Layoff Angle

[goforgin]

Checking to see if anyone has a good layoff angle that they wouldn't mind sharing? Looking at a horse's first start coming off say a 90 or 180-day layoff. Looking for about 3 to 4 rules to follow. For example, trainer has a certain win percentage with layoff horses, or horse was in the money in first race back after a previous layoff in the PP's. I've done some reading on the subject, but didn't know if anyone on the board has had some success with any of what I've read or perhaps a home-grown angle?
Thx GoForGin.

[andymays]

If you look at the workout pattern and the first work (oldest workout) in the set of 5 is short and slow like 3f 38h and then the workouts get progressively longer and faster then the horse might need one.

If the first work (oldest work) is something like 5f 1:00 then the horse is probably pretty fit already and is more likely to fire off the layoff.

That's just a guideline though. We saw one come back on Preakness day where the workouts told you nothing.

[Hanover1]

3rd start back off layoff is an often overlooked angle.......

[GaryG]

If you follow only a few tracks you can get to know the winning patterns of the various trainers. Most work on a 6-8 day pattern, but Bob Tiller at Woodbine, a top layoff trainer, uses works 9-10 days apart with the last work 7-10 days prior to the race.

[WaHoo]

I like a horse that has had 3 workouts in the last 20 days or less, i do like to see them improve their time from each w/o from 3rd w/o and really like to see their last w/o 5 furlongs

[JohnGalt1]

One secondary thing I do with a horse off a long lay off -- 6+ months -- is look up the sire's rating for first time starters. A long lay off is similar to a first start. If Sire Stats rates the sire as an A or B I will be more likely to consider than a D or F.

Primarily I look at work outs, trainer pct., and races after similar lay offs to see if the horse will be competitive with the field.

[lamboguy]

if you are looking at horses that are 6 yo and upwards that have not run in 6 or more months, don't ever bet the horse until he has run a good second or win no matter how good his prior form was or how great he worked.

[andymays]

To give you an example, tomorrow at Hollywood Park in the second race the #7 Tequila Blues last raced on September 12th of 2009 at Fairplex park and finished 4th for Trainer Stacy Young. Thursay he is coming back for Craig Lewis. There are six workouts in the set showing and the oldest is on April 9th where he went 5f in 1:00 3/5 handily (a work like that usually means he is already fairly fit and has worked unofficially elsewhere). After that he had a 4f 46 and change and then 4 consecutive 6f workouts one of which was 6f in 1:12 and change handily from the gate. This horse has also been gelded since his last.

One of the workout comments from a clocker I use says:

Moved pretty well throughout while never being asked. Finished up fairly strong in 24 3/5 while appearing to have something left in reserve.


It's a pretty good bet that this one is going to fire his best shot off the layoff.

[cnollfan]

Maiden Special Weight race or high-priced Maiden Claiming, lightly raced, long layoff. Longer the better. Best if horse took some betting action in previous race(s) versus a big field.

[Stillriledup]

3rd start back off layoff is an often overlooked angle.......

I'm a huge fan of this, especially if it looked like the horse was 'freshened' the right way (as opposed to a forced freshening) and he seems to have two 'even' efforts. A horse like that could be ready to peak 3rd time off the layoff.

[WaHoo]

cdx0520 3rd race mds turf

#4 Ballet Rouse 10:1 off 182 days, has had 3 w/o in last 20 days and has had 7 w/o since apr8 and worked out every 6 days. the last 4 w/o were 5furlongs. has regressed some on time. has had 3 turf races, switching distance Shorter.
I'll watch the odds if they stay around 9:1 or 10:1 will think it's a play and if odds go way up, i'll watch the exacta payoffs to see if she has a payoff of Less than $100 dollars to any horses Except the 2 lowest odds horses, if there's no exactas payouts under $100 i won't play the horse in a exacta. I want someone betting on this horse somewhere. odds, exacta, pick3.

[HPFridays]

To give you an example, tomorrow at Hollywood Park in the second race the #7 Tequila Blues last raced on September 12th of 2009 at Fairplex park and finished 4th for Trainer Stacy Young. Thursay he is coming back for Craig Lewis. There are six workouts in the set showing and the oldest is on April 9th where he went 5f in 1:00 3/5 handily (a work like that usually means he is already fairly fit and has worked unofficially elsewhere). After that he had a 4f 46 and change and then 4 consecutive 6f workouts one of which was 6f in 1:12 and change handily from the gate. This horse has also been gelded since his last.

One of the workout comments from a clocker I use says:

Moved pretty well throughout while never being asked. Finished up fairly strong in 24 3/5 while appearing to have something left in reserve.


It's a pretty good bet that this one is going to fire his best shot off the layoff.


I agree, Tequila Blues certainly looks live with this group.

[PhantomOnTour]

My pet angle is a well bet 2yr old who ran badly in his debut and then gets laid up. Bet him on his return at age 3 if he's been working regularly.

[andymays]

My pet angle is a well bet 2yr old who ran badly in his debut and then gets laid up. Bet him on his return at age 3 if he's been working regularly.


A grow up play!

You can get some drastic improvements from the time a 2yo runs in July and then is layed off and comes back in January or February.

[Light]

Checking to see if anyone has a good layoff angle that they wouldn't mind sharing?

Yeah,I have one. Don't bet them.

[GaryG]

The Myth of Tamtulia explains it quite well.

[xfile]

[33] http://fullcardreports.com/images/33.gif DAYS SINCE LAST RACE TRIPLE ANGLE

These babies can pay huge sometimes. In the exact moment this is written there were back to back winners that qualified for this angle and their win mutuels were $102.00 and $73.60!

Look for a horse who's days since last race (LST RCE) is in triple digits, is the highest days since last race in the field and is going off at 8-1 odds or higher.

The logic of facts is that sometimes the freshest horse will be the best horse that day. You will have fun with this one. I see it happening more at the smaller circuits but it can happen at any track.

Also look for races which have only 1 horse who has a days since last race number in triple digits. These are very easy to spot and the betting public will be very reluctant to bet this obvious layoff horse.

For fun, try hooking up the aforementioned "single/triple" horse together in an exacta with a horse who has days since last race in single digits (and going off at 8-1 or higher) like as described in angle 28.

[WaHoo]

cdx0520 3rd race mds turf

#4 Ballet Rouse 10:1 off 182 days, has had 3 w/o in last 20 days and has had 7 w/o since apr8 and worked out every 6 days. the last 4 w/o were 5furlongs. has regressed some on time. has had 3 turf races, switching distance Shorter.
I'll watch the odds if they stay around 9:1 or 10:1 will think it's a play and if odds go way up, i'll watch the exacta payoffs to see if she has a payoff of Less than $100 dollars to any horses Except the 2 lowest odds horses, if there's no exactas payouts under $100 i won't play the horse in a exacta. I want someone betting on this horse somewhere. odds, exacta, pick3.

#4 got 5th, looked bad in post parade, head bobbing, tail against her butt , looked a little better going into gate, no signs of betting that i could find.

So I only lost a win bet <g>

[JustRalph]

3rd start back off layoff is an often overlooked angle.......

Dave Schwartz where are you ?

[surfdog89]

For me I usually look at the trainer for horses coming off a long lay off.

Ron Ellis usually has them cranked up and ready to fire. Dan Hendricks is like Ellis. Joe Garcia sent out a horse and had the horse ready to win. It all depends on the trainer. Some trainers like to get 1 race or 2 into the horse before the horse is fit and has a chance to win. John Sadler not so much as with Doug O'Neil........ Ben Cecil looks out for long work outs with him. Hard to tell with AC or Fanning . If you know about any information about trainers. Please feel free to post what you know.

I like to see workout every 7 to 10 days.......... For me I look to see who the trainers before I fire my bet at the horse.

http://handicapperscorner.blogspot.com/

[andymays]

Light was right. Stay away! It's safer that way (and less expensive). ;)

[Fastracehorse]

Yeah,I have one. Don't bet them.

...................you are missing a large group of good payers.

Fresh in itself is an awesome angle.

fffastt

[Fastracehorse]

If you follow only a few tracks you can get to know the winning patterns of the various trainers. Most work on a 6-8 day pattern, but Bob Tiller at Woodbine, a top layoff trainer, uses works 9-10 days apart with the last work 7-10 days prior to the race.

.......................Tiller has been hot!

fffastt

[Light]

That's fine if you are zeroed in on a hot trainer,but in general betting horses off 3 or 4 months or longer is a very poor investment. Their ROI when I last checked was something like -50%.

[ClassTrumpsSpeed]

Checking to see if anyone has a good layoff angle that they wouldn't mind sharing? Looking at a horse's first start coming off say a 90 or 180-day layoff. Looking for about 3 to 4 rules to follow. For example, trainer has a certain win percentage with layoff horses, or horse was in the money in first race back after a previous layoff in the PP's. I've done some reading on the subject, but didn't know if anyone on the board has had some success with any of what I've read or perhaps a home-grown angle?
Thx GoForGin.

No such thing as a true layoff anymore, due to indoor training methods, specifically a treadmill on which horses can run up to 45 mph (not in use until about seven years ago). Used to be they had to condition them in front of the clockers; not anymore. Same is true of first-timers.

If the horse is entered "normally" off a layoff, that's a good sign. If it's not a gelding, and has breeding value, you can be pretty sure they wouldn't risk that in a $12.5k claimer.

Weak opposition and a favorable pace scenario, plus works, are also what I look at.

[Fastracehorse]

That's fine if you are zeroed in on a hot trainer,but in general betting horses off 3 or 4 months or longer is a very poor investment. Their ROI when I last checked was something like -50%.

..........................many trainers win % is their highest stat up to 6 month layoffs.

Some are incredible off over a year.

Many people think like you - they want to see a race.


fffastt

[Light]

Do the math. A very good layoff trainer wins around 20% off 90+days away. Consider that the payoffs are usually very chalky because layoff winners

A) Have trainers that are well known to the public to be good with layoffs and
B) those horses usually have very good works and
C) those horses usually have good past credentials.

If you bet 100 races,that's a $200 investment. If you get back an average of $6 per win * 20% winners = $120 returned.That's -40% ROI.

Therefore,I'd say,if you want a layoff angle that pays,bet against the chalky layoff horse. When RA lost off a 6 month layoff,she was a prime example of what I am talking about.

[Fastracehorse]

Do the math. A very good layoff trainer wins around 20% off 90+days away. Consider that the payoffs are usually very chalky because layoff winners

A) Have trainers that are well known to the public to be good with layoffs and
B) those horses usually have very good works and
C) those horses usually have good past credentials.

If you bet 100 races,that's a $200 investment. If you get back an average of $6 per win * 20% winners = $120 returned.That's -40% ROI.

Therefore,I'd say,if you want a layoff angle that pays,bet against the chalky layoff horse. When RA lost off a 6 month layoff,she was a prime example of what I am talking about.

Do the math: $140 winner @ Wdb this last Sat with top jock, - layoff on grass
$30 winner @ Hol this last Sat - layoff on grass

Say, the layoff player lost 50 in a row prior - and 50 in a row after..................

fffastt

[eastie]

3 year olds first start as a 3 year old. add 15 points to their highest 2 year old beyer at the the distance, and if it's higher than what the rest of the field is usually running.....go bet.

[Maidenman]

New York base trainer is one of the best. Most of his horse are almost a sure bet when they are coming back.

[ClassTrumpsSpeed]

3 year olds first start as a 3 year old. add 15 points to their highest 2 year old beyer at the the distance, and if it's higher than what the rest of the field is usually running.....go bet.

Shhhh.

I add twelve, btw.

[ClassTrumpsSpeed]

This also works in reverse, btw.

When a horse hits eight, it usually loses a few points a year, through age ten, then it's just sad to watch.

[Light]

Do the math: $140 winner @ Wdb this last Sat with top jock, - layoff on grass
$30 winner @ Hol this last Sat - layoff on grass

Say, the layoff player lost 50 in a row prior - and 50 in a row after..................

fffastt

Dude,get real. As I previously demonstrated,layoff horses are -40% to -50% ROI. By the time that bomb horse comes around you would have given up waiting for that bomb long before to save your ROI.Nobody has the discipline or stomach to play like this in reality. Only on paper.

[Fastracehorse]

New York base trainer is one of the best. Most of his horse are almost a sure bet when they are coming back.

................but yah, gr8 barn.

fffastt

[Light]

BTW,this reminds me of a horseplayer I know who kept playing the same numbers in a pk6. The day it hit,he claims he was sick and couldn't get to the track. So maybe these "waiting for Godot" kind of plays have some merit to them but its not a very practical (or enjoyable) way to play,nor would 99.9% of people have any patience for it. .

[PhantomOnTour]

Light is correct about this, imo. Unless you have a pet trainer angle at work (which he stated before) the layoff bet is a losing one. Reading into works and pp's alone will not show a profit...you need an angle in these spots, and it's almost always a trainer angle.

[Jeff P]

Here's what I have for calendar Year 2009...

First, all starters in the database:

Data Window Settings:
999 Divisor Odds Cap: None

SQL: SELECT * FROM STARTERHISTORY
WHERE STARTSLIFETIME >= 1


Data Summary Win Place Show
Mutuel Totals 625715.90 635167.50 639823.00
Bet -838838.00-838838.00-838838.00
Gain -213122.10-203670.50-199015.00

Wins 52787 105014 154369
Plays 419419 419419 419419
PCT .1259 .2504 .3681

ROI 0.7459 0.7572 0.7627
Avg Mut 11.85 6.05 4.14

Next, the above sample broken out by start #X after layoff...
By: Xth Start Off Of Layoff

Starts Gain Bet Roi Wins Plays Pct Impact
1 -19718.00 57566.00 0.6575 2768 28783 .0962 0.7641
2 -20055.40 59188.00 0.6612 3258 29594 .1101 0.8747
3 -15418.20 57708.00 0.7328 3634 28854 .1259 1.0007
4 -12916.70 55768.00 0.7684 3757 27884 .1347 1.0706
5 -11101.00 52768.00 0.7896 3569 26384 .1353 1.0748
6 -11389.10 49242.00 0.7687 3353 24621 .1362 1.0821
7 -9812.20 44884.00 0.7814 3101 22442 .1382 1.0979
8 -10705.90 41366.00 0.7412 2684 20683 .1298 1.0311
9 -8993.80 36994.00 0.7569 2438 18497 .1318 1.0473
10+ -7736.20 33272.00 0.7675 2220 16636 .1334 1.0603
N/L -85275.60 350082.00 0.7564 22005 175041 .1257 0.9989Note about the above sample... I'm defining a "layoff" as having raced at least once followed by time away from the races >= 120 days... Other data samples that I've run in the past where layoff def is given a different time period/number of days (45, 60, 90, etc.) all show similar results in that there really isn't anything magical about a "3rd start off of a layoff."

In almost every large data sample that I've looked at, horses making start # 4, 5, 6, etc. after a layoff actually perform better than those making their 3rd start... The row labeled "N/L" contains data for horses that have never had a "layoff" (120 day break) in their records.

About a year ago (if memory serves) I posted a similar sample where the layoff def was 360 days... All starters making xth start number 1 off of that type of layoff had horrible results... probably findable via a search if you are interested.


-jp

.

[Light]

Here's what I have for calendar Year 2009...


ROI 0.7459 0.7572 0.7627
Avg Mut 11.85 6.05 4.14




My speculation is that the average player considering a layoff horse will take note of the odds and generally feel uncomfortable taking anything over 5-1. Therefore,I see the ave mut being somewhere around $6 for this group. I was wondering if you had these plays broken down by odds?

[salty]

My speculation is that the average player considering a layoff horse will take note of the odds and generally feel uncomfortable taking anything over 5-1. Therefore,I see the ave mut being somewhere around $6 for this group. I was wondering if you had these plays broken down by odds?

I think that i would rather take nothing under 5-1? If you could filter out all the horses that go off at 5-1 and under then you might have a better roi. I for one would never ever ever take a horse that has been gone for a hundred days if they were under 5-1. That is one of my top bet against type. Who in their right mind would be playing a short priced horse off a 4-6 month vacation? The only horse i remember seeing at a year and a half long layoff winning as the favorite was on belmont day last year.

[DeanT]

My speculation is that the average player considering a layoff horse will take note of the odds and generally feel uncomfortable taking anything over 5-1. Therefore,I see the ave mut being somewhere around $6 for this group. I was wondering if you had these plays broken down by odds?
Nowadays you have to watch the betdowns on long layoff horses. The prevailing thought (in handicapping books and elsewhere for the last 25 years) is that they are bad bets (i.e. horses off 100 days or more), but sometimes we see heavy chalk on these layoffs. Conventional wisdom says pitch them, but that is not a good move. In fact, heavy faves are close to ROI+ in those instances. Horses under 2-1 off 100+ days are not horrible bets at all. Longshots off long layoffs are, like longshots generally, poor bets.

[Space Monkey]

IMO horses are winning off prolonged layoffs more now than ever. But I'm just playing major tracks. While the overall ROI is poor, I suspect the ROI from horses running at major tracks with top trainers is quite different. I used to toss these types, but not anymore. Show me a good workout pattern and prior races at par, and I'm in.

[Jeff P]

Calendar year 2009... layoff def is 120 days... post time odds <= 5/1

Data Window Settings:
999 Divisor Odds Cap: None

SQL: SELECT * FROM STARTERHISTORY
WHERE STARTSLIFETIME > 0
AND ODDS <= 5


Data Summary Win Place Show
Mutuel Totals 244132.00 251065.80 257908.20
Bet -294394.00-294394.00-294394.00
Gain -50262.00 -43328.20 -36485.80

Wins 37990 67844 89368
Plays 147197 147197 147197
PCT .2581 .4609 .6071

ROI 0.8293 0.8528 0.8761
Avg Mut 6.43 3.70 2.89
By: Xth Start Off Of Layoff

Starts Gain Bet Roi Wins Plays Pct Impact
1 -3283.20 15354.00 0.7862 1810 7677 .2358 0.9135
2 -4031.60 19226.00 0.7903 2357 9613 .2452 0.9500
3 -3432.70 20198.00 0.8300 2668 10099 .2642 1.0236
4 -3086.10 20534.00 0.8497 2754 10267 .2682 1.0393
5 -3186.30 19602.00 0.8375 2592 9801 .2645 1.0247
6 -2677.40 18448.00 0.8549 2474 9224 .2682 1.0392
7 -2567.90 16882.00 0.8479 2272 8441 .2692 1.0429
8 -2912.40 15282.00 0.8094 1961 7641 .2566 0.9944
9 -2272.20 13536.00 0.8321 1789 6768 .2643 1.0242
10+ -1884.60 12142.00 0.8448 1598 6071 .2632 1.0199
N/L -20927.60 123190.00 0.8301 15715 61595 .2551 0.9885


-jp

.

[Hanover1]

My pet angle is a well bet 2yr old who ran badly in his debut and then gets laid up. Bet him on his return at age 3 if he's been working regularly.
My problem with this is simple...if he was well bet first out, then works, and inside info, drove the colts odds down. If he gets beat and does not come right back, then we have a sore horse. Alot of times its bucked shins, and they can come back after pin firing in 2-3 months max. Seldom will we set on a colt that long (waiting until they are 3) if he shows he's a runner at 4 1/2f. If he gets beat and was a favorite first out, and is sound, its time to re-enter asap. Especially if it was a bad trip/mount/racing luck, ect...aint teaching them nothing settin on them like that......finding out why he was laid up that long is the key......

[cnollfan]

Great stuff, Jeff. Thanks.

[Fastracehorse]

BTW,this reminds me of a horseplayer I know who kept playing the same numbers in a pk6. The day it hit,he claims he was sick and couldn't get to the track. So maybe these "waiting for Godot" kind of plays have some merit to them but its not a very practical (or enjoyable) way to play,nor would 99.9% of people have any patience for it. .

Forget the $140 winner, who in their right mind would play that heavy a mutuel anyhow; $30 is too much for some people.

So let's go to Light's postulate: good barns would have a -50 % ROI.

1) Postulate trainer #1 Mott: anybody heard of him?
+ 180 days - I believe the sample size was about 46; anybody playing CD today would have the stat.

24 % winners: $2.32 ROI

2) Postulate trainer #2 Lynch: obscure as well
small sample of 30: 27 % winners: $2.60 ROI
61 -180 days

There's about 76 plays with good trainers leading to a + ROI; forget the $140 winner and the $30 winner cuz nobody plays price horses - or they go broke ( or do they?)

fffastt

[Fastracehorse]

Light is correct about this, imo. Unless you have a pet trainer angle at work (which he stated before) the layoff bet is a losing one. Reading into works and pp's alone will not show a profit...you need an angle in these spots, and it's almost always a trainer angle.

IMO,

fffastt

[Fastracehorse]

Here's what I have for calendar Year 2009...

First, all starters in the database:

Data Window Settings:
999 Divisor Odds Cap: None

SQL: SELECT * FROM STARTERHISTORY
WHERE STARTSLIFETIME >= 1


Data Summary Win Place Show
Mutuel Totals 625715.90 635167.50 639823.00
Bet -838838.00-838838.00-838838.00
Gain -213122.10-203670.50-199015.00

Wins 52787 105014 154369
Plays 419419 419419 419419
PCT .1259 .2504 .3681

ROI 0.7459 0.7572 0.7627
Avg Mut 11.85 6.05 4.14

Next, the above sample broken out by start #X after layoff...
By: Xth Start Off Of Layoff

Starts Gain Bet Roi Wins Plays Pct Impact
1 -19718.00 57566.00 0.6575 2768 28783 .0962 0.7641
2 -20055.40 59188.00 0.6612 3258 29594 .1101 0.8747
3 -15418.20 57708.00 0.7328 3634 28854 .1259 1.0007
4 -12916.70 55768.00 0.7684 3757 27884 .1347 1.0706
5 -11101.00 52768.00 0.7896 3569 26384 .1353 1.0748
6 -11389.10 49242.00 0.7687 3353 24621 .1362 1.0821
7 -9812.20 44884.00 0.7814 3101 22442 .1382 1.0979
8 -10705.90 41366.00 0.7412 2684 20683 .1298 1.0311
9 -8993.80 36994.00 0.7569 2438 18497 .1318 1.0473
10+ -7736.20 33272.00 0.7675 2220 16636 .1334 1.0603
N/L -85275.60 350082.00 0.7564 22005 175041 .1257 0.9989Note about the above sample... I'm defining a "layoff" as having raced at least once followed by time away from the races >= 120 days... Other data samples that I've run in the past where layoff def is given a different time period/number of days (45, 60, 90, etc.) all show similar results in that there really isn't anything magical about a "3rd start off of a layoff."

In almost every large data sample that I've looked at, horses making start # 4, 5, 6, etc. after a layoff actually perform better than those making their 3rd start... The row labeled "N/L" contains data for horses that have never had a "layoff" (120 day break) in their records.

About a year ago (if memory serves) I posted a similar sample where the layoff def was 360 days... All starters making xth start number 1 off of that type of layoff had horrible results... probably findable via a search if you are interested.


-jp

.

..............nice try; but the point is if a horse is a contender on the merit of his PP's he is a contender today despite a lengthy layoff. I'm sure most stats are horrible if U mix in the no chance horses with the chance horse; as there are alot more non contenders.

fffastt

[Jeff P]

Nice Try?

Methinks ye be trying to read something into my post that's not there...

Did I say anywhere in my post that there aren't valid reasons to bet horses coming back off of a layoff?

No.

What I did was post results from an ALL button sample broken out by Xth Start Off Of Layoff.

The only thing I said about those results was that there's nothing magical about start number 3 coming back after a layoff. The numbers from the sample tell the story.

What did you think I was trying to say?


-jp

.

[xfile]

[33] http://fullcardreports.com/images/33.gif DAYS SINCE LAST RACE TRIPLE ANGLE

These babies can pay huge sometimes. In the exact moment this is written there were back to back winners that qualified for this angle and their win mutuels were $102.00 and $73.60!

Look for a horse who's days since last race (LST RCE) is in triple digits, is the highest days since last race in the field and is going off at 8-1 odds or higher.

The logic of facts is that sometimes the freshest horse will be the best horse that day. You will have fun with this one. I see it happening more at the smaller circuits but it can happen at any track.

Also look for races which have only 1 horse who has a days since last race number in triple digits. These are very easy to spot and the betting public will be very reluctant to bet this obvious layoff horse.

For fun, try hooking up the aforementioned "single/triple" horse together in an exacta with a horse who has days since last race in single digits (and going off at 8-1 or higher) like as described in angle 28.



This angle takes the 1st race of the Monmouth meet at 9-1 odds (LAST RACE = 251 DAYS AGO = MOST IN FIELD)

12 DREAM WALTZ (15/6) http://www.fullcardreports.com/images/shot.gif http://www.fullcardreports.com/images/wet2.gif http://www.fullcardreports.com/images/ftc.gif http://www.fullcardreports.com/images/TA.gif
http://www.fullcardreports.com/images/17a.gif http://www.fullcardreports.com/images/33.gif
COLONIAL FARM (TTR - 67) - MTH(7/9/D) (0/0/x) (0/0/x)
DEFRERE/KRIS S. NJ MCBURNEY PATRICK B/FIGUEROA O {7-0-0}
[EXOTIC LONGSHOT POINTS: 32] (4/2007 Age 3,C)

[Fastracehorse]

Nice Try?

Methinks ye be trying to read something into my post that's not there...

Did I say anywhere in my post that there aren't valid reasons to bet horses coming back off of a layoff?

No.

What I did was post results from an ALL button sample broken out by Xth Start Off Of Layoff.

The only thing I said about those results was that there's nothing magical about start number 3 coming back after a layoff. The numbers from the sample tell the story.

What did you think I was trying to say?


-jp

.

........................................my bad,

fffastt

[goforgin]

Thanks to everyone that replied to my initial post. Yesterday Saturday 22nd winners on layoffs:
Won: 1st Layoff / 2nd / 3rd (Note: a couple of the 1sts were 1st time starters).
Churchill: 2 / 2 / 2
Arlington: 2 / 3 / 3
Calder: 3 / 1 / 1
Belmont: 2 / 2 / 3
Monmouth: 9 / 1 / 0
I know Monmouth was opening day, but here were a few nice win prices on the nine 1st layoffs: $20, $16, $38, $12, $29, $18, $26.
I understand as the meet goes on this number will decrease, probably more in line with the other tracks I listed. But, still would seem to make good sense to have a 1st layoff angle or trainer angle for horses that are making their 1st start after having had a break in the action.
Thx again, GoForGin

[ClassTrumpsSpeed]

Thanks to everyone that replied to my initial post. Yesterday Saturday 22nd winners on layoffs:
Won: 1st Layoff / 2nd / 3rd (Note: a couple of the 1sts were 1st time starters).
Churchill: 2 / 2 / 2
Arlington: 2 / 3 / 3
Calder: 3 / 1 / 1
Belmont: 2 / 2 / 3
Monmouth: 9 / 1 / 0
I know Monmouth was opening day, but here were a few nice win prices on the nine 1st layoffs: $20, $16, $38, $12, $29, $18, $26.
I understand as the meet goes on this number will decrease, probably more in line with the other tracks I listed. But, still would seem to make good sense to have a 1st layoff angle or trainer angle for horses that are making their 1st start after having had a break in the action.
Thx again, GoForGin

I am convinced some trainers like to arken a horse's form just prior to a layoff, to jack up the price on the return. It's very e4asy to do, just add a few workouts-within-races to a horse with reduced training intensity.

[Fastracehorse]

Thanks to everyone that replied to my initial post. Yesterday Saturday 22nd winners on layoffs:
Won: 1st Layoff / 2nd / 3rd (Note: a couple of the 1sts were 1st time starters).
Churchill: 2 / 2 / 2
Arlington: 2 / 3 / 3
Calder: 3 / 1 / 1
Belmont: 2 / 2 / 3
Monmouth: 9 / 1 / 0
I know Monmouth was opening day, but here were a few nice win prices on the nine 1st layoffs: $20, $16, $38, $12, $29, $18, $26.
I understand as the meet goes on this number will decrease, probably more in line with the other tracks I listed. But, still would seem to make good sense to have a 1st layoff angle or trainer angle for horses that are making their 1st start after having had a break in the action.
Thx again, GoForGin

........................super ROI's in DRF yesterday; Terry Jordan: Wdb trainer ( 24 starts; 46 % wins; $3.50 ROI ). The amazing stat was that the layoff was greater than 6 months.

That is incredible even over a small sample.

This a good thread because there are alot of public handicappers that want to see a race b4 they will tout a horse - but how will U ever get a good $ if U don't predict?

fffastt

[Light]

I know Monmouth was opening day, but here were a few nice win prices on the nine 1st layoffs: $20, $16, $38, $12, $29, $18, $26.


That's because the majority of the runners on the card were layoff horses.

[ClassTrumpsSpeed]

........................super ROI's in DRF yesterday; Terry Jordan: Wdb trainer ( 24 starts; 46 % wins; $3.50 ROI ). The amazing stat was that the layoff was greater than 6 months.

That is incredible even over a small sample.

This a good thread because there are alot of public handicappers that want to see a race b4 they will tout a horse - but how will U ever get a good $ if U don't predict?

fffastt


With the money they save by tossing laid-off horses?

[ClassTrumpsSpeed]

That's because the majority of the runners on the card were layoff horses.

This is particularly true at Monmouth, where horses "winter" a lot at Pha, sometimes not running a lick. Many of those return to their NJ figs once they ship back too. Frustrating as hell to deal with.

Opening day is also when a laid-off horse is more likely to be "popped." Same is true for the big-day undercards, or smaller-track cards on those days, due to bigger pools.

[Light]

Jeff

Thanks for the stats. So according to your numbers,layoff horses greater than 5-1 are only winning at around 5% with a -30% ROI.

My own stats are poorer than that when I look at a track I keep stats on (only when I play),so my database is much more limited. On the days I played Aqu inner this year, there were 190 horses off 110 days or more. (thats my personal cutoff). Incredibly only 13 won. $380 invested, $106 returned. -72% ROI. Of those 190, 130 were greater than 5-1. One horse won paying $28. Of the remaining 60 you had 12 winners. 20% hit rate,invest $120, get back $77.60 for a -35% ROI. My stats from last year at Aqu inner are similar.

I also used to believe that not to bet layoff horses was an outdated theory. But stats back it up. However, one area I do consider layoff horses is in serial bets. Just takes one of them to bust a nice pk3,4 or 6 you have going. There I consider the odds/hit rate. So if I think a horse will be over 5-1, I'll take my chances against him winning with a 5% clip and throw him out. Under 5-1,its a 20% win clip so I'll look closer. Otherwise its great just to throw them out with ease on win bets. If Fastracehorse@DRF thinks he can make a profit on the win end,then lets see him prove it with stats or selections.

[Fastracehorse]

With the money they save by tossing laid-off horses?

............U leave the blinkers on.

fffastt

[Fastracehorse]

Jeff

Thanks for the stats. So according to your numbers,layoff horses greater than 5-1 are only winning at around 5% with a -30% ROI.

My own stats are poorer than that when I look at a track I keep stats on (only when I play),so my database is much more limited. On the days I played Aqu inner this year, there were 190 horses off 110 days or more. (thats my personal cutoff). Incredibly only 13 won. $380 invested, $106 returned. -72% ROI. Of those 190, 130 were greater than 5-1. One horse won paying $28. Of the remaining 60 you had 12 winners. 20% hit rate,invest $120, get back $77.60 for a -35% ROI. My stats from last year at Aqu inner are similar.

I also used to believe that not to bet layoff horses was an outdated theory. But stats back it up. However, one area I do consider layoff horses is in serial bets. Just takes one of them to bust a nice pk3,4 or 6 you have going. There I consider the odds/hit rate. So if I think a horse will be over 5-1, I'll take my chances against him winning with a 5% clip and throw him out. Under 5-1,its a 20% win clip so I'll look closer. Otherwise its great just to throw them out with ease on win bets. If Fastracehorse@DRF thinks he can make a profit on the win end,then lets see him prove it with stats or selections.


............it's obvious you are wrong that betting layoff types cannot be profitable. It's too bad that you are all too willing to intentionally misinterpret data to make a point. That is, you are departing from intellectual debate.

fffastt

[JustRalph]

Trainer specific on the 3rd off a layoff theory for sure.

For a short period I tracked some Long shot trainers at MNR

This was back in 2003 I believe. There was one trainer that consistently brought in 3rd back off a layoff horses in the 20-50 dollar range.

First big score I ever made was on one of them.

There was a pattern too...... 1st back, sprint race, 2nd back, longest race they could find....over a mile........ 3rd back......right at a mile at long odds after fading huge in the prior two races.

The pattern changed after about a year........I stopped following it. Not enough plays.........

[Light]

............it's obvious you are wrong that betting layoff types cannot be profitable. It's too bad that you are all too willing to intentionally misinterpret data to make a point. That is, you are departing from intellectual debate.

fffastt

Talk is cheap. Jeff and I have given statistical proof that betting layoff horses is a huge loss. You keep pointing to isolated incidents to make your case which proves nothing.For every isolated incident you have to bolster your position of layoff horses, I have 10 to the contrary.You got something that shows a profit,then prove it with something more substantial.

[George Sands]

For me I usually look at the trainer for horses coming off a long lay off.

Ron Ellis usually has them cranked up and ready to fire. Dan Hendricks is like Ellis.

Dan Hendricks has them cranked off layoffs? Are you sure you aren't thinking of someone else?

[Fastracehorse]

Talk is cheap. Jeff and I have given statistical proof that betting layoff horses is a huge loss. You keep pointing to isolated incidents to make your case which proves nothing.For every isolated incident you have to bolster your position of layoff horses, I have 10 to the contrary.You got something that shows a profit,then prove it with something more substantial.

..........U said that!

U are silly.

fffastt

[castaway01]

Talk is cheap. Jeff and I have given statistical proof that betting layoff horses is a huge loss. You keep pointing to isolated incidents to make your case which proves nothing.For every isolated incident you have to bolster your position of layoff horses, I have 10 to the contrary.You got something that shows a profit,then prove it with something more substantial.

I loathe to get involved in a conversation with you, but who would bet ALL layoff horses? The key is to pick out the right ones, and you can make money at it.

[Light]

The key is to pick out the right ones, and you can make money at it.

So all I have to do in horseracing is pick the right horse! Holy Cow! This guy is a genuis.

[cnollfan]

who would bet ALL layoff horses? The key is to pick out the right ones, and you can make money at it.

This is a point Mark Cramer made in Thoroughbred Cycles -- finding a profitable subset within an unprofitable set. While in this thread it applies to horses coming off long layoffs, it can be applied to many distasteful form patterns.

I like lightly-raced maidens coming off exceedingly long layoffs.

[castaway01]

This is a point Mark Cramer made in Thoroughbred Cycles -- finding a profitable subset within an unprofitable set. While in this thread it applies to horses coming off long layoffs, it can be applied to many distasteful form patterns.

I like lightly-raced maidens coming off exceedingly long layoffs.


Okay, if it works for you, go for it. Actually, just the sheer fact that the large majority of layoff horses are losers should only provide more value for the spot plays when you identify who might win.

For example, someone mentioned Terry Jordan winning at 46% with a huge ROI...I've done really well with those. I don't care if he stops winning tomorrow or if all layoff horses lose at a terrible ROI...since last spring I've been watching and betting Jordan and I've done well for myself, and I'm not giving the money back (unless I bet 20 in a row and they all lose, and I won't). There are other situations like this, but you just have to find them.

[Fastracehorse]

Okay, if it works for you, go for it. Actually, just the sheer fact that the large majority of layoff horses are losers should only provide more value for the spot plays when you identify who might win.

For example, someone mentioned Terry Jordan winning at 46% with a huge ROI...I've done really well with those. I don't care if he stops winning tomorrow or if all layoff horses lose at a terrible ROI...since last spring I've been watching and betting Jordan and I've done well for myself, and I'm not giving the money back (unless I bet 20 in a row and they all lose, and I won't). There are other situations like this, but you just have to find them.

I have other examples of barns with incredible records off layoffs; and U are right, if U like an angle, the horse still has to fit the requirement that it can run with the bunch it is entered with today.

That's common sense.

Brown, Chad C. : 61-180 days: 47 starts, 30 % winners, $2.61 ROI

fffastt

[Tom]

Talk is cheap. Jeff and I have given statistical proof that betting layoff horses is a huge loss. You keep pointing to isolated incidents to make your case which proves nothing.For every isolated incident you have to bolster your position of layoff horses, I have 10 to the contrary.You got something that shows a profit,then prove it with something more substantial.

Are you suggesting that anyone would just bet blindly all layoff horses?
That is what the study is showing you the results of. Looking at individual horses in the sample may well lead you to profitable sub-sets, as Ralph just showed. I have trainers who show a flat bet profit on layoff horses. That is not cheap talk, that is a fact of life - very few people bet blindly on all the races in a sample.

So all I have to do in horseracing is pick the right horse! Holy Cow! This guy is a genuis. That is NOT what he said. Your reply was the cheap talk.

[Light]

I have trainers who show a flat bet profit on layoff horses.


That's backfitting which is similar to redboarding.

[Tom]

And just what do you call your data you provided?

My own stats are poorer than that when I look at a track I keep stats on (only when I play),so my database is much more limited. On the days I played Aqu inner this year, there were 190 horses off 110 days or more. (thats my personal cutoff). Incredibly only 13 won. $380 invested, $106 returned. -72% ROI. Of those 190, 130 were greater than 5-1. One horse won paying $28. Of the remaining 60 you had 12 winners. 20% hit rate,invest $120, get back $77.60 for a -35% ROI. My stats from last year at Aqu inner are similar.


This is exactly what I am doing.....:rolleyes:

[Light]

That's not what I was doing. I was doing my data in real time. Yours is cherry picking from past records that you did not take part in personally.

You,Xfile and Fast, can take any trainer you want or any angle you want with printed positive ROI's on layoffs from Bris or DRF and try them out in real time. I'm sure your results will not be fruitfull. How do I know? Because I've tried it.

When a trainer or angle is shown to be positive,you have no idea how it achieved that status because there are no details. It could have been one price horse and the rest is a loss.

[Tom]

When a trainer or angle is shown to be positive,you have no idea how it achieved that status because there are no details. It could have been one price horse and the rest is a loss.

You assume incorrectly. I NEVER use blind stats. I ALWAYS look at all the data and throw out the biggest payoffs and compare the number that place to the number that win, as a check. Exactly as Mark Cramer describes in his research.

And you assume incorrectly that I bet that one single factor. Just because a trainer from my list has a layoff horse doesn't mean I will bet it. I use it as a positive factor instead of a negative factor.

As I said:
very few people bet blindly on all the races in a sample.

You saiid:
Talk is cheap. Jeff and I have given statistical proof that betting layoff horses is a huge loss.

And that is not true. You proved betting ALL layoff horse is a huge loss. you have to know what your statistics are telling you.

[Fastracehorse]

That's not what I was doing. I was doing my data in real time. Yours is cherry picking from past records that you did not take part in personally.

You,Xfile and Fast, can take any trainer you want or any angle you want with printed positive ROI's on layoffs from Bris or DRF and try them out in real time. I'm sure your results will not be fruitfull. How do I know? Because I've tried it.

When a trainer or angle is shown to be positive,you have no idea how it achieved that status because there are no details. It could have been one price horse and the rest is a loss.

So the logic goes: if Light was unsuccessful then fffast will be too.

Here are the D E T A I L S:

trainer
reasonable sample of layoff horses
high win %
+ ROI

fffastt

[Light]

I NEVER use blind stats. I ALWAYS look at all the data and throw out the biggest payoffs

And where do you get this specific database of information regarding layoff horses and their trainers?

[Tom]

HTR exports and charts. Every track, every day, every race.
this also allows me to go back and look at the PPS for each race.

If you never even look at the HTR program itself, the charts alone are worth the price a month.

[Light]

This is as good as saying:

"I make a profit playing #7's. I dont play them all the time,but only according to a system I have and I get my data from so and so".

Where is the proof that anyone who wants to specialize in layoff horses can make a profit on them?

[Tom]

I never said anyone would want to. I said I have some that show a flat bet profit over the years.

Good bye.

[Fastracehorse]

I never said anyone would want to. I said I have some that show a flat bet profit over the years.



Good bye.

I luv betting layoff horses; as alot of people think of them Lightly!

fffastt

[Fastracehorse]

This is as good as saying:

"I make a profit playing #7's. I dont play them all the time,but only according to a system I have and I get my data from so and so".

Where is the proof that anyone who wants to specialize in layoff horses can make a profit on them?

The Details:

The trainer: Alan E Goldberg ( notice the middle initial )
The layoff: + 180 days
The sample: 28
The win %: 29
The ROI: $3.37

Then his charge got up yesterday off a +180 day layoff and paid a modest $6 and something at Belmont. Happened today too in the first @ Bel I think it was with Galluscio training, another modest 2-1. The latter trainer has a negative ROI with the + 180 day layoff stat interestingly.

fffastt

[castaway01]

FFFFast, don't bother giving details away...Light will still say you're making it up, and you'll only hurt your prices.

[jamey1977]

Nowadays you have to watch the betdowns on long layoff horses. The prevailing thought (in handicapping books and elsewhere for the last 25 years) is that they are bad bets (i.e. horses off 100 days or more), but sometimes we see heavy chalk on these layoffs. Conventional wisdom says pitch them, but that is not a good move. In fact, heavy faves are close to ROI+ in those instances. Horses under 2-1 off 100+ days are not horrible bets at all. Longshots off long layoffs are, like longshots generally, poor bets.
I see what you mean. But 2 to 1's are bad bets too. Bet 20 2 to 1's. We will win 5 if we are lucky. Live longshots between 7 to 1 and 40 to 1 are our only chance to beat this game. Takes forever, I hate the losses to the bullcrap favorite. But, there is no other way. And the Longshots are actually overlays that the foolish public lets off at high odds. Second-time starters are also overlays that the dumb public forgets about. If longshots are bad bets. Then 2 to 1's are also. Because no one can win Long Term betting the damn things.

[classhandicapper]

Nowadays you have to watch the betdowns on long layoff horses. The prevailing thought (in handicapping books and elsewhere for the last 25 years) is that they are bad bets (i.e. horses off 100 days or more), but sometimes we see heavy chalk on these layoffs. Conventional wisdom says pitch them, but that is not a good move. In fact, heavy faves are close to ROI+ in those instances. Horses under 2-1 off 100+ days are not horrible bets at all. Longshots off long layoffs are, like longshots generally, poor bets.

I did that same exact study in the late 80s. It covered about 3 year period and showed similar results.

[Fastracehorse]

I did that same exact study in the late 80s. It covered about 3 year period and showed similar results.

..........assertion that odds dictate the value of the play.

Another factor to consider: tired horses.

Long meets like Woodbine's: about now; fresh is an excellent angle. Happened in A G-II today on the grass: horse off a year lay-off won at 7-1, and handily.

Happened yesterday too there: horse circled the field from last @ 4-1; for all intents and purposes a very long lay-off as well.

fffastt

[Robert Fischer]

If you want to think along with the money - u gotta know the reason a horse is getting money.

Is the horse a fan-favorite? Is this a sizable drop in class to the pre-layoff form?? , are we talking super-trainer???


If you have no clue (which probably excludes the fan-fav theory), then you pretty much have to respect it as fair value(or worse), and you have to think whether you should even be playing in a race where you have poor insight into the fav...

[classhandicapper]

When I reviewed all the horses from that period manually, it seemed to me that I would have had a hard time identifying a lot of the eventual winners as being clear cut ready based on their workouts, trainer record with layoffs, and whether the horse had previously run well fresh.

I think all those things matter, but more likely in the cases I am talking about someone on the inside played the horse off its PPs because they knew it was doing really well and would fire a good race. They weren't adding in a risk premium because they weren't sure like the rest of us.

[miy4ever]

That's not what I was doing. I was doing my data in real time. Yours is cherry picking from past records that you did not take part in personally.

You,Xfile and Fast, can take any trainer you want or any angle you want with printed positive ROI's on layoffs from Bris or DRF and try them out in real time. I'm sure your results will not be fruitfull. How do I know? Because I've tried it.

When a trainer or angle is shown to be positive,you have no idea how it achieved that status because there are no details. It could have been one price horse and the rest is a loss.

I agree, at least about XFile (Hi John). I was a member of FCR. The guy never showed a single bet, b4 the race. All he did was, after the race is over, post a video on his website. No personal offences.

[bisket]

i am more inclined to bet a horse off a layoff in california than other circuits. there a number of trainers out there that horses fire first two and then regress until given a few months off. eion harty comes to mind with this angle. i use this same angle for sprinters at the top levels at all the circuits....... first two and then a drop in form.

[jelly]

My pet angle is a well bet 2yr old who ran badly in his debut and then gets laid up. Bet him on his return at age 3 if he's been working regularly.



Yea agree,I cashed with rags to Riches on this move.

[miy4ever]

I too had Rags to Riches, but not by the same angle as you all are talking. I did it in my usual way (more losers that way; I'm a paper-n-pen type 'capper; still learning the game.).

Thanx.