Question on win pattern of horse-trainer

[BIG HIT]

Do those of you that use them can you define exactly what you mean.?Must be exact dslr class move or not jky switch etc.As prior to last win or more simlar to last win like instead of back 7 days it would be twenty one days.
Just trying toget better understanding of definition.

[castaway01]

Do those of you that use them can you define exactly what you mean.?Must be exact dslr class move or not jky switch etc.As prior to last win or more simlar to last win like instead of back 7 days it would be twenty one days.
Just trying toget better understanding of definition.

It's good to know if a trainer is winning off a layoff, second start off a layoff, third start off a layoff, first off a claim, second off, etc., but it's just as important to know who is hot at the current time. If you make it too strict you're going to break the stats down to a point they're meaningless, but a little bit broader approach can work.

Some don't believe in it, but for me it works, just like anything else can work if you are sharp enough and your information is good enough.

[skate]

Casty01;


Gees, that's some stong point you make and i mean that Babe.

It says something that "You" (anyone) just cant put a figure on and because of "That" it is so very correct.

Many seem to want an exactness, but the only real exactness would be the Odds.


With that said, the horse (my opinion) is the number One tool and then the trainer.
Which is an AWFUL Fast One , Two count. being particular.

[BIG HIT]

I'am mostly a angle player and find even with those you can't have to rigged rules just want to have little better understanding.Thank's you both

[classhandicapper]

IMO most trainers have specific strengths and weaknesses and also have ways of preparing a horse that they tend to repeat when they are trying to get their horses to peak.

I think there are two major components of finding a horse that is very likely to win.

1. Enough ability to win

2. A high probability of running a top effort today.

There are loads of methods for measuring ability.

Traditionally, the second part of the equation has been determined by looking at the horse's consistency record (either consistent figures, wins, places and shows or both)

The value of the trainer pattern is in knowing the horse is very likely to run well today. It's another form of the consistency measurement.

For example:

When one trainer is a 5% guy and another is a 25% guy, there are many things contributing to that, but one part of it that the high % trainer's horses fire their "A" race or improve unexpectedly a higher % of the time than the low % guy whose horse will throw in a clinker more often.

That's why when two horses like that have similar PPs, the public will CORRECTLY bet the high % trainer heavier.

The same is true when a specific trainer gets red hot at a specific meet.

Sometimes because of form cycles and other issues a trainer's horses may all be peaking or throwing in clinkers at the same time. Once the public catches on to the fact that trainer "X"s horses are all firing, they will CORRECTLY start betting them heavier because they know they are more likely to fire or improve than the average horse.

The trick is to find those "high probability of firing" or "high probability of peaking" patterns that the public is not aware of. It's very difficult in an age of lots of information .

[therussmeister]

I believe making money is all about finding patterns. Not making money at the race track, but making money anywhere. The thing is, you will virtually never see a situation that matches a pattern exactly, that's what makes it so hard both to identify a pattern and than to take advantage of a pattern. That is why after a race you can often find people doing this. :bang: :bang: :bang: It is much easier to identify a pattern match after the fact.

It is like an IQ test that might ask what is the next number in this sequence:

1 2 3 5 8 13 ?

That's easy, but the real world is like this:

1 5 6 2 3 7 5 9 9 8 13 ?

That is the exact same pattern with a lot of extraneous information that needs to be ignored.

[ranchwest]

Tracking trainers can involve a lot. For instance, national trainers may have a number of assistants. Which assistants are having the most success and why? At what claiming level is a trainer having the most success? There's a lot of questions like that for which most people don't have an answer.

[Fastracehorse]

Do those of you that use them can you define exactly what you mean.?Must be exact dslr class move or not jky switch etc.As prior to last win or more simlar to last win like instead of back 7 days it would be twenty one days.
Just trying toget better understanding of definition.

Even a horse with a hot barn won't win if he's not doing well. The game is competitive so U need your bets to be rounding INTO form or are still in form.

The horse's last race is an indicator - if he shows speed at any point in the race the horse may be sitting on a win. Or if he ran even. Works can be signs too; look for all sorts of trainer changes like blinker, shoes, and, jocks.

He may run the horse back on 7 days rest if the horse is still sharp; he may wait 6 weeks; it's an educated guess.

Horses that ran over their head are bounce candidates - I like fresh, fresh, fresh.

GL,

fffastt

[classhandicapper]

I don't think you want to get so specific that you reduce the sample size too much, but sometimes you have to get specific enough to help as long as the pattern makes sense.

Suppose a guy is better with turf horses than dirt horses and seems to be really good with turf sprinters but the sample of turf sprinters is really small.

You might be curious about how he does with dirt sprinters relative to dirt routers. If you find he's better with dirt sprinters too, you might have more faith that he's better with sprinters in general and start looking closely at those turf sprinters for additional clues. But if you take that kind of thing too far, you'll wind up finding patterns that don't exist.

[bisket]

bigD this turned out to be probably the key to the preakness. pletcher's horses hardly ever repeat form. this is one of my most basic handicapping angles for pletcher. i know you've seen many posts to this affect on pletcher from me. i have no idea why after the derby this never entered into my thought process for the preakness :bang: this how i feel this morning
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=J-pyGdJCV04
i guess i just got to much into the euphoria of derby win :faint: