Hollywood Park 8th race, 5/9/10 was it a set up?

[Igeteven]

The horse # 1, that won should have gone at 30 to 1 odds, morning line was 15, drop to 8

A claimer going up in class to maidens special weight, the tote board showed something was wrong.

The horse won by day light.

Can anyone handicap the race and explain why he ran like the wind.

[toussaud]

yes it was freaking set up.

are you happy?


BTW I had to chose between the 1 and the 5 and I chose the 5, but I gave the 1 a legit chance

start handicapping and stop whining.

[Igeteven]

yes it was freaking set up.

are you happy?


BTW I had to chose between the 1 and the 5 and I chose the 5, but I gave the 1 a legit chance

start handicapping and stop whining.

How, can you explain it, I did handicap the race, you tell me since you are the best handicapper around.

[Rise Over Run]

joemc44 had it!

http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/showthread.php?t=70070

[Igeteven]

joemc44 had it!

http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/showthread.php?t=70070

I admit it, there are better people out there then me.

wow , that guy is good. :ThmbUp: :ThmbUp: :ThmbUp:

[ronsmac]

It's called steam. Insiders knew the horse was ready to roll. This has happened since the 30's. There are times conventional handicapping is lost.

[fmolf]

It's called steam. Insiders knew the horse was ready to roll. This has happened since the 30's. There are times conventional handicapping is lost.
I never wager on hollywod races but happened to see this one on tvg.Even the announcers were a bit flabbergasted and suggested he was an underlay at 8/1.Maiden specials are about the only races where i pay attention to tote action and morning line betdowns!I also pay attention if i make a maiden 20/1 and the public has him much lower,especially with firsters or second out or horses coming back after layoffs.

[menifee]

I don't understand why conventional handicapping couldn't pick this horse.

1. The horse had been running in maiden claimers on the fake stuff. In his last race he had run in a MSW downhill on the turf and had made the lead in that race through some pretty stiff fractions. He figured to make the lead or be pretty close to it.

2. The horse was part of an entry. It's entry mate had some of the strongest beyers. In fact its beyers were the second strongest in the race.

3. Weak rest of the field. Sometimes in those Hollywood turf races, you just need to make the lead. A lot of those horses, especially in maiden races can't pass each other in the stretch.

I don't think the race was set up.

[George Sands]

I don't understand why conventional handicapping couldn't pick this horse.

1. The horse had been running in maiden claimers on the fake stuff. In his last race he had run in a MSW downhill on the turf and had made the lead in that race through some pretty stiff fractions. He figured to make the lead or be pretty close to it.

2. The horse was part of an entry. It's entry mate had some of the strongest beyers. In fact its beyers were the second strongest in the race.

Right. The winner had run on grass once--in his most recent race. He ran a Thoro-Graph figure of 10.5, a faster number than any other horse in the race had ever run in its career. His entrymate was also competitive with any other horse in the race. This string is completely insane. In fact, it reminds me of the insane strings I used to read on the Del Mar Fan Forum before I stopped reading that thing.

[Greyfox]

The horse # 1, that won should have gone at 30 to 1 odds, morning line was 15, drop to 8

A claimer going up in class to maidens special weight, the tote board showed something was wrong.

The horse won by day light.

Can anyone handicap the race and explain why he ran like the wind.

Yes. What's your problem?
1. # 1 Image and Likeness went down Santa Anita's hill last time out at clip of 44 seconds and stopped. Did he stop? Or was that just a work out??
2. Translating that into a flat race that would be 45 seconds.
3. In the last race he was given a Beyer of 66.
4. If he had kept going and won that Beyer would have been 76, assuming that you know how to translate races into hidden possibilities.
5. With the highest Beyer in the race as 75, why couldn't this player win??

I had the late Pick 3 and didn't think twice about that anyone would even question this winner. In fact, I even happened to tell a patron who asked me if # 1 was a play and I said : Why not? You're getting two for the price of one as it was part of an entry.

[Greyfox]

I don't think the race was set up.

:ThmbUp: :ThmbUp: Agreed.

[JustRalph]

It's called steam. Insiders knew the horse was ready to roll. This has happened since the 30's. There are times conventional handicapping is lost.

This is especially true in California.

I didn't play the HOL card but just ran the card and the first thing that comes across is the "HUGE" workout rating the horse gets and the equally large form number the horse gets in my software.

The way workouts are followed in California, I am thinking tons of people were all over this horse for that reason alone. You can buy several different workout tip sheets in California, not to mention the radio shows etc that talk about the races every day.

In California, this is an every day occurrence.

[David-LV]

The horse # 1, that won should have gone at 30 to 1 odds, morning line was 15, drop to 8

A claimer going up in class to maidens special weight, the tote board showed something was wrong.

The horse won by day light.

Can anyone handicap the race and explain why he ran like the wind.

1-Cutback in distance from 6.5 to 6 after dueling for the lead in a 44.2 half his first start on turf in MSW $44.

2-Slight drop in class to MSW $41.

3-Big workout 7 days ago at HOL 5.0 in 59 flat.

4-A jockey that knows the horse, this was his 5th ride on the horse.

5-A horse that showed speed in 3 out of his last 4 starts.

6-A lack luster field of maidens.

__________
David-LV

[MaTH716]

No set up, just maybe the morning line was a tad high.


He went off as the 5th choice.
5 (favorite)-he was running back in Madien Specials while going to the turf for the first time.
3 (2nd choice)-4 out of his 5 last works were bullets, but he never hit the board before and was trying the weeds also for the first time.
8 (3rd choice)-Another first time turf horse, coming off a layoff. He seemed to be the lone closer in a race that looked like it had enough speed in it that it could melt down late.
6 (4th choice) Very well bred horse that should like the turf, but most likely going long.

The horse definitely fit. I just wish I was smarter to include him on my pick 4. It seemed to be a very wide open field and cases could be made for almost every horse. I do have to admit that I thought there was going to be a little more pressure early on. But he was the speed of the speed and anything close to his last race should have and did result in a win.

[cj]

This is how I had the race rated on my figures:

HOL 05/09/2010 R8 4:42 6.0f Turf 126 6/0 Md Sp Wt 41k 3+

2 Fionnaur 8-1 X1 56/ 60 | 44 70 55 | 58 83 77 34 67
1 Image and Likeness 15-1 X6 87/ 42 79 55 36 53 44 : 27
1A Wisest Cat 15-1 X0 61/ 79 : 73 74 47
3 Cragmont 7-2 X3 78/ 61 66 : 73 76
4 Take a Yard 8-1 1st x/ x
5 The Full Lavino 3-1 E3 66/ 73 69 70 59
6 Causeithertz 5-1 1st x/ x
7 Stormy Ambition 20-1 X4 71/ 15 35 | 37
8 Blazing 5-2 S2 80/ 69 : 72 83

[Igeteven]

No set up, just maybe the morning line was a tad high.


He went off as the 5th choice.
5 (favorite)-he was running back in Madien Specials while going to the turf for the first time.
3 (2nd choice)-4 out of his 5 last works were bullets, but he never hit the board before and was trying the weeds also for the first time.
8 (3rd choice)-Another first time turf horse, coming off a layoff. He seemed to be the lone closer in a race that looked like it had enough speed in it that it could melt down late.
6 (4th choice) Very well bred horse that should like the turf, but most likely going long.

The horse definitely fit. I just wish I was smarter to include him on my pick 4. It seemed to be a very wide open field and cases could be made for almost every horse. I do have to admit that I thought there was going to be a little more pressure early on. But he was the speed of the speed and anything close to his last race should have and did result in a win.

I think you are right, the morning line was too high, :ThmbUp:

[johnhannibalsmith]

I think you are right, the morning line was too high, :ThmbUp:

Lester, please put this experience in your handicapping hat. A horse like that is the value you are looking for. Definitely figured, morning line too high. Fall in love with those opportunities, don't get all sour about a horse that figured at a big price actually winning.

[Ejmenz]

The only horses with higher beyers on the turf were coming off layoffs, and they're numbers were just slightly better.

The Beyers par was 84 I think, but the field showed a 65-70 would win and it did, I'm guessing that horse ran a 69, just a guess with no idea of the final time.

[rwwupl]

The TVG commentators said he was 119-1 against Maiden claimers(MC $25,000) and had never hit the board. I think he had about 8 races without hitting the board in maiden claiming company.

He stepped up in class to MSW and listed at 15-1, and had support from enough wagering to go off at 8-1

Without knowing more...it did appear unusual, and you might need more than a racing form to find him.

[MaTH716]

The TVG commentators said he was 119-1 against Maiden claimers(MC $25,000) and had never hit the board. I think he had about 8 races without hitting the board in maiden claiming company.

He stepped up in class to MSW and listed at 15-1, and had support from enough wagering to go off at 8-1

Without knowing more...it did appear unusual, and you might need more than a racing form to find him.

Maybe he didn't appreciate the poly. He's a horse that wants to be in front and ran ridiculously fast quarters in those first few starts. His speed stretched out a bit last time on the hill. This was his 2nd start on the grass in a race where the rest of the field was subject. Looking back at it now 8-1 was a gift, I wish I was smart enough to use him. But then again hindsight is 20/20.

[johnhannibalsmith]

The TVG commentators said ...

This right here should have steered you towards him.

[rwwupl]

This right here should have steered you towards him.


Ha ha ha... That comment was made after the race ($119-1) about a previous race.

If you handicap on the basis of what the T.V. commentators say, you will bet almost every horse in the race. If you only get your information from the tote board,I think you will miss a lot of appropriate facts.

I presume you had the horse... was there anything in the past performance that gave you a clue, or do you specialize in reading between the lines, or hunches?

[johnhannibalsmith]

Ha ha ha... That comment was made after the race ($119-1) about a previous race.

If you handicap on the basis of what the T.V. commentators say, you will bet almost every horse in the race. If you only get your information from the tote board,I think you will miss a lot of appropriate facts.

I presume you had the horse... was there anything in the past performance that gave you a clue, or do you specialize in reading between the lines, or hunches?

I have this thing that I do when I watch the Schrupp Show from California where if I'm not betting the races and just watching, I make heads up bets with whoever is around sans PPs. I almost always win. I simply focus on the horse that the trio seems to uniformly dismiss... alright, I'm joking a little... a little...

Actually, I don't bet California anymore but very rarely. But, I did have the form that day and considered playing the 2yo race earlier in the card. When I saw Lester's post, I went back and looked at the race and couldn't understand why anyone would be surprised by any horse that won that race. It was a terrible field for the level. The "big Beyer" standout whom I presume was the favorite wasn't much; made a late run in his best race at the level, which always turns people on.

The horse that did win had one trip over the grass, his most recent, and ran fast enough for a half to make the lead. If he made the lead again, it probably spelled doom for nearly every other junker in the race that hadn't shown a big affinity for passing horses. Sure, that left the closer, the likely favorite, but this wasn't a horse that a guy would like to bet his bankroll on at a short price.

Another poster mentioned the horse had good speed and probably legitimately improved just by getting off of the polyester track. I tend to agree considering that most of the turkeys in that race weren't much more than what he likely had been running against while on the surface that he seemed to like less.

Nah, he was definitely not a stand out and even if California wasn't banished from my repertoire, I would have avoided the race in all likelihood. If I did play it, I probably wouldn't have been smart enough to realize that the horse was a good play in the context of the field. But since Lester was asking for people to go back and look at the PPs and explain to him how it could have possibly run that way, using the old retrospective hindsight and looking at my form - the horse seems totally plausible under the circumstances.

[rwwupl]

But since Lester was asking for people to go back and look at the PPs and explain to him how it could have possibly run that way, using the old retrospective hindsight and looking at my form - the horse seems totally plausible under the circumstances


Thanks for being honest. I too find the winners to be a plausible bet after the race quite often. I have trouble with the same logic before the race. ;)

[Nitro]

The horse # 1, that won should have gone at 30 to 1 odds, morning line was 15, drop to 8

A claimer going up in class to maidens special weight, the tote board showed something was wrong.

The horse won by day light.

Can anyone handicap the race and explain why he ran like the wind ?
I seems to me that you've made a couple of erroneous assumptions here. Particularly stating that, "the tote board showed something was wrong." Actually the tote board was dead on! It told anyone who was watching that obviously some people knew exactly what the planned intentions for this horse were. Do you have any idea how much money it takes to drive an entry's odds down to ½ of its Morning Line at a track like Hollywood Park?

The other assumption you're making is that some sort of handicapping technique will always explain why a horse runs real good (or even so bad). Handicapping only looks at the past. The handicapper tries to make an assumption about how this horse or that might run based on what he reads or maybe what he sees. It may not always be the best information or the most current.

joemc44 had it!

http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/showthread.php?t=70070
That was a very nice pick, especially since it was made long before the betting on the race started. I had it too, but not as a single choice. I was fortunate enough to hit a nice exotic bet, thanks to someone (http://www.ebettorsedge.com/forum/forum_posts.asp?TID=137&title=hollywood--live--sun-5-9--mothers-day-special) I know who uses the tote board exclusively for his selections. I've come to realize that the value of the almighty betting dollar can be more often then not a very strong indicator of a stable's intentions. I personally think that this type of information can reveal things that you just can’t find in the past performances.

Keep your eyes on that board and good luck!

[toussaud]

I sat there nad looked at them in the post parade, and I said I like the 1 and the 5.. there is really no erason for me to not play the 1...and I hate CSR as a jockey, he will blow it by going wide.. but i like the 5 a little more than the 1..

and low and behold... CSR blew the race by going too wide.

I think the 5 was the better horse in the race, the 1 got the better trip and cashed. horrid ride by CSR

[dylbert]

This is how I had the race rated on my figures:

HOL 05/09/2010 R8 4:42 6.0f Turf 126 6/0 Md Sp Wt 41k 3+

2 Fionnaur 8-1 X1 56/ 60 | 44 70 55 | 58 83 77 34 67
1 Image and Likeness 15-1 X6 87/ 42 79 55 36 53 44 : 27
1A Wisest Cat 15-1 X0 61/ 79 : 73 74 47
3 Cragmont 7-2 X3 78/ 61 66 : 73 76
4 Take a Yard 8-1 1st x/ x
5 The Full Lavino 3-1 E3 66/ 73 69 70 59
6 Causeithertz 5-1 1st x/ x
7 Stormy Ambition 20-1 X4 71/ 15 35 | 37
8 Blazing 5-2 S2 80/ 69 : 72 83
Had it! Signed, Happy CJ customer...

[6furlongs]

Gapfire.com figures had that horse picked on top.

[Igeteven]

I seems to me that you've made a couple of erroneous assumptions here. Particularly stating that, "the tote board showed something was wrong." Actually the tote board was dead on! It told anyone who was watching that obviously some people knew exactly what the planned intentions for this horse were. Do you have any idea how much money it takes to drive an entry's odds down to ½ of its Morning Line at a track like Hollywood Park?

The other assumption you're making is that some sort of handicapping technique will always explain why a horse runs real good (or even so bad). Handicapping only looks at the past. The handicapper tries to make an assumption about how this horse or that might run based on what he reads or maybe what he sees. It may not always be the best information or the most current.


That was a very nice pick, especially since it was made long before the betting on the race started. I had it too, but not as a single choice. I was fortunate enough to hit a nice exotic bet, thanks to someone (http://www.ebettorsedge.com/forum/forum_posts.asp?TID=137&title=hollywood--live--sun-5-9--mothers-day-special) I know who uses the tote board exclusively for his selections. I've come to realize that the value of the almighty betting dollar can be more often then not a very strong indicator of a stable's intentions. I personally think that this type of information can reveal things that you just can’t find in the past performances.

Keep your eyes on that board and good luck!

Lost my pick , had a few bucks on the horse when I notice him when he drop to 8-1,

Again, 3 out of 4 for the pick 4. :(