Beyer Speed Figures

[Turntime]

I have an old systems book published by American Turf Monthly called 'A Treasury Of American Turf' that contains an article written by Pat Cabell titled 'Comparative Time Handicapping'. The article outlines a method of computing speed figures that is virtually identical to Andy Beyers method right down to the beaten lengths chart. In Beyers book 'Picking Winners', which was published in 1975, he claims to have learned the math behind his method of computing speed figures from Harvard classmate Sheldon Kovitz. What's puzzling is that 'Treasury' was published in 1967, 8 years before picking winners, yet I have never heard Pat Cabell's name associated with Beyer style figures. Is there anyone that could shed some light on this?

[lousycapper]

:D Mebbee Sheldon read the article that Pat Cabell wrote and did a shine job on his bud Andy... hmmmmmmmmmmm? :D

-L.C.

[kenwoodall]

I guess Andy wrote a similar article but surrounded it with lots of pages of "stuff" and called it a book! People who buy books keep them longer than magazines, so more noteriety.
Beyers made them popular.

[JimL]

Pat Cabell, also wrote pace charts for all distances that could be used for any one mile track. These charts had the deceleration factor built into them. They were published in ATM, and were intellectually challenging. That is probably the reason they never caught on. Believe I am going to go over them again now. Maybe Andy and Sheldon, pulled our leg! JimL

[arnoldhowe]

Gentlemen:
Andy Beyer is not duplicitous,as I believe he had never heard of Pat Cabell. It was I who shared the series of articles on pace that were written by Cabell and published in 'ATM' in the late sixties with Sheldon Kovitz of Revere,Massachuseytts. In turn,when Andy asked Sheldon about a speed methodology Sheldon discussed the theory with Andy and provided him with the
tables that I had given him. Andy never asked about where it all came from which any good student should have. Andy was not a good student at Harvard. He spent too much time with racing and the Harvard Crimson.
Cabell did more than develop pace tables. In that series he set forth a methodology for computing the daily varient.His work is original and innovative and no one approaches his work on a theoretical level.
I should point about that Cabell thought that speed numbers obeyed a percentage relationship below 100 and a logarithmic like relationship above 100. Beyers scale above 100 has to be linear because there's not way to duplcate the table above 100 which is necessary when using the table within a computer. This means that when a Beyer number is a 120 ,for example, then a 118 is closet to 120 than a 100 is to a 98.
Andy coined the term 'Beyer' number however, I constantly inform my friends that it is the 'Cabell" number.The correct attribution was shared with Sheldon ,however, I'm not
really sure if he passed it along. I'll have to ask him.
I would like to point out that I first observed that a daily
variant calculated on a drying out track,for example, did so at a variable rate. To solve the problem Sheldon developed a solution using regression analysis (1970).Sheldon also developed an algorithm to factor in the wind when doing the daily-variant. Sheldon refused to give it to Andy because Andy would just publish it and make our adversaries better informed.
I have been a student of pace since 1963 and am as informed on this matter as well as anyone. I simply do not believe in educating my advversaries. Game theory provides that you know everything known to your adversaries about a given game,however,you are not obligated to educate them to your disadvantage. The Beyer number with it's notion of universality has impacted the price a favorite pays significantly for example.
I just spoke with Sheldon. He says he told Andy that I provided the tables which I got from 'ATM'.

Arnold T. Howe

[Speed Figure]

Arnold Howe, Nice post! Welcome.....:D

[Secretariat]

Just curious what happened to Cabell.

[Seabiscuit@AR]

Interesting stuff.

I have read three of Andy Beyey's books including Picking Winners. I have not opened it up to check for certain but my recollection is that Beyer covered himself a bit by stating that speed handicapping had been around for years prior to Picking Winners and he was not the inventor of something new but was simply happy to tell the world about it as he was a writer.

For all we know Pat Cabell was not the inventor of speed figures either and he might have gotten the ideas from someone else. Beyer gave the impression that time handicapping had been known to a few for quite some time when he wrote Picking Winners.

[Lefty]

Way before Beyer and Cabel there was Jules Finke and the "Speed Boys" These guys were around in the 30's or 40's. I remember reading about them in the 50's.

[kenwoodall]

What do think about using a track's daily workouts as a track variant?

[betovernetcapper]

Let me preface this by saying that I think Beyer deserves huge credit for bringing speed handicapping to the public. Having said that, I have a couple of copies of a book called Bob Hebert's Secrets of Handicapping, published in 1963 that provides a very detailed procedure for creating projected variants as opposed to using a par chart. :)

[Turntime]

Thanks for everybody's input (especially Arnold Howe), this was something thats bugged me for years. I agree that Beyer deserves the credit for making speed figures popular to the masses and thanks to Mr. Howes response we can also appreciate the contribution of a great theoretician in Pat Cabell. I also concur with Mr. Howe in not educating one's adversaries. Not too long ago this game was much easier to beat using speed figures and an assortment of handicapping techniques that were not well used by the public. The game is much tougher today and I know more than a few players who were successful for years that can't seem to win anymore. The professionals I know (as opposed to 'experts') all agree that its near impossible to win without the rebate. There are many players today with massive bankrolls that are not afraid to make $20,000 wagers on a break even or maybe a small losing proposition just to scoop up a 7%-10% kickback. The deck is stacked against the casual player, who is forced to find niches where the big fish don't swim. I've got stuff I wouldn't tell my own mother let alone a stranger. If you have a unique perception you're probably better off keeping it to yourself and making some money before someone else figures it out.
Or you could write a book.

[arnoldhowe]

Originally posted by kenwoodall
What do think about using a track's daily workouts as a track variant?

The idea never occurred to me, however, when doing a variant based upon the day's races the effect of wind is extremely important. The internal fractions need to be adjusted accordingly and this is difficult to do in practice. I attempt to determine if wind was a factor on a given day by assessing whether or not the early fractions were fast extremely or slow. If so I may choose a different race to evaluate the manner in which a horse handles a given pace scenario.