LTCP, N155 MODEL,BEST I HAVE, 05-18-2010, AFTER 98 PLAYS, 1%LOSS

[formula_2002]

5-18-2010
THE NI55 LPTC MODEL
SINCE 4-10-2010,
through 05-17-2010
39 WINS, 98 PLAYS
WIN POOL: $194.40 RETURNED, $196 BET, .99 ROI
EXACTA POOL: $261.10 RETURNED, $358 BET, .73 ROI
DAILY DOUBLE POOL: $14.40 RETURNED, $6 BET
exotics roi = .76

THIS MODEL IS EXPECTED TO CONCLUDE WITH A WIN POOL PROFIT OVER A PERIOD OF ATLEAST 500 RACES

WIN AND exacta BETTING. minimum field size is 7 betting interest
BET TO WIN IF MODEL SELECTION IS 1ST OR SECOND IN THE BETTING
BET EXACTA IF MODEL SELECTION IS FAVORITE, BET 1/2ND AND 3RD BETTING CHOICES
ALSO, IF MODEL SELECTION IS FAVORITE, AND FIELD SIZE IS >=9 , ALSO PLAY 1/ 4TH CHOICE
BET EXACTA IF MODEL SELECTION IS 2ND FAVORITE, BET 2/1, (2ND FAV/FAV)
For a previous exacta analysis of the model, see http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/showthread.php?t=61591
FOR PREVIOUS RESULTS OF A 200 PLAY LESSER MODEL GO TO MY HOME PAGE


TRACK RACE # PGNO NAME ML POST TIME N155 MULTIPLIER N228 FIELD SIZE FINAL ODDS N157
DEL 7 3 SERENITY GIR 8.00 3:57 33.889 0.09 0.577 10 999 2
RDX 12 1 WEATHERSTORM 4.00 4:46 32.329 0.10 0.691 10 999 2

DEL 9 2 PROUD BOG 3.50 4:51 35.283 0.10 0.683 13 999 2
PRM 4 4 ICE CREAM CU 2.00 5:50 37.135 0.09 0.583 7 999 2

[formula_2002]

Delaware - Race 7
# Win Place Show
3 $12.20 $5.60 $4.20

[SansuiSC]

Very nice!!!

Used in DD & P3, all paid well.

Should help your ROI

[SansuiSC]

Wow, Proud Bog scored too. Didn't care for the lines. But the $1 P3 w/3/all/2 for $5 total paid $116.

I liked the speed of SERENITY GIRL though.

Didn't play it but way to go!!

Nice model.

[formula_2002]

Delaware - Race 9 Chart
# Win Place Show
2 $3.80 $3.40 $3.40

[formula_2002]

River/Thistledown - Race 12
# Win Place Show
1 $6.40 $2.80 $2.60
4 . $2.60 $2.60
5 . . $8.80
Results: 01 | 02 | 03 | 04 | 05 | 06 | 07 | 08 | 09 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | ALL
Wager Type Winning Numbers Paid
$1.00 Exacta 1-4 $5.80

[formula_2002]

Wow, Proud Bog scored too. Didn't care for the lines. But the $1 P3 w/3/all/2 for $5 total paid $116.

I liked the speed of SERENITY GIRL though.

Didn't play it but way to go!!

Nice model.


3 FOR 3 SO FAR

THANKS

[formula_2002]

PRM 4 4 7 HORSE FIELD, 2ND CHOICE RAN OUT

[Rise Over Run]

Delaware - Race 7
# Win Place Show
3 $12.20 $5.60 $4.20

Why would you count this play? Your rules say:

minimum field size is 7 betting interest
BET TO WIN IF MODEL SELECTION IS 1ST OR SECOND IN THE BETTING

This horse was the 4th choice, so there should be no win bet per the model. You routinely throw out plays when the field size is less than 7.

[formula_2002]

Why would you count this play? Your rules say:

minimum field size is 7 betting interest
BET TO WIN IF MODEL SELECTION IS 1ST OR SECOND IN THE BETTING

This horse was the 4th choice, so there should be no win bet per the model. You routinely throw out plays when the field size is less than 7.

You are right. I just noticed that myself..It seems I lost sight of that "1st or 2nd in the betting" for some time now..I dont think I have ever eliminated a horse here under those conditions, however I have to check that.
Same applies to the exacta bets..
Shortly, I'll update my data base for all the posted plays with the Bris XRD results files and we can make an extended analysis of the plays.
Until then, I'll keep score based on the way I think I've been doing so.

[formula_2002]

I went back to the begining of these picks,http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/showthread.php?t=69504,
and find that it seems even since then I have included the >2nd choices.
If I have included the >2 choice winners, I suspect I also included the losers.
I'll keep checking

[formula_2002]

I went back to the begining of these picks,http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/showthread.php?t=69504,
and find that it seems even since then I have included the >2nd choices.
If I have included the >2 choice winners, I suspect I also included the losers.
I'll keep checking
The more I check, the more certain I am that I never threw out a loser when >2nd in the betting.

Here are some examples of losing >2nd choices

4/10, pen r4, #1
4/11 pha r4, #2
5/2 mnr r5 #9
5/6 bel r4 #5
5/8 del r6 #2
5/15 pen r5 #3.

One of the earlier studies I made of the model showed less of a profit when the betting included >2nd choice, but a more recent study showed a bit better profit when >2nd choice was included.
Most of the plays are either 1st or 2nd choices in the betting.