View Full Version : Official PaceAdvantage.com Preakness Analysis

05-15-2010, 05:06 AM
http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/images/SCNums/2.jpg Schoolyard Dreams
http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/images/SCNums/8.jpg Super Saver
http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/images/SCNums/12.jpg Dublin
http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/images/SCNums/7.jpg Lookin At Lucky

What a contrast in pace scenarios between the Kentucky Derby two weeks ago, and today's Preakness Stakes. On paper, the former was packed with speed on the front end, and the resultant pace of the Derby lived up to expectations, with those near the front absolutely smoked in the end after setting diabolical fractions.

Today's Preakness is almost the total opposite in terms of prospective early pace. Gone are the abundance of need-to-lead types that we saw two weeks ago. In fact, there are none in the Preakness.

Given this anticipated setup, you want horses who can stick close to the front end throughout. Unfortunately, this bit of knowledge doesn't help much in weeding out the field, as this race is primarily composed of pace pressers (I count seven of them, along with three early types and maybe two come-from-behind runners).

But enough foreplay. Let's get down to why we're here. You see my picks for this race above. Allow me to briefly explain why.

Why Schoolyard Dreams on top? Why the hell not? Here's a horse who definitely has the right running style, as he has shown the ability to sit just off of or press the early pace on multiple occasions. His last race was against Eskendereya in the Wood Memorial, and that horse was simply a monster compared to anything else that will be running in any of the Triple Crown races in 2010. If ever there was a horse this year with Triple Crown potential, Eskendereya was it. Thus, I can easily look past Schoolyard Dreams' finish in that race.

I believe SD's figure pattern puts him in a position to run a career best today. I like the fact that the Wood Memorial most likely took little out of this horse and he's coming into this race fresh and ready to run back to (and beyond) his two Tampa stakes efforts. And let's not forget he actually beat Super Saver in the Tampa Bay Derby.

At 15-1 on the morning line, this horse could also offer a price, although with the way wagering has gone in Triple Crown races as of late, you can't put much faith in morning lines these days. But if he's anywhere near double digits, you're probably getting the biggest gift you're likely to see this year in a major stakes race. I like this horse a lot.

Super Saver is my second choice for obvious reasons. As you may recall, I came this close to putting him on top for the Kentucky Derby, but wimped out at the last moment. For the Preakness, there wasn't nearly as much debate in my head. Yes, Super Saver's running style fits this year's Preakness perfectly. He can go to the lead or he can sit right off of it, he's that tractable, and therefore he is that dangerous.

However, part of me believes the Derby might have been tougher on this horse than some think given his dream trip in that race over the slop. Calvin Borel was getting into him pretty good down the stretch (I think he hit him close to 20 times from the top of the stretch to the finish). Couple this with the fact he's going to be the post time favorite and I see little value in betting this horse to win.

Dublin rounds out my trifecta. For some reason, I can't give up on this horse. Maybe it's the Lukas thing. Maybe it's the fact that he's been right there in all of his races prior to the Derby. Whatever it is, I think he'll bounce back off the poor showing in the Derby with new jockey Garrett Gomez.

Lookin At Lucky was a horse I totally threw out in the Derby. However, by default he is a contender in the Preakness because this field is a bit light in the talent department once you get past the top two. He is intriguing because his best race to date came on a dry dirt surface (the Rebel at Oaklawn). He will be getting dry dirt again today, and if his new jockey Martin Garcia can keep him closer to the pace (and out of trouble), he should be much closer at the finish.<p><hr><p><div align="center"><center><table border="0" cellspacing="0" width="765" height="270" bordercolorlight="#000000" bordercolordark="#000000" style="border-collapse: collapse" cellpadding="0"><tr><td width="185" height="270" bgcolor="#000000" bordercolorlight="#000000" bordercolordark="#000000"><img border="0" src="http://www.thoroughbredreview.com/images/skippy3_001.jpg" width="175" height="250"><td width="250" height="270" bgcolor="#000000" bordercolorlight="#000000" bordercolordark="#000000"><p align="center"><b><font face="Verdana" size="5" color="#C0C0C0">Skip Away<br></font></b><font color="#C0C0C0">1993 - 2010</font></p><p align="center"><font color="#C0C0C0"><b>Champion Three-Year-Old (1996)</b><br><b>Champion Older Male (1997 & 98)</b><br><b>Horse of the Year (1998)</b><br>Winner of 18 out of 38 with<br>34 in-the-money finishes<br>and earner of $9.6M.<br>Defeated the mighty Cigar<br>while only a three-year-old in JCGC.<br><b>Hall of Fame (2004)</b></font></td><td width="330" height="270" bgcolor="#000000" bordercolorlight="#000000" bordercolordark="#000000"><object width="324" height="270"><param name="movie" value="http://www.youtube.com/v/vKkOx2z-iC8"></param><param name="wmode" value="transparent"></param><embed src="http://www.youtube.com/v/vKkOx2z-iC8" type="application/x-shockwave-flash" wmode="transparent" width="324" height="270"></embed></object></td></tr></table></center></div>