Preakness Betting Stratagy

[Smarty Cide]

1. Aikenite 20-1
2. Schoolyard 10-1
3. Pleasant Prince 20-1
4. Northern Giant 30-1
5. Yawanna Twist 30-1
6. Jackson Bend 12-1
7. Lookin At Lucky 3-1
8. Super Saver 5-2
9. Caracortado 10-1
10. Paddy O' Prado 9-2
11. First Dude 20-1
12. Dublin 10-1


Looking at those odds the Preakness is gonna be tough to bet. The past couple years iv done really well with the preakness.

last year i had rachel and all and also put 200 on musket man to show. so i did well there.

the year before i just bet heavy on big brown and all. that did well. actually that whole year i bet big brown heavy every race and did great. because of that he is my favorite horse of all time.

the year before that i hit the win bet, the exacta, and the tri.


but this year i think its so hard to try to put something together. probably going to put a pretty good size bet on schoolyard dreams to show. but i have no clue how else to bet it based on those yards.

how u guys gonna bet it?

[bisket]

i'm looking pretty hard at schoolyard for an in the money finish myself, but haven't decided just yet.

[only11]

1. Aikenite 20-1
2. Schoolyard 10-1
3. Pleasant Prince 20-1
4. Northern Giant 30-1
5. Yawanna Twist 30-1
6. Jackson Bend 12-1
7. Lookin At Lucky 3-1
8. Super Saver 5-2
9. Caracortado 10-1
10. Paddy O' Prado 9-2
11. First Dude 20-1
12. Dublin 10-1


Looking at those odds the Preakness is gonna be tough to bet. The past couple years iv done really well with the preakness.

last year i had rachel and all and also put 200 on musket man to show. so i did well there.

the year before i just bet heavy on big brown and all. that did well. actually that whole year i bet big brown heavy every race and did great. because of that he is my favorite horse of all time.

the year before that i hit the win bet, the exacta, and the tri.


but this year i think its so hard to try to put something together. probably going to put a pretty good size bet on schoolyard dreams to show. but i have no clue how else to bet it based on those yards.

how u guys gonna bet it?
Im betting win $175 on Aikenite/Caracotado...Wheeling them back and forth.. Super Saver let him beat me..

[Smarty Cide]

how do u estimate what a show bet would pay? say you take schoolyard dreams to show and get him at 10-1. on average what does that pay? and how is that calculated?

[bisket]

how do u estimate what a show bet would pay? say you take schoolyard dreams to show and get him at 10-1. on average what does that pay? and how is that calculated?
smarty it depends on who finishes ahead of him as to what you'll get on schoolyard for a show bet. if super and lucky finish in the top two spots schoolyard won't pay much to show. i think its a pretty good bet that lucky and super finish 1 and 2 so i'm gonna play a trifecta with those 2 in the top 2 spots and put schoolyard and someone else in the 3 spot.

[precocity]

don't know yet usually i wait 1 hour to bet before the race to see how the track is playing out? but for whats its worth my gut feeling tells me Dublin is going to hit the Bord?????? :12:

[bisket]

how do u estimate what a show bet would pay? say you take schoolyard dreams to show and get him at 10-1. on average what does that pay? and how is that calculated?
i didn't answer your question. to determine your payment on a show bet the pool is distributed by the amount that is wagered to show on all 3 horses that finish in the top 3 spots. so if two horses finish ahead of schoolyard are played heavily it will take alot of money from the pool to pay those wagers, and the amount you get for your show bet will be decreased. now if the two other horses that finish ahead of schoolyard have longer odds say dublin and caracortado your winnings will be much higher because those two horses most likely won't be bet as heavily as lucky and super. so the amount you win depends on what other horses you are sharing the pool with. its a tough bet to stay in the black with because you really have no clue what your payment will be.

[Smarty Cide]

smarty it depends on who finishes ahead of him as to what you'll get on schoolyard for a show bet. if super and lucky finish in the top two spots schoolyard won't pay much to show. i think its a pretty good bet that lucky and super finish 1 and 2 so i'm gonna play a trifecta with those 2 in the top 2 spots and put schoolyard and someone else in the 3 spot.

what about paddy o'prado? dont u think he can finish in the top 2? he finished ahead of lucky in the derby.. i guess out of those 3 though u have to leave 1 of them out and let the card fall where they may

[bisket]

i think paddy finished where he did in the derby because of the mud, and other horses having traffic problems. thats just my opinion though. he's probably the biggest underlay in the field in my opinion.

[horses4courses]

There's every chance I won't be playing this race....
Sit back, enjoy, and hope we get a shot at a TC winner.
Won't get my money, though.

[Smarty Cide]

yeah thats kinda what my gut was telling me. i was thinking basically lucky, ss, and schoolyard are my 3 keys and if paddy wins or places, ill just have to take that on the chin.

maybe do a tri 7,8 w 7,8, w 2,3,6,9,10,12

then go across the board on schoolyard dreams

then maybe play some exacta's but as best i can remember the exacta usually pays crappy for the preakness, because the favs seem to do well usually....

[GaryG]

This will be a small bet for me, as was the derby. First Dude was severely compromised by the draw, but I may put a small win bet on him anyway. Schoolyard Dreams drew very well with closers to both sides. The Wood looks like a negative race except for the winner, but another like his Tampa race could win it. New rider every time.

[bisket]

i was just lookin at the pps. i think yawanna twist is sitting on a big one. i think he will hit the board, but i don't think a big one for him puts him in the first spot. i think lucky is a single in the 1 spot in this race. yawanna and super boxed in the 2 and 3 spots. i may throw another horse in the mix for the 3 hole, but have to look a little further. i like yawanna to suprise.

[Smarty Cide]

i was just lookin at the pps. i think yawanna twist is sitting on a big one. i think he will hit the board, but i don't think a big one for him puts him in the first spot. i think lucky is a single in the 1 spot in this race. yawanna and super boxed in the 2 and 3 spots. i may throw another horse in the mix for the 3 hole, but have to look a little further. i like yawanna to suprise.

yeah i was looking at him too to throw in a show bet or on the back end of my tri. but id have to bump out caracortado or dublin. actually i should bounce dublin, all that horse does is disappoint

[Sekrah]

Super Saver should roll this bunch here if he doesn't run into any problems.

Yawanna Twist is my other key. These lightly raced horses run very well, usually coming forward in the Preakness.


2008 - Big Brown 1st, Icabad Crane 3rd
2007 - Curlin 1st,
2006 - Bernardini 1st
2004 - Rock Hard Ten 2nd

[Sekrah]

i was just lookin at the pps. i think yawanna twist is sitting on a big one. i think he will hit the board, but i don't think a big one for him puts him in the first spot. i think lucky is a single in the 1 spot in this race. yawanna and super boxed in the 2 and 3 spots. i may throw another horse in the mix for the 3 hole, but have to look a little further. i like yawanna to suprise.

Agree.. Yawanna Twist hasn't run a bad race. Coming in with 6 weeks rest. I hear rumblings that horse actually didn't like the Hawthorne track too much. Pretty impressive to hate the track and still run 2nd to American Lion.

He was gaining on Awesome Act in the Gotham. Another 1/16th and he nails him. He was also spotting AA 2 pounds.

Super Saver will be extremely tough IMO. But I love Dutrow to hit the board with this one.

[lamboguy]

school yard dreams beat super saver in the tampa derby. derek ryan is a top notch up and coming trainer and i don't think he is about to send an empty wagon into baltimore to get embarassed. super saver should run huge with all those works coming into this race.

[picojim]

He was gaining on Awesome Act in the Gotham. Another 1/16th and he nails him.

give me a break ...they could have went around the track 2 more times and he would have never passed him

[Robert Goren]

If there is fast track and I get decent odds, I will make a very small wager on Supersaver. If I don't get decent odds, I might try one of the none derby horses. If it muddy, I won't touch the race. I couldn't pick a winner in the mud if I had to admit that boxcar was right about something.;)

[Sekrah]

give me a break ...they could have went around the track 2 more times and he would have never passed him


What?! Is this post serious or were you being sarcastic?

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KVwXbK1bhbM

Awesome Act had about 5 lengths on Yawanna Twist at the 1/8th pole. (1:44 on video)
Awesome Act won by 1 1/4. He gained roughly 4 lengths on the horse in 1 furlong but wouldn't have caught him if they went two more times around the track?

What the hell are you talking about?

If that race is a 1 3/16th's, Yawanna Twist wins it.

[Sekrah]

school yard dreams beat super saver in the tampa derby. derek ryan is a top notch up and coming trainer and i don't think he is about to send an empty wagon into baltimore to get embarassed. super saver should run huge with all those works coming into this race.


I like Schoolyard Dreams and give him a chance to grab 3rd or 4th here. Running him back quickly in the Wood was a poor "Derby Fever" decision by his connections. But realize that both Schoolyard Dreams and Odysseus were spotted 6 pounds (116) by Super Saver (122) in that race and only beat him by 1/2 a length. And Super Saver was coming in off a layoff.

Even weights and a rusty Super Saver wins by a couple.

[Dahoss9698]

I really don't see a scenario where Yawanna Twist is in the top 5. After the Derby I was hoping to bet against Super Saver because he seemingly had everything go right in the Derby.

But he figures to get it again at Pimlico. He's not unbeatable, but I think he wins. I'll play Schoolyard Dreams, Aikenite and First Dude underneath.

[Sekrah]

I really don't see a scenario where Yawanna Twist is in the top 5. After the Derby I was hoping to bet against Super Saver because he seemingly had everything go right in the Derby.

But he figures to get it again at Pimlico. He's not unbeatable, but I think he wins. I'll play Schoolyard Dreams, Aikenite and First Dude underneath.


I hate Aikenite and First Dude. Why the love?

Aikenite has been terrible past 1 mile, true to his pedigree of Yes It's True offspring. Pletcher isn't sending anyone who would topple Super Saver.

I'd give First Dude a better chance than him, but out of the 11 post and quite an underwhelming resume so far, he's still a bit of a reach for me having finished behind two others in this race, Paddy O'Prado and Pleasant Prince.

[Dahoss9698]

I hate Aikenite and First Dude. Why the love?

Aikenite has been terrible past 1 mile, true to his pedigree of Yes It's True offspring. Pletcher isn't sending anyone who would topple Super Saver.

I'd give First Dude a better chance than him, but out of the 11 post and quite an underwhelming resume so far, he's still a bit of a reach for me having finished behind two others in this race, Paddy O'Prado and Pleasant Prince.

I don't think Aikenite has any chance to win, but I think he can be a distant 2nd or 3rd. At least he has been able to make up ground late in some of his races.

Have you looked at Yawanna Twist's pedigree? Not exactly screaming distance.

There is a pretty good run to the turn, so I don't see how First Dude's post will be a problem. I thought his Florida Derby was a better effort than it looks on paper. He was close to a quick pace that collapsed and he had a good deal of trouble coming into the stretch. I just think he might be sitting on a good effort.

I think a dry track will expose Paddy O Prado as being a horse that prefers turf/synth. Pleasant prince is a little interesting, but I don't think he is heading in a good direction.

[McSock]

I am not too sure you can keep both Super Save or Looking at Lucky out of the exacta. I expect one of them to be 1st or 2nd. The more I look at the race and the horses the more confused I seem to get. I most likely will make a token bet of some sort, but not spending a lot on the race.

[WinterTriangle]

Not seein' yawanna twist, sorry.

If it was a regular Sat stakes race, my answer would be different.

Picking a horse who has never won a route, who has only won at 6F, and on top of that, isn't fortified with the breeding to pull such a feat off------to do well in a classic race?

Unless Dutrow has "majic" he's a toss for me. And I don't feel a bit bad about it.

Must admit, lower exotics in this race is a TOUGH CALL. so I probably won't go deep, I lose $$ that way.

[Sekrah]

Yawanna Twist dosage, 2.33. I'm not concerned one bit about his ability to get the distance. He's run hard down the stretch in both his two turn routes and his dam's sire was Oliver's Twist, who lost the Preakness by 1/2 length to Timber Country in 95. Massive amounts of stamina on his dam side.

Aikenite is sucking wind down the stretch of his 1 mile and 1 1/16 mile races. There won't be enough pace up front for a deep closer to make an impact here. I would shocked if that horse beats 3 horses in this field, let alone 9. I'd make him a favorite to beat out Northern Giant, that's about it.

[Sekrah]

Not seein' yawanna twist, sorry.

If it was a regular Sat stakes race, my answer would be different.

Picking a horse who has never won a route, who has only won at 6F, and on top of that, isn't fortified with the breeding to pull such a feat off------to do well in a classic race?

Unless Dutrow has "majic" he's a toss for me. And I don't feel a bit bad about it.

Must admit, lower exotics in this race is a TOUGH CALL. so I probably won't go deep, I lose $$ that way.


Well I'll tell you the same thing I told people before the Derby about Super Saver. "Toss him and rip up your tickets after the race, be my guest. Nobody is holding a gun to your head."



1. Super Saver
2. Yawanna Twist
3. Looking At Lucky
4. Pleasant Prince


Those are the only 4 good enough to win this race. Do what you want.

[Dahoss9698]

Yawanna Twist dosage, 2.33. I'm not concerned one bit about his ability to get the distance. He's run hard down the stretch in both his two turn routes and his dam's sire was Oliver's Twist, who lost the Preakness by 1/2 length to Timber Country in 95. Massive amounts of stamina on his dam side.

Aikenite is sucking wind down the stretch of his 1 mile and 1 1/16 mile races. There won't be enough pace up front for a deep closer to make an impact here. I would shocked if that horse beats 3 horses in this field, let alone 9. I'd make him a favorite to beat out Northern Giant, that's about it.

Dosage? :lol:

You talk about Yes It's True and then totally avoid the fact Yawanna Twist's sire is Yonaguska. We'll agree to disagree that he has "massive amounts" of stamina on his dam side.

Didn't Aikenite soundly beat Pleasant Prince last out? Again, I don't think he has a chance in hell to win. But I'm going to include him underneath. He'll beat Pleasant Prince and Yawanna Twist though.

[Sekrah]

Dosage? :lol:

You talk about Yes It's True and then totally avoid the fact Yawanna Twist's sire is Yonaguska. We'll agree to disagree that he has "massive amounts" of stamina on his dam side.

Didn't Aikenite soundly beat Pleasant Prince last out? Again, I don't think he has a chance in hell to win. But I'm going to include him underneath. He'll beat Pleasant Prince and Yawanna Twist though.

I suppose you can disagree with the facts, it looks pretty foolish though.

Aikenite will not beat Pleasant Prince or Yawanna Twist on Saturday. Get an escrow together, I'll wager whatever you want. It'll be the easiest money I've ever won. Just go ahead to the window Saturday and bet your pig, and rip up your tickets. That'll be much cheaper option for you than taking this bet.

[Market Mover]

I don't think Aikenite has any chance to win, but I think he can be a distant 2nd or 3rd. At least he has been able to make up ground late in some of his races.

Have you looked at Yawanna Twist's pedigree? Not exactly screaming distance.

There is a pretty good run to the turn, so I don't see how First Dude's post will be a problem. I thought his Florida Derby was a better effort than it looks on paper. He was close to a quick pace that collapsed and he had a good deal of trouble coming into the stretch. I just think he might be sitting on a good effort.

I think a dry track will expose Paddy O Prado as being a horse that prefers turf/synth. Pleasant prince is a little interesting, but I don't think he is heading in a good direction.

Don't throw Yawanna Twist out based on pedigree just yet! (At least in the exotics...he's got plenty of bloodlines to hit the board...especially 2nd)..

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=16k025FinoA
His damsire Olivers Twist finally got thru in between horses and ran down Derby winner Thunder Gulch FROM THE INSIDE. He never saw Timber Country way outside or else it might have been closer. At the top of the stretch, he waited and waited for room until Talkin Man drifted out while tiring..in the meantime, Timber Country took the overland route and had clear sailing..he didn't win by much. Had they gone a little farther, it may have been closer...but Olivers Twist did not falter at that mile and a sixteenth distance.


http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HyGTMf_HYuk
Flashback to 1993 and Yawanna Twist's paternal grandsire Cherokee Run finishes a tough-luck 2nd to the ill-fated Prairie Bayou. Cherokee Run ran a winning race, and just missed the prize by half a length or so...it did not look like he was tiring badly at that distance either (he may have gotten first run on the eventual winner a bit too soon).

This Yawanna Twist is a longshot chance at a price. He's got the breeding to run a bang-up race, and last time I checked Musket Man (by Yonaguska) didn't exactly embarrass himself in last year's TC races...

The big surprise is that Prado is listed to ride for Dutrow. Flashback a few weeks to the Prado-Dutrow fiasco at Aqueduct where Prado pulls up the horse who almost hit the rail after getting shut off, and Prado's questionable ride on D'Funnybone...I think he wants to run a big one for 'ole Dicky Dutrow...

We know the colt likes dirt. He's not messed around with poly/cushiontrack/proride...This is a dirt horse. This is a two turn horse.

The play is to key this horse at least in the 2nd position of all exotic wagers. Lest history repeats itself...

[Dahoss9698]

I suppose you can disagree with the facts, it looks pretty foolish though.

Aikenite will not beat Pleasant Prince or Yawanna Twist on Saturday. Get an escrow together, I'll wager whatever you want. It'll be the easiest money I've ever won. Just go ahead to the window Saturday and bet your pig, and rip up your tickets. That'll be much cheaper option for you than taking this bet.

Your opinion of his pedigree is a fact? That's a new one.

I've never seen someone so intent on arguing about a horse who I think has a chance to fill out a trifecta. We'll see what happens Saturday. But remember, you won't be able to make these posts disappear like the other one. So get all of the modifying out now.

[Sekrah]

Market Mover. Thank you. Some people would rather just make up the facts as they go along than take the time to invesitgate the facts.

Yawanna Twist has just as much, if not more stamina pedigree in his bloodlines than this years Derby winner (who I backed with extreme enthusiasm two weeks ago).

Yawanna Twist has a pair of 2nds in two graded stakes two-turn races and I gotta listen to this pedigree crap from someone pushing a horse who lost his two races at 1 1/8 mile by a combined 21 3/4 lengths.

[Dahoss9698]

Don't throw Yawanna Twist out based on pedigree just yet!

I'm not throwing him out based on pedigree. I just don't think he's very good. If this were the Big Apple Triple I'd be all over him.

[Sekrah]

Your opinion of his pedigree is a fact? That's a new one.

I've never seen someone so intent on arguing about a horse who I think has a chance to fill out a trifecta. We'll see what happens Saturday. But remember, you won't be able to make these posts disappear like the other one. So get all of the modifying out now.


Wow.. now you think he can fill out a trifecta? Quite a switch from 20 minutes ago when you said

I really don't see a scenario where Yawanna Twist is in the top 5.

[Sekrah]

I'm not throwing him out based on pedigree. I just don't think he's very good. If this were the Big Apple Triple I'd be all over him.


You don't think he's very good but you think 8-1-2-2 Aikenite is? The same Aikenite whose lost his two 1 1/8 mile races by almost 22 lengths?

[Dahoss9698]

Market Mover. Thank you. Some people would rather just make up the facts as they go along than take the time to invesitgate the facts.

Yawanna Twist has just as much, if not more stamina pedigree in his bloodlines than this years Derby winner (who I backed with extreme enthusiasm two weeks ago).

Yawanna Twist has a pair of 2nds in two graded stakes two-turn races and I gotta listen to this pedigree crap from someone pushing a horse who lost his two races at 1 1/8 mile by a combined 21 3/4 lengths.

Am I being punked right now? I like Aikenite to fill out the exotics. I think Super Saver is going to win and I'll be happy with any combonation of Schoolyard Dreams, First Dude or Aikenite underneath.

We get it, you picked a winner in the Derby. Congrats. Judging by the way you need to keep bringing up, it must have been a surprise to even you.

Let's take a deeper look at the horse YOU are pushing. Beaten a little over a length by Awesome Act in the Gotham. Awesome Act went on to get beat by Eskendereya by nearly 10 (same as Aikenite) and then he was 19th in the Derby beaten 60. Wow.

He was second to American Lion by nearly 3 lengths, while losing ground in the stretch (shocking) in Illinois. American Lion went on to finish 11th in the Kentucky Derby.

Not exactly a ringing endorsement.

[Dahoss9698]

Wow.. now you think he can fill out a trifecta? Quite a switch from 20 minutes ago when you said

I was talking about Aikenite rounding out the tri. Not Yawanna Twist.

[Dahoss9698]

You don't think he's very good but you think 8-1-2-2 Aikenite is? The same Aikenite whose lost his two 1 1/8 mile races by almost 22 lengths?

No, I don't think Aikenite is very good. Where have I said he is?

I'm going to throw out the Bluegrass, it's possible he didn't handle the poly that day. Yes, he was soundly beaten by Esky in Florida. So was everyone else that day and a few weeks later in NY.

[Sekrah]

Am I being punked right now? I like Aikenite to fill out the exotics. I think Super Saver is going to win and I'll be happy with any combonation of Schoolyard Dreams, First Dude or Aikenite underneath.

We get it, you picked a winner in the Derby. Congrats. Judging by the way you need to keep bringing up, it must have been a surprise to even you.

Let's take a deeper look at the horse YOU are pushing. Beaten a little over a length by Awesome Act in the Gotham. Awesome Act went on to get beat by Eskendereya by nearly 10 (same as Aikenite) and then he was 19th in the Derby beaten 60. Wow.

He was second to American Lion by nearly 3 lengths, while losing ground in the stretch (shocking) in Illinois. American Lion went on to finish 11th in the Kentucky Derby.

Not exactly a ringing endorsement.

#1. If that race is 1 1/8th, Yawanna Twist wins the Gotham. Awesome Act was spent for the Wood and not even you are stupid enough to not know about his trouble at the start. Jeremy Noseda even said before the race he thought he was toasted by the Gotham.

#2. It's bad enough he had a 4w/5w trip in the Derby but American Lion is also a massive plodder. A horse like that will never have success over muddy/sloppy tracks. He sunk like lead in water with every step.


Like I said, be my guest and waste your money using Aikenite in your exotics. I'm not stopping you. Just stick with the facts and don't make up bullspit out of thin-air about other peoples picks.

I asked you why you liked Aikenite and you go into ripping Yawanna Twist about his pedigree (which he clearly isn't lacking, but Aikenite is), then you claim you aren't tossing him because his pedigree, but because you don't think he's any good, when he's clearly accomplished more in 4 races than what Aikenite has in 8.

Aikenite got a perfect pace setup in the Derby Trial, and he still couldn't win.. AT A MILE! The horse is a listed stakes stiff. Nothing more.


Bet your nag. Stick with the facts though. Thanks.

[Dahoss9698]

#1. If that race is 1 1/8th, Yawanna Twist wins the Gotham. Awesome Act was spent for the Wood and not even you are stupid enough to not know about his trouble at the start. Jeremy Noseda even said before the race he thought he was toasted by the Gotham.

#2. It's bad enough he had a 4w/5w trip in the Derby but American Lion is also a massive plodder. A horse like that will never have success over muddy/sloppy tracks. He sunk like lead in water with every step.


Like I said, be my guest and waste your money using Aikenite in your exotics. I'm not stopping you. Just stick with the facts and don't make up bullspit out of thin-air about other peoples picks.

I asked you why you liked Aikenite and you go into ripping Yawanna Twist about his pedigree (which he clearly isn't lacking, but Aikenite is), then you claim you aren't tossing him because his pedigree, but because you don't think he's any good, when he's clearly accomplished more in 4 races than what Aikenite has in 8.

Aikenite got a perfect pace setup in the Derby Trial, and he still couldn't win.. AT A MILE! The horse is a listed stakes stiff. Nothing more.


Bet your nag. Stick with the facts though. Thanks.

Your idea of a fact is whatever your opinion is. It doesn't work that way. Just like the whole "if the Gotham was" doesn't work either.

You sound like a newbie, so I'm glad you are interested in racing. We need all of the new blood in this sport we can get.

I have no desire to spend any more time discussing a race I have little interest in. I'll be watching because I'd like to see Super Saver have a chance for a triple crown and I want a little action in the race. But I'll be betting more on a claiming race at Belmont tomorrow than in the Preakness.

Good luck with your Preakness bets.

[Sekrah]

Yea.. I'm a newbie. Been cashing in Triple Crown races since 1997. I've had more signers in the past 2 years than you've had years of life. I can guarantee you that.

[Robert Goren]

I am also waiting to see what Pace Advantage says. He said my Derby horse didn't have a chance. He was right, she ran like she didn't have chance. I try learn to learn my mistakes and not listening to the man is one that I will not repeat.

[Market Mover]

Market Mover. Thank you. Some people would rather just make up the facts as they go along than take the time to invesitgate the facts.

Yawanna Twist has just as much, if not more stamina pedigree in his bloodlines than this years Derby winner (who I backed with extreme enthusiasm two weeks ago).

Yawanna Twist has a pair of 2nds in two graded stakes two-turn races and I gotta listen to this pedigree crap from someone pushing a horse who lost his two races at 1 1/8 mile by a combined 21 3/4 lengths.

You are correct. Yawanna Twist has more stamina in the bloodlines than a lot of these. It's pretty hard to find a horse who combines two Preakness runnerups on both sides of the pedigree..

[Dahoss9698]

Yea.. I'm a newbie. Been cashing in Triple Crown races since 1997. I've had more signers in the past 2 years than you've had years of life. I can guarantee you that.

Well I've been cashing in TC races since 1995. I'm better.

[Market Mover]

Your idea of a fact is whatever your opinion is. It doesn't work that way. Just like the whole "if the Gotham was" doesn't work either.

You sound like a newbie, so I'm glad you are interested in racing. We need all of the new blood in this sport we can get.

I have no desire to spend any more time discussing a race I have little interest in. I'll be watching because I'd like to see Super Saver have a chance for a triple crown and I want a little action in the race. But I'll be betting more on a claiming race at Belmont tomorrow than in the Preakness.

Good luck with your Preakness bets.


Super Saver won't win the Crown. And you can bet on THAT if anything..you'd get better odds playing against him!

For all the Aikenite lovers, consider this:

Cot Campbell has been in the game a long time. But 225K spent for a Yes It's True trying to negotiate the classic distances? Come on Cot, we can do better than that. I know it's the anniversary of Summer Squall, but please, do we have to enter this year? This horse has a better shot in the Tesio than he does in the Preakness...

Aikenite's damside might at first glance seem enticing, with Secretariat on the bottom. But consider the mare Silver Clover, who hasn't thrown much of anything that could stay sound enough to run a distance. I know the Saint Ballado should infuse a little stamina, but that Silverado won but $900 on the track and Aikenite is her second foal (the first by Northern Afleet went 2 for 27!)

Come on Cot, was this a good purchase for the Dogwood partners? I know Yes Its Trues are selling, but i think Cot got sold a lemon on this one...would someone just tell them to think PA Derby and be done with it? Today's rail draw just about seals it..

Yes, Yawanna Twist will finish ahead of Aikenite in Saturday's big race. I don't know who will finish in front of these two, but play it that way and eliminate at least some boxing in those exotics!

[Market Mover]

I don't think Aikenite has any chance to win, but I think he can be a distant 2nd or 3rd. At least he has been able to make up ground late in some of his races.

Have you looked at Yawanna Twist's pedigree? Not exactly screaming distance.

There is a pretty good run to the turn, so I don't see how First Dude's post will be a problem. I thought his Florida Derby was a better effort than it looks on paper. He was close to a quick pace that collapsed and he had a good deal of trouble coming into the stretch. I just think he might be sitting on a good effort.

I think a dry track will expose Paddy O Prado as being a horse that prefers turf/synth. Pleasant prince is a little interesting, but I don't think he is heading in a good direction.


First Dude is a better play on pedigree thank Aikenite. We all know Stephen Got Even got I Want Revenge and Stevie Wonderboy and even Don't Get Mad (4th in the big one after winning Derby Trial)...I think the Stephen Got Even's can bounce back quickly and show good form early in career.

And we all know Smart Strike bottomside can help (a la Mine That Bird)..

First Dude was a half length last year and then a head this year behind Fly Down, who ran away with the Dwyer last week as and up-and-comer type and may be gearing for the Belmont for Zito. Ramon knows how to ride this circuit and you better be darn sure if he gets a clear trip (which you'd imagine he'd stay in the clear from the 11 post if Ramon doesn't get him pinned down) that left arm will be swinging high again...just hope you're not to his outside or else we'll have another Afleet Alex takeout there a la Scrappy T.!
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KfFzODoD7YY

[Dahoss9698]

Just when I think I'm out....

He got sold a lemon? They paid $225,000 for the horse and he has earned over $300,000 by May of his 3 year old year. The horse has taken them to the Breeders Cup and now they will be running in a triple crown race. Yeah, some lemon.

I don't know how this good be looked at as anything but a good purchase.

[Dahoss9698]

First Dude is a better play on pedigree thank Aikenite. We all know Stephen Got Even got I Want Revenge and Stevie Wonderboy and even Don't Get Mad (4th in the big one after winning Derby Trial)...I think the Stephen Got Even's can bounce back quickly and show good form early in career.

And we all know Smart Strike bottomside can help (a la Mine That Bird)..

First Dude was a half length last year and then a head this year behind Fly Down, who ran away with the Dwyer last week as and up-and-comer type and may be gearing for the Belmont for Zito. Ramon knows how to ride this circuit and you better be darn sure if he gets a clear trip (which you'd imagine he'd stay in the clear from the 11 post if Ramon doesn't get him pinned down) that left arm will be swinging high again...just hope you're not to his outside or else we'll have another Afleet Alex takeout there a la Scrappy T.!
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KfFzODoD7YY

I love lectures about pedigree. Especially about horses that have run multiple times. I think by now if you don't have a gauge on if a horse will get a distance or not, you never will.

[phatbastard]

super as of now...can't figure the order yet...


top 5

caracortado

jackson bend

dublin

lookin'at lucky

and probably some Super Saver some how

thinking it will be Jackson Bend they must catch coming outta turn, Calvin will most likely move too soon as he has b4... Dublin has terrible post, and being wide on that last turn is tough, but thinking this horse has ability enough to be there if GG can save ground somehow....Caracortado is interesting and was quite sharp earlier

Lookinat lucky has a penchant for troubled trips, mebbe Garcia can steer him better..probably my key, but need more time to see whats up

[JPinMaryland]

It's funny how pedigree proponents dont seem to know much about genetics.

[Market Mover]

Just when I think I'm out....

He got sold a lemon? They paid $225,000 for the horse and he has earned over $300,000 by May of his 3 year old year. The horse has taken them to the Breeders Cup and now they will be running in a triple crown race. Yeah, some lemon.

I don't know how this good be looked at as anything but a good purchase.


Let's factor in how much it cost to raise your 3 yr old in that time span, add in all the training costs and entry fees, and see if 300k sounds like still a very good number...from a 225k purchase price...

[Market Mover]

It's funny how pedigree proponents dont seem to know much about genetics.


And it's still funny how some of us still can believe Yes It's True sons can deliver at a mile and 3/16ths....you can use pedigree AND genetics and still come up short:)

[redshift1]

This is somewhat like the Derby , in that none of the entrants would be a surprise. If the Derby never happened then Lookin At Lucky would be an obvious favorite and might be a good bet unless he has another Lebron James moment.

[Sericm]

Looking At Lucky will hands down win the Preakness if the track comes up fast.
He made up 15 lengths after that horrendous bumping in the Kentucky Derby.

Martin Garcia has been a go to rider for Baffert ever since the beginning of the year.

Calvin Borel on Super Saver won't even hit the board. Calvin won't get his rail skimming muddy ride in the Preakness.

1. Lookin At Lucky
2. Paddy O'Prado
3. Jackson Bend

Sericm:eek:

[SMOO]

Well I've been cashing in TC races since 1995. I'm better.
Well I've been passing out at TC races since 1985. I'm drunker.

[betchatoo]

I've been cashing in on TC races since 1968. I'm older.

[newtothegame]

Ive cashed ONE TC ticket in my life.......:lol:

thats got to count for something lol

[GaryG]

You don't have to be in this game for very long to acquire the Messiah Complex.....

[theveep]

Using :8: :6: :3: :7: in all scenarios.

[Lon Chaney]

Heading down to FL tonight so this will be my official pick post.

$50 WPS :2:

$2 Exacta :2: :7: :8: / :2: :7: :8: :4: :10:

$2EB :2: :4:

Total: $178

Good Luck Ladies and Gentlemen!

[Maverick58034]

I agree with one of the earlier posters that Jackson Bend could put in a big one. I'll probably give him some action if the price is right.

[netbet]

Just some early thoughts.

I don't like Dublin and will throw him out.
Can't see Northern Giant possibly making an impact.
Don't like Garcia on Luckin At Lucky but I understand the switch.

My potential price play for exotics...Pleasant Prince but not sure where Leparoux will have this one placed in the race.

[Dahoss9698]

Let's factor in how much it cost to raise your 3 yr old in that time span, add in all the training costs and entry fees, and see if 300k sounds like still a very good number...from a 225k purchase price...

So he'll never earn another cent? You said Cot got sold a lemon. Not me. You said that. Even if you add in training costs, entry fees, etc he did not get sold a lemon. Do lemons earn back more than their purchase price in less than a year of racing?

And it's still funny how some of us still can believe Yes It's True sons can deliver at a mile and 3/16ths....you can use pedigree AND genetics and still come up short:)

Sometimes I really wonder if people actually read other people's posts. Deliver at 1 3/16th's? I think the horse can round out the tri. Nothing more, nothing less. As a closer, at least you know he'll be making a move. I'm thinking he can suck up for 3rd. He completed the tri in the Hopeful last year and the FOY this year. Even though he was beaten many lengths, he rounded out the exotics. Which is all I'm looking for.

[Dahoss9698]

Well I've been passing out at TC races since 1985. I'm drunker.

Thank you for actually having a sense of humor. Rare thing here.

[Sekrah]

Aikenite, who has lost ground in the stretch to every horse in every 1 1/8 mile race he's run in, is going to close hard into a paceless race and hit the board Saturday.

Yea.. I heard it all now,

[Sekrah]

Looking At Lucky will hands down win the Preakness if the track comes up fast.
He made up 15 lengths after that horrendous bumping in the Kentucky Derby.

Martin Garcia has been a go to rider for Baffert ever since the beginning of the year.


Eh? Now this entire post was just filled with nonsense. Every horse in the half back of the pack "made up" 10+ lengths in the Derby as Conveyance and Sidney's Candy simultaneously stopped.

You could qualify the other 18 horses who ran in the Derby.

Guess what horse didn't stop in the Derby?



Calvin Borel on Super Saver won't even hit the board. Calvin won't get his rail skimming muddy ride in the Preakness.



Now, here's a nice troll attempt. If Super Saver eats a bad breakfast, stumbles out of the gate, gets a bad trip, or absolutely hates the surface, he might not hit the board. Otherwise, I have news for you. He's winning the race.

The horse won the Derby,. Yours didn't! Get over it. You sound like those guys who refused to bet Mine That Bird in the Preakness because you thought it was the slop, calvin, a fluke, etc, etc.. Yea he went out and beat all the 3-year old colt challengers that got sent at him in the Preakness.

Out of the last 13 Derby runners, 10 have finished either 1st or 2nd in the Preakness. Only Barbaro, Giacomo (3rd) and Monarchos missed.

[Dahoss9698]

Aikenite, who has lost ground in the stretch to every horse in every 1 1/8 mile race he's run in, is going to close hard into a paceless race and hit the board Saturday.

Yea.. I heard it all now,

Won't the pace hurt Pleasant Prince also, who ironically was beaten 6 lengths by Aikenite last time? Weird because Aikenite beat him in the 9 furlong FOY also. Hmmmm....

[Sekrah]

Won't the pace hurt Pleasant Prince also, who ironically was beaten 6 lengths by Aikenite last time? Weird because Aikenite also beat him in the 9 furlong FOY also. Hmmmm....

Pleasant Prince is a vastly superior animal to Aikenite. I promise you this.

First, LeParoux shut PP down when it was clear he wasn't going to win the race to get enough earnings. He has said as much.

Pleasant Prince has proven himself at a 1 1/8 in the Florida Derby. He was tighter to that hot pace than Ice Box won and he woulda been in the Ky Derby, not Ice Box if he were to have won that head-bob.

Hated the Poly at Keeneland. Ward said it got gooey and sticky late in afternoon and he didn't take to it.

The Fountain of Youth was a ridiculously slow paced race where no closer was coming back from the pack there. Nobody did any running in that race, and Pleasant Prince lost 5 3/4 lengths to Eskendereya from the 2nd call to the finish. The least of anybody else in the race.


Here's the problem for you and your baseless argument Pleasant Prince HAS a race. If he runs his Fla Derby race he hits the board. He has shown the ability right there to run solid fractions and still have kick left in the stretch of a 1 1/8 race. Aikenite HAS NO race. Aikenite isn't hitting the board with any of his previous 8 efforts. He's not even hitting the Superfecta.


Aikenite and Northern Giant are the two slugs, and they have no business in this race. But I am happy they will be taking money from clueless handicappers who will throw them in there exotics and boost my payout.

[Dahoss9698]

So Mr Fact Man wants to ignore facts. How convenient.

They have been in the same gate 3 times. Aikenite has beaten him 2 out of 3 times. That is a fact. I'm not sure how the horse that has been defeated 2 out of 3 times is vastly superior. Frankly, they both aren't much. I don't think there is a whole lot separating them.

This entire thing has been quite amusing. You exhibit all of the characteristics of a losing horseplayer. You assume because a horse closed at 1 1/16th, that if the race was 1 3/16th, he would have won....WRONG. You seemingly believe everything any trainer or jockey says.....WRONG.

I am thankful your money is in the same pools that mine is in.

[Sekrah]

You really have no idea how utter clueless you really are about this.

I guess this discussion is over. You hate money. I get it. Bye.

[Lon Chaney]

Aikenite and Northern Giant are the two slugs, and they have no business in this race. But I am happy they will be taking money from clueless handicappers who will throw them in there exotics and boost my payout.


I'm putting him in my exacta ONLY because I always play the :2: :4: exacta box. I know its not real handicapping, but it's something I've been doing for the last 12-15 years and I'm not going to stop now.

Plus, it won me some money in the Derby this year :)

[Dahoss9698]

You really have no idea how utter clueless you really are about this.

I guess this discussion is over. You hate money. I get it. Bye.

I find it funny that everytime I bring facts into the discussion you have nothing. Very telling actually.

[Sekrah]

I'm putting him in my exacta ONLY because I always play the :2: :4: exacta box. I know its not real handicapping, but it's something I've been doing for the last 12-15 years and I'm not going to stop now.

Plus, it won me some money in the Derby this year :)


My old man plays 4-2-1, my sisters b-day.. He was over the moon when I told him those were my top 3 in the Derby.

[Lon Chaney]

My old man plays 4-2-1, my sisters b-day.. He was over the moon when I told him those were my top 3 in the Derby.

Its funny how that works, isn't it.

I mean, I handicap race cards and most times come out with a negative ROI. Then, for fun, I play the :2: :4: EB for the entire card and sometimes come out on top. Not, always, but sometimes.

[PhantomOnTour]

Whoa man, this thread has gotten a bit hot. Bottom line for me is that I agree with a previous poster who says Super Saver will win. He should improve on the 104 Beyer he got in the Derby and make easy work of this field. As for the lower exotic slots....that depends on whether you think SS will bury all the E/P types and open it up for some closers, or you think they will go easy enough up front for those guys to hold their positions.

I think Calvin pulls away in the lane.
Maybe play a Super-All-Lucky tri or a Super-Lucky-All tri....something of that nature. If SS wins like I expect, the exacta won't pay too much, but tri's and supers are always good. Just my opinion, and for what it's worth, I prefer Pleasant Prince to the other closers. His 3 races at 1m1/8 on dirt are the best of his life, and he will come close to replicating those conditions on Sat.

[johnhannibalsmith]

After the first four pages of this thread, I was thoroughly convinced that the Preakness isn't even worth watching. But now, I can hardly wait to see who outruns who... Aikenite or Pleasant Prince...

[Market Mover]

Whoa man, this thread has gotten a bit hot. Bottom line for me is that I agree with a previous poster who says Super Saver will win. He should improve on the 104 Beyer he got in the Derby and make easy work of this field. As for the lower exotic slots....that depends on whether you think SS will bury all the E/P types and open it up for some closers, or you think they will go easy enough up front for those guys to hold their positions.

I think Calvin pulls away in the lane.
Maybe play a Super-All-Lucky tri or a Super-Lucky-All tri....something of that nature. If SS wins like I expect, the exacta won't pay too much, but tri's and supers are always good. Just my opinion, and for what it's worth, I prefer Pleasant Prince to the other closers. His 3 races at 1m1/8 on dirt are the best of his life, and he will come close to replicating those conditions on Sat.


The problem is...everyone and their mother will be playing the Super Saver-Lucky-all tri...if you think it's going to finish this chalky way...why play the race at all??

It's time to establish some opinions, some solid opinions, even if it means selecting Yawanna Twist for 3rd...or Aikenite for 3rd (like some posters are believing is the "value" play..lol)...or even Pleasant Prince for 3rd. Because there has to be a stronger opinion to have one horse for 3rd than another, if you feel Super and Lucky are solid for 1st and 2nd (like the rest of the nation..)...

This parimutuel game is about leveraging opinions to maximize profitable outcomes. What is accomplished by going Super-Lucky-all? (other than stating the obvious)...

[Market Mover]

After the first four pages of this thread, I was thoroughly convinced that the Preakness isn't even worth watching. But now, I can hardly wait to see who outruns who... Aikenite or Pleasant Prince...


Now you're talking...now THAT'S a horse race...

[Market Mover]

So he'll never earn another cent? You said Cot got sold a lemon. Not me. You said that. Even if you add in training costs, entry fees, etc he did not get sold a lemon. Do lemons earn back more than their purchase price in less than a year of racing?



Sometimes I really wonder if people actually read other people's posts. Deliver at 1 3/16th's? I think the horse can round out the tri. Nothing more, nothing less. As a closer, at least you know he'll be making a move. I'm thinking he can suck up for 3rd. He completed the tri in the Hopeful last year and the FOY this year. Even though he was beaten many lengths, he rounded out the exotics. Which is all I'm looking for.

Aikenite is the first throwout from the rail. He will drop out, look to make that one run with Javier. In a seemingly paceless race, this is the last type of horse you want to leverage in the exotics...That's if he doesn't get tired in deep stretch...

The Hopeful was a very different race from a pace standpoint. He was setup to run them down after a torrid :44 half, and still hung in deep stretch...

He couldn't catch Jackson Bend (who will be more forwardly placed this time around) after Esky blew them both away. Aikenite's distance limitations will be fully exposed after this Preakness, after which Cot might be better aiming this horse for distances up to a mile, and maybe switching to turf given the pedigree...

[Smarty Cide]

outside of the obvious (super saver and lucky) Schoolyard Dreams is the play here. Hasnt he finished ahead of SS in the past? I really think this horse is sitting on a big one

[Market Mover]

I agree with one of the earlier posters that Jackson Bend could put in a big one. I'll probably give him some action if the price is right.


Smith has to keep him closer. This gutsy little guy likes to stay in contention early. Does anyone know how similar that Calder track might be to Pimlico? How do Calder shippers fare in Baltimore?

[PhantomOnTour]

The problem is...everyone and their mother will be playing the Super Saver-Lucky-all tri...if you think it's going to finish this chalky way...why play the race at all??

It's time to establish some opinions, some solid opinions, even if it means selecting Yawanna Twist for 3rd...or Aikenite for 3rd (like some posters are believing is the "value" play..lol)...or even Pleasant Prince for 3rd. Because there has to be a stronger opinion to have one horse for 3rd than another, if you feel Super and Lucky are solid for 1st and 2nd (like the rest of the nation..)...

This parimutuel game is about leveraging opinions to maximize profitable outcomes. What is accomplished by going Super-Lucky-all? (other than stating the obvious)...
I understand your point, but with pools this large the tri will pay just fine if it comes Super Saver-anyone-anyone. I find races with a dominant winner to be a bit chaotic when it comes to the lower exotic slots, and I think we will have a dominant winner in the Preakness. Who knows what's going through the minds of a soundly defeated horse and jockey (Kent D anyone?). Will they persevere?
By my humble numbers, Super Saver will simply walk away from this field when Calvin gets into him...the rest is a big question mark. Dublin, Yawanna, Lucky and Schoolyard will get the jump on Aikenite (whom I'm not fond of in this spot) and Pleasant Prince. Maybe PP can crack the top three, however he, Aikenite and Paddy are all An1x eligible which is a huge knock in my book. This is a Gr1 and they will need others to falter in order to get a piece. Final decisions come Sat when I know the track condition....lively discussion though, good readin'.

[GaryG]

outside of the obvious (super saver and lucky) Schoolyard Dreams is the play here. Hasnt he finished ahead of SS in the past? I really think this horse is sitting on a big oneYes, a big race in the TBD but he got a perfect trip in the Wood and finished behind Jackson Bend and Awesome Act. Can he bounce back now that he is fresh? I think he might.

[hazzardm]

Of the fresh horses, I like First Dude.

[hazzardm]

Yea.. I'm a newbie. Been cashing in Triple Crown races since 1997. I've had more signers in the past 2 years than you've had years of life. I can guarantee you that.

:lol: :lol: :lol:

Me thinks you love the mirror

[SMOO]

Of the fresh horses, I like First Dude.

If he gets a clean trip for a change he should be near the front of a modest pace.

[GaryG]

If he gets a clean trip for a change he should be near the front of a modest pace.I liked him a lot until the draw. He could easily get hung out to dry. Maybe he will get lucky.

[precocity]

dublin i tell ya? :12: :ThmbUp:

[precocity]

You don't have to be in this game for very long to acquire the Messiah Complex.....
:lol: :lol:

[fmhealth]

Been playing the TC races since 1959. One winner. PASS CATCHER in the Belmont with Mousey Blum. So with this fact as a backdrop, my Ex, Tri & Super boxes will be....

7-8-9-11

Good racing!!!

[bisket]

the only way to make money on this race is try to get your tri ticket narrowed to 1-3 tickets and double the amount of dollars on the ticket. for the exacta 20$ straight lucky than super

[PaceAdvantage]

Yea.. I'm a newbie. Been cashing in Triple Crown races since 1997. I've had more signers in the past 2 years than you've had years of life. I can guarantee you that.It's lines like this that keep me getting up in the morning and logging into this website... :lol:

[Trotman]

Well everyone in to the pool. In the last 25 years only Louis Quatorze in 96 and Rachel last year won the Preakness in wire-to-wire fashion,that being said a stalking type is what I think will get you into the winners circle. Most would say that Pimlico has an inside bias yet in the last 49 years only Tabasco Cat won from the rail, so for Aikenite for me is a toss. IMO there is 3 groups running.
In the first group is Yawanna Twist, Paddy O' Prado, and Super Saver and the second group is Schoolyard Dreams and Lookin At Lucky. The third group will be the also rans.
They way I look at this race is use the first group for the exotics and bet Yawanna Twist across. Good Luck to all.

[bisket]

Well everyone in to the pool. In the last 25 years only Louis Quatorze in 96 and Rachel last year won the Preakness in wire-to-wire fashion,that being said a stalking type is what I think will get you into the winners circle. Most would say that Pimlico has an inside bias yet in the last 49 years only Tabasco Cat won from the rail, so for Aikenite for me is a toss. IMO there is 3 groups running.
In the first group is Yawanna Twist, Paddy O' Prado, and Super Saver and the second group is Schoolyard Dreams and Lookin At Lucky. The third group will be the also rans.
They way I look at this race is use the first group for the exotics and bet Yawanna Twist across. Good Luck to all.
the best ground to run over at pimlico is the 3 and 4 path. the rail is usually dead. especially after having some rain

[Dahoss9698]

Aikenite is the first throwout from the rail. He will drop out, look to make that one run with Javier. In a seemingly paceless race, this is the last type of horse you want to leverage in the exotics...That's if he doesn't get tired in deep stretch...

The Hopeful was a very different race from a pace standpoint. He was setup to run them down after a torrid :44 half, and still hung in deep stretch...

He couldn't catch Jackson Bend (who will be more forwardly placed this time around) after Esky blew them both away. Aikenite's distance limitations will be fully exposed after this Preakness, after which Cot might be better aiming this horse for distances up to a mile, and maybe switching to turf given the pedigree...

It was a very good idea to totally ignore the lemon stuff this time around.

I doubt he's going to totally drop out. He was far back in both the Hopeful and Derby Trial because the pace was quick. I think he'll be sitting midpack.

Either way, this entire thread has been pretty funny. I learned my lesson to never mention I think a longshot can clunk up for 3rd in a race. The Preakness will probably represent about 2% of my wagering bankroll for the weekend. But because I mentioned a longshot, I got a lesson in betting and pedigree from you. And who knows what from the guy that has had more signers than I am years old and deletes posts when he is wrong.

[DRIVEWAY]

the best ground to run over at pimlico is the 3 and 4 path. the rail is usually dead. especially after having some rain

Isn't the track a little juiced up on Preakness day?

[W2G]

I'm becoming more convinced that Zito/Smith plan to send Jackson Bend. Make of that what you will but compared to being caked in mud amidst a herd of rivals in the Derby and I think JB is going to relish a trip on or just off the pace. Also feel that Pleasant Prince will shine on a fast dirt track and the added distance.

[Sekrah]

Zippy Chippy has as much chance to hit the board as Aikenite.

[WinterTriangle]

I learned my lesson to never mention I think a longshot can clunk up for 3rd in a race.

Your longshot has just as much chance as anyone else's longshot. He used to be one of my favorite runners before this TC stuff.

As for learning a lesson, you should know by now that even using a pronoun wrong here will turn into a 3 day argument..... :lol:

I've got 5 horses finalized, don't know the order yet, but will put in a trifecta. Will post 'em after I see the post parade.

I will hint and say that yawanna twist, aikenite, caracortado and northern giant are definite tosses for me. My 5 horses are among the rest of the field.:)

[Market Mover]

It was a very good idea to totally ignore the lemon stuff this time around.

I doubt he's going to totally drop out. He was far back in both the Hopeful and Derby Trial because the pace was quick. I think he'll be sitting midpack.

Either way, this entire thread has been pretty funny. I learned my lesson to never mention I think a longshot can clunk up for 3rd in a race. The Preakness will probably represent about 2% of my wagering bankroll for the weekend. But because I mentioned a longshot, I got a lesson in betting and pedigree from you. And who knows what from the guy that has had more signers than I am years old and deletes posts when he is wrong.


Whoa whoa, hold up, no one said anything about forgetting the lemon part. Let me just say it again...Cot Campbell got a lemon in Aikenite...and the entire Dogwood crew better reconsider next time they pay that much for a Yes Its True trying to go a classic distance the 3rd Saturday in April.

Noble's Promise would have had a better shot in this race...and he's a Cuvee!

[Dahoss9698]

Whoa whoa, hold up, no one said anything about forgetting the lemon part. Let me just say it again...Cot Campbell got a lemon in Aikenite...and the entire Dogwood crew better reconsider next time they pay that much for a Yes Its True trying to go a classic distance the 3rd Saturday in April.

Noble's Promise would have had a better shot in this race...and he's a Cuvee!

Help me understand how a horse that has earned more than he cost is a lemon. Even when you factor in training expenses and entry fees he has to be pretty close to even on the horse and it's May of his 3 year old year.

The "lemon" has taken the syndication to all of the premier tracks in the country. He broke his maiden at the meet everyone looks to for juveniles. He got blacktype in the Hopeful. Just missed in a grade 1 at Keeneland (going 2 turns). Did not embarass himself in the Breeders Cup, while allowing the syndication to be at the Breeders Cup. They were on the board in the Fountain of Youth and finished a fast closing second in the Derby Trial.

Aside from your thoughts making no sense, they show a complete lack of understanding of what syndications like Dogwood are trying to do. Having horses in the biggest races is like free advertising. The fact that he has already earned more than he cost is an added bonus.

I'm just trying to figure out what makes him a lemon. So far the only thing you have come up with is your opinion that he isn't bred to be a router. Horses outrun their pedigree all the time. Down the road he probably will be more effective as a closing sprinter. But he's a half length away from being a grade 1 winning router.

The Green Monkey was a lemon. Aikenite is not.

[picojim]

1. Lookin at Lucky
2. Aikenite
3. Paddy O'Prado

ice cold trifecta :)

[Hoofless_Wonder]

Awful lot of love for # 7, when he gets a negative jockey switch and was on the fence for running in the race. Gotta toss him as "no value".

The # 4 horse's 3 furlong work the other day is the tell that Lukas plans for him to be the rabbit for # 12. Whether that plan works out is another thing, but I see enough pace here to allow for some closers to get there. Super ticket:

:8: - :12:
:8: - :10: - :12:
:3: - :5: - :8: - :10: - :12:
:3: - :5: - :6: - :10: - :11:

Probably not the smartest way to invest $44, but gotta take a stand and hope for the best.

[Sekrah]

Northern Giant a rabbit?

This horse has led at the first call of 1 race of 9. I'd be shocked if he were even capable of running faster than 47 seconds if he tried. The horse is pure 100% stamina bred.

Super Saver can gallop in :47. Anyone leaving him off the top of their tickets is just a very poor handicapper.

[lamboguy]

1. Aikenite 20-1
2. Schoolyard 10-1
3. Pleasant Prince 20-1
4. Northern Giant 30-1
5. Yawanna Twist 30-1
6. Jackson Bend 12-1
7. Lookin At Lucky 3-1
8. Super Saver 5-2
9. Caracortado 10-1
10. Paddy O' Prado 9-2
11. First Dude 20-1
12. Dublin 10-1


Looking at those odds the Preakness is gonna be tough to bet. The past couple years iv done really well with the preakness.

last year i had rachel and all and also put 200 on musket man to show. so i did well there.

the year before i just bet heavy on big brown and all. that did well. actually that whole year i bet big brown heavy every race and did great. because of that he is my favorite horse of all time.

the year before that i hit the win bet, the exacta, and the tri.


but this year i think its so hard to try to put something together. probably going to put a pretty good size bet on schoolyard dreams to show. but i have no clue how else to bet it based on those yards.

how u guys gonna bet it?your name imply's that you are going to do very well at betting on the preakness. i chose to sit this one out along with all the other races that come to us via tracknet

[CBedo]

After the Derby I was hoping to bet against Super Saver because he seemingly had everything go right in the Derby.My Preakness strategy will more than likely be to bbq some steaks and watch the race with family without making anything but a token action wager. My best triple crown scores are always in the Belmont after a colt has won the first two legs of the triple crown, so I'll be rooting for SS to put out a big effort, so I can play against him in the Belmont!

[theguarantee]

Anyone like anything for the Black Eyed Susan or is Borel's horse just way too good? I concluded that Borel's horse was way too good, but was hoping to play the double for shits and giggles. Just want to try and lock in some value on Dublin, for better or, more likely, worse.

[PhantomOnTour]

I think Seeking The Title is worth a shot in the Susan, but Tidal Pool looks like the easy early leader and may not be caught.

[Dahoss9698]

Super Saver can gallop in :47. Anyone leaving him off the top of their tickets is just a very poor handicapper.

You are proving to be the gift that keeps on giving. Super Saver is definitely most likely. He'll be on top of my tickets.

But he certainly had everything go right in the Derby. He won on a track he prefers, in the mud which he prefers and recieved a perfect trip. Normally this is the kind of horse winning players would be all over trying to beat next time.

Unfortunately this race has come up very soft. But in the long run, it's best to try and beat horses who come out of such trips.

Look, you were touting the chances of War Echo and Just Jenda in the Apple Blossom. That's the definition of poor handicapping. We're all going to be wrong more than right. But there are times to try and beat the favorite and times to just sit and watch. I can't fault anyone trying to beat Super Saver.

[Stevie Belmont]

There are a lot of things to like about Super Saver. He is making his 4th start off his current form cycle, and even had a work since his Derby win. Not too much to indicate he won't run another big one.

Over the years the Preakness has been pretty formful. Thinking about putting Super Saver & Lookin at Lucky in both the win and place spot and wheel for 3rd. Probably would need something big for third—just hard for me to see anyone beating these 2 if they run their races.

It won't be a killing—but a profit is possible...

[WinterTriangle]

I think Seeking The Title is worth a shot in the Susan,

I'm gonna give Harissa or No Such Word a shot for the win over tidal pool.

[Charli125]

My Preakness strategy will more than likely be to bbq some steaks and watch the race with family without making anything but a token action wager.

You seriously think that bbq some steaks has a chance on Saturday?!? You're dreaming. Let me tell you a little bit about the pedigree here.

I'm going with bbq some ribs in a runaway!

[johnhannibalsmith]

... Anyone leaving him off the top of their tickets is just a very poor handicapper...

...or an astute bettor.

[Cardus]

About putting Super Saver and Lookin At Lucky 1-2 and wheeling or spreading in the triple:


In 1998, Real Quiet and Victory Gallop ran 1-2, and at 12-1 (or so) Classic Cat completed a $99 triple that I thought was generous.

[joanied]

For the BES I like it this way:
Tidal Pool
Acting Happy
Harissa
Diva Delite

Preakness:
Super saver
Lucky
Paddy
Jackson Bend

or:
Super Saver
Lucky
First Dude
Paddy

I am usually affraid of the new shooters, but not this year...just don't think any of them will hit the board.

Good luck to everyone with your wagers...and hope everyone has a fantastic Preak On weekend:jump: :jump: :jump:

[eastie]

rail is deadola at pimlico...:jump:

[Sekrah]

Super Saver was the best horse in the race, bar none. So sick of hearing this perfect trip garbage. He was up near a lightning fast pace on a super slow track where everybody else near it completely stopped. Out of the Top 8 at the 1st and 2nd call, only Noble's Promise was the only other one to stick around in the Top 8, and he was 7 lengths off the winner.

LAL, Ice Box, Paddy got perfect pace scenarios to run at from the back of the pack. Maybe they got jammed up. That's what happens the majority of the time when you try to close from the back of the pack in a 20-horse race.

If the pace comes up slow, Super Saver still wins the god damn race. Also as far as trouble goes It's really difficult forecasting a perfect trip for a horse whose jockey will go where no other jockey will go, huh?

Super Saver was a clearcut standout in the Derby and he's just as much, if not more a standout here.

I will then swoop in and make a massive score in the Belmont on an overbet Super Saver and Ice Box.

[RaceBookJoe]

Yea.. I'm a newbie. Been cashing in Triple Crown races since 1997. I've had more signers in the past 2 years than you've had years of life. I can guarantee you that.

Congrats if true, but you come across as arrogant and cocky. One day you just might need all that money you have made for shoulder surgery...from patting yourself on the back way too much. rbj

[Cardus]

Super Saver was the best horse in the race, bar none. So sick of hearing this perfect trip garbage. He was up near a lightning fast pace on a super slow track where everybody else near it completely stopped. Out of the Top 8 at the 1st and 2nd call, only Noble's Promise was the only other one to stick around in the Top 8, and he was 7 lengths off the winner.

LAL, Ice Box, Paddy got perfect pace scenarios to run at from the back of the pack. Maybe they got jammed up. That's what happens the majority of the time when you try to close from the back of the pack in a 20-horse race.

If the pace comes up slow, Super Saver still wins the god damn race. Also as far as trouble goes It's really difficult forecasting a perfect trip for a horse whose jockey will go where no other jockey will go, huh?

Super Saver was a clearcut standout in the Derby and he's just as much, if not more a standout here.

I will then swoop in and make a massive score in the Belmont on an overbet Super Saver and Ice Box.

What are going to do, parachute into the infield from the f---in' sky?

[Audioslavery]

Looking At Luck
Caracortado
Super Saver

I really like Caracortado here. He would've been a huge Derby contender, don't forget the change from synth to dirt too. That should factor in here as well.

[Market Mover]

Help me understand how a horse that has earned more than he cost is a lemon. Even when you factor in training expenses and entry fees he has to be pretty close to even on the horse and it's May of his 3 year old year.

The "lemon" has taken the syndication to all of the premier tracks in the country. He broke his maiden at the meet everyone looks to for juveniles. He got blacktype in the Hopeful. Just missed in a grade 1 at Keeneland (going 2 turns). Did not embarass himself in the Breeders Cup, while allowing the syndication to be at the Breeders Cup. They were on the board in the Fountain of Youth and finished a fast closing second in the Derby Trial.

Aside from your thoughts making no sense, they show a complete lack of understanding of what syndications like Dogwood are trying to do. Having horses in the biggest races is like free advertising. The fact that he has already earned more than he cost is an added bonus.

I'm just trying to figure out what makes him a lemon. So far the only thing you have come up with is your opinion that he isn't bred to be a router. Horses outrun their pedigree all the time. Down the road he probably will be more effective as a closing sprinter. But he's a half length away from being a grade 1 winning router.

The Green Monkey was a lemon. Aikenite is not.


Listen, I know you and Cot must be BFF but come on...can we just please give it up on Aikenite?
He's still eligible for NW1x...i know this year's field is not exactly jumping off the page..but would you try to understand that playing "closing sprinters" at a classic distance is probably not the best way to make money?

[DeanT]

My Preakness strategy will more than likely be to bbq some steaks and watch the race with family without making anything but a token action wager.

Damn poker players. All about edge :)

Ditto. I am planning to enjoy the race and not make any plays. Chalks look too logical for my playing style.

Enjoy the day Chris.

[bisket]

There are a lot of things to like about Super Saver. He is making his 4th start off his current form cycle, and even had a work since his Derby win. Not too much to indicate he won't run another big one.

Over the years the Preakness has been pretty formful. Thinking about putting Super Saver & Lookin at Lucky in both the win and place spot and wheel for 3rd. Probably would need something big for third—just hard for me to see anyone beating these 2 if they run their races.

It won't be a killing—but a profit is possible...
the basis for all my exotics will be super and luck 1 and 2

[Bobzilla]

Look out, the Zito barn is showing signs that it's warming up.

I'm well aware that Super Saver may very well win this race. In fact I think it's probably what will happen. However I don't think he's so imposing that he can't be defeated by another horse who may finally be ready to make a forward move. Considering the probable odds I think it's worth taking a shot against him.

As a 2yo Jackson Bend did earn a 100 BSF in the restricted In Reality at Crc, Thank You Philippe, who was 2nd, has run well since then it was 5 lengths back to Bim Bam and another 9 1/2 back to 4th. I didn't like JB's trip in the 1/23 Holy Bull, besides he might have needed that race. He was outside of a runaway winner in the FOY, the latter probably averaging about 10 performance points superiority over the entire class of 2010, never a good set up in a race and one that can be discouraging. Despite what I think was a slight developmental regression in the Wood Memorial on 4/3, he still held on for 2nd (I use PFs to quantify effort and gauge form cycle direction and not SFs). JB had never been in an event like the KD with that kind of pace and found himself much further back than he usually is. He did cut into the slowest part of the race from 11 lengths back outside of Paddy O' Prado then wasn't able to sustain his move after being vectored to the outside; I don't think being caught that far behind is what get's his "on" switch going anyways. I love second races off of what I sense is a developmental regression, especially as they get into the meatier part of a cycle. JB may very well be positioned to the inside of SS either on or slightly behind the pace, not nearly as daunting a task as being on the outside of Eskenderaya (sp?), especially considering how well E proved he could explode off of slow fractions. And with that 46 3/5 bullet breeze at CD on Monday, the quickest four furlong work of 69, he's probably on his toes and I doubt will be anything more than 3 lengths from the front. JB may actually be the front. It's now or never if JB is going to become a player in this year's crop of 3yos.

I'll play :6: to win for the potential forward move and play him in exactas with :7: ,:8: and :9: (Scarface Caratortado) on top. The #9 in case he freaks on the dirt and/or breaks loose. I'll use :1: , :3: , :5:, and :12: in the 3rd level of my trifectas along with the other four in the top two levels.

[Tread]

Zippy Chippy has as much chance to hit the board as Aikenite.

Although I tend to agree with you Sekrah, funny that Robes just picked him as his key on The Sheets website (not that that means anything, although he did have the BES winner today).

[NYPlayer]

I like Yawanna Twist the best. This horse was competitive and actually well bet in a couple of the Derby preps. Has had time to recover and could improve.

Aikenite is my second choice having had a good breakthrough race in the Trial.

Super Saver is my third choice. He'll have a good ride, and looks like he could still run competitively even though he's coming back in 2 weeks.

Northern Giant is interesting as a possible move up, but he must improve in order to be in the hunt.

School Yard Dreams is in the same category as 'Giant as a move up. He would be in my triple underneath if I play the triple.

[Dahoss9698]

Listen, I know you and Cot must be BFF but come on...can we just please give it up on Aikenite?
He's still eligible for NW1x...i know this year's field is not exactly jumping off the page..but would you try to understand that playing "closing sprinters" at a classic distance is probably not the best way to make money?

Just looking for a simple explanation about a stupid remark you made. You obviously can't provide it.

I don't know how many times I need to say it, but I think he has no chance to win the race. He's more likely to win than you are to be able to explain how he is a lemon though.

[Stevie Belmont]

The Preakness Stakes has been the most formful race of the Triple Crown Series to handicap in recent years. The last 20 Preakness Stakes have seen 17 winners who have emerged from the Kentucky Derby. The three horses who went on to win the Preakness who did not compete in the Kentucky Derby over that time period were Red Bullet, Bernardini and Rachel Alexandra. The Preakness will have five horses that ran in this year’s Kentucky Derby—Super Saver, Lookin At Lucky, Paddy O’Prado, Dublin and Jackson Bend. Super Saver will be gunning to win the 2nd leg of the Triple Crown when he enters the starting gate in the Preakness Stakes. The Kentucky Derby Champion will be making his 4th start in his current form cycle, and everything points to another strong effort in the Preakness Stakes. Super Saver has also worked since his Kentucky Derby win—a 3 furlong breeze in 36 on May 10. He is fit and ready—there is a lot to like.

Lookin At Lucky has been dogged by bad luck in his last two starts. In the Santa Anita Derby and Kentucky Derby he endured nightmare trips. In an attempt to change Lookin At Lucky’s luck, or lack there of, trainer Bob Baffert decided to make a jockey change. Martin Garcia will replace Garrett Gomez in the saddle for the Preakness Stakes. The 2-year-old champion from 2009 has yet to have a chance to uncork a solid rally with out getting into any trouble in the process. If Lookin At Lucky gets a clean trip, there is nothing to indicate he can’t show up on the scene with a big effort. In both the Santa Anita Derby and Kentucky Derby he was able to re-rally and finish well. He is the most likely horse to give Super Saver a legitimate run for the money. In what could be a sign that Lookin At Lucky’s bad luck is already changing, he drew post-position #7—or in this case it might be the lucky #7.

The rest of the field will be looking to spring the upset. The other three horses that ran in the Kentucky Derby are Paddy O’Prado, Dublin and Jackson Bend.

Paddy O’Prado came from well back in the Derby to finish with a rush to get 3rd. Oddly enough the Preakness Stakes will be his first career start on a fast dry track. The Preakness looks like the pace will not be nearly as quick as it was at Churchill Downs. Expect Paddy O’Prado to be closer in the Preakness. The only question is whether he will be able to duplicate his strong run in the Kentucky Derby.

Dublin ran a decent race in the Kentucky Derby. He made a bold move turning for home only to run into to traffic issues. I am still not sure is Dublin wants to run this far. Garrett Gomez replaces Terry Thompson in the saddle for the Preakness. D. Wayne Lukas has won the Preakness Stakes five times.

Jackson Bend is coming into the Preakness off a 12th place finish in the Kentucky Derby. He certainly did not have the best of trips. Jackson Bend might be at his best under a mile. The mile-and-three-sixteenths looks to be out of his range. He had a fantastic 4 furlong breeze in 46 on May 10. Jackson Bend has good tactical speed and could be one of the horses that decides to go to the lead.

The new shooters make up the rest of the field. The most intriguing new shooter of the group is Schoolyard Dreams—who finished just a nip ahaead of Super Saver in the Tampa Bay Derby. That was back in March and Super Saver has improved two-fold since that race. Schoolyard Dreams will be coming into the Preakness off a pair of very sharp 5 furlong breezes. Trainer Derek Ryan who campaigned Musket Man last year to back-to-back 3rd place finishes in the the Kentucky Derby and Preakness Stakes should not be totally ignored.

Akenite is the other Todd Pletcher trainee to run in the Preakness Stakes. He is coming in off a good 2nd place finish in the Derby Trial to Hurricane Ike. The added distance should help his cause, and he will be making his 3rd start off the layoff—two positives. He would need to take a large step forward to threaten for top honors.

Pleasant Prince has been working lights out for trainer Michael Maker. Pleasant Prince came up a nose hair short of defeating Ice Box in the Florida Derby. A late sustained rally is expected from him in the Preakness. A slow pace could hinder his chances however.

Yawanna Twist, Northern Giant, Caracortado and First Dude round the field for the 135th Preakness Stakes. Yawanna Twist is a quick New York Bred who will be trying a distance that is probably a bit too far for him, but do not be stunned if Yawanna Twist decides to take the fight to them and go right to the lead in a race where there is no clear cut speed horse. Caracortado might have run his best races at 2--makes 4th start off the layoff, going this far might be out of his range. He gets the benefit of the doubt however. He did get a bad trip in the Santa Anita. He has some speed and he could very well be another one that will possibly try to take over on the front end. He comes in working well for this. First Dude comes into the Preakness with a pair of sharp 5 furlong breezes--a winner at a mile-and-eighth and ran second to Dwyer winner Fly Down twice.

How to bet the Preakness Stakes

Two possible bets--Super Saver and Lookin At Lucky in the 1st and 2nd slot and wheel the rest of the field for 3rd for a $1—a $20 investment. If I see a vulnerable favorite—I always try to beat them, but these two look solid. Usually I do not make this bet, but as mentioned above the Preakness has been a formful race in recent years. The hope is one of the longer shots can get up for 3rd. You certainly won’t get rich with this bet, but it’s a decent priced bet and you will certainly get in on the action. If all goes well the chance to make a profit does exist. Superfectas with the same strategy for 3rd & 4th place is also an option.

Ticket 7,8/7,8/All $1 Trifecta $20

If you are not found of either Super Saver or Lookin At Lucky—take a shot against both of them. Schoolyard Dreams might have the best chance of the new shooters to threaten for the upset win. The rest of the field will offer good value. Paddy O'Prado in all likely hood will not go off as high as some of the horses already mentioned.

Another bet that might be a good idea instead of the trifecta is a 5 horse exacta box. If you are not crazy about Lookin At Lucky—you can box 5 horses who have run well or won at a mile-and-an-eighth—Super Saver, Paddy O'Prado, Pleasant Prince and First Dude—and Schoolyard Dreams. You get the post time favorite in there, but the four others should offer value.

Ticket 2,3,8,10,11 $1 Exacta Box $20

Super Saver has a great chance to have a shot at running for the Triple Crown in three weeks at Belmont Park, but leave no doubt Lookin At Lucky will do everything he can to derail that bid—and is capable with a top effort—if luck finally decides to go his way. A thrilling stretch battle with Super Saver could be in the works. Good luck!

[depalma113]

Super Saver over First Dude, Dublin

Win bet on First Dude

[salty]

I've decided on Caracortado for my pick I feel that he would have been right up there in the santa anita if he hadn't been behind Lucky. Good finishes in almost every race.


keying :9:

with

:5: :7: :8: :10: :12:

in tri's

I might switch to paddy if the price is right. i think if he is under 5-1 i will pass. It could be surprising if it gets bet like the derby.

[newtothegame]

ok....here are my selections for whatever its worth (NOT MUCH LOL)

7 w 2368 w 2356810 $24

236 w 7 w 2356810 $18

236 w 2356810 w 7 $18

total of $60 1 dollar tri's

[Sekrah]

Although I tend to agree with you Sekrah, funny that Robes just picked him as his key on The Sheets website (not that that means anything, although he did have the BES winner today).

The old fool gets fed to the wolves in spots like this while ignoring very obvious pedigree and distance questions.

The rest of his analysis is solid but we see the same old "light use" with every damn horse in the field, rarely making him a big loser.

[llegend39]

#:3: Pleasant Prince -liked him in the Fla Derby 2nd to Ice Box twice give him a big shot here
#:6: -Jackson Bend-my Derby pick maybe didnt like the track,another chance here
#:8: Super Saver -hard to toss the Derby winner

[W2G]

#:3: Pleasant Prince -liked him in the Fla Derby 2nd to Ice Box twice give him a big shot here
#:6: -Jackson Bend-my Derby pick maybe didnt like the track,another chance here
#:8: Super Saver -hard to toss the Derby winner

I was about to post my selections with some brief comments but you did it for me. Good luck!

[098poi]

The Derby is such an event unto itself I am going to pretend it didn't happen and say that :7: Lookin At Lucky should get his trip today. That's my win pick. Good luck everyone.

[garyscpa]

You seriously think that bbq some steaks has a chance on Saturday?!? You're dreaming. Let me tell you a little bit about the pedigree here.

I'm going with bbq some ribs in a runaway!

I think this guy's onto something. :)

[Danieljay]

Im thinking Borel is gonna bounce today. Tossing him out of the money puts Lookin @ Lucky the clear winner today. I played lucky in the derby and right out of the gate I knew he wouldnt make it. Today is the day though. Heres my picks

$200 WP #7 Lookin @ Lucky
$50 EX (straight) #7 - #6

[redeye007]

trifecta and superfecta
I think your're right danieljay, maybe. I'll toss him too. I'll key on lookinatlucky.
7 with 3-5-9-10-11. chance bet

[betchatoo]

I think this race sets up for Super Saver even better than the Derby. He
gets a shorter distance, not as much speed to run against and a good post. He's not a lock, but I'm going to be keying him on top.

Looking at Lucky gets a far more favorable post and might be ready to spring
the race he was expected to run at the Derby. I do fear that getting banged around as much as he did there might have taken something out of him. Still, he's a solid horse and a little scary.

Jackson Bend is a horse I think might be sitting on a big race. He was
improving every race into the Derby and had no chance there. Today he'll be
close to the pace and might make a run at them.

The 2 new horses I think are worth looking at are Yawanna Twist and Pleasant Prince. Both are improving and could fill out an exacta or a tri at a big
price.

My personal strategy will be to take Super Saver over the others. I might
take a couple of shots with Looking At Lucky on top just in case he's
completely healed from the Derby.

[Robert Fischer]

I am passing the race. Too much guesswork and not enough value.

The two best horses are LAL and S.Saver and they will both be too low to bet. LAL went from one of the better jockeys to a pinhead. Whether this was pressure by clueless owners, or if Baffert is really that dumb, hard to say. The silly thing is that it could actually work in LUCKY's favor because with Garcia only knowing how to ride one way he could end up being neck and neck with Super Saver, and Super Saver is always only a bump away from not being able to change leads. Borel is so much better than Garcia that it more than equalizes whatever price you are hoping for in the better horse(Lucky)

First Dude is a cool horse who does everything right fundamentally, but either Romans doesn't juice, or he does a horrible job at it. This is a horse that could have been a top horse with the right trainer. There just aren't many horses with stamina and good footwork in the game. I just can't bet a Romans horse here, although he wouldn't shock.

Yawanna Twist is attractive in some ways. Mostly because he will be dismissed as distance limited, which he is, but the connections are right and the horse hasn't quit badly yet. Problem is that these big stakes races tend to have over-bet longshots, and I would want 40-1+ on this guy, not 20-1.

[gm10]

1) Super Saver: win (5/2)
2) Yawanna Twist: win/place/show (30/1)
3) Irish exacta box: Paddy O'Prado/Dublin.

[Rookies]

Unlike NEWs claim of only one ca$h on the TC, I've had a few winners of each, but pale in comparison to the knowledge of many here. Like some here, did love Borel in the mud at the Derby, but couldn't hook up on any of the exotics.

Today, I'm going to Bet LOL to overcome his troubles. However, for value I've been listening, learning and reading here. So, I'm adding:

R12 2.00 USD TRI 2,3,7,8/2,3,7,8/2,3,7,8,11,12 = $96.

Some Exactors with some of the above.

GLTA

[GaryG]

Rookies - Like your chances....:ThmbUp:

Here is my final answer: Ex box: :2: :3: :8: :11:
Win bets on: :2: :11:

[Investorater]

It would appear the speed is holding up well on Preakness Day.

My minimum profit expectancy is that I won't accept less than 50 cents per
dollar risked in the Win/Place pools.

Without seeing the closing odds my Bet - % apportionment at this point, on #7 Lookin At Lucky would be $65 bucks to Place and $35 to Win.

Best of Luck to All.....

[WinterTriangle]

Based on my own "scoring" system, 5 horses with the highest PLAY scores are:


Super Saver, Pleasant Prince, Lookin at Lucky, Paddy O'Prado & Jackson Bend.

(First Dude and Dublin "squeaked" by and may be slipped in if playing deeper vertical exotics).


All other horses were tosses for me.

I suggest exactas/trifectas to include the first 5.
Superfectas to include the squeakers along with them.

Good luck everyone!

[joanied]

Winter T...hope you have a great Preakness Day:ThmbUp: I posted my picks someplace...I'm gonna stay with 'em...

Has anyone heard any news about the 2 fillies that went down in the BES yesterday? I have not heard anything...so I hope no news is good news.

[Joey D]

Exactas

:9: / :7: , :8: , :12:

:7: , :8: , :12: / :9:

Win bet on :9:

[DeanT]

I am passing the race. Too much guesswork and not enough value.

The two best horses are LAL and S.Saver and they will both be too low to bet. LAL went from one of the better jockeys to a pinhead. Whether this was pressure by clueless owners, or if Baffert is really that dumb, hard to say. The silly thing is that it could actually work in LUCKY's favor because with Garcia only knowing how to ride one way he could end up being neck and neck with Super Saver, and Super Saver is always only a bump away from not being able to change leads. Borel is so much better than Garcia that it more than equalizes whatever price you are hoping for in the better horse(Lucky)

First Dude is a cool horse who does everything right fundamentally, but either Romans doesn't juice, or he does a horrible job at it. This is a horse that could have been a top horse with the right trainer. There just aren't many horses with stamina and good footwork in the game. I just can't bet a Romans horse here, although he wouldn't shock.

Yawanna Twist is attractive in some ways. Mostly because he will be dismissed as distance limited, which he is, but the connections are right and the horse hasn't quit badly yet. Problem is that these big stakes races tend to have over-bet longshots, and I would want 40-1+ on this guy, not 20-1.

Im with you, but I have to take an action ticket with a potential payoff to cheer.

What the hey:

2-578-578-A and 2-578-A-578 supers.

Schoolyard Dreams might improve and if the chalk arent right for some reason maybe it can provide a payoff, in what looks like a payoff-less race!

[Stevie Belmont]

The Three New Shooters In The Preakness Stakes That Are The Most Intriguing Are Schoolyard Dreams, First Dude & Pleasant Prince

They all will offer value and could run a good race here today.

[joanied]

I wish Schoolyard Dreams best of luck...for Slewis...had him as one of my picks to hit the board...but have since tossed him...but do hope he goes on to win his share this season:) ...

First Dude is so impressive looking...glides over the track...I really like him to pick up a check...as long as he doesn't get checked!!

Still going with my 2 lists...
Lucky, Super, Paddy, Dude
or...
Super, Lucky, Paddy, Dude...although, the Dude may very well get 3rd, IMO.

Yesterday I had Dutrow's filly for 2nd in the BES...shoulda put her on top...had a good feeling about her...hope I don't screw up today:D

[lamboguy]

my preakness possibilites are:

SCHOOLYARD DREAMS
YAWANNA TWIST
PADDY O PRADO
DUBLIN

i got to let supersaver and looking at lucky beat me in this one. i don't like the way supersaver trained this week, lucky trained great, but they might have him named wrong

[EQUIPACE]

$1 Trifectas

8
1-5-7-9-10-12
1-5-7-9-10-12


1-5-7-9-10-12
8
1-5-7-9-10-12

Total Cost $60

$10 Win #5
$20 Place #5

Good luck to all!

[joanied]

my preakness possibilites are:

SCHOOLYARD DREAMS
YAWANNA TWIST
PADDY O PRADO
DUBLIN

i got to let supersaver and looking at lucky beat me in this one. i don't like the way supersaver trained this week, lucky trained great, but they might have him named wrong

Really...about Super Saver...of course I didn't see much, what I did see he looked very good...and they say he's trained great and everything is 100%...why do you say he hasn't trained good? That sucks, lambo...
I do agree about Lucky...but, I've been in love with him since last year...if SS can't win today...make it be Lucky!
:) Good luck, lambo

[McSock]

$5 exb :2: :6: :7: $30
$5 exb :2: :6: :8: $30
$20 exb :7: :8: $40

Total out #100.00

I am hitting so many right now (cough) this my only real bet of the day.

[SmartyLane]

$5 Trifecta
Super Saver w/
Paddy, LAL, Pleasant Prince, First Dude w/
Same

[Burls]

PIM R :12:

:7: :8: w:6: :7: :8: :10: w:6: :7: :8: :10:

[Investorater]

Correction: 5/2 = $75 Place and $25 Win_or 3-1 = $70 Place and $30 Win.

[hazzardm]

EBX 11/All Go Dude!

[DRIVEWAY]

:2: :3: :8: $5 exacta box
:2: :3: $35 win

Total $100

[DeanT]

EBX 11/All Go Dude!
Nice try. He raced fabulous.

[Stevie Belmont]

Blew the exacta totally--used Super In the 5 zacta box--First Dude was in there...

Did not want to put 2 chalks in a 5 horse exacta box

Damn!!

Still had a decent day

[precocity]

lost my azz :( :(

[PhantomOnTour]

I never hit the Preakness, but this time I missed badly. Had Calvin in the top two slots on all tickets.

What I did right:
Got off Paddy and Dublin
Sprinkled Yawanna Twist underneath in my tri/super

What I did wrong:
Although I was on Ramon all day I failed to recognize that he would get all the way over to the golden rail and ride ride ride.
Relied WAY too heavy on Super Saver
Ignored the tenacity of Jackson Bend


Oh well, I always do well on the undercard and cut my profits by bombing in the Preakness. Some things never change. :)

[WinterTriangle]

Based on my own "scoring" system, 5 horses with the highest PLAY scores are:


Super Saver, Pleasant Prince, Lookin at Lucky, Paddy O'Prado & Jackson Bend.

(First Dude and Dublin "squeaked" by and may be slipped in if playing deeper vertical exotics).




Keyed on Super Saver, so lost my trifecta. :(

[WinterTriangle]

Lucky, Super, Paddy, Dude
or...
Super, Lucky, Paddy, Dude...

Nice exactas, Joanie!

[johnhannibalsmith]

Pleasant Prince is a vastly superior animal to Aikenite. I promise you this.


They have been in the same gate 3 times. Aikenite has beaten him 2 out of 3 times.


Anyone leaving him (Super Saver) off the top of their tickets is just a very poor handicapper.


Since my entire Preakness experience revolved around these and several other related quotes, I figured I'd help out with the results for anyone else keeping score of the thread.

[Dahoss9698]

Quick recap, Yawanna Twist ran a hell of a lot better than I thought he would. Aikenite stunk it up, but he still finished in front of Pleasant Prince. I should have trusted my gut on Super Saver after the Derby.

I've been wrong about Lookin At Lucky all along. The guy who looks best come Belmont is Nick Zito.

[Investorater]

It would appear the speed is holding up well on Preakness Day.

My minimum profit expectancy is that I won't accept less than 50 cents per
dollar risked in the Win/Place pools.

Without seeing the closing odds my Bet - % apportionment at this point, on #7 Lookin At Lucky would be $65 bucks to Place and $35 to Win.

Best of Luck to All.....

At (2-1) closing odds it's $80 bucks to Place and $20 to Win, so I'll take a profit

of $152, on_#7_Lookin At Lucky_in this particular race.

[Robert Fischer]

First Dude is a cool horse who does everything right fundamentally, but either Romans doesn't juice, or he does a horrible job at it. This is a horse that could have been a top horse with the right trainer. There just aren't many horses with stamina and good footwork in the game. I just can't bet a Romans horse here, although he wouldn't shock.

If pletcher or dutrow or sadler or mullins etc... knew how to study an animal and judge talent, they could have had a bigger impact type of horse with first dude. All the juice in the world doesn't get aikenite, sydneys candy etc to be a real triple crown type thoroughbred. It only get you the cheap stakes and the speed bias stakes, but not the adversity. You still need to have the right character in the animal for the adversity. Even Super Saver has his fatal flaw.

[Robert Fischer]

Quick recap, Yawanna Twist ran a hell of a lot better than I thought he would.

he was a cool longshot, but these triple crown races are hard to get your 40-1 or whatever on a horse like that. The longest shot in the field was 30-1. You can't bet Twist at 15-1.

The race wasn't all that great either. This wasn't a clash of superstars by any means, just a solid 3yo G2,G1 stakes race

[Sericm]

SEKRAH-

Learn how to handicap before you call other people a troll, everything I said came true except for Paddy O' Prado not hitting the board. If Super Saver and Looking at Lucky meet ten times the result will be the same. Like most of the others you jumped on the bandwagon and went gaga over C.B.s ride on the muddy bog that is Churchill.

If you followed any racing west of the rockies you would know it wasn't that much of a loss for Baffert to replace Gomez with Garcia.

Would you like salt and pepper with your crow?

Sericm:D

[newtothegame]

ok....here are my selections for whatever its worth (NOT MUCH LOL)

7 w 2368 w 2356810 $24

236 w 7 w 2356810 $18

236 w 2356810 w 7 $18

total of $60 1 dollar tri's

Ughh had the right key with LOL had third with JB but couldnt bring myself to add FD....Great job to all who did!!!

[bisket]

If pletcher or dutrow or sadler or mullins etc... knew how to study an animal and judge talent, they could have had a bigger impact type of horse with first dude. All the juice in the world doesn't get aikenite, sydneys candy etc to be a real triple crown type thoroughbred. It only get you the cheap stakes and the speed bias stakes, but not the adversity. You still need to have the right character in the animal for the adversity. Even Super Saver has his fatal flaw.
i loved dude in the fla derby, but jumped ship afterwards. i wish i would have at least included him in my saver exacta

[Stillriledup]

Sorry if this has been discussed (havent been able to read thru all 12 pages) but does anyone know why Pim had no dime supers on the preakness?

They cost themselves a bunch of money, i know i didnt bet supers at all, i saved my money and bet less on the race.

[Dahoss9698]

I lay the over/under on the number of days it takes Sekrah to come back to this thread at 3. Place your bets.

[redshift1]

I lay the over/under on the number of days it takes Sekrah to come back to this thread at 3. Place your bets.

He'll be back when Super Saver crosses the finish line.

[redeye007]

Im thinking Borel is gonna bounce today. Tossing him out of the money puts Lookin @ Lucky the clear winner today. I played lucky in the derby and right out of the gate I knew he wouldnt make it. Today is the day though. Heres my picks

$200 WP #7 Lookin @ Lucky
$50 EX (straight) #7 - #6

nice call :jump:

[joanied]

Nice exactas, Joanie!

Sorta...glad I at least did say I thought First Dude would take 3rd :) ...

I will say this, and maybe it'll sound like BS...but when they were loading in the gate, Donna Barton said Lucky looked great, but she thought Super Saver had lost wieght...now, why on earth didn't anyone say something about SS's condition long before they were loading?!
I turned to my husband and told him..."well, $hit...first I heard that, and I don't like it...let's just root for Lucky"...
so when they hit mid stretch I was :jump: up & yelling for Lucky...I actually didn't really even watch Calvin & Super Saver...had my eyes glued to Lucky...and it's great when the winning connections whoop it up...unlike Todd who doesn't do much more than a fist pump...the enthusiasm in the Baffert group makes everyone feel happy...

I felt a little sad for Calvin...not for Pletcher at all, but for Calvin...he rode a good race, no mistakes, the colt just didn't have it...afterall, he has lost wieght...only no one said so...lamboguy mentioned he didn't care for the way SS was training...guess he was right.

Anyway...since Lucky has been my horse since last year...I feel especially happy with his win...Garcia rode a great race...this colt really should be undefeated...but, he'll be tough the rest of the year, where ever Baffert puts him...one thing we've all agreed on...Lucky has grit...he's a fighter and never gives up...

loved Dublin's break from the gate:rolleyes: ...took Gomez for a little tour of the outside rail :D ...he did a nice job getting Dublin on the rail after that...this colt may have a ton of talent, but he is a head case, that's for sure.

On the Belmont...Zito will probably win another one!!

[hazzardm]

Dude ran huge. Look out Elmont.

[Greyfox]

Donna Barton said Lucky looked great, but she thought Super Saver had lost wieght...now, why on earth didn't anyone say something about SS's condition long before they were loading?!


Yes. That's the first time I heard about any weight loss.
Pletcher was quoted earlier in the week as saying the colt was eating well.
Barton also pointed out that Dublin might veer out from gate 12.
He did. I had him on top and his race was over right away as he decided to try to sign autographs in the grandstand.

[Stevie Belmont]

It's funny how you get a tid-bid like that right as they are going in the gate. Nothing heard of it before. These are things I like to know.

[Stevie Belmont]

Nice exacta...

Good job

I wish Schoolyard Dreams best of luck...for Slewis...had him as one of my picks to hit the board...but have since tossed him...but do hope he goes on to win his share this season:) ...

First Dude is so impressive looking...glides over the track...I really like him to pick up a check...as long as he doesn't get checked!!

Still going with my 2 lists...
Lucky, Super, Paddy, Dude
or...
Super, Lucky, Paddy, Dude...although, the Dude may very well get 3rd, IMO.

Yesterday I had Dutrow's filly for 2nd in the BES...shoulda put her on top...had a good feeling about her...hope I don't screw up today:D

[Grits]

Yes. That's the first time I heard about any weight loss.
Pletcher was quoted earlier in the week as saying the colt was eating well.
Barton also pointed out that Dublin might veer out from gate 12.
He did. I had him on top and his race was over right away as he decided to try to sign autographs in the grandstand.

With her many years as a jock, Donna's still got a fine eye for a fit racehorse. And she does an excellent job in each telecast she's involved with; knowledgeable, comfortable, and too, warm, on-air presence.

She, and Jill Byrne are aces.

[WinterTriangle]

Pletcher was quoted

Why I like zito so much, and there are others of course. Ever notice how some trainers say something and it's straightforward, and others ones don't? I never pegged Pletcher for being forthcoming.

Barton also pointed out that Dublin might veer out from gate 12.

One of the most common comments about dublin has been that he has "issues". Not exactly sure what they are, but his racing history is a testament to that. He is very impressive looking, but he's not getting the job done. It's mental.

[JPinMaryland]

Dublin seems to have trouble on the break as seen in the PPs. That plus adding blinkers for the first time I think, and breaking from the outer post were a bad sign. There seems to be a tendency for horses who have troubles on the break to have more trouble breaking from the outer post.

[Bettowin]

Dublin seems to have trouble on the break as seen in the PPs. That plus adding blinkers for the first time I think, and breaking from the outer post were a bad sign. There seems to be a tendency for horses who have troubles on the break to have more trouble breaking from the outer post.

Dublin wore blinkers as far back as the Rebel in April. Maybe even before that but that was the first time I saw him.

http://picasaweb.google.com/tband81/2010OaklawnParkRebelStakesAndMissHoneybeeStakes#54 48963772162508578

http://picasaweb.google.com/tband81/2010OaklawnParkRebelStakesAndMissHoneybeeStakes#54 48963417510372066

[joanied]

Nice exacta...

Good job

:) Thanks, Stevie B. Hope Dude goes in the Belmont:ThmbUp:

[joanied]

Why I like zito so much, and there are others of course. Ever notice how some trainers say something and it's straightforward, and others ones don't? I never pegged Pletcher for being forthcoming.



One of the most common comments about dublin has been that he has "issues". Not exactly sure what they are, but his racing history is a testament to that. He is very impressive looking, but he's not getting the job done. It's mental.

Zito...as honest as they come!! Pletcher is like Asmussen and several other trainers...they may not actually lie:liar: ...but don't tell the truth :mad: ...all those interviews with Todd, and never once did he even hint at Super Saver dropping some weight...thank goodness for Donna Barton:ThmbUp:

The minute Dublin drew that outside post...well, it wasn't hard for me to put together 2+2= he's gonna break and veer right. I've said before...great looking colt, probably has a ton of talent...but he is a head case!

[Dahoss9698]

Day 3 and still no Sekrah. Shocking.

[hazzardm]

No word on the superior handicapping prowess at the TG forum either. :D

[bisket]

Zito...as honest as they come!! Pletcher is like Asmussen and several other trainers...they may not actually lie:liar: ...but don't tell the truth :mad: ...all those interviews with Todd, and never once did he even hint at Super Saver dropping some weight...thank goodness for Donna Barton:ThmbUp:

The minute Dublin drew that outside post...well, it wasn't hard for me to put together 2+2= he's gonna break and veer right. I've said before...great looking colt, probably has a ton of talent...but he is a head case!
i thought it was rather hilarious that pletcher blamed the time in between races for super's bad performance.

[joanied]

i thought it was rather hilarious that pletcher blamed the time in between races for super's bad performance.

He would have been better to say something to the effect that the Preakness was the colt's 3rd race in 5 weeks...same set up as the TC, and that the 2 wks. was too short for this colt.