View Full Version : belmont stakes
precocity
05-18-2010, 10:52 AM
looked at the Probables does anybody think Stately Victor can win this race?
nailed the tri in the derby, lost my azz in the preak, now i need to nail the Belmont? :ThmbUp:
precocity
05-18-2010, 05:44 PM
looked at the Probables does anybody think Stately Victor can win this race?
nailed the tri in the derby, lost my azz in the preak, now i need to nail the Belmont? :ThmbUp:
60 views?
OK i think i will play him in a 2$tri box with 4 others? :ThmbUp:
Edward DeVere
05-26-2010, 01:33 PM
I keep looking at the pps and I keep NOT seeing who's going to run with First Dude.
WinterTriangle
05-26-2010, 03:16 PM
looked at the Probables does anybody think Stately Victor can win this race?
Why don't you post why you think he can.
Then maybe you'll get some conversation going.
precocity
05-26-2010, 09:13 PM
Why don't you post why you think he can.
Then maybe you'll get some conversation going.
because in the Derby i put 200 across the Bord on him in now i want my money back!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! :lol: :lol:
nah seen his recent workouts looks strong? will see?
precocity
05-26-2010, 09:15 PM
I keep looking at the pps and I keep NOT seeing who's going to run with First Dude.
yep he could wire that field, but ice box my have something to say about that....
tucker6
05-26-2010, 09:17 PM
yep he could wire that field, but ice box my have something to say about that....
I believe Ice Box wins the race, but will be bet too low to be of value.
precocity
05-26-2010, 09:20 PM
I believe Ice Box wins the race, but will be bet too low to be of value.
agree thats why i want 6-1 on victor?
FlyinLate
05-26-2010, 10:15 PM
agree thats why i want 6-1 on victor?
6-1 wouldn't be asking too much.
The way I see it, at this point, Ice Box goes off in 3/2 to 2/1 range.
Drosselmeyer will receive attention as always, Fly Down after that last great performance, First Dude, etc.
I'll be going against Ice Box as his running style doesn't exactly scream 3/2 is a gift on me. Going to watch workouts and see how field progresses before I make any statement toward my selection.
precocity
05-26-2010, 10:47 PM
6-1 wouldn't be asking too much.
The way I see it, at this point, Ice Box goes off in 3/2 to 2/1 range.
Drosselmeyer will receive attention as always, Fly Down after that last great performance, First Dude, etc.
I'll be going against Ice Box as his running style doesn't exactly scream 3/2 is a gift on me. Going to watch workouts and see how field progresses before I make any statement toward my selection.
i see what ur saying, i ment 6-1 on victor? yeah ice box in first dude 2-1...5-2 range....
Dahoss9698
05-27-2010, 12:46 AM
With the possibility of little to no speed and considering he hasn't run a good race on dirt yet, what is appealing about Stately Victor?
WinterTriangle
05-27-2010, 01:02 AM
I'm one of those people who doesn't believe a horse will suddenly jump up and do something they havent done in the biggest race of their lives. Off the board 8.5F on dirt; off the board 9F on dirt; 2 races on poly which didn't surprise me, esp. at Keenland, his mom won there on turf, I'm not convinced he loves dirt. No tactical speed that I can see. For me, barely makes bottom of superfecta, maybe? I also think he will be way higher than 6-1 at post time.
could wire that field
last time, other than Da Tara, that a horse who went wire-to-wire in the Belmont? It's got to be at least 20 years?
PhantomOnTour
05-27-2010, 01:27 AM
Did Commendable wire the Belmont? Maybe 10yrs ago...Lukas.
Dahoss9698
05-27-2010, 01:34 AM
Did Commendable wire the Belmont? Maybe 10yrs ago...Lukas.
Very close. He sat right outside of a California speed horse whos name escapes me right now.
PhantomOnTour
05-27-2010, 02:10 AM
Drosselmeyer needs blinkers.
Fly Down will be very tough to beat in my opinion.
precocity
05-27-2010, 08:16 AM
With the possibility of little to no speed and considering he hasn't run a good race on dirt yet, what is appealing about Stately Victor?
because my name is victor :lol:
because in the Derby i put 200 across the Bord on him in now i want my money back!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! :lol: :lol:
nah seen his recent workouts looks strong? will see?
He still owes me one as well - but I honestly believe we haven't seen the best of the horse yet.
lamboguy
05-27-2010, 08:25 AM
because in the Derby i put 200 across the Bord on him in now i want my money back!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! :lol: :lol:
nah seen his recent workouts looks strong? will see?now that's a great reason!
i love uptown charlie brown, because he is training great right now, and unfortunately with a trainer that seems to know what to do with a good horse. unfortunate because poor alan seewald passed away, and that is how kiran got the horse.
precocity
05-27-2010, 08:31 AM
With the possibility of little to no speed and considering he hasn't run a good race on dirt yet, what is appealing about Stately Victor?
still waiting on his daddy's blood to kick in? he sure had speed!!!! Ghostzapper! :confused:
joanied
05-27-2010, 11:24 AM
I am kinda stuck on First Dude, Ice Box and Fly Down...but I am still mulling it over...although, I may toss Fly Down because I'm not sure he'll get the Belmont distance...I love First Dude's pedigree...and we know that Zito will have Ice Box perfect...the rest, I gotta think over.
hey, precocity...I could bet Stately Victor for a name too...have a mare named STATELY Morn :D
precocity
05-27-2010, 01:04 PM
I am kinda stuck on First Dude, Ice Box and Fly Down...but I am still mulling it over...although, I may toss Fly Down because I'm not sure he'll get the Belmont distance...I love First Dude's pedigree...and we know that Zito will have Ice Box perfect...the rest, I gotta think over.
hey, precocity...I could bet Stately Victor for a name too...have a mare named STATELY Morn :D
haha thats a great name, got the stately name going for ya. first dude really impressed me in the Preakness so he should be in the mix? but its funny nobody's bringing up make music for me? haha the only reason i bet summer bird last year because mine that bird was running :lol: only put 20 across but it paid nice...
Stevie Belmont
05-27-2010, 01:13 PM
I know I will be using First Dude and Make Music For Me.
joanied
05-27-2010, 03:40 PM
haha thats a great name, got the stately name going for ya. first dude really impressed me in the Preakness so he should be in the mix? but its funny nobody's bringing up make music for me? haha the only reason i bet summer bird last year because mine that bird was running :lol: only put 20 across but it paid nice...
It is a good name...her sire was a good stakes horse in CA., Swing Til Dawn and her dam was a Halo daughter named Hail the Crown. And she IS stately...I changed my avatar so you can see her (I don't know how to post photos)...she was younger in my avatar photo...she's now 20 years old and doing very well...this mare is my 'soul mate'.
If we were at Belmont together, we could go in half on a wager as a hunch bet:D on Stately Victor!
I gotta look at Make Music for me some more...but I don't think I'll come off of First Dude...
precocity
05-27-2010, 05:06 PM
It is a good name...her sire was a good stakes horse in CA., Swing Til Dawn and her dam was a Halo daughter named Hail the Crown. And she IS stately...I changed my avatar so you can see her (I don't know how to post photos)...she was younger in my avatar photo...she's now 20 years old and doing very well...this mare is my 'soul mate'.
If we were at Belmont together, we could go in half on a wager as a hunch bet:D on Stately Victor!
I gotta look at Make Music for me some more...but I don't think I'll come off of First Dude...
wow that's a beautiful grey roam mare? not to be funny before i saw your message i thought you put up a pic of skip away? you know like in tribute, Ur right stick with the play that's going to make you the money first dude, I remember before the preak you said you liked him I SHOULD OF TOOK NOTE??? but o well knowing me I'm going to try to beat him...good luck joanied but i will put him in a box..
Edward DeVere
05-27-2010, 06:37 PM
Very close. He sat right outside of a California speed horse whos name escapes me right now.
Hugh Hefner or something like that. I remember because I looked at the race and thought the race could easily be won on the front end.
There were only two possibilities, both longshots.
Of course, I bet on the wrong one.
joanied
05-27-2010, 09:01 PM
wow that's a beautiful grey roam mare? not to be funny before i saw your message i thought you put up a pic of skip away? you know like in tribute, Ur right stick with the play that's going to make you the money first dude, I remember before the preak you said you liked him I SHOULD OF TOOK NOTE??? but o well knowing me I'm going to try to beat him...good luck joanied but i will put him in a box..
Thanks, precocity...I'm very proud of her...one day looooong ago, she was laying in the pasture taking a snooze...and I said (to no one) "grey lady down" (from the movie of the same name)...so most often, I call her 'My grey lady'...she gave me some of the most gorgeous and intelligent foals...I loved all my broodmares, but the Grey Lady is very special.
Can you guess I enjoy yakkin' 'bout my horses:blush: ...
oh, if you take note of anyone here with race picks...I'm probably not the best one...too many experts here...or as expert as one can be when handicapping races:D
I see that Zito blew out Ice Box with a bullet...that scares me...me thinks Ice Box is ready for a big effort...still, I'm not off the First Dude yet!!
Best of luck to you too..."dude" ;)
joanied
05-29-2010, 12:39 PM
I guess there's another entry...Dave in Dixie!!
precocity
05-30-2010, 02:34 AM
I guess there's another entry...Dave in Dixie!!
who :lol:
lamboguy
05-30-2010, 07:52 AM
another good reason to like uptown charlie brown is that he is going to be 3rd or 4th choice in the race.
of course his resume is a little shy compared to the other's in the race with lack of wins and tripple crown experience. that can be made up though with him being trained by the top trainer in the country.
WinterTriangle
05-30-2010, 01:04 PM
another good reason to like uptown charlie brown is that he is going to be 3rd or 4th choice in the race.
Uptowncharlybrown.
In case somebody wants to look him up.;)
I've tried to look up horses somebody mentions sometimes and they have mis-spelled the name, I have to keep entering it in search fields until I hit on the right spelling. I missed a few times early with uptowncharlybrown, having put in uptowncharliebrown, who does exist but is an unraced quarterhorse.
bisket
05-30-2010, 01:23 PM
chucky and music will hit the board in my opinion.
joanied
05-30-2010, 01:54 PM
I don't think 'Chucky' will. IMO, he can't get the distance.
bisket
05-30-2010, 03:13 PM
I don't think 'Chucky' will. IMO, he can't get the distance.
i just think the others will finally back up enough, and he'll keep going at his same pace.
joanied
05-31-2010, 09:32 AM
i just think the others will finally back up enough, and he'll keep going at his same pace.
Hmmm...yes, that might happen and he'll get lucky...actually, IMO, it's pretty much an anyone can win it race.
cj's dad
05-31-2010, 11:29 AM
I'm looking for another Sarava or DaTara !!
joanied
05-31-2010, 12:28 PM
I wouldn't count out First Dude to go wire to wire...if he can maintain an easy lead, I think he can pull it off....ala Da Tara & Sarava!!
only11
05-31-2010, 01:42 PM
Interactif was entered today....thats my bet...
Dahoss9698
05-31-2010, 01:56 PM
Interactif was entered today....thats my bet...
Why?
RockHardTen1985
05-31-2010, 01:57 PM
The same owners of the Cali pig that ran like shit on Turf, I think they just wanted a horse to run. I give him 0 shot at winning.
joanied
05-31-2010, 02:20 PM
Interactif....naaaaahhhh!
WinterTriangle
05-31-2010, 05:22 PM
Interactif was entered today....thats my bet...
One of the things you have to handicap for this race is the track surface....it's called "big sandy" for a reason.:) And, we are talking about 12F on that, not 8F.
You are looking for a horse who has the right action to run 12F, tiring track, big turns.
To ME, turfy horses would seem to do poorly for this.
Most people are not used to handicapping 12F races as we have so few of them---- but you really have to be able to think about this, and not handicap it like it's 8.5F.
only11
05-31-2010, 05:41 PM
Why?
Dahoss the field is terrible...Interactiff could run all day...suckers will bet Ice Box at 2-1 thats a underlay...Why not?
Dahoss9698
05-31-2010, 06:05 PM
Dahoss the field is terrible...Interactiff could run all day...suckers will bet Ice Box at 2-1 thats a underlay...Why not?
That's some endorsement.
only11
05-31-2010, 06:19 PM
That's some endorsement.
what else you want me to say....1 1/2 dirt race for 3 year olds....whos your pick?The lone speed of the race?The closer?the horse that skipped the preakness?Come on...D'tara won this race..who cares.
Give me a breakdown of the race..
FlyinLate
05-31-2010, 06:49 PM
At this point I'm leaning towards First Dude.
Race seems almost completely void of speed.
All the deep closers always get smashed in Belmont because everyone always thinks "oohhh if that race were longer he woulda won his last".
I like Fly Down a good deal, but again he's likely going to be launching his bid near Ice Box into a likely lackluster pace.
Time will tell, waiting for draw, morning line, and officially PPs to release and some replay watching to do before I come to a decision.
Dahoss9698
05-31-2010, 06:51 PM
what else you want me to say....1 1/2 dirt race for 3 year olds....whos your pick?The lone speed of the race?The closer?the horse that skipped the preakness?Come on...D'tara won this race..who cares.
Give me a breakdown of the race..
You said you are betting him. I asked why and basically you told me why not. When I like a horse I usually have a reason. The horse has no shot to win, regardless of what D'Tara did 2 years ago. I'll give you a breakdown when the race is drawn.
only11
05-31-2010, 07:17 PM
You said you are betting him. I asked why and basically you told me why not. When I like a horse I usually have a reason. The horse has no shot to win, regardless of what D'Tara did 2 years ago. I'll give you a breakdown when the race is drawn.
The field is weak Ice Box at 2/1...Why not take a flyer? everyone has a opinion...i just cant understand how you could say he has no shot?
Dahoss9698
05-31-2010, 07:26 PM
The field is weak Ice Box at 2/1...Why not take a flyer? everyone has a opinion...i just cant understand how you could say he has no shot?
Where is his good race? He's a nice turf horse, but that doesn't mean he can win the Belmont.
only11
06-01-2010, 06:05 PM
His derby preps werent bad..
Dahoss9698
06-01-2010, 06:15 PM
Good luck with him on Saturday.
Dalton
06-01-2010, 06:26 PM
I'm pretty sure Sarava came from mid pack to run down pace setter Medaglia D'oro in the stretch.
Dalton
06-01-2010, 06:29 PM
I'm one of those people who doesn't believe a horse will suddenly jump up and do something they havent done in the biggest race of their lives.
... and yet, it continues to happen time and again in the Belmont, Summer Bird, Datara, Jazil, Commendable. :)
That's what makes the race so intriguing, especially this year, which has very few graded winners.
Dahoss9698
06-01-2010, 06:46 PM
... and yet, it continues to happen time and again in the Belmont, Summer Bird, Datara, Jazil, Commendable. :)
That's what makes the race so intriguing, especially this year, which has very few graded winners.
I don't know if Summer Bird really belongs in that group. For every D'Tara there is a logical horse. It just seems faulty to treat the Belmont like some crapshoot because D'Tara or Sarava won it a few years ago.
One has nothing to do with the other.
Dalton
06-01-2010, 11:10 PM
It's not a crapshoot, Summer Bird had some of the best late running already on paper, and so did Sarava. Da tara, yes that was craps, as proven by the horse never winning anything before or after that.
But the list does include horses jumping up and winning a G1 race that they haven't come very close to before, and who better to do that than a bunch of non-G1 winners this year.
precocity
06-02-2010, 01:28 PM
$1 million Belmont Stakes (gr. I, Belmont Park, June 5), 3YO 1 ½ Miles (Dirt)
Post Horse Jockey Trainer Odds
1. Dave In Dixie Calvin Borel John Sadler 20-1
2. Spangled Star Garrett Gomez Richard Dutrow, Jr. 30-1
3. Uptowncharlybrown Rajiv Maragh Kiaran McLaughlin 10-1
4. Make Music for Me Joel Rosario Alexis Barba 10-1
5. Fly Down John Velazquez Nick Zito 9-2
6. Ice Box Jose Lezcano Nick Zito 3-1
7. Drosselmeyer Mike Smith Bill Mott 12-1
8. Game On Dude Martin Garcia Bob Baffert 10-1
9. Stately Victor Alan Garcia Mike Maker 15-1
10. Stay Put Jamie Theriot Steve Margolis 20-1
11. First Dude Ramon Dominguez Dale Romans 7-2
12. Interactif Javier Castellano Todd Pletcher 12-1
precocity
06-02-2010, 01:29 PM
$1 million Belmont Stakes (gr. I, Belmont Park, June 5), 3YO 1 ½ Miles (Dirt)
Post Horse Jockey Trainer Odds
1. Dave In Dixie Calvin Borel John Sadler 20-1
2. Spangled Star Garrett Gomez Richard Dutrow, Jr. 30-1
3. Uptowncharlybrown Rajiv Maragh Kiaran McLaughlin 10-1
4. Make Music for Me Joel Rosario Alexis Barba 10-1
5. Fly Down John Velazquez Nick Zito 9-2
6. Ice Box Jose Lezcano Nick Zito 3-1
7. Drosselmeyer Mike Smith Bill Mott 12-1
8. Game On Dude Martin Garcia Bob Baffert 10-1
9. Stately Victor Alan Garcia Mike Maker 15-1
10. Stay Put Jamie Theriot Steve Margolis 20-1
11. First Dude Ramon Dominguez Dale Romans 7-2
12. Interactif Javier Castellano Todd Pletcher 12-1
looks interesting? :ThmbUp:
rastajenk
06-02-2010, 01:42 PM
Mildly, at best. :sleeping:
precocity
06-02-2010, 01:54 PM
Dave In Dixie Calvin Borel John Sadler 20-1
can borel do some magic here? :sleeping:
Robert Fischer
06-02-2010, 01:57 PM
ICE BOX :jump::jump::jump:
WinterTriangle
06-02-2010, 03:31 PM
Mildly, at best. :sleeping:
I dunno, I'm seeing some real shockers here for the trifecta so far, based on my analysis. Doesn't look zzzzz to me right now
precocity
06-02-2010, 03:46 PM
I dunno, I'm seeing some real shockers here for the trifecta so far, based on my analysis. Doesn't look zzzzz to me right now
me too statley vic, and make music for me right now...
rastajenk
06-02-2010, 03:49 PM
There may be some big payouts; some may invoke the cliche "a great betting race." But in a bigger picture, it's hard to see how this race means much. Will the win cap a successful run through the Triple Crown and its preps for whoever wins it? No, not really. Will it springboard the winner to a great summer and fall, with division honors to be reaped at year's end? Maybe...seems unlikely. I realize not every version of a big stakes can provide good storylines and meet the expectations of its history. Some are better than others, which means others are worse than some. This one's an other. :cool:
precocity
06-02-2010, 04:03 PM
There may be some big payouts; some may invoke the cliche "a great betting race." But in a bigger picture, it's hard to see how this race means much. Will the win cap a successful run through the Triple Crown and its preps for whoever wins it? No, not really. Will it springboard the winner to a great summer and fall, with division honors to be reaped at year's end? Maybe...seems unlikely. I realize not every version of a big stakes can provide good storylines and meet the expectations of its history. Some are better than others, which means others are worse than some. This one's an other. :cool:
great post ur right, i am strictly looking at this race for the money :ThmbUp:
that's if i can hit the tri or super. now if first dude comes out and runs like he did in the preak and wins the Belmont that's a decent story line....
joanied
06-02-2010, 05:50 PM
Well, I dunno...a couple may come out of this and really shake things up later in the summer.
These colts are really just coming into themselves, so who knows what might happen later on...horses like First Dude, Fly Down, Ice Box, Drosslemeyer, Stately Victor...if ya look at all of them and not try to compare them to horses of way back when, you can see there are some extremely well bred colts, with talent...anyone of 'em could jump up and win some of the biggies coming up.
I still haven't sorted out my picks, but I am kinda bummed that First Dude drew the 11 hole...yeah, I know, it's a long way 'round to get postition, but he probably will get carried out on the first turn...this seems to me as a pretty evenly matched field, but as of right now, I am still liking First Dude.
Robert Fischer
06-02-2010, 08:14 PM
$1MILLION DOLLAR PURSE
12 HORSES
12 FURLONGS@126lbs/3yos
we may not have one for the ages (although one of these could always surprise), but this is a horseplayer's race!
WinterTriangle
06-02-2010, 08:20 PM
But in a bigger picture, it's hard to see how this race means much.
I see it differently, but that is because I am a big fan of classic distance races.
To me, it means we have horses who can get a classic distance.
Did you read the article about Ice Box's breeder in DRF, and what his goals are, I found it very interesting.
Anyway, my favorite races (excluding endurance races like 100 miles) are all long, like the Melbourne Cup, the Arc, The Belmont, Prix Du Cadran, Ascot Gold Cup, St. Leger, and even the KY Derby.
I just love watching what can happen along the way. :jump: I wish they'd put the JCGC back to 2 miles.
I am kinda bummed that First Dude drew the 11 hole...
JMHO, Joanied, but post position matters a lot less in a race of this distance.
To me, I handicap this for 1) ability to get the distance 2) best fitness 3) decent cruising speed/late kick.
Any horse who doesn't meet the first 2, it doesn't matter what their post position is, because it will not help them .:) Distance ability can be seen both in researching the pedigree, esp. the female side (for me), and in track performance/late kick at longer distances. Then they have to be fit enough, on that day, to fulfill that destiny, if you will.
Some horses will lose their ability for late kick due to the distance.
Anyway, that's my take
joanied
06-02-2010, 08:40 PM
I see it differently, but that is because I am a big fan of classic distance races.
To me, it means we have horses who can get a classic distance.
Did you read the article about Ice Box's breeder in DRF, and what his goals are, I found it very interesting.
Anyway, my favorite races (excluding endurance races like 100 miles) are all long, like the Melbourne Cup, the Arc, The Belmont, Prix Du Cadran, Ascot Gold Cup, St. Leger, and even the KY Derby.
I just love watching what can happen along the way. :jump: I wish they'd put the JCGC back to 2 miles.
JMHO, Joanied, but post position matters a lot less in a race of this distance.
To me, I handicap this for 1) ability to get the distance 2) best fitness 3) decent cruising speed/late kick.
Any horse who doesn't meet the first 2, it doesn't matter what their post position is, because it will not help them .:) Distance ability can be seen both in researching the pedigree, esp. the female side (for me), and in track performance/late kick at longer distances. Then they have to be fit enough, on that day, to fulfill that destiny, if you will.
Some horses will lose their ability for late kick due to the distance.
Anyway, that's my take
Winter T...ya missed the next part of my post position woes for Firs Dude:
still haven't sorted out my picks, but I am kinda bummed that First Dude drew the 11 hole...yeah, I know, it's a long way 'round to get postition, but he probably will get carried out on the first turn
He will get drifted out in the first turn, I just hope not by too much, because even at the distance, with that loooooong backstretch ahead, a horse can loose several lengths in that first turn. The good thing about his post is that he won't get into trouble, the one thing I don't wanna see is him being checked.
You know I'm a pedigree gal too...and it seems that some owners, like Ice Box's owner, and Jackson are doing a great service to the breed by implementing stamina...actually, several of the belmont contenders have quite a lot of stamina in their bloodlines...I like that:ThmbUp: It's one reason, IMO, that this is a tough race to handicap...there is no stand out stamina pedigree, rather several that fit the bill...and, First Dude has the pedigree, is fit as can be, and has that cruising speed...
I rest my case:) :) :)
cj's dad
06-02-2010, 09:14 PM
These colts are really just coming into themselves, .
1999 Belmont Stakes - Lemon Drop Kid - born earliest of all - wins easily if I remember correctly and paid a big mutual price.
I'm going to look at this angle and at jocks who know the nuances of Belmont Park. C Borel ?? a toss IMO
Dahoss9698
06-02-2010, 09:58 PM
Considering there is little to no speed inside of him and plenty of time for him to clear....how is First Dude going to get carried out?
FEARTHECHOMP
06-02-2010, 10:07 PM
Considering there is little to no speed inside of him and plenty of time for him to clear....how is First Dude going to get carried out?
Not sure it matters...Its all about the bounce for 1st dude...Coming off a career best beyer and running further at big sandy....Tough task ahead....
Dahoss9698
06-02-2010, 10:18 PM
Not sure it matters...Its all about the bounce for 1st dude...Coming off a career best beyer and running further at big sandy....Tough task ahead....
If he doesn't win it will have nothing to do with bouncing. It'll be because Fly Down or Ice Box run him down.
FEARTHECHOMP
06-02-2010, 10:35 PM
If he doesn't win it will have nothing to do with bouncing. It'll be because Fly Down or Ice Box run him down.
Well that covers the bases..lol
Dont you think if he quits at the 1/4 pole and runs his typical 90 or so it would be a bounce?
Ine thing I agree with there...Zito will win the Belmont...
Dahoss9698
06-02-2010, 10:48 PM
Well that covers the bases..lol
Dont you think if he quits at the 1/4 pole and runs his typical 90 or so it would be a bounce?
Ine thing I agree with there...Zito will win the Belmont...
I don't believe in the bounce theory. Good horses are capable of pairing up efforts. But, isn't Fly Down a bounce candidate also?
Robert Fischer
06-02-2010, 10:59 PM
ZITO has it 'in the bag!
tbwinner
06-02-2010, 11:45 PM
Yep, I'm in agreement that either of Zito's will take the Belmont. I'm also liking Drosselmeyer as a long-shot (relatively) threat to Fly Down and Ice Box. I think First Dude gets shuffled back in the first turn, won't be able to replicate the Preakness performance.
Dahoss9698
06-02-2010, 11:56 PM
Yep, I'm in agreement that either of Zito's will take the Belmont. I'm also liking Drosselmeyer as a long-shot (relatively) threat to Fly Down and Ice Box. I think First Dude gets shuffled back in the first turn, won't be able to replicate the Preakness performance.
So who is going to be on the lead if it isn't First Dude?
FEARTHECHOMP
06-03-2010, 12:00 AM
I don't believe in the bounce theory. Good horses are capable of pairing up efforts. But, isn't Fly Down a bounce candidate also?
Yes...But if you read between the lines with FLYDOWN you see his trouble line...So if you toss that one your looking at 91 and 99 respectively...Plus he beat dude 3 times already..
FEARTHECHOMP
06-03-2010, 12:02 AM
So who is going to be on the lead if it isn't First Dude?
Game in added blinkers in the last.....He improved his speed bigtime...Look for him to be up close....Baffert knows he cant let Dude coast at a mile and a half..
Dahoss9698
06-03-2010, 12:14 AM
Yes...But if you read between the lines with FLYDOWN you see his trouble line...So if you toss that one your looking at 91 and 99 respectively...Plus he beat dude 3 times already..
And if you read between the lines with First Dude and toss the start on poly, his last two are 101 and 89. Not to mention he had trouble in the Florida Derby.
And Fly Down beat First Dude twice, not three times. By a 1/2 length and a head. I like Fly Down, but First Dude is for real.
Dahoss9698
06-03-2010, 12:16 AM
Game in added blinkers in the last.....He improved his speed bigtime...Look for him to be up close....Baffert knows he cant let Dude coast at a mile and a half..
I don't doubt Game on Dude will be up close. But did you actually see his race last time. I know they went a solid pace up front and he was a good 6-7 lengths back.
My question was in response to the post saying First Dude is going to be shuffeled back. How is that going to happen?
tbwinner
06-03-2010, 12:47 AM
I don't think he'll have enough speed to get up and in before the turn (yeah, it's a long way I know) with the 11 post. I think Spangled Star and Game On Dude, along with Interactif on the far outside (Pletcher doesn't have a chance here IMO, waste of a $100k supplemental) make a bid for the lead, beating out First Dude. Either of those two will lose it on the stretch run to Ice Box, Fly Down, and the possible Drosselmeyer (who will probably stalk 4-5 lengths off the lead).
Dahoss9698
06-03-2010, 12:54 AM
I don't think he'll have enough speed to get up and in before the turn (yeah, it's a long way I know) with the 11 post. I think Spangled Star and Game On Dude, along with Interactif on the far outside (Pletcher doesn't have a chance here IMO, waste of a $100k supplemental) make a bid for the lead, beating out First Dude. Either of those two will lose it on the stretch run to Ice Box, Fly Down, and the possible Drosselmeyer (who will probably stalk 4-5 lengths off the lead).
Have you seen the Preakness?
WinterTriangle
06-03-2010, 03:45 AM
First Dude is indeed a monster, and fit, but I'm thinking he will get caught.
salty
06-03-2010, 03:57 AM
Have you seen the Preakness?
I was about to say the same. Oh man how is he going to make the lead from the 11 hole, the same exact post he was at in the Preakness. This is a mystery for sure. :lol:
I think it will be the two dudes and interactif in front early, probably be first dude, interactif, game on dude into the first turn.
I don't know how much game on and interactif will take out of first dude, but I am going to bet on enough to keep him from first or second.
Dave in dixie, spanlged star, uptowncharlybrown, game on dude, stay put, interactif, stately victor, I think will make it in 6-12 places
Now i'm having trouble picking between, Dross - ice - fly - music - first...
:faint: cant sleep
salty
06-03-2010, 04:33 AM
alright i think i'm going to have to go with Ice Box.
after his horrible trip in the derby how could you write this guy off?
How did his momentum get stopped three times and he still made it up for second?
I have a feeling if Fly Down gets stuck in traffic he will be done for
so i'm going for :6: / :4: :7: :11: / :4: :5: :7: :11: / :4: :5: :7: :11: :12:
FEARTHECHOMP
06-03-2010, 07:23 AM
I don't doubt Game on Dude will be up close. But did you actually see his race last time. I know they went a solid pace up front and he was a good 6-7 lengths back.
My question was in response to the post saying First Dude is going to be shuffeled back. How is that going to happen?
Sorry was counting Game on dude in there as 1 of the 3...
Im not saying he wont be on the lead going around the 1st turn....But if you want to get technical....HE could stumble, Jock lose irons, Dwelt, Be cut off by #10 and #12, gate not open,change tactics....I think you get the point....
For the Record I see him on the lead till the final 8th where Ice box blows on by after not being nearly as far back as every one expects.....Fly down picks up 2nd while Dude fades to 3rd or 4th...
RaceBookJoe
06-03-2010, 09:23 AM
I will be using Make Music For Me..especially at 10-1 !!! rbj
Lon Chaney
06-03-2010, 10:24 AM
$1 Trifecta :5: :11: / :5: :11: :6: :7: / :5: :11: :6: :7: :2: :4: :8:
and of course my $2 Exacta Box :2: :4:
Total $34
precocity
06-03-2010, 12:39 PM
NOT READY YET BUT HER IS ONE PLAY I LIKE
:11: :9: :6: :4: :8: TRI BOX
tbwinner
06-03-2010, 01:19 PM
Have you seen the Preakness?
Yeah I realize he was able to do it from the 11 hole in the Preakness but I think he gets a battle from Interactif from the outside there for the lead at the start. Early speed from Game On Dude and Spangled Star will shuffle them both in to about 5-6 lengths off the lead. First Dude needs late speed, which he has not been able to do except for his 1st maiden that he came in 2nd.
tbwinner
06-03-2010, 01:20 PM
:5: :6: :7: / :5: :6: :7: :8: :11:
Dalton
06-03-2010, 01:49 PM
Just looking a pace, there isn't much speed. Looks like a tale of 2 dudes to me.
WinterTriangle
06-03-2010, 01:50 PM
My ticket might look a bit like a cross of Salty, Fear and Racebook's.
Nice 2-4 exacta box LonChaney...is that your "lucky combo" numbers? Mine are usually 9-4 LOL
MMfM trainer would seem to know a little about winning a classic race, don't you think?
Cardus
06-03-2010, 02:08 PM
ZITO has it 'in the bag!
I don't think that Zito's horses have a chance.
Look at Nick's Belmont Stakes history: he wins with a longshot in a year with a horse going for the Triple Crown. This scenario doesn't exist this year.
You can tell that Nick trains his horses extra hard and has that "eye of the tiger" look about him when he has a chance to thwart a horse's Triple Crown chances.
So, with my eye on history, I'd say that Zito doesn't have it in the bag!
SoCalCircuit
06-03-2010, 02:27 PM
Zito lives for the Belmont Stakes. He cares about it more than the Derby, thats why he always has horses pointed to it, and this year he actually has the best two horses on paper. Ice Box is the class of the field and won't be as far back as he was in KY, and Fly D has shown an obvious liking to the track and has beaten the Dude multiple times. I do think Zito has this one...
precocity
06-03-2010, 03:29 PM
Zito lives for the Belmont Stakes. He cares about it more than the Derby, thats why he always has horses pointed to it, and this year he actually has the best two horses on paper. Ice Box is the class of the field and won't be as far back as he was in KY, and Fly D has shown an obvious liking to the track and has beaten the Dude multiple times. I do think Zito has this one...
I still think zito is in the italian mob :lol: :lol:
SoCalCircuit
06-03-2010, 03:43 PM
LOL it wouldnt surprise me at all :D
joanied
06-03-2010, 07:33 PM
1999 Belmont Stakes - Lemon Drop Kid - born earliest of all - wins easily if I remember correctly and paid a big mutual price.
I'm going to look at this angle and at jocks who know the nuances of Belmont Park. C Borel ?? a toss IMO
It's the angle you have to look at...just like what I said about First Dude, and some of the others in here...and you are right about lemon Drop Kid (loved that colt)...Calvin has a few races over the Big Sandy now...but, IMO, maybe not enough...be interesting to see how he rides this one.
joanied
06-03-2010, 08:11 PM
Considering there is little to no speed inside of him and plenty of time for him to clear....how is First Dude going to get carried out?
He broke well in the Preakness, but that was a straight shot for getting the lead, this time he'll have that turn come up pretty fast ...on Sat., he'll have to break like a QH to gain postion, I don't care what's inside of him...he'd have to be really shook up the first 100 yards to get in a nice position before that first turn, and that might be a mistake...you watch, Dahoss...he'll get carried out.
I still find myself fooling around with my picks...regardless of the fact I like FD...man, this is a toughie!!
Dahoss9698
06-03-2010, 09:23 PM
He broke well in the Preakness, but that was a straight shot for getting the lead, this time he'll have that turn come up pretty fast ...on Sat., he'll have to break like a QH to gain postion, I don't care what's inside of him...he'd have to be really shook up the first 100 yards to get in a nice position before that first turn, and that might be a mistake...you watch, Dahoss...he'll get carried out.
I still find myself fooling around with my picks...regardless of the fact I like FD...man, this is a toughie!!
I just don't think the turn comes up that quickly where it will effect him. This is assuming he breaks with the field. If he breaks, the plan is to make the front. Romans was talking about how big he is and how it takes him awhile to get going. If you watch a replay of the Florida Derby you can really see this as they are rounding the far turn.
Either way, I think the race goes through him.
Cardus
06-03-2010, 09:54 PM
He broke well in the Preakness, but that was a straight shot for getting the lead, this time he'll have that turn come up pretty fast ...on Sat., he'll have to break like a QH to gain postion, I don't care what's inside of him...he'd have to be really shook up the first 100 yards to get in a nice position before that first turn, and that might be a mistake...you watch, Dahoss...he'll get carried out.
I still find myself fooling around with my picks...regardless of the fact I like FD...man, this is a toughie!!
Do you find this race to be more difficult than the Preakness?
miesque
06-03-2010, 10:48 PM
Apologize if this has already been posted. Alicia Keys??????
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2010/06/03/AR2010060304395.html
A different tune will kick off the Belmont Stakes
The Associated Press
Thursday, June 3, 2010; 7:10 PM
NEW YORK -- Start spreading the news: Sinatra's out at the Belmont Stakes.
The New York Racing Association says Frank Sinatra's classic version of "New York, New York" is being replaced by "Empire State of Mind" as the music heard when the horses step onto the track for the $1 million Belmont on Saturday
The change is being made because Jay-Z's "Empire State of Mind" has become a "quintessential 21st century theme song for New York City," says NYRA marketing director Neema Ghazi.
Alicia Keys' version of "Empire State of Mind" is to be performed by teenage recording artist Jasmine Villegas.
tbwinner
06-03-2010, 11:05 PM
That's the way our country is going...how ridiculous.
If it attracts a younger crowd and more handle, I'm all for it though :D
tbwinner
06-03-2010, 11:10 PM
Just looking at the card...looks as if there ARE 10 cent supers on the Belmont? I know the Derby and Preakness did not allow such...but is Belmont doing so?
KingChas
06-03-2010, 11:57 PM
Stamina Index sire/ dam
Dave in Dixie........................ 3 / 3
Spangled Star....................... 3 /1
Uptowncharlybrown............... 4 /3
Make Music for Me................. 3 /4
Fly Down.............................. 1 / 3
Ice Box................................ 2 / 1
Drosselmeyer....................... 3/ 3
Game On Dude..................... 2/ 3
Stately Victor....................... 2 /1
Stay Put .............................. 3 / 3
First Dude............................ 3 /1
Interactif.............................. 3 / 3
Ability to win distance by sire's progeny;
1=1&1/4+
2= 1&1/8
3= 1&1/16
4= 1mile
philofbelloni
06-03-2010, 11:57 PM
The only horse that has bettered a 10+ point Brisnet speed improvement since 1/1/10 was Ice Box (Drosselmeyer did it once but the following three performances averaged -10 under the peak two). In fact, almost all the other horses have regressed after a 10+ point gain (outside of 1st 2 starts). Ice Box has proven he can pull it off twice and now has 5 weeks between races. The talk after the derby focused around SuperSaver and Paddy O Prado who both flattened out. Yeah, 3 weeks difference makes a bigger difference than 2 weeks but in a 12F race, I'll take 5 weeks rest over 3 anytime. Ice Box,
KingChas
06-04-2010, 12:32 AM
looked at the Probables does anybody think Stately Victor can win this race?
:ThmbUp:
Sure looks like Mr. Zito has a pair of aces in the hole.
But Stately Vic looks like the wild card - at a price. ;)
MNslappy
06-04-2010, 12:55 AM
Make Music for Me................. 3 /4
this one is the most confusing to me....his pedigree says "no way" but look at the way he runs, especially the closing move he made at 1 1/4.
KingChas
06-04-2010, 01:03 AM
Make Music for Me................. 3 /4
this one is the most confusing to me....his pedigree says "no way" but look at the way he runs, especially the closing move he made at 1 1/4.
MN nothing etched in stone on the stamina index.
Horse's have been known to outrun/underrun their recent pedigree.
Don't let it sway your bet.
Good Luck.
Cardus
06-04-2010, 01:49 AM
Make Music for Me................. 3 /4
this one is the most confusing to me....his pedigree says "no way" but look at the way he runs, especially the closing move he made at 1 1/4.
Make Music for Me in the Belmont Stakes = Paddy O' Prado in the Preakness Stakes.
Show Me the Wire
06-04-2010, 01:51 AM
A very lack luster field which does not generate much ethusiasm.
The morning line favorite's claim to fame is breaking his maiden in a slow time beating Pleassant Prince twice and the big finish in the KD. Of course, the big finish in the derby came after not running a step for about the first 4 1/2 furlongs. Not likely to happen again in a race with a bunch of like-minded running styles.
The unknown quantity is the accomplished grass horse, Interactif? What will he do? Up on the pace or just sitting off the pace waiting to pounce. A lot to like, Pletcher off the short freshening lay-off and a lot to question, like the slow maiden win on the dirt and the slow losing effort second time out on the dirt.
If Interactif takes to the Belmont surface and is sitting close to the pace, he seals the deal.
As I said, for us fans (and I use the term fan loosely) a bunch of slow uninspiring contestants in a meaningless last leg of the TC.
PhantomOnTour
06-04-2010, 02:48 AM
Where can one get dosage profiles for the Belmont field?
Where can one get dosage profiles for the Belmont field?
1. Dave in Dixie 4-0-7-0-1 (12) DI = 1.67
2. Spangled Star 5-3-14-1-1 (24) DI = 1.67
3. Uptowncharlybrown 5-2-7-0-0 (14) DI = 3.00
4. Make Music for Me 12-5-9-2-0 (28) DI = 3.31
5. Fly Down 11-7-12-0-0 (30) DI = 4.00
6. Ice Box 7-6-11-0-0 (24) DI = 3.36
7. Drosselmeyer 7-2-10-2-1 (22) DI = 1.75
8. Game On Dude 8-0-6-0-0 (14) DI = 3.67
9. Stately Victor 3-2-11-0-0 (16) DI = 1.91
10. Stay Put 9-6-9-2-2 (28) DI = 2.29
11. First Dude 8-5-13-0-0 (26) DI = 3.00
12. Interactif 12-13-15-2-2 (44) DI = 2.83
PhantomOnTour
06-04-2010, 02:59 AM
Thank you kindly :ThmbUp:
WinterTriangle
06-04-2010, 07:32 AM
50% chance of off-track, if that happens, I'll have to change my picks as in the KY Derby, it gave horses like Paddy O Prado an advantage. Interactif could move up on mud, for instance.
My analysis of the Belmont using mostly pedigree for a dry track is:
Fly Down, Ice Box, Spangled Star
next order of popularity: First Dude, Drosselmeyer, Stay Put, and Make Music for Me.
My exotic ticket will have these horses.
Horses who received the lowest scores for me were stately victor, uptowncharlybrown, game on dude, and dave in dixie.
(Spangled Star is my longshot, love his breeding, which shares some stuff with Zenyatta, but he is very light in foundation, has only run 1-1/16, and there are serious class concerns, but that's why he's 30-1 :) ) Bombs away!
I don't ever place wagers without seeing the post parade, so that may very well change my "paper picks", but that's how it looks to me now.
joanied
06-04-2010, 09:33 AM
I just don't think the turn comes up that quickly where it will effect him. This is assuming he breaks with the field. If he breaks, the plan is to make the front. Romans was talking about how big he is and how it takes him awhile to get going. If you watch a replay of the Florida Derby you can really see this as they are rounding the far turn.
Either way, I think the race goes through him.
IMO, it comes up fast enough...seen too many get drifted out there, and expect Firs Dude may be one of them. You don't need Roman's telling us how big he is, and that getting checked would be the kiss of death...if he gets the lead, he'll need to slow it down enough to have a finish, even with no real speed, I suspect there will be 1 or 2 pressing him.
I'll try to watch the FL Derby sometime today...I really can't remember how it went.
I do think Zito is loaded for bear...anyway ya look at this field, it's very difficult to predeict how it may play out...as mentioned before, it'
s pretty much anyone's race...
still messing around with my picks, and then the final draw comes when I see the post parade...
good luck to you with your wagers!
Lon Chaney
06-04-2010, 10:10 AM
My ticket might look a bit like a cross of Salty, Fear and Racebook's.
Nice 2-4 exacta box LonChaney...is that your "lucky combo" numbers? Mine are usually 9-4 LOL
MMfM trainer would seem to know a little about winning a classic race, don't you think?
Always play the :2: :4: Exacta Box
Last week at Belmont, I played it for the entire card. The :4: :2: came in 3 times; $20, $44, $77.
WinterTriangle
06-04-2010, 10:16 AM
First Dude record before belmont:
7-1-4-1
First Dude record after the belmont:
7-1-5-1
He always runs 2nd.
He sure looks good though.
Greyfox
06-04-2010, 11:03 AM
I don't ever place wagers without seeing the post parade, .
and then the final draw comes when I see the post parade...
Agreed.:ThmbUp:
Numbers and breeding are one thing. Too many people underestimate the value of the Post Parade.
precocity
06-04-2010, 12:55 PM
Agreed.:ThmbUp:
Numbers and breeding are one thing. Too many people underestimate the value of the Post Parade.
last year at the Belmont saw the post parade and made a last minute exta bet, saw dunkirk and said got to bet that grey? summer bird, dunkirk, mine that bird.....15$ exta box on those three...
MNslappy
06-04-2010, 02:14 PM
Spangled Star is going to be my bomb as well. :ThmbUp:
The breeding, the trainer, the jockey, the training schedule, the improving figs, there's a lot to like.
Here's my exacta
Fly Down
Drosselmeyer
Spangled Star
First Dude
Spangled Star
Fly Down
Ice Box
Drosselmeyer
Stay Put
kenwoodall2
06-04-2010, 02:26 PM
I will bet 2- Ice Box and Fly Down to win and box exacta.
MrBeno
06-04-2010, 06:11 PM
Anyone know who are the mudders? I know they just say scatter T-storms, but some of these storms recently dump down and form with little warning.
WinterTriangle
06-04-2010, 06:56 PM
http://i.bloodhorse.com/downloads/special-reports/pdfs/broodmare-of-the-year-2009-1080927125.pdf
http://www.tbheritage.com/HistoricDams/AmBroodmareofYear.html
I find this very helpful when doing my pedigree research.
Looking at the bottom side of the pedigree is an excellent method for spotting zenyattas, red giants, music notes, jazil's, sweet catomines, macho unos, rags to riches, bernadinis, etc. before they happen.:)
In general, this should help w/handicapping other races, too, so it won't be wasted. Never hurts to memorize certain sires and broodmare sires.
joanied
06-04-2010, 07:00 PM
I just don't think the turn comes up that quickly where it will effect him. This is assuming he breaks with the field. If he breaks, the plan is to make the front. Romans was talking about how big he is and how it takes him awhile to get going. If you watch a replay of the Florida Derby you can really see this as they are rounding the far turn.
Either way, I think the race goes through him.
Dahoss...just a tiny bit more on that first turn stuff....here's a quote from a BH article I read a while ago, it talks about how the difficulty of the Belmont oval, particually the turns and how so many jocks have screwed up their ride. Anyway...
"And finally, in the Belmont Stakes, try at all costs to avoid going into the first turn wide. If you lose too much ground getting around that turn it likely will catch up to you later on."
And this is what bothers me about First Dude. I don't think you can compare it to the Preakness, regardless of the fact he has the same post (maybe a good omen;) )...if for any number of reasons, he doesn't break well, he's gonna get carried wide...so, I guess I just hope he breaks like a damned QH outta there!
Good luck to you...(I'll post my picks sooner or later, but, alas, they don't mean much anyway)
Cratos
06-04-2010, 11:06 PM
If there ever was a race that confuses the handicapper it has to be the Belmont Stakes.
The confusion comes in two forms for the handicapper when analyzing the race. The first is the distance of which none of the horses in the race have ever run one a few have run 1 ¼ miles and some not even that far, but now they are being asked by their connections to run 1 ½ miles; an arduous task to say the least.
If distance is baffling enough for the handicapper, pace is a can of spaghetti because in any horserace pace is the key, but in the Belmont it is the ultimate key because the horse should have the speed to stay on the pace and not be out run along with having the stamina to get the distance.
In this year’s Belmont, Ice Box off of his last two races look like a “lock” and the bed of white coronations should just be a formality for its owners. But before we go that far lets look at those two races. At Gulfstream he caught a speed favoring surface which had the leader at the three-quarters of that race running in 1:10 and change. In the Ky Derby he caught a sloppy track, but it was “sealed” making for some early fast fractions which allowed fatigue to sat in late and Ice Box came running to get up for second.
However in the Belmont I don’t see him getting that sort of speed up front and given that he is by Pulpit I don’t like him at this distance even though he is out of a Tabasco Cat mare.
First Dude showed in the Peakness that he has some speed, but in my opinion he is a miler who might stretch to a 1 1/8 mile distance under the right circumstances. Also Fly Down should be on the early pace and his effort will hinder any opportunity that First Dude might have.
Therefore who gets the call? That task falls to either Interactif or Make Music for Me. Interactif gets Castellano up, one of the best riders for going a distance and rating a horse that there is riding today. Make Music for Me is begging for distance and with Rosario riding him and with Belmont’s big sweeping curves he should improve.
But both Interactif and Make Music for Me have the problem of being inexperience on dirt.
Good Luck
PaceAdvantage
06-04-2010, 11:11 PM
I tossed Ice Box completely . . . but unfortunately, I still didn't land on a big price, which is what I want in a race like this . . . my thoughts on the home page:
http://www.paceadvantage.com
Dahoss9698
06-04-2010, 11:16 PM
Dahoss...just a tiny bit more on that first turn stuff....here's a quote from a BH article I read a while ago, it talks about how the difficulty of the Belmont oval, particually the turns and how so many jocks have screwed up their ride. Anyway...
"And finally, in the Belmont Stakes, try at all costs to avoid going into the first turn wide. If you lose too much ground getting around that turn it likely will catch up to you later on."
And this is what bothers me about First Dude. I don't think you can compare it to the Preakness, regardless of the fact he has the same post (maybe a good omen;) )...if for any number of reasons, he doesn't break well, he's gonna get carried wide...so, I guess I just hope he breaks like a damned QH outta there!
Good luck to you...(I'll post my picks sooner or later, but, alas, they don't mean much anyway)
Joanied, do you think I don't realize where the turn is in relation to the gate? If he doesn't break, he has the best jock in the country on him. He'll tuck in. If he gets beat it won't be getting carried out on the first turn that beats him.
It's a total non issue IMO.
Cardus
06-04-2010, 11:40 PM
http://i.bloodhorse.com/downloads/special-reports/pdfs/broodmare-of-the-year-2009-1080927125.pdf
http://www.tbheritage.com/HistoricDams/AmBroodmareofYear.html
I find this very helpful when doing my pedigree research.
Looking at the bottom side of the pedigree is an excellent method for spotting zenyattas, red giants, music notes, jazil's, sweet catomines, macho unos, rags to riches, bernadinis, etc. before they happen.:)
In general, this should help w/handicapping other races, too, so it won't be wasted. Never hurts to memorize certain sires and broodmare sires.
This is revolutionary.
Speed Demon
06-04-2010, 11:57 PM
Has Fly Down ever run in a Grade 1 race, much less won one. Ice Box looks like the only entrant with consistent speed (according to Mr. Beyer).
Cardus
06-05-2010, 12:09 AM
Has Fly Down ever run in a Grade 1 race, much less won one. Ice Box looks like the only entrant with consistent speed (according to Mr. Beyer).
Does that matter as much as it used to matter? Five of these horses have never run in a Grade I race, and another's Grade I race (Interactif) was on a synthetic course.
He is as fast as anyone in the field off of his last race. What was run as the Peter Pan Stakes has been a useful prep for the Belmont Stakes.
I'm not saying that he will win, but I will not discount him because of the grading system.
NYPlayer
06-05-2010, 12:16 AM
This year's triple crown seems more like it should have been called the triple crap shoot. A wide open Belmont and I like the new comers.
Stay Put - good numbers on sheets, but has been wide in many races. Good value at 20/1 and a must use in the triple,
Drosselmeyer- Should have run better last time, but deserves another chance considering he had a some trouble in last.
Fly Down - A nice improving horse. Trainer Zito knows all about the Belmont.
Interactif - A solid pattern on the sheets but can he handle dirt? Must use.
I will be playing a triple most likely keying Stay Put and Drosselmyer.
Hopefully the bombs hit the target.
WinterTriangle
06-05-2010, 02:07 AM
This is revolutionary.
Adding a link to help other players look at bms is revolutionary? Saving them time to find it
What exactly did your comment ADD to the discussion?
It just makes you look bad. :) that you're going looking to find something to bash.
PS. to those who have pm'ed me asking for pedigree reading/info, just ignore old Cardus, as he obviously not only doesn't want to help you.... but doesn't want anyone else to, either. ;)
redshift1
06-05-2010, 02:23 AM
Well I'm in for fun again :
Ice Box
First Dude
Stately Victor
Passing on the betting again to many unknown variables. I'm sure some people have this face figured out but I'm not one.
letswastemoney
06-05-2010, 04:22 AM
Most Likely: Fly Down
Next Best: Ice Box (because this field is so horrible that I cannot leave him out)
Best Value: Stately Victor (KD horses do well when skipping Preakness)
Next Best Value: Drosselmeyer (dosen't have a good turn of foot...doesn't need one for the Belmont)
Next Best Value: Make Music For Me (Same reasoning as for Stately Victor)
So if I played a trifecta or superfecta of some sort, I'd use these 5 with Fly Down singled on top
uptowncharleybrown was kept out of the derby & preekness
aimed for this race ?
worth a play :3:
JustRalph
06-05-2010, 05:54 AM
:5:
:6:
:8:
:11:
:3:
:2: What is Gomez going to do with this one?
Above is my best guess.......... :lol:
lamboguy
06-05-2010, 06:45 AM
i am not a big fan in changing anything within the context of the tripple crown, but today this one is huge. KIRAN MCGLAUGHLIN decided that UPTOWN CHARLIE BROWN doesn't need the shades and he has become more managable for the rider to ride. i thought that UTCB was the very best 3 yo this year ability wise before the derby preps. i was flat out wrong, he has been a disapointment up until now. this guy is training like a house of fire and is very focused. this guy is throwing a monkey wrench at the competion today because they have no idea how to figure out what he is going to do today on the pace. i think he runs a big race and shows us that he is truly a great horse today running in the greatest horse race every year THE BELMONT STAKES.
depalma113
06-05-2010, 07:10 AM
As I said, for us fans (and I use the term fan loosely) a bunch of slow uninspiring contestants in a meaningless last leg of the TC
Every race of this Triple Crown season was filled with a bunch of slow uninspiring contestants.
Bobzilla
06-05-2010, 07:48 AM
I'll probably be going with the inproving FLY DOWN in today's big race. That said, I really do wish that for once in STAY PUT'S career he could manage to draw any post from the middle towards the rail. His Louisianna stakes races were started all from the outside where he was forced to drop too far back then try to close into some awfully dawdling fractions, usually wide around the turns and left with waaay too much to do. Students of pace might want to take a closer look at his N1X victory on 1/3; that was actually a pretty good efffort and perhaps a hint at the scope of his potential ceiling as he matures. No animal was going to run anything all that high in that race considering how far into the race they went before any real running began. If SP had drawn more to the inside for the Belmont he might have been able to gain some early position into midpack. From the outside he's probably going to have to drop back too far for this event. At 20/1 I'm tempted as I felt he was sitting on a forward move. At the very least I'll be playing him underneath in all of the exotics. I can't fault anyone who thinks the winner will be from the top 3, in fact I'll probably be concentrating on FLY DOWN. However, the bar isn't really all that high and if any one of these developing 3yos is ready to step up in their respective cycles then a win by someone outside of the big 3 wouldn't be that much of a surprise to me. I feel SP could be ready to step up but, unfortunately, a possible wide trip behind moderate to slow fractions might hide any possible improvement in his form.
only11
06-05-2010, 08:33 AM
taking a second look...im still using Interactif,along with Statley Victor,Game Dude,Drosselmeyer.....
Ice Box let him beat me..First Dude doubt he repeats same race as Preakness,Fly Down is the now horse...
Question out of these entrants who will the major threat in the 3 year old division this year?
precocity
06-05-2010, 09:00 AM
hell yeah its Belmont day!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! going to BBQ some chicken and meat fajitas :ThmbUp: get a 18 pack of bud light and start shooting from the hip around noon!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! :jump: think first dude tries from gate to wire and stately victor gets him with a furlong to go with ice box and game on dude behind...just saying???????
:9:
:6: :11:
:11: :8:
going to be betting big on the Belmont's card today will be posting my picks later after i get a couple of cold ones in me!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! :lol:
depalma113
06-05-2010, 09:00 AM
1) First Dude
2) Interactif
3) Ice Box
4) Make Music For Me
Trotman
06-05-2010, 09:22 AM
For what it's worth I'll be all over Stately Victor :9: closing hard to nip Make Music For Me :4: with Ice Box :6: again a little short for the show spot. Ice Box could be a little closer to the pace because of First Dude which I think will be to his disadvantage. Good Luck To All :ThmbUp:
LemonSoupKid
06-05-2010, 10:10 AM
:6: Ice Box
:5: Fly Down
:8: Game On Dude
:7: Drosselmeyer
WPS on :6:
Box these in a trifecta.
Play the :6: :5: and :5: :6: exacta, with the :6: :5: play weighted
Play the large :5: show bet
Best wishes
tbwinner
06-05-2010, 10:11 AM
:6: Ice Box
:5: Fly Down
:8: Game On Dude
:7: Drosselmeyer
WPS on :6:
Box these in a trifecta.
Play the :6: :5: and :5: :6: exacta, with the :6: :5: play weighted
Play the large :5: show bet
Best wishes
These are basically my plays exactly...best of luck to us LemonSoupKid! I really think Drosselmeyer has a chance to go on top if we get a little slop today.
Dave in Dixie. Ship coast to coast just to "take a shot"? My thinking is this one has been Sadler's special project the last couple of months and will be heard from. Using the :1: with the two Zitos :5: :6:.
magwell
06-05-2010, 12:33 PM
Key 11 /4 5 6 in ex and tri..... then bx 4 5 6 11 in ex and tri and hit it twice if 11 wins :cool:
Greyfox
06-05-2010, 12:38 PM
For what it's worth I'll be all over Stately Victor :9: closing hard to nip Make Music For Me :4: with Ice Box :6: again a little short for the show spot. Ice Box could be a little closer to the pace because of First Dude which I think will be to his disadvantage. Good Luck To All :ThmbUp:
:4: :6: :9:
You and me both. All 3 had terrible trips in the Derby and even then Ice Box, after being steadied twice, almost won. The other two should show much more today.
joanied
06-05-2010, 01:04 PM
In case anyone is playing Drosselmeyer...he's been wearing an egg bar shoe in training. He'll get re shod and have on regular shoes for the race, but if you play him, you need to know he obviously has a sore frog.
I am watching the HRTV stuff in between farm chores and running after our newest dog...a 6 wks old Black lab...so, trying to watch TV and post is getting hard :mad: ...but I just heard that new song they'll have playing at race time...Empire something or other...geeze, what are they thinking...maybe it's a young person's tune... but,I think it sucks...it's a 'rap' song...and, IMO, a pretty bad one at that.
Would have been better off to get a rock n' roller to remake New York, New York.
UGH:faint:
sally
06-05-2010, 01:07 PM
:10: Stay Put w-p-s
:10:-:7: Drosselmeyer exacta box
:cool:
joanied
06-05-2010, 01:12 PM
:10: Stay Put w-p-s
:10:-:7: Drosselmeyer exacta box
:cool:
Sally...did ya see my post on Drosselmeyer...he has a sore frog...been wearing egg bar shoe in training...might not mean a thing, but there ya go!
I still haven't posted my picks...it's only about 11 am here...but, I am running outta time...
good luck, girl:ThmbUp:
EQUIPACE
06-05-2010, 03:17 PM
Normally I like to have a couple of stand out keys to save some
investment coin... But since this is a pretty tough race to handicap
I'm going to go out on a limb and box 6 horses in the trifecta...
2-5-6-8-10-11
$1 trifecta = $120.00
Good Luck To All!
John
~¿o
sally
06-05-2010, 03:43 PM
Yes, thanks... oh well-- good thing I only bet 2 bucks at a time!
Um... what's a "frog" anyway? :confused:
Lon Chaney
06-05-2010, 04:12 PM
I think your post made me dream last night of a :9: :4: :2: finish, some of course I played the Exacta and Trifecta Boxes.
MNslappy
06-05-2010, 04:18 PM
Thanks for the info Joanied. I saw them talking about the shoe change on espn after you posted. I'm definitely changing my exacta around on hearing this news.
Interesting that Haskin, just yesterday wrote this: "Also, it must be stated that Drosselmeyer (http://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-racing/thoroughbred/drosselmeyer/2007?source=BHonline) has had the best work turned in by a Belmont starter."
Maybe it's a big deal, maybe it's not. I don't think I can play him on top now though. So if he wins I'll be kicking myself for a while.
WinterTriangle
06-05-2010, 04:54 PM
I think your post made me dream last night of a :9: :4: :2: finish, some of course I played the Exacta and Trifecta Boxes.
LOL! good luck!
I dreamed Ice Box would win the FL Derby, so go with your dream. I kinda like the combo of your lucky numbers and mine, but I would add the 6.
I'm gonna play 9-4-6-2 boxes
I also have a box that looks like 6-2-10-4
The Belmont looks like a wide open race, so why not? I usually don't box but I would have been a lot better off if I had done so in the derby and preak so I'll go for the gusto today.
Gotta wait for the post parade though
098poi
06-05-2010, 04:58 PM
My Youbet account is $.55 (that's cents) but I'll still post a pick for fun.
:3: :11: on top with :1: :3: :7: :9: :10: :11: :12: for the ex.
Enjoy everyone.
theveep
06-05-2010, 05:08 PM
$20 straight exacta :6::11:
Good luck to all.
Lou
Dahoss9698
06-05-2010, 05:12 PM
I think First Dude at 7-1 right now is a giant overlay. Absolutely love him at those odds. Fly Down and Ice Box underneath in exactas and FD, IB and Stay Put for 3rd in triples.
Belmont picks -
$5 exacta box :5::6::8::11:
$10W $30P :8:
precocity
06-05-2010, 06:08 PM
ok yalllllllllll my bet
2 tri box--- :6: :8: :9: :11: :5: :3:
same for the super but 1$ box
60 wps on staley victor!!!!!!!!!!!
GaryG
06-05-2010, 06:19 PM
Win bet on :11:
Exacta boxes: :5: :11: and :6: :11:
MrBeno
06-05-2010, 06:22 PM
GLA
$1 Tri 11 with 10/12 with 3/6/9
$1 Tri 5 with 10/11 with 3/8
$1 EX 11 with 9/10
$1 Tri 5/11 with 4/11 with 6/9
$1 Tri 6 with 3/11 with 3/8/11
$1 Tri 12 with 5/10 with 6/11
$1 Tri 11 with 1/3 with 1/3/5
$1 Tri 6 with 1/7 with 1/11
$1 Tri 5/11 with 5/11 with 6/10/8
$1 Tri 3 with 7/11 with 1/7
$1 Ex 9/11 box
lamboguy
06-05-2010, 06:22 PM
some one is betting on dave in dixie down to 13-1. i got him as the worst horse in the race. maybe someone knows something! sadler has been winning with impossible stuff all year.
andicap
06-05-2010, 06:35 PM
going to post I've keyed the 7 and 10 today in win bets and exactas
philofbelloni
06-05-2010, 06:35 PM
some one is betting on dave in dixie down to 13-1. i got him as the worst horse in the race. maybe someone knows something! sadler has been winning with impossible stuff all year.
Agree that those odds are very strange.
I'm sticking w/ :6: :4: over :6: :4: :3: :7:
Did anyone catch the guy in the tux t-shirt smoking a bone during "Empire State of Mind"? Classic NYC. Classic.
Reminds me of the time myself and a few friends were caught sharing a pint of Jameson before a sox/yanks game. Instead of denying us admission, the security guard told us to stand in the corner away from other patrons & finish the pint.
Wow. I gave the 7 no shot at all. Still don't like it. :bang:
andicap
06-05-2010, 06:41 PM
Finally, I win a Belmont! Now I'm just 1 for 22.
philofbelloni
06-05-2010, 06:44 PM
going to post I've keyed the 7 and 10 today in win bets and exactas
Great key, ac!!!
DRIVEWAY
06-05-2010, 06:49 PM
Pace Advantage had the superfecta pegged. Congrats or should I say SUPER.
I tossed Ice Box completely . . . but unfortunately, I still didn't land on a big price, which is what I want in a race like this . . . my thoughts on the home page:
http://www.paceadvantage.com
superfecta box, pretty, pretty nice :ThmbUp: :ThmbUp: :ThmbUp: :ThmbUp: :ThmbUp: :ThmbUp:
Marshall Bennett
06-05-2010, 06:55 PM
Why can't Jerry Bailey pronounce any of the jockey's names right ?
precocity
06-05-2010, 06:56 PM
will never play the Belmont again :bang: :bang:
andicap
06-05-2010, 06:58 PM
Wow. I gave the 7 no shot at all. Still don't like it. :bang:
Tom, believe it or not there is an HTR WIN profile for the Belmont that seems to fit well and Drosselmyer was pretty close to it. You never get a perfect profile fit but once you do a process of elimination you get down to a few who are close enough. This is at least the fifth straight year it has worked -- only trouble is I didn't catch on until last year at about 1 MTP and it was too late to bet Summer Bird.
DM fit nicely on %E, his PAC and PER were in the perfect proportion and he wasn't in the top 3 in AP. That's the counter-intuitive angle -- you want an AP horse in the 4-6 spot or so. No higher. And no EP in the top 3 either. (this is after throwing out the obvious non-contenders) I'll use PL-5 as a base and tweak a bit. Ideally, your IMP edif should be in the -10 to -24 range.
%E should not be too low. Definitely above 50% and preferably at least 50.20%. A lot of people, since its 12f, automatically look for the best stone-cold closer. Not so, at least for win.
So in short the Belmont winner is well-balanced horse, Not too early, not too late. Pedigree should be at least 450. A poor workout is not an eliminator but you prefer to see something decent, at least in the upper 70s.
098poi
06-05-2010, 07:03 PM
:5: :6: :7: / :5: :6: :7: :8: :11:
Looks like you hit the board too!
Congrats to Andi and PA
Where were you yesterday, Andy? :mad:
;):lol::lol:
Looks like you hit the board too!
Congrats to Andi and PA
PA had the super, right? :jump:
andicap
06-05-2010, 07:10 PM
Where were you yesterday, Andy? :mad:
;):lol::lol:
there's always next year, Tom
WinterTriangle
06-05-2010, 07:15 PM
also liking Drosselmeyer as a long-shot (relatively) threat to Fly Down and Ice Box. I think First Dude gets shuffled back in the first turn, won't be able to replicate the Preakness performance.
Nice! Hope you played it.
Yes...But if you read between the lines with FLYDOWN you see his trouble line...So if you toss that one your looking at 91 and 99 respectively...Plus he beat dude 3 times already..
...and beat him again. :)
I think Spangled Star and Game On Dude, along with Interactif on the far outside make a bid for the lead, beating out First Dude. Either of those two will lose it on the stretch run to Ice Box, Fly Down, and the possible Drosselmeyer (who will probably stalk 4-5 lengths off the lead).
That's exactly how the race ran, TB. game on dude and interactif running along with first dude. And you were dead on about drosselmeyer and fly down passing them all in the stretch.
VERY NICE laying out of this race in your head. Nice go'in It's hard to predict a race like this that good in advance for most people.
nice goin to bisket and andicap, too.
AND BIG KUDOS to Pace on the superfecta! WOWSA. In no way is that an easy thing to do in a race like this.! you are tops!!:jump:
Dahoss9698
06-05-2010, 07:20 PM
That's exactly how the race ran, TB. game on dude and interactif running along with first dude. And you were dead on about drosselmeyer and fly down passing them all in the stretch.
VERY NICE laying out of this race in your head. Nice go'in It's hard to predict a race like this that good in advance for most people.
Did you actually watch the race or read the post you quoted? Tbwinner thought those horses would beat out First Dude for the lead. Thought First Dude would be shuffeled back.
It's not how the race was run at all. Then again, facts are usually secondary.
WinterTriangle
06-05-2010, 07:30 PM
Then again, facts are usually secondary.
Then again, your inability to give anyone credit for anything is usually secondary.
I sure didn't see you give a better version. His was close. :jump: :jump:
Most people can give a little credit.
Finding fault with people's picks is one thing.....finding fault with people congratulating others on their picks is going a little overboard.
Dahoss9698
06-05-2010, 07:34 PM
Then again, your inability to give anyone credit for anything is usually secondary.
I sure didn't see you give a better version. His was close. :jump: :jump:
Most people can give a little credit.
Finding fault with people's picks is one thing.....finding fault with people congratulating others on their picks is going a little overboard.
I said First Dude would be on the lead and wouldn't get carried wide. He made the rail before the turn. How was his closer than that? Let's be honest. You're trying to one up me and you aren't going to let facts get in your way.
They never do.
there's always next year, Tom
Your name is in my calendar. :D
MNslappy
06-05-2010, 07:54 PM
Thanks for the info Joanied. I saw them talking about the shoe change on espn after you posted. I'm definitely changing my exacta around on hearing this news.
Interesting that Haskin, just yesterday wrote this: "Also, it must be stated that Drosselmeyer (http://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-racing/thoroughbred/drosselmeyer/2007?source=BHonline) has had the best work turned in by a Belmont starter."
Maybe it's a big deal, maybe it's not. I don't think I can play him on top now though. So if he wins I'll be kicking myself for a while.
:bang:
WinterTriangle
06-05-2010, 08:30 PM
I said First Dude would be on the lead and wouldn't get carried wide. He made the rail before the turn. How was his closer than that? Let's be honest. You're trying to one up me and you aren't going to let facts get in your way.
They never do.
Who is trying to one up you? I POSTED A CONGRATULATIONS to ANOTHER POSTER. !!!!!
:bang:
You weren't quoted in my post, you weren't even mentioned in my post, and you weren't who I even posted to!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Obviously, you are offended that I posted a congrats to another poster, And you had to jump in to the thread, bash him and also bash me for complimenting him.........if that is "one upping you" then so be it. did I miss congratulating you on something?
BTW, I'd say he had the race scenario down. IF you look at his Belmont 6/5 topic:
HE HIT THE EXACTA, TRIFECTA and SUPERFECTA for this race!!
Race 11
$2 WPS - 5+6+7
$1 TRI - 5+6+7+11/5+6+7+8+11/3+4+5+6+7+8+11+12
$0.10 SF - 5+6+7/5+6+7+11/5+6+7+8+11+12/3+4+5+6+7+8+9+10+11+12
$2 EX - 5+6+7/5+6+7+11
So, excuse me if I congratulate somebody who "saw" the race right, even though he didn't explain it exactly like you thought he should......obviously he saw it right since he won every exotic wager for the race, huh? :D
If I want to congratulate somebody, and it's not you, just butt out of the conversation. It has nothing to do with you.
tbwinner
06-05-2010, 08:42 PM
Thanks for the credit WinterTriangle. Dahoss has a point; I said First Dude would get shuffled on the first turn, but I was SURELY DAMN RIGHT about Interactif being there too, as well as Fly Down and Drosselmeyer taking it on the final stretch.
Good day today, hope you all had some winners! And BIG KUDOS to Pace for the super there!
Chris
Shelby
06-05-2010, 08:50 PM
How did Downtowncharliebrown lose his weights????????
http://nbcsports.msnbc.com/id/37531404/ns/sports-horse_racing/
bisket
06-05-2010, 08:57 PM
excellant play pace :ThmbUp: . i never look at the home page.
Dahoss9698
06-05-2010, 10:20 PM
Who is trying to one up you? I POSTED A CONGRATULATIONS to ANOTHER POSTER. !!!!!
:bang:
You weren't quoted in my post, you weren't even mentioned in my post, and you weren't who I even posted to!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Obviously, you are offended that I posted a congrats to another poster, And you had to jump in to the thread, bash him and also bash me for complimenting him.........if that is "one upping you" then so be it. did I miss congratulating you on something?
BTW, I'd say he had the race scenario down. IF you look at his Belmont 6/5 topic:
HE HIT THE EXACTA, TRIFECTA and SUPERFECTA for this race!!
Race 11
$2 WPS - 5+6+7
$1 TRI - 5+6+7+11/5+6+7+8+11/3+4+5+6+7+8+11+12
$0.10 SF - 5+6+7/5+6+7+11/5+6+7+8+11+12/3+4+5+6+7+8+9+10+11+12
$2 EX - 5+6+7/5+6+7+11
So, excuse me if I congratulate somebody who "saw" the race right, even though he didn't explain it exactly like you thought he should......obviously he saw it right since he won every exotic wager for the race, huh? :D
If I want to congratulate somebody, and it's not you, just butt out of the conversation. It has nothing to do with you.
You are really confused. Even the person you were congratulating said I had a point. But I guess this means no more pm's wanting help with handicapping.
Oh well. :lol:
Dahoss9698
06-05-2010, 10:22 PM
Thanks for the credit WinterTriangle. Dahoss has a point; I said First Dude would get shuffled on the first turn, but I was SURELY DAMN RIGHT about Interactif being there too, as well as Fly Down and Drosselmeyer taking it on the final stretch.
Good day today, hope you all had some winners! And BIG KUDOS to Pace for the super there!
Chris
Nice job with your plays.
FEARTHECHOMP
06-05-2010, 10:55 PM
Well I said Icebox and Flydown would pass 1st dude in the last 1/8ht of a mile while he finished 3rd or 4th...Only problem was Ice box cooled off...Drossemeyer is not a better horse then Flydown.....Just a better trip today...
fmhealth
06-05-2010, 11:47 PM
Just some random thoughts on today's races at Belmont.
If you boxed PAs picks in the Belmont you collected in excess of $10,500 in the Super. WOW!! Exceptionally well done.
I've never seen a horse DQ'd for returning with less weight than required. How in the world did this happen to UptownCB? Cost his connections about 30 grand.
Only three horses in this race had previous experience over the Belmont strip. Dross ( 2 starts), Fly Down (2 starts) and Ice Box (1 start). This angle produced a $28.00 winner along with a$144.00 exactor.
Last & probably least. In 1961 Globemaster ran second @ 17-1 in this race. Today Globemaster ran 12th and last at 73-1 in the 13th race. Who was his trainer, Rod Sterling?
bisket
06-05-2010, 11:52 PM
Well I said Icebox and Flydown would pass 1st dude in the last 1/8ht of a mile while he finished 3rd or 4th...Only problem was Ice box cooled off...Drossemeyer is not a better horse then Flydown.....Just a better trip today...
better trip? dross was 5 wide on both turns. whats gonna happen when this horse win the travers?
heres the chart
http://drf.com/drfPDFChartRacesIndexAction.do?TRK=BEL&CTY=USA&DATE=20100605&RN=11
Dahoss9698
06-06-2010, 12:22 AM
better trip? dross was 5 wide on both turns. whats gonna happen when this horse win the travers?
heres the chart
http://drf.com/drfPDFChartRacesIndexAction.do?TRK=BEL&CTY=USA&DATE=20100605&RN=11
The Travers? :lol:
WinterTriangle
06-06-2010, 03:34 AM
better trip? dross was 5 wide on both turns. whats gonna happen when this horse win the travers?
bisket. I give credit to Dross winning because going wide around the turns at Belmont is usually certain death for getting ITM at that distance.
However, Mike Smith,had to work hard getting Dross to the wire..........he said it was like peddling constantly. :D Mike was so out of breath afterwards and he is in top shape. When he comes in on Zen he is not out of breath
If he wants to win the Travers, they better get Smith again, becuase I credit him with 1/2 of this win.
FEARTHECHOMP
06-06-2010, 07:45 AM
better trip? dross was 5 wide on both turns. whats gonna happen when this horse win the travers?
heres the chart
http://drf.com/drfPDFChartRacesIndexAction.do?TRK=BEL&CTY=USA&DATE=20100605&RN=11
I see the chart...I also seen a brilliant ride by Mike smith keeping Flydown behind him for the last half mile by making fly alter course multiple times...Flydown has push button acceleration and this his has tons of potential to continue to improve...And add to that this physical presence is scary....Look for him to be the man from here on out with Esky gone...
KingChas
06-06-2010, 10:13 AM
looked at the Probables does anybody think Stately Victor can win this race?
:ThmbUp:
Clearly a horse that does not want to run on real dirt.
Fooled me twice-shame on me. ;)
joanied
06-06-2010, 02:18 PM
Thanks for the info Joanied. I saw them talking about the shoe change on espn after you posted. I'm definitely changing my exacta around on hearing this news.
Interesting that Haskin, just yesterday wrote this: "Also, it must be stated that Drosselmeyer (http://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-racing/thoroughbred/drosselmeyer/2007?source=BHonline) has had the best work turned in by a Belmont starter."
Maybe it's a big deal, maybe it's not. I don't think I can play him on top now though. So if he wins I'll be kicking myself for a while.
I hope you didn't kick yourself too hard, slappy...maybe I regret posting that news, which kinda spooked me, so I'm glad it was mentioned on the show...looks like it didn't bother him one bit...I counted him out, I really liked First Dude to win it...and he damned near did!!
joanied
06-06-2010, 02:24 PM
Yes, thanks... oh well-- good thing I only bet 2 bucks at a time!
Um... what's a "frog" anyway? :confused:
Oh, wow...it's on the bottom of the foot, Sally...triangle shaped and absorbs shock.
here's a link to a diagram of the bottom of a horse foot...
ya learn somethin' new everyday:)
http://www.barefoothorse.com/
joanied
06-06-2010, 03:07 PM
Thanks for the credit WinterTriangle. Dahoss has a point; I said First Dude would get shuffled on the first turn, but I was SURELY DAMN RIGHT about Interactif being there too, as well as Fly Down and Drosselmeyer taking it on the final stretch.
Good day today, hope you all had some winners! And BIG KUDOS to Pace for the super there!
Chris
tbwinner....I also thought there was a good chance that First Dude would get carried wide...it was my fear for him, as I did have him to win...I was very impressed that way his jock got him outta there and cut over...brilliant start to the race!!
joanied
06-06-2010, 03:52 PM
I am really late with my posts on the belmont. I had a bad day:mad: yesterday...my plans for watching every bit of TV racing was dashed when I had to go help my husband irrigate (we farm)...it turned into a disaster, won't bore you with details, but a 90 minute job turned into an all afternoon job...so I never got on line, didn't see the ESPN show until last night, and the belmont on ABC until this morning :faint:
I thought it was a great race, despite such slow fractions and my horse finishing 3rd...to those who had Drosslemeyer...congratulations on a job well done.
Congratulations to Bill Mott & Mike Smith...two most deserving winners...Mott did a bang up job training DM, especially having to contend with his ouchy feet...and Mike could not have ridden a more perfect race...he was exhausted afterwards, and talked about how he had to ride every inch of the way...I can imagine how looooong that backstretch felt to Mikey yesterday!!
Way to go, team Drosslemeyer:jump:
Also...congratulations:) to everyone that hit the numbers...excellent handicapping, and a big congrats to PA...you are the 'first dude' of handicapping today:ThmbUp:
bisket
06-06-2010, 06:04 PM
I see the chart...I also seen a brilliant ride by Mike smith keeping Flydown behind him for the last half mile by making fly alter course multiple times...Flydown has push button acceleration and this his has tons of potential to continue to improve...And add to that this physical presence is scary....Look for him to be the man from here on out with Esky gone...
heres the replay i don't see it. that hole was moving faster the fly down was running coming out of the turn for home. the fact is fly down ran comfortably the whole time throughout the backstretch. the jock didn't ask fly down until the end. the horse had plenty of room to run outside early in the stretch. i guess the jock knew he only had one run from fly down at this distance. i do think fly down is the better horse of zito's two.
http://www.drf.com/replays/savedreplays.jsp?RACE=734
Cratos
06-07-2010, 08:05 PM
Drosselmeyer won the Belmont Stakes and those who picked him to win or be part of their exotic boxes should be congratulated because taking a non-stakes winner over stakes winners takes some guts and a keen insight into handicapping.
However I always review the post race charts and see if the pre-race angles I saw held up and for Drosselmeyer they did big time, but again he wasn’t anywhere near my wagering radar.
The angles that were there for me and others might have seen more; were him being well-bred out of Distorted Humor which is good when you are speaking of the Belmont, broke slow and blocked in his last race as he rallied to get 2nd in a G2 stakes race, change of jockey, and change of equipment.
One might ask if you saw all of this why you didn’t bet him. My answer is
same as earlier; I felt that the stake winners in the race outweighed Drosselmeyer’s angle attributes.
I laid my wooden nickels on Interactif who gave me a momentary thrill as he stayed in contention until the 1 ¼ mile point before fading very badly.
However if Interactif trains well and Pletcher enters him in the Travers; and given who might be in there with him I might give him another shot, but at this juncture that is all conjecture.
A. Pineda
06-08-2010, 09:17 PM
The angles that were there for me and others might have seen more; were him being well-bred out of Distorted Humor which is good when you are speaking of the Belmont, broke slow and blocked in his last race as he rallied to get 2nd in a G2 stakes race, change of jockey, and change of equipment.
I liked Ice Box, until Zito said that he would not change his running syle. I then settled on Interactif, as he could stay close but was a question mark for the surface and final 1/4. About two hours before the race, I read a race rundown by Randy moss, in which he stated that Dross was "too slow." This set the wheels turning, as we know that slow horses can win if they catch the right distance or surface.
I didn't like his effort in the Dwyer, but Dross was the best horse in the La. Derby. Kent angled over to the rail from post 13 and saved ground, but every time he tried to make a move he was blocked or the hole closed. Finally, he found room about 40 yards from the wire and surged to miss by a length. Of course, all of this was noted in the DRF comments, "Inside, not enough late."
In an open race full of young horses with question marks re their fitness or ability to get the distance, he wasn't the worst choice you could make.
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