One of racings biggest misconceptions

[cees with dees]

Closers stretching out further.
This subject came up in conversation the other day.
The problem with this illusion is, they don't tack on distance after the wire. It's at the start. The late runner is going to make his move at likely the same point in the race but has to run further before using the late kick which can minimize it significantly. And if he tries to move earlier, again, the closing punch gets compromised.
How many times have we heard:"Two more jumps and he would have gotten there".?
On the flip side of this coin is the tiring speed going longer.
It would seem logical that if a horse gets tired at 6 furlongs, going longer would only hurt. Right?? No!
When a speed horse goes longer he is likely to get an easier lead therefore having much more in the tank in the sprint home.
This is particularly relevant with dirt speed horses switching to grass where their dirt speed almost always holds up better.
Haven't figured it out yet as to why but have been told things like ""Turf is a horses natural surface so they are more comfortable on it."
This has been a particularly profitable angle for me mainly because people just can't get past tiring speedsters stretching out.
Great topic. Lets hear some thoughts.
Ben

[Overlay]

With regard to distance changes, statistics have shown for some time that sprinters stretching out are better risks than routers dropping back.

For example, in formulating his speed points based on statistical running style data, Quirin allowed for sprinters stretching out to get credit for previous sprints in which they were within six lengths of the lead at the first call (rather than the two lengths associated with going from sprint to sprint).

Routers dropping back to a sprint, by contrast, could not earn any speed points for previous routes. The best that they could do was to earn a "bye" (i.e., have the race disregarded for calculation purposes) if they were within one length of the leader at the first call of the previous route. Any other showing in a previous route race counted against the horse, and earned zero speed points.

With respect to finishing position, last-race sprinters entered in a route today had an overall impact value of .92, compared with .56 for last-race routers entered in a sprint (which dropped to .42 if the horse had not contested the early lead in the route race).

[ranchwest]

Horses change leads at the same points, no matter what the distance. I think that explains why closers often fail to improve when stretching out. They close on lead changes and they're still the same distance from the finish line when they change leads.

[kenwoodall2]

I would like to hear in relation to this discussion, what difference switching tracks to a longer or shorter stretch makes to speed or closers. Something I never thought about.

[Hanover1]

:ThmbDown: They can hold/change leads on command, and horses often run opposite to what we hold as gospel. Late closers generally make the move when asked, and not when the horse decides.........complicate a simple situation with theory again?

[andicap]

I have found that one of the premises here -- an early speed sprinter stretching out getting an easier pace -- is not true at 7f since the pace doesn't tend to slow appreciably at that distance. Going from 1 to 2 turns is when this seems to happen.

:10:

[JPinMaryland]

Borrego, Steppenwolfer, Jazil, Circular Quay, Sweet Northern Saint are some that come to my mind. But of the lot, I beleive Borrego, Jazil and CIrcular Quay eventually won G1s at a distance.

[Thomas Roulston]

I would like to hear in relation to this discussion, what difference switching tracks to a longer or shorter stretch makes to speed or closers. Something I never thought about.


Of course I'm all in favor of longer stretches.

1/4 mile from last turn to finish should be the standard.