sartin progarms

[shanta]

i am a new member and this is my first post! does any one out there know the health of doc sartin? i have been away for a while and know that he was a very sick man last year and have not been able to find out about his current health condition.any info would be greatly appreciated!! also would love some feed back from people using val 2 and what they think its strong points and weak points are! in my limited use i am finding the gulfstream turf speed ratings are crazy high and are almost unusable! does any one else see this too? thanx

[Lefty]

PRN Jly issue gave this no. to inquire about Doc sartin 909-849-4498
I admit I have been busy and have not called.
Val11 Haven't used mine long time but I don't like the oddsline: generates too mant so-called overlays.
I like the other readouts early late etc. Lottsa good readouts just ain't crazy about the oddsline and I wished it used TSN Procaps files. guess you can't have everything.

[Tom]

There a few old Sartinistas hanging out here.
I went as far as Thoromation and Kgen. DC Pars gave me headaches <G>.
Did you ever get to seminar at Saratoga or Baltimore? MAybe we met if you did.
You'll like this board-lots of good people here.

[shanta]

HI TOM! THANX FOR THE WELCOME TO THE SITE! I HAVE NOT ATTENDED ANY OF DOCS SEMINARS SO WE HAVENT HAD THE CHANCE TO MEET. IVE BEEN A STUDENT OF DOCS FOR 8 YEARS AND WITH HIS NEWER PROGRAMS YOU DONT MODEL PROFILE OR ANYTHING LIKE THEY USED TO DO! ILL KEEP IN TOUCH TOM!
THANX AGAIN FOR THE SHOUT OUT!!!!!!! RICHIE

[DJofSD]

shanta,

RE the out of whack turf ratings: most/all the so called energy based programs had a feature called alternate adjustment which would equalize all pacelines. While I never used or even attempted to master the 2-adjust feature, I know people who did master it and use it successfully.

Also, some programs have a manual 3-adjust which would allow you to alter individual pace lines. I'm not sure if any one ever used this option correctly let alone with any success.

My own personal approach to Sartins programs and funny looking numbers - either pass the race or find some other tool/angle to get an edge over the masses.

DJofSD

[shanta]

HI DJ! THANX FOR THE INFO. I USE DOCS NEWEST PROGRAM VALIDATOR 2 IN WHICH AFTER DOWNLOADING ALL THE LINES ARE EQUALIZED AND ADJUSTED. THERE IS NO MANUAL ADJUSTMENT OPTION WITH THIS PROGRAM. WHAT YOU SAID ABOUT USING SOME COMMON SENSE WHEN THE NUMBERS LOOK OUT OF WHACK AND EITHER PASS THE RACE OR LOOK FOR OTHER NON PROGRAM FACTORS HAVE BEEN REPEATED BY OTHERS! THANX FOR THE ADVICE! :eek:

[delayjf]

This was one area that always puzzled me. I used his Match-Up II program which also had a two adjust option. The only time I would consider using it was with shippers and when there was other evidense that one race equaled another ie simular beyers.

I don't unstand how Doc calculated his adjustments, but Doc did not use a track varient in my program. It was manual entry which never asked for a varient or class entry. As long as you were comparing for example Hol pace lines to Hol pacelines, you could get away with not using a varient to a certain degree. IMHO California track surfaces don't change as much as east coast tracks. I think this is especially true of California turf tracks were I had the most success with the program.

DJof SD, up for a little Delmar action. Any word when Phil might come down?

[shanta]

hi delay! yes i agree that the program is very good on the so cal turf! im in new york and really dont play so cal that much but in the 3 days ive played del mar the results have been good. the newer programs have taken the adjustments and track variants out of the picture. most important thing is pace line selection as always with a look at horses form cycle! thanx for post!:)

[delayjf]

Shanta,

Sartins new programs takes downloads, so it may use the varients/ adjustments that come with the PP file. My old program was purely manual inputs. If you like the Sartin methodology, take a look at Ken Massa's website below or Bob Purdy's site as well. For something more complicated checkout the HSH website.
They all use the varients produced by Jim Cramer, who to my knowledge goes to unbelievable lengths (no pun) to insure there accuracy. You can access the above websites at the site below. But, if your satified with what you got, don't fix it if it ain't broke. Good Luck.

www.horsedata.com

[shanta]

thnax delay! i will check out the site! i am familiar with bob purdys site. it is basically the tpr numbers based on the book "pace makes the race" by hambleton ,pizzola, schmidt.

i see you live in virginia! did you get a chance to play colonial downs when they were open?? i couldnt access that track but saw they had some great turf racing there for like 6 weeks!!

[delayjf]

Actually, I'm in California right now. But I have seen the track and it has an outstanding turf track. Only problem is the lack of good quality turf runners. It's basically the Maryland circuit, that is what hasn't shipped to Delaware, Monmouth or NY. Word is that quality is improving.

[DJofSD]

Jeff,
shanta,

I believe the reason why Doc's programs never asked for any variant or adjustment along those lines is because in the energy based programs you didn't need that correction. The program alters each paceline based upon the pace of the race derived from the paceline data. If you want to know how much the adjustment is for each horse, look at the raw data and the adjusted data. The difference is the adjustment - no need to make a change to a change.

I just got off the phone with Phil. He's looking at a road trip for the Pacific Classic.

Your still in SoCal?

DJofSD

[Tom]

If your program has the "3" adjustment, you can enter your own variant. I think he recommended using .17 or .15?? for each point of DRF variant.
My preference was to run multiple lines through K-Gen, then pick ones similar in shape to the horse's normal curve and then use the 2 adjust. As long as the lines were not aberent, the 2 worked pretty good.

[David McKenzie]

Tom,

1) Automatic adjustment
2) Alternate adjustment
3) Manual adjustment

The #2 adjustment basically picked the horse with the closest to wire-to-wire paceline, if memory serves. It wasn't too effective at predicting winners for today's race (in my opinion).

I wish I had back a few hundred of the hours I spent creating my own adjustments for #3. All that work...*sigh*

For turf, the raw SP graph was pretty good on the "new" K-GEN. I forget which version that one was, but I imagine you remember how much better it was than the "old" K-GEN.

[delayjf]

I didn't mean to imply that the Sartin adjustments were worthless but only I found that they were best applied locally. Take a look at horses running on the turf at Fairgroaunds and then at any California track. Rarely will you see the final 3/16s of a 1/16 turf race at FG run under 31 seconds, while at most Cal tracks 29 and change is not that uncommon. My point is that different tracks have different speeds (energy demands). Without adjusting for that, seems to me your comparing apples to oranges.

The other adjustment I learned not to trust was the distance adjustment when forced to use a sprint line for a route race. Every sprinter stretching out looked like Secretariat and vise versa. Even when comparing Socal tracks, the speed can vary.

I learned to attempt to use pacelines with as much in common as possible (distance, track) often I'd look at more than one to see how they compared.

Perhaps others had more luck appling the Sartin Adjustments to shippers, love to hear how you did it.

DJ of SD still here, been out to Delmar lately?

[David McKenzie]

Originally posted by delayjf
Perhaps others had more luck appling the Sartin Adjustments to shippers, love to hear how you did it.

Variant Energy is the key.

Rather than rely on memory, I scrounged up an old Factor Analysis manual.

Using an old AQI 6F model for illustration, comparing seven days of True Speed vs. Variant Rating (I assume you're at an advanced level and understand what I'm talking about).


Per Point of DRF Variant:
21-25 = 0.08
21-31 = 0.11
10-17 = 0.26
10-31 = 0.11
17-25 = 0.02
10-25 = 0.09
25-31 = 0.14


Result: Average Difference per DRF variant = 0.106

---

Track to Track variants work the same way. Remember, they are
not based on Final Time alone, but rather the pace of the race times (not the winner's times -- pace of the winning horse -- again, I assume you know what I'm talking about).

---

To illustrate, calculate the daily variant for seven races at SA 6F. Toss out the highest. Toss out the lowest. Get a mean average for those five races. It might look something like this:

SA Ave 16-17 = 55.56 Ave per point of Variant = 0.11

---

Now, when you want to compare a horse that's shipping from SA 6F to AQI 6F you make the adjustment:

0.11 - 0.106 = 0.004

---

Or, you can do it a much simpler way if you're not dealing with shippers and assume 0.08 per point of daily variant difference for a DRF daily variant of 17.

---

Two suggestions:

1) Use Claiming Races only for comparison
2) When rating a horse from one track against another, apply the variant of the track that the horse is COMING FROM.

That way you won't get confused and you'll always do it the same way.

[shanta]

hi david are you talking about "factor evaluator" manual or program?? im familiar with some of docs old programs . this all sounds like SUCH a tremendous amount of work! please let me know if its fac. evaluator! thanx

[David McKenzie]

Shanta,

I'm not familiar with "factor evaluator."I was talking about making a variant energy adjustment to compare shippers via the manual adjustment for K-GEN, Energy, Thoromation and older Sartin programs.

And, yes, you're right. It was a lot of work. Most people lacked the knowledge, skill or determination to make those programs crank out profits. Those of us that did put forth the effort were commensurately rewarded. It was well worth the time and effort.

[shanta]

THANX FOR RESPONDING! YES DOCS OLDER PROGRAMS REQUIRED A HUGE AMOUNT OF ADJUSTING AND FINE TUNING! BUT YOU ARE RIGHT THE SCORES THAT WERE MADE BY SOME AND THE WINNING MUTUALS SET DOCS WORK APART FROM THE REST OF THE CROWD! I SEE THAT YOU HAVE A CON. ADDRESS DAVE I LIVE IN LOWER WESTCHESTER AND GO UP TO SPORTS HAVEN SOMETIMES UP ON EXIT 44 ON THE CONN. TURNPIKE! DO YOU EVER HEAD UP THERE?? IF SO MAYBE I COULD TAKE A RIDE UP THERE FOR A DAY AND WE COULD MEET AND SAY HI! LET ME KNOW OK?? RICHIE :)

[David McKenzie]

Originally posted by shanta
I SEE THAT YOU HAVE A CON. ADDRESS DAVE I LIVE IN LOWER WESTCHESTER AND GO UP TO SPORTS HAVEN SOMETIMES UP ON EXIT 44 ON THE CONN. TURNPIKE! DO YOU EVER HEAD UP THERE?? IF SO MAYBE I COULD TAKE A RIDE UP THERE FOR A DAY AND WE COULD MEET AND SAY HI! LET ME KNOW OK?? RICHIE :)

Hi Richie,

We usually go up to Shoreline Star in Bridgeport on Wednesdays. They have a semi-private dining room with reserved tables (which keeps the riff-raff out), wonderful service and excellent cuisine (incredibly underpriced). I much prefer this dining room to Sports Haven or Yonkers.

This summer I'm travelling quite a bit. With luck I'll be able to squeeze in a trip to Saratoga and join the festivites with the rest of the P.A. crowd, but other than that I'll won't be heading to the simulcast center prior to mid-September. After that I'd be happy to get together and root home some winners together. :)

[shanta]

HI DAVE YES I KNOW EXACTLY THE ROOM IN SHORELINE STAR YOU ARE TALKING ABOUT!!!!!!!!! THANX I WOULD LOVE TO TAKE A RIDE UP THERE ONE DAY TO SAY HI!!!!! I WENT THERE WITH A FRIEND LAST YEAR. HE KNEW NOTHING ABOUT THE HORSES OR THE DOGS AND PROCEEDED TO HIT 2 DOG RACES IN A ROW FOR LIKE 500 BEANS!!!!!! AND THAT NIGHT I WALKED OUT LOOKING FOR TOLL MONEY!!!!!!!! PANIC! ANYWAY LOOK FORWARD TO MEETING YOU ENJOY YOUR TRIPS THIS SUMMER
RICHIE :cool:

[andicap]

Originally posted by shanta
THANX FOR RESPONDING! YES DOCS OLDER PROGRAMS REQUIRED A HUGE AMOUNT OF ADJUSTING AND FINE TUNING! BUT YOU ARE RIGHT THE SCORES THAT WERE MADE BY SOME AND THE WINNING MUTUALS SET DOCS WORK APART FROM THE REST OF THE CROWD! I SEE THAT YOU HAVE A CON. ADDRESS DAVE I LIVE IN LOWER WESTCHESTER AND GO UP TO SPORTS HAVEN SOMETIMES UP ON EXIT 44 ON THE CONN. TURNPIKE! DO YOU EVER HEAD UP THERE?? IF SO MAYBE I COULD TAKE A RIDE UP THERE FOR A DAY AND WE COULD MEET AND SAY HI! LET ME KNOW OK?? RICHIE :)

Before I had a daughter I used to go to Bridgeport all the time -- had been going to Sports Haven too, but Bridgeport was a shorter ride and the restaurant there is OK. Lots of TVs and i went with someone who knew the hostess so I always got a good table. I haven't seen him in about 5 years so I don't know if he goes anymore.

When I went to Sports Haven, I went with a guy who bet a lot of money so they would give the 3 of us a private room up top with our own SAM. That was cool.

I never liked Yonkers either although it was so close I would sit in the restuarent on occasion with a private TV. I find it much harder tho to change the channels than to watch a bunch of TVs on the wall.

What sucks about living in Westchester is that we don't get the OTB channel at home. I finally got a dish so I do get TVG, but if you're betting NYRA the OTB channel gives you more info. When I worked on Long Island and had cable TV in my office I would watch the channel sometimes and see the delightful Kelly G.

I work in NYC now and still have cable in my office but its a crappy 30-channel feed that doesn't even get ESPN, let alone the OTB channel. I can however look at all the Nickelodeon, TLC, and Weather Channel I want.

[shanta]

HI ANDI I LIVE IN THE SAME TOWN AS YOU IAM DOWN BY GLENN ISLAND ON SHORE ROAD!!!!!!!!!! SMALL WORLD! YOU ARE RIGHT ABOUT BEING IN WESTCHESTER I CANT GET THE OTB CHANNELS AND WHERE I LIVE THERE ARE TOO MANY TREEES SO I CANT GET THE TVG SIGNAL MY BUDDY OUT IN JERSEY HAS TVG AND IT IS GREAT WE BET AND WATCH RIGHT FROM HIS LIVING ROOM! AS FAR AS YONKERS YOU ARE RIGHT ITS KIND OF RUN DOWN AND DARK BUT I hear they are closing for 3 months starting sept 1st to install the slots EVER BEEN TO GREASY NICKS?? I LIVE 1 BLOCK FROM THERE ANDI?? PEACE
RICHIE

[DJofSD]

One individual I know (Jeff, I'm talking about Bob R.) can do amazing things with the alternate adjustment in the original ENERGY! program. He could use it to handicap the marthon races - dirt and turf - and get the winner.

His best 'trick' was handicapping the Fairplex meeting. Though I don't think he ever described it this way, I'd describe it like shooting fish in a barrel. I think FPX is his best meeting any way you could cut it.

So, as has already been stated, if you put in the time and do the research, the 2-adjustment can reward you for the time and effort put in. But isn't that true of most aspects of life?

DJofSD

P.S. Jeff, you'd think that being as close to DMR as I am I'd be there every racing day. Unfortunately, I'm not.

P.P.S. Saw the 'biscuit movie - highly recommend it. If you're a conservative, you'll love it. If you're not then you can still enjoy the horsey aspect of the movie.

[David McKenzie]

[QUOTE]Originally posted by andicap

When I went to Sports Haven...

Andy, we went to New Haven every Sunday for years. Connecticut OTB wasn’t open on Sundays. So, the choice was either Yonkers, New York City or Teletrack. OTB closed early during the week. So, we’d end up at Yonkers most nights anyway. We had our fill of Yonkers during the week, which left New York or Teletrack for our Sunday excursions. Teletrack was the generally the choice unless Belmont was open. I’d rather go to Sports Haven than Aqueduct, but that’s my preference. The “group” generally preferred Teletrack anyway. Funny, but back in those days there always seemed to be a covey of us crazies attending the races. It’s not that way now, probably due to the Internet.

One year our motley crew rented the private room upstairs for Breeder’s Cup day. I’ll never forget that day. It was the first year they initiated the national Pick 7 for the BC. My friend, Ronny, hit 6 of 7 many times for a handsome payoff! After he picked up the tab for all of us I think he might have even had some money left. <G>

... I went with a guy who bet a lot of money so they would give the 3 of us a private room up top with our own SAM. That was cool.

They have a manned window up there now for one person and one person only. I know that person by sight, but I don’t know his name, nor have I talked to him. I wonder if that’s your Mr. Big.

I never liked Yonkers either although it was so close I would sit in the restuarent on occasion with a private TV. I find it much harder tho to change the channels than to watch a bunch of TVs on the wall.

I can’t tell you the hours I’ve spent at Yonkers. The restaurant was tolerable providing you slide the maitre d’ a finski to get a decent seat, but I never liked those little table monitors either. They’re fine for playing one track, but didn’t that go out with the Neanderthals? Give me those big mama jamama screens every time, thank you. I’ve got more to be concerned about than remembering which channel is which. Nor, do I want to be bothered with changing them repeatedly.

All this typing almost makes me thirsty for a cup of Big Red Water (the operative word being “almost.” Hehe).

Ah well, hopefully next month that will become a reality and we can all swap some stories at the spa. :)

[Dave Schwartz]

DJofSD,

You said, "Saw the 'biscuit movie - highly recommend it. If you're a conservative, you'll love it. If you're not then you can still enjoy the horsey aspect of the movie"

I don't understand what you mean. Could you explain?

Why would a l-l-l-l... non-consertvative not like this movie?


Dave

PS: Liberals, please forgive my attempt at humor. It's really a poke at myself, if you think about it.

[Amazin]

Re:Sartin AdJ

I don't know anything about Sartin's computer program,but based on his book I incorporated his method of getting total pace into my own computer program.It's a big key in my program.

The sartin figure I get from my program is adjusted by track variant.Before the pace line is "Sartinized",it gets adjusted by the track variant.Then it get's the Sartin method applied to that adjusted paceline.Quite simple and works well.I don't use nor recommend the Sartin method for turf racing.

[Lefty]

In TPR FFR works pretty well for Turf. In other prgms like the Pace Launcher Series LPR and HE good turf indicators.

[delayjf]

Dave,

Thanks for the reply, that was the FIRST time I've heard anyone describe how to manually adjust within those programs. I attended a few seminars and nothing like you just described was ever mentioned.

Not sure I understand the entire procedure you presented, but I do get the gest of what you printed. But boy isn't that a lot of work. I'll bet your glad you can just turn the varient thing over to Jim Cramer.

DJofSD,
Saw the movie last week, my only complaint was while listening to the advertisements on TV, the background music used was the same music from the soundtrack of the movie "Rudy". I've had that soundtrack for years and love it, It would have been perfect for the movie, I always thought the music captured the drama of a horseracing perfectly, but alas it was not used in the film. As much as I loved the movie, wish I didn't already know the ending.

[DJofSD]

Dave,

Sorry for the delayed response.

The jab was in part a gut level response to a number of references to the movie I have read primarily in the LA Times. Bias was shown by those authors. And always a negative review or opinion of the movie. One article written by a sports columnist even went as far saying the horse could not have done what he did w/o being administered drugs on a regular basis.

DJofSD

[andicap]

David,
Unfortunately my whale commited suicide about 5 years ago. Some members of the old Prodigy board would have remembered him. I won't give his name but his initials were MS.

I used to go with my dad all the time in the early and late 80s. We sat in the restaurant, always got the same table since he went a lot and knew the hostess. We saw a lot of regulars around there. I used to see Toby Moffett in there all the time -- after he was out of politics.

(If you sat in the restaurant, do you remember Pat the hostess?)

[Secretariat]

Just talked with the Sartin office today. Seems they will be closing their door soon. Shane is doing other things, and Doc no longer is really able to come into the office.

Apparently, they still sell Validator 3 which I am told does work in XP, although it is limited to Trackmaster users.

The lady told me tech support will continue until March of 2004 and then that's it.

Kind of sad. Whether you liked the Doc or not, he did make an impact.

[Dave Schwartz]

Secretariat,

"Doc" must be given the proper credit. He was a pioneer; an original thinker of the first magnitude.

And get this -

I became a winner because of his work.

(Okay, maybe not his software, but his IDEAS.)

I would assume that many of the well-known world beaters have that in common (though they may not admit it).


And a bigger showman does not exist in our handicapping world.


Personally, I wish him well.


Regards to all,
Dave Schwartz

[Lefty]

I met the Doc on 3 occasions, here in Vegas, liked him very much. Bght a lot of his prgms and had my ups and dns(just like I do w/all prgms)but like Dave and others have said, Doc was an orig. thinker and just to prove it, most software on the mkt today has some of his ideas imbedded in them.
Good luck and better health, Doc.

[Myhorse1_X]

To All:

I have an original "The Match up" written by Howard G. Sartin, PhD, and Jim Bradshaw, Edited by Dick Schmidt printed in May, 1988.
Also, I have a manual for Q-Scan by Jim Bradshaw.

If anyone wants them, let me know. I am sure we can settle on a fair price. Anyone who is an Inland Empire Institute fan it would be a collector's item. I had to put a new cover on the Match up because the original red one was just worn out so I made a new binder for it with a photo copy of the original cover.

MyHorse1

[shanta]

I AGREE WITH WHAT DAVE SAID ABOUT DOC BEING AN ORIGINAL THINKER AND THAT ALMOST ALL OF THE "CURRENT" PROGRAMS OUT THERE TODAY HAVE SOME OF HIS FORMULAS AND READOUTS IMBEDDED IN THEM."HATS" OFF TO JULIE FINK,HUEY MAHL AND DOC SARTIN- ORIGINALS "ALL" !!!!!!!!

:)