Spur should only have been worried about downing his seven foes to join the ranks of a very special group of pacers. However, he had another hurdle to overcome, which turned out to be unsurmountable..He drew the post nine in the second tier. Yes, he was a "trailer". And that is a travesty.
This isn't meant to be an excuse for Barberry Spur's loss. There is no assurance that the outcome would have been any different even if he had drawn on the gate. Amity Chef is a proven top colt who deserved to win. But that's not the point.
Barberry is not a unique example. There have been many horses that have been saddled with a second tier draw in stakes races, and unfortunately, it will pobably happen many more times. Some Tracks us trailer in overnight races, and that is also an "injustice".
The simple fact that it happened recently to a horse going for the final jewel in his quest for the TC, merely serves to spotlight it's unfairness...

Trailers are at a major disadvantag. The first, and probably most obvious one, is the fact that they are conceding a length at the start of the race to their competitors who have a chance to put their noses on the starting gate. A trailer, quite obviously doesn't. That's a big handicap.
Being the driver of a trailer in a race puts a severe cramp into early race strategy. To use Barberry Spur as an example, Bill O'Donnell,his driver is a master race tactician...But, was he able to execute any kind of game plan for his horse ?...Not really.
Barberry Spur is a horse that typically puts his speed to good use early in the mile. He does his best racing when he' on or near the lead. Without question O'Donnell would have had him on the move early to get good position. But, die he ever have a chance of doing it ? NO...Instead, it took early race strategy right out of his hands. He was resigned to the fact that he couldn't dow what he wanted , and it's safe to say that many trailers with similar assets are greatly hampered too. What he did at the start of a race,and what tactics he used were contingent upon what the horse in front of him did. All a driver can do in this instance is "hope for the best"..." And that is ridiculous. Drawing post 7 or 8 on a 1/2-mile track is also tough, but that is and accepted fact. That is a given disadvantage on half mile track. It always has been - it always will be. You drop your entry into the box; and you take your chance.

"But, the consequences that shouldn't exist are ones that put a horse in as a trailer, make them concede at least a length at the start to the others, and make strategy, for the most part non-existent"
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Al Stanley arguably the best ever "Pro Harness Handicapper", if not the greatest teacher of the game, of all time....said this about trailers...

"As I have said previously and consistently, over the years, a "Trailing horse" has a "Distinct Disadvantage"....

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Finally, for the cause....

Barry Meadows in his great book "Professional Harness Betting", didn't tackle the trailer's issue, but he did say this, which I believe is just as imprortant...(especially given the fact that this change will add 2- more horses into a race)

"The larger and more competitive the field, the Harder it is to guess the probable pace of the race"

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So there you have it, from "ALL-Pro's" in the game....

So my question to any here who are in favor of this new scheme, what advantages will you gain or lose when they make this silly change ?....Do you think that you will gain more winners ?.... Me, I doubt it, in fact for my money, they are taking out of play, many races (3 at each track nightly) that will ultimately become less "handicappable pacewise"...so this means less possible races to play and less chances for me to get a winner....I use probable pace strategies and pace pattern numbers in my quest for winners...

Tell them "NO", we don't want it.....(please)

best,

[Ray2000]

Tracks that regularly use the trailing post
10/10/2008 thru 5/15/2010


First Trailer is 8
PP1 PP7 PP8 PP9
Starts LON 2802 2691 2215
% Wins 21% 5% 12%
ROI% -21% -54% -19%

First Trailer is 9
PP1 PP7 PP8 PP9 PP10
Starts DD 3657 2971 948
% Wins 18% 4% 12%
ROI% -20% -52% 5%

Starts FLMD 4215 3762 2655
% Wins 20% 3% 11%
ROI% -17% -70% -27%

Starts FRD 1866 1415 1006
% Wins 17% 3% 11%
ROI% -20% -53% -27%

Starts GRVR 914 862 716
% Wins 21% 2% 9%
ROI% -2% -67% -38%

Starts KD 1320 1198 879
% Wins 15% 4% 9%
ROI% -17% -57% -29%

Starts LEB 1154 947 608
% Wins 21% 3% 15%
ROI% -10% -65% -25%

Starts NFLD 4634 4237 3113
% Wins 17% 3% 13%
ROI% -29% -60% -27%

Starts NP 797 474 245
% Wins 18% 4% 13%
ROI% -8% -70% -7%

Starts RIDC 3439 2923 2116
% Wins 18% 4% 11%
ROI% -21% -60% -19%

Starts RP 975 727 434
% Wins 13% 5% 12%
ROI% -26% -58% 0%

First Trailer is 10
PP1 PP7 PP8 PP9 PP10
Starts HOP 1408 1323 1191 829
% Wins 11% 8% 6% 12%
ROI% -31% -44% -48% -13%

Starts INDY 1217 1108 919 617
% Wins 13% 9% 6% 15%
ROI% -15% -31% -36% 10%

Starts ROCK 511 332 229 116
% Wins 16% 6% 10% 6%
ROI% -21% -50% -42% -35%

Starts SCD 750 639 517 329
% Wins 12% 6% 3% 12%
ROI% -37% -63% -60% -8%


melman, the Dover numbers have changed due to the winter meet 1/2 thru 4/15.
Seems the 9 hole had a tough time getting wins but still is better than being outside in the 8 hole

In all cases the 1st trailer does better than the far outside post except Rockingham where I really don't have enough starters.

btw.. Calx has changed the trailer, I believe the 10 now starts from the outside

[harness2008]

A couple different ways to look at it though Kash. A larger field would normally mean a better payoff for your in shape horse but of course at the expense of more horses possibly causing issues during the running of the race.

If your method finds a horse that is fit and is entered in the right conditions, that horse all other things being equal figures to be the winner anyway. The better payoff would perhaps offset the times that you get hosed because of traffic issues.

I guess I'm looking at that glass half full again.

[LottaKash]

A couple different ways to look at it though Kash. A larger field would normally mean a better payoff for your in shape horse but of course at the expense of more horses possibly causing issues during the running of the race.

If your method finds a horse that is fit and is entered in the right conditions, that horse all other things being equal figures to be the winner anyway. The better payoff would perhaps offset the times that you get hosed because of traffic issues.

I guess I'm looking at that glass half full again.

OK Harness, your point is well taken...

But for me, I will take the "less of a price" and "less of a hosing"....Too much traffic for me...

Those guys that I quoted are all winners tho, and who am I to argue with a winners view on trailers...Trailers suck, and they said as much...And so far, I haven't seen or heard anything to the contrary, to make me change my mind....And if this is so, that trailers suck, then why put up with "more horses" if it doesn't lead to more winners...Just more traffic problems, will be the result...Who needs it ?....The tracks do, but the bettors don't...jmo tho..

best,

[sonnyp]

big, big disadvantage. without nose on the gate the option of leaving is eliminated. on the half mile, trailers usually get away in 3,4 or 5 hold requiring a first over trip or sitting locked in. either way tough way to win a race.