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smartybadger
05-10-2010, 05:02 PM
I cannot remember a Preakness in quite some time in which I had less of an idea about what exactly was going to happen than this one. I think I would need to go back to 2002-2003 to find myself in a similar situation going into the Preakness, with two Derby winners that people thought were pretty good but were unsure exactly how good they were...I think that rings true here with Super Saver.

In 2002, War Emblem front ran a Derby that lacked decent speed and almost did the same in the Preakness, stalking Menacing Dennis most of the way, taking the lead on the far turn and holding onto beat Magic Wisner (no idea how to spell his name). I think going into that race, people were unsure of what to expect, and I believe they were still unsure after that race.

In 2003, Funny Cide won by nearly ten lengths in the Preakness after winning the Derby by a couple of lengths over Empire Maker/Peace Rules...Peace Rules ran in the Preakness and Empire Maker did not. Again, I believe people went into that one wanting to know if Funny Cide was the real deal, and had their questions answered better than they did in 2002 after the Preakness.

Seven years later, I believe we are in a similar boat with Super Saver. If he wins on Saturday, I will not be surprised one bit, same goes if he is defeated. I think that is the nature of these three year olds this year...no one is quite sure who is good/how good they are etc., and I believe that is evidenced by the fact that there was no true favorite in the Derby this year. With Lookin' at Lucky aimed toward the Preakness, it's entirely possible he could get a much better post and run a better race than he did in the Derby. With the field shaping up to be potentially full, I think bewilderment sets in even more. The post position draw might help us out a little bit.

Sorry to ramble here, but is anyone else absolutely clueless about what to expect on Saturday?

wisconsin
05-10-2010, 07:18 PM
Lookin' at Lucky can't help but get a better trip at Pimlico.

Cardus
05-10-2010, 07:43 PM
This thread title made me think that the Preakness was not certain to be run this year.

smartybadger
05-10-2010, 07:46 PM
Haha, not the intention but good point nonetheless.

bisket
05-10-2010, 08:20 PM
magic wiesner is one of my favorite horses of all time. linda albert who bred, trained, and owned him is just one of those people around the game that deserved a break. albert aquired wiesner's mom for free. she kept the mare simply because waquoit was in her bloodlines. i can't recall who was wiesner's sire but it wasn't an expensive stallion. she got a good break by almost winning the preakness with wiesner, but also was heartbroken that the horse came down with west nile virus. the horse made it through, but wasn't the same afterwards. i'm sure she probably still has the gelding. mike smith was the talk of the town, and i remember him being quoted in the paper as thinking in the stretch, " i'm going to finsh second in the preakness". he said mrs. albert was the salt of the earth and he would ride a horse anytime for her. smith has always been a favorite rider of mine ever since. i think wiesner went on to win either the ohio or indiana derby later that summer. a good preakness story worth sharing.

Cardus
05-10-2010, 08:32 PM
It was a nice story, however, you do not remember that he was sired by Ameri Valay -- though you're right, he was not an expensive sire -- and won the Ohio Derby that year? This doesn't make sense that he was one of your all-time favorites.

Also, he ran second to War Emblem in the Haskell Invitational.

Running second at home for Alberts was a nice story, though. And he ran fourth in the Belmont Stakes to Sarava, too. It was a nice story for Alberts, a dedicated horsewoman.

bisket
05-10-2010, 08:39 PM
i was telling that story from memory.. its been a few years. you know i forgot about the haskell. a nice gelding to come from nowhere. i actually think he was gelded when he got the virus if i remember right. i didn't mention that because i couldn't remember for sure.

bisket
05-10-2010, 08:42 PM
smarty i actually think this preakness is pretty predictable. although i could be wrong. super saver and lookin at lucky will finish first or second. i'll now which one will finish first after the draw. now third will take some handicapping. at least thats how i see it right now.

Ejmenz
05-10-2010, 09:52 PM
The Derby winner seems to always come out smoking, winning the derby makes the horse better and more confident, sometimes it lasts until late in the Belmont, 11 times it lasted longer.

Having said that, let me out smart myself, isn't Caracortado trying dirt for the first time?

BluegrassProf
05-10-2010, 10:30 PM
Lookin' at Lucky can't help but get a better trip at _____.Famous last words!

(Words that it seems like we JUST said.... :D)

JustRalph
05-10-2010, 11:16 PM
In 2002, War Emblem front ran a Derby that lacked decent speed and almost did the same in the Preakness, stalking Menacing Dennis most of the way, taking the lead on the far turn and holding onto beat Magic Wisner (no idea how to spell his name). I think going into that race, people were unsure of what to expect, and I believe they were still unsure after that race.


I thought it was easy........ biggest score ever for me. I also had tickets with M.Weisner on Top, if he had made it a win I probably would have one less mortgage payment.......... :bang:

I still have the framed chart around here somewhere.............

Magic has his own wiki page: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Magic_Weisner

I am pretty sure that The Mig rode Weisner in the Preakness.........

This Preakness seems pretty cut and dry to me.......depending on who gets in. Run the numbers, do the same things I always do. No Voodoo to it. The distance coming back is what makes it easier for me.

PhantomOnTour
05-10-2010, 11:23 PM
Hate to sound so matter-of-fact before the posts are even drawn, but this race is Super Saver's to lose, period. He is the dominant pace horse in this race, although Hurricane Ike will probably be the early leader. Anyone who tries to hang with Super (other than maybe Schoolyard Dreams) in that stalking role will be left behind when Calvin makes his move. Paddy is getting better and now gets dirt fast (maybe) but I don't think he has the move that Super has, and he was tiring in the Derby.
By my figs, the 6f pace number put up by Super Saver in each of his last 5 races buries everyone but Schoolyard Dreams. I say that because of the TB Dby in which Schoolyard beat Super Saver while contesting the pace from the far turn to the wire.
I see Ike leading with Super, Paddy, and Jackson Bend sitting close. Calvin moves SS into the far turn and Schoolyard joins the fray. Paddy hangs in there awhile but relents, and SS will shrug off Schoolyard at about the 3/16 pole...then it's up to Lucky, Pleasant Prince, Dublin, Make Music, and perhaps Aikenite to sort out the lower slots.
I see an open lengths win with closers getting 2nd and 3rd.

JPinMaryland
05-11-2010, 12:43 AM
Even the super is not so tough, prolly spend 8 or 10 bucks on that, no more.

Edward DeVere
05-11-2010, 12:46 AM
magic wiesner is one of my favorite horses of all time. linda albert who bred, trained, and owned him is just one of those people around the game that deserved a break. albert aquired wiesner's mom for free. she kept the mare simply because waquoit was in her bloodlines. i can't recall who was wiesner's sire but it wasn't an expensive stallion. she got a good break by almost winning the preakness with wiesner, but also was heartbroken that the horse came down with west nile virus. the horse made it through, but wasn't the same afterwards. i'm sure she probably still has the gelding. mike smith was the talk of the town, and i remember him being quoted in the paper as thinking in the stretch, " i'm going to finsh second in the preakness". he said mrs. albert was the salt of the earth and he would ride a horse anytime for her. smith has always been a favorite rider of mine ever since. i think wiesner went on to win either the ohio or indiana derby later that summer. a good preakness story worth sharing.

Linda Albert, Nancy Alberts, they all look alike.

(Actually, they don't look alike.)

WinterTriangle
05-11-2010, 02:30 AM
If he wins on Saturday, I will not be surprised one bit, same goes if he is defeated

Gee, unless there is a total "lock", isn't this true of every race every day? ;)

Even the so-called locks don't always win.

As for who has a chance, for my own picks, I'll know more when I'm done with my excel chart....for the derby the exacta jumped off the page.

The 'goods' have to be there for each horse that hits the trifecta, same as the derby, right? Handicap it similarly, except for pimlico and a tad shorter. Running style in a route shouldn't change all that much from 9.5F to 10F IMHO, review their last 2 . I add ped-head stuff like looking at what distances the sire and broodmare sire won at, and how the other progeny of similar nicks are doing in classic races, both here and outside of North America, stamina indexes, etc.

this seems like a vacation after trying to handicap the derby in slop with 20 horses.

WinterTriangle
05-11-2010, 03:39 AM
then it's up to Lucky, Pleasant Prince, Dublin, Make Music,

I'm pretty sure Make Music is going in the Belmont, not the Preakness.

ManeMediaMogul
05-11-2010, 06:01 AM
Does Caracortado have any chance?

There is an interesting story about him at www.racehorsereport.com (http://www.racehorsereport.com). Sounds like the trainer likes him, but he seems a tad light in speed figures to me.

theveep
05-11-2010, 06:21 AM
I think this Preakness is also pretty predictable, not because Super Saver is so strong, but because the field is so weak. I see Super Saver winning easily. I don't think Looking for Lucky is a lock; any other derby horse can place in this race, so I think that spot is wide open at the moment. I don't like the jockey change or the lack of experience on dirt with Lucky.

Lou

thorobasePA
05-11-2010, 01:19 PM
For your consideration:

9-4 Super Saver
4-1 Lookin At Lucky
4-1 Paddy O'Prado
9-1 Hurricane Ike
12-1 Dublin
14-1 Pleasant Prince
14-1 Schoolyard Dreams
16-1 Aikenite
16-1 Caracortado
16-1 First Dude
25-1 Jackson Bend
25-1 Yawanna Twist
40-1 Northern Giant

overthehill
05-11-2010, 04:34 PM
I think super saver is the type of winner I would be against. had an affinity for both the track and the slop and a perfect rail trip to boot.