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View Full Version : What to do after getting contenders ?


rebrick99
05-10-2010, 11:45 AM
When using handicapping software and the program selects 3 or 4 contenders
how do you know if the trainer is trying with his horse or is out for exercise.
What are some positive signs that the trainer is going for the win.

RichieP
05-10-2010, 11:54 AM
You can try:
1) looking at Ray Talbout's angles that reveal intent of the trainer. They are time proven and guys here like "GLedda" and others are very familiar with using them to profit with at the windows.

2) Finding the contenders who raced well against the fastest pace of race in their last race or the race you are considering them off of. That usually signals a ready horse in today's matchup.

3) Look for patterns in the horse's pps that show a similar successful lead up to today's race by the trainer previously. Yes while it is true the horse runs the race he has to be entered somehow and that falls on the trainer.

Best of luck/skill :)

46zilzal
05-10-2010, 12:07 PM
When using handicapping software and the program selects 3 or 4 contenders
how do you know if the trainer is trying with his horse or is out for exercise.
What are some positive signs that the trainer is going for the win.
you dont

acorn54
05-10-2010, 02:33 PM
common sense says that if you see the horses as contenders, then odds are that the trainer is trying to win the race purse with the horse,no?

arno
05-10-2010, 02:42 PM
Go to paddock and see which trainers are well dressed.

Many trainers wear jeans on no go days yet wear suits on days they are trying for a photo in winners circle.

46zilzal
05-10-2010, 02:44 PM
What the trainers wear? that has whiskers on it and does not work at all.

Evaluate the horse not the clothes

kenwoodall2
05-10-2010, 03:04 PM
What about owner's intent? or does a traier stiff a horse even if the owner think it is out to win?

kenwoodall2
05-10-2010, 03:07 PM
What about owner's intent? or does a traier stiff a horse even if the owner think it is out to win?
What I read from trainers sometimes is that its ok if the (stakes or layooff) horse does not win, but if a win is within sight they will try?
I would look at the prodicted start a to see if the runner is expected to be reasonably close at the start OR end.

46zilzal
05-10-2010, 03:42 PM
I always get a laugh out of the "Salty O'Rourke" persona that Hollywood movies have bestowed on the subliminal racing mentality.

Trainers work very hard BUT they have to please their owners who may have a different take on when and where to run a horse. I don't know how many times I hear a trainer tell the connections in the winners circle:"Wow that even surprised me today!" Just happened yesterday.

All this talk about stiffing still gets me. UNLESS the horse is in for obvious conditioning (a router off a layoff competes in a sprint where the horse has never done well) they are always trying. They may have picked a race where their chances are less than their evaluation, but they are tying or the owners would be looking elsewhere...SIMPLE as that.

ranchwest
05-11-2010, 01:32 AM
What about owner's intent? or does a traier stiff a horse even if the owner think it is out to win?

Sometimes.

ranchwest
05-11-2010, 01:36 AM
I always get a laugh out of the "Salty O'Rourke" persona that Hollywood movies have bestowed on the subliminal racing mentality.

Trainers work very hard BUT they have to please their owners who may have a different take on when and where to run a horse. I don't know how many times I hear a trainer tell the connections in the winners circle:"Wow that even surprised me today!" Just happened yesterday.

All this talk about stiffing still gets me. UNLESS the horse is in for obvious conditioning (a router off a layoff competes in a sprint where the horse has never done well) they are always trying. They may have picked a race where their chances are less than their evaluation, but they are tying or the owners would be looking elsewhere...SIMPLE as that.

A friend of mine ticked off a trainer, so the trainer dropped the horse below his level and then tanked the horse up on water. The horse lost and was claimed. The horse then moved up a level and won and moved up another level and won.

That may not happen often, but it does happen.

ranchwest
05-11-2010, 01:38 AM
What the trainers wear? that has whiskers on it and does not work at all.

Evaluate the horse not the clothes

I've seen it work if you are very familiar with the connections.

ranchwest
05-11-2010, 01:40 AM
You can try:
1) looking at Ray Talbout's angles that reveal intent of the trainer. They are time proven and guys here like "GLedda" and others are very familiar with using them to profit with at the windows.

2) Finding the contenders who raced well against the fastest pace of race in their last race or the race you are considering them off of. That usually signals a ready horse in today's matchup.

3) Look for patterns in the horse's pps that show a similar successful lead up to today's race by the trainer previously. Yes while it is true the horse runs the race he has to be entered somehow and that falls on the trainer.

Best of luck/skill :)

Which Taulbot angles are you referencing? I use Taulbot Box and that gives me a better picture of a race.

Robert Goren
05-11-2010, 09:55 AM
A friend of mine ticked off a trainer, so the trainer dropped the horse below his level and then tanked the horse up on water. The horse lost and was claimed. The horse then moved up a level and won and moved up another level and won.

That may not happen often, but it does happen.Talk about cutting off your nose to spite your face.:lol:

traynor
05-19-2010, 11:59 AM
Whether or not every race is a serious attempt (or even a half-hearted attempt) to win may be more a factor of purse value than of either owner or trainer intent. At a number of tracks (including one little track in upstate New York), it is more profitable to cash a ticket than to win a purse.

Obviously, if you have to wager a large amount to win a significant amount, going for purse money may be more profitable. However, at tracks where the purses may return less than $100 or $200 wagered on a controlled exacta, it is in the best financial interest of the participants to go the wagering route to the bank.

If you are not familiar with the term "controlled exacta" it refers to that unusual circumstance when the "best" horse seems to falter in the stretch, or be unwilling to extend itself, so that it finishes second in the exacta. No habitual chicanery is suggested--however, it is naive to imagine every horse (and every jockey) exerts maximum effort to win in every race. That illusion may make "handicapping" seem easier, but it is a long way from reality.

Trotman
05-30-2010, 01:13 PM
You can try:
1) looking at Ray Talbout's angles that reveal intent of the trainer. They are time proven and guys here like "GLedda" and others are very familiar with using them to profit with at the windows.

2) Finding the contenders who raced well against the fastest pace of race in their last race or the race you are considering them off of. That usually signals a ready horse in today's matchup.

3) Look for patterns in the horse's pps that show a similar successful lead up to today's race by the trainer previously. Yes while it is true the horse runs the race he has to be entered somehow and that falls on the trainer.

Best of luck/skill :)
This about sums it up as Richie P has posted. If you have read as much Taulbot works as I have Taulbot's Angles we're for you to learn by and his feeling was by identifying them as an angle you would make sure you would understand how he went about handicapping. In the handicapping process the movement up or down the ladder with the coming or going of condition tells you if the trainer knows or is competent for a winning race. :ThmbUp:

Jake
06-02-2010, 05:36 PM
Whether or not every race is a serious attempt (or even a half-hearted attempt) to win may be more a factor of purse value than of either owner or trainer intent. At a number of tracks (including one little track in upstate New York), it is more profitable to cash a ticket than to win a purse.

Obviously, if you have to wager a large amount to win a significant amount, going for purse money may be more profitable. However, at tracks where the purses may return less than $100 or $200 wagered on a controlled exacta, it is in the best financial interest of the participants to go the wagering route to the bank.

If you are not familiar with the term "controlled exacta" it refers to that unusual circumstance when the "best" horse seems to falter in the stretch, or be unwilling to extend itself, so that it finishes second in the exacta. No habitual chicanery is suggested--however, it is naive to imagine every horse (and every jockey) exerts maximum effort to win in every race. That illusion may make "handicapping" seem easier, but it is a long way from reality.

Excellent post. It's possible to do quite well long term with a wagering strategy tailored to this specific outcome. Have done so for several years. Whether it is intentional or not doesn't really matter. The payoffs make it worthwhile to look for this kind of play.

Jake