The Preakness, time to take the heat

[GARY Z]

PA:

I agree with you about S.D hitting the Board,BUT if you like #2
you should Love Jackson Bend.

Despite issues about JB and Stamina, both JB and SD exit the Wood and JB
easily ran better than SD.Coupled with the fact that Ramon opts for
First Dude, and that JN has three beautiful works for this race,
again has Mike Smith on him, and by the way was "coached" by
Borel in the Wood.he is trained by Nicky Z who somehow always
upsets in this races, and I'm drooling...

That said, there is a lot of payback here, as Ice Box looked awesome in the Derby, had a poor trip and the winner, having zero trouble ran a top
in the sloip(great poetry).

I'm thinking the early speed consists of from SD and
Ywana Twist but I'm hoping Coa will sit back and let YT take the
lead , he'll lay 2nd and JB will be sitting third with and the presser..

If it does rain Saturday delete this message, but at the end of the day
my tri/exacta box is 6-2-11-10.

I'm hoping for 10-1 or more on JB , if he's at 5-1, all bets are
off, except for my picks 4's in which JB is Keyed.

If I'm dead wrong , I'll use Super and dublin in supers to beat my top 4...


:jump: :eek: :jump: :cool:

[Bobzilla]

Jackson Bend is currently 11/1. Not sure how much that will change by post time. The will pay with the Acting Happy/ Jackson Bend double looks like the 6th choice, though with AH winning at 10/1 I'm not sure that the double will pay is a good barometer.

I agree with you. Although I think SS has a good chance to win this, I think JB will offer the best odds relative to his true chances of winning. Pressing the runaway FOY winner I think will prove to have been more difficult than possibly running to the inside of SS, or on the front in today's race. I sense there is more to this horse than what initially shows on paper. Ran a 100 BSF in the In Reality against some useful Florida Breds last year. And in case he didn't get tightened up enough from his Derby race, Zito put a pretty sharp bullet breeze into him on Monday morning. I have a feeling JB might be feeling it today. As long as the early fractions aren't too fast I don't think distance would be a problem for him. I'll be playing JB to win today and have him underneath several others in exotic combinations. Good Luck today.

[GARY Z]

My trainer is down in Md, advised some thunder showers last
night, bright and sunny now.

Track fast by Preakness time... :jump:

Gl to U2 BOBZ !!

:6: ::

:jump: :jump: :jump:

[bobphilo]

Super Saver on top. Most people ignore the fact that his "perfect trip" in the Derby was not entirely due to luck but was mainly due to the horse's flexability, tactical speed and the services of calvin Borel - all of which he will also have today. His PaceFigure performance figures make him look even better.

Must includes in the Exacta are Lookin At Lucky, and Paddy O' Prado. Also consider. Lucky is a class act but even if we put a line through his troubled trips, he still has to inprove his figures to match SS.

I will include Dublin and Pleasant Prince in the bottom of the Exactas.

Bob

[Red Knave]

PA, we're thinking alike.

Here's my wagering for the race

05/15/2010 05:11:45 PM (EDT) Bet Pimlico, Race 11, $1.00 DBL 4,6,9 / 2,5,8,12 - ( Ouch, close but no cigar)
05/15/2010 05:12:45 PM (EDT) Bet Pimlico, Race 12, $1.00 TRI 2,5,12 / 8 / 2,5-7,11,12
05/15/2010 05:12:26 PM (EDT) Bet Pimlico, Race 12, $5.00 WIN 5
05/15/2010 05:13:03 PM (EDT) Bet Pimlico, Race 12, $2.00 TRI 8 / 2,5,12 / 2,5-7,11,12
05/15/2010 05:13:16 PM (EDT) Bet Pimlico, Race 12, $1.00 EXA 2,5,12 / 8
05/15/2010 05:13:29 PM (EDT) Bet Pimlico, Race 12, $5.00 EXA 8 / 2,5,12

[Steve 'StatMan']

Super Save is good, but I think he'll be in a close one with Lookin At Lucky, we should see more with a better trip today than in the Derby, while we know what Super Saver can do.

I'm picking Lookin At Lucky. Can't say either is a great price for betting.

[SmartyLane]

$5 Trifecta
Super Saver w/
First Dude, Pleasant Prince, LAL, Paddy w/
Same

[bobphilo]

Well, it looks like the only factors I forgot to consider were the effects of their big Derby races for Super Saver and Paddy O'Prado who bounced big time. Lookin At Lucky finally got the lucky trip he needed and was a game winner. Behind him it was longshot city with First Dude, Jackson Bend and Yawanna Twist in close pursuit.

It does appear that Borel's ground saving tactics have made an impression on his fellow jockeys as nobody went more than 2 wide on the 1st turn and not much wider on the far turn - unusual for a large 12 horse field.

Though it didn't really make much difference, Borel seemed to go against the strategy he followed in the Derby where he would rate SS if the pace were hot. He apparently decided the pace would be soft and sent his horse at the start and pressed a very hot pace. Rating SS would not have made that much difference though, as his horse just didn't have it today.

Bob

[WinterTriangle]

PA:

if you like #2 you should Love Jackson Bend.

JB came in 3rd-4th in my scoring system (mostly based on pedigree)

I had to give JB a few extra points due to his damsire winning the Preakness and Belmont, and has a few 10F winners as well (same damsire as Ice Box.).

JB has 5 wins on dirt, and 4 2nds on dirt. He has speed. His race record shows he's very game, despite thoughts that he might be distance challenged, he seems to make up for it by being so versatile and game.

Then of course.......it's ZITO. :)

Like Musket Man, SY is a horse who could surprise, but I had to toss him for being ITM for the Preakness, based on a number of factors.

[JPinMaryland]

I did not think the pace all that hot; although I dont really study Pimlico much. Is 1.11 and change a hot pace for the Preakness?

[bobphilo]

I did not think the pace all that hot; although I dont really study Pimlico much. Is 1.11 and change a hot pace for the Preakness?

The question isn't so much were the early fractions fast for the Preakness as much as were they fast relative to the final time and/or how fast the track was that day.

True, however, It wasn't as fast as the Derby. Though the quarter and half splits were similar, the Preakness final time was considerably faster than the Derby's, indicating the Pimlico strip was faster than Churchill, making the Preakness fractions less impressive. Borel did say when asked why he was so close to the quick early fractions that they were the product of a fast track that day.

I would amend saying that the Preakness pace was hot, to merely fast, while the Derby was suicidal. First Dude was able to hold Lucky off gamely until the last 16th and held the place well despite setting the pace. The Derby pace was toxic to all those anywhere near it.

Bob