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Giving a database a public try here. DelMar should be a good tough test.
Opening Day
Pace Plays: Play 5-2 or up Longshot Pace 10-1 or up (a real test)
Others: 6-1 or up Trainer: 4-1 or up
Race 2:
Pace: Kissing Girl
Other: Introducer-1 Vanos Nina-2
Race 4:
Other: Simply Truth
Race 5:
Longshot Pace: Obermeister
Race 7:
Longshot Pace: Plum Good Day
Trainer: LeMans
Exacta with 10 on top as saver
Race 8:
Pace: Royal Robe
Until tomorrow:
Welcome to the board Niko & Good Luck !!!
ZAFONIC
Thanks,
I'll probably need it. This is a tough game and it seems like the worst can happen when you make your selections or betting public. My friends will swear I'm the worst handicapper and never make money. The social aspects tend not to mix well for me with proper betting. Bet too many races having a good time over a few beers and tend to miss the little stuff. All my best days have been by myself (betting that is...don't go any where else) or one other fairly serious player at the track.
Thanks for the welcome.
Skanoochies
07-23-2003, 01:54 PM
Welcome and good luck. Always good to see fresh ideas.
Skanoochies.:)
Ok, a poor start so far. Bound for freedom was the 2nd highest horse last race but other than that didn't gualify. I'm learning to look at one top 2 last race if 10-1 or up but no data so far.
7-24
6th
Pace goldn KK
Other Entice Me
7th
Other Runaway Dancer
May be hurt by pace as Raise Expectations is the only early
Ok, a great day today. Forgot to put the 10 in the 6th as a pace play but I caught it while betting. Luckily as won and helped in a nice pick 3.
Not a lot tomorrow. Too bad with big pick 6
Del Mar 7-25
1st
Trainer: The Borg Queen
2nd
Pace: Conquer the Galaxy
6th
Trainer: Reel em' in
Other?: Bonaguil
2 Trainer wins but odds too low to count so 1 loss in books that had ? next to it
Saturday the 26th
1st
Longshot Pace : Devils Alito
4th:
Pace: Slew Summer
Other: Dead Centre
5th:
Pace: Commanders Flag
Pace: Marshall Rooster
6th:
Longshot Pace: No Armistice
Pace: Beau's Town
Longshot pace, my test is 0-4. The tried and true are showing a profit.. How did the people get Reefs Dancer in 2nd at 38-1?? Competitve races again tomorrow.
Sunday 7-27
1st Close call but
Pace: Apline Singer
5th:
Longshot Pace: Makam,
6th:
Pace: Bartock's Blithe Wrong running style but qualifies
7th:
Other: Honey Penny
Pace: Siphon Honey
plainolebill
07-27-2003, 05:30 AM
Looking back at the PPs and just for conversational purposes. Reef Diver: (1)Owner - Gary Tanaka has three horses in for Saturday (two wins and a 2nd) including Golden Apples. He's sure to be present to watch his champion mare run, does he wants to be embarassed by one of his horses running around the track dead last? Why is this horse entered here? Tanaka has plenty of money and good horses, but they haven't given up on this one yet. (2) Julie Krone is riding. (3) He has a great Tomlison for the mile, and may be best suited to this distance. (4) Last race wasn't too bad (last quarter 23 4/5) and it was against a much tougher bunch than this, maybe Cecil's got him figured out. (5) Rest of the cast is suspect. Maybe worth dropping a few bucks on at 38/1.
I think you hit it with the last 2 points you made. Off the last race he only needed to improve a bit, was probably a better race than it looks on paper, made a move in fast half of race and finished well against tougher company and I think Cecil must've figured out something to help the horse improve just enough. Off the Bris numbers the horse equaled his top rating last which is a good sign for a improved race and was only a couple lengths slower in his last race than others. Also, they put the horse in a grade II first time in the states.. Either they thought a lof of the horse or the owner wanted to be in the race.
Congrats any one who put it all together with real money
Del Mar Monday 7-28
2 Qualifiers in the first but the pace doesn't help either so I won't count in the final results but will list them here in case I'm overhandicapping
Other: Nates Colony
Pace: Hotel Hall
Now for the qualifying plays:
4th:
Other: Winning Stripes
5th:
Pace: Dance for Fun
6th:
Pace: Que Bonita
Pace: Alices Silver Lady
Results for first week
Testing Longshot Pace: 0-5 Bet $10 Return $0
Trainer: 0-1 2 winners but below odds cut-off
Pace: 2-12 Bet $24 Return: $26.40
Other: 2-7 Bet $14 Return: $36.40
The pace plays are below what I'd expect. We'll see how next week goes.
Still not bad if you eliminate the longshot plays
Don't know how many of these I'll bet but I'll list them all. After hardly any trainer plays quite a few showed up today
1st:
Other: After My Heart
Other: Dream Day
Trainer: Go Girl go
3rd:
Trainer: Two Thirty Seven
6th:
Trainer: Sumitas
Trainer: Denied
8th:
Longshot Pace: Loving Type
Not much for Thursday
1st:
Pace: Miss Sand Bar
4th:
Other: Light up the Phone
Now I know why they suggest an odds cut-off with this program. 1-3 for a profit last 2 days instead of a loss. Thursday a horse barely not qualified or maybe qualified I'm not sure won at 7-1 but didn't bet so doesn't count.
Friday
4th
Trainer: Segovia
6th: A close call
Pace: Spy Me Not
7th:
Pace: Grant Marty A Wish It qualifies but I wouldn't play it because of the prescense and pace of the 5
Saturday:
5th:
Other: Night Life
8th
Pace: Atlantic Ocean
Pace: Fencelineneighbor
10th
Trainer: Fly to The Lake
Looks like I have to lower my odds line for trainers:
at 2-1 to 7-2 the results are 4-9 including the 1 in the 10th yesterday. I bet it early so had the winner almost breaking even for the day. Starting next week I'll lower my odds to 2-1 on the trainer plays;
Sunday
7th:
Trainer: Boss Ego
Pace: Seattle Shamus
9th:
Trainer: Mr Siphon
Pace: Master of the Sea
Broke even as I played the 7 in the last because I had to bet before I saw final odds.
Monday-doesn't look good
6th
Trainer: A Smile per Mile
Trainer: American Czarina
7th
Trainer: Silver Yen
Trainer: Dessert
Longshot Pace: Bella Volare
I have to pay better attention to my longshot pace plays. This has been a tough meet for me with all the longshots that I haven't had like Taste Of Paradis in the feature. Have hung tough with the picks and betting (up on my win bets so far but need to find some longshots) and I'm starting to get the hang of this program
A very poor week. Results after 2 weeks
Trainer: 0-6 (5-11 under 4-1) Why'll I change it next week to 2-1 minimum
Longshot Pace: 0-7
Pace: 4-16 Bet $32 Return 40.80
Other: 2-8 Bet $16 Return 36.40
Still getting the hang of it and actually show a slight profit after 2 weeks. I'll see if lowering my odds on trainer plays will help and if I can hit a longshot next week.
Maybe I should've picked another track to do my test on based on betting results the last 2 Saturdays. But I figured Del Mar would be a tough test.
New week. A little tired as I didn't get much sleep.
Wednesday 080603
6th:
Other: Puxa Saco (small field I'll take 3-1)
7th:
Other: Bonus Pack
Trainer: Lusty Latin
Too Tired tonight. A couple horses could qualify for longshot pace.
Thursday
6th
Pace: Ardum Relaunch
Last 2 days were winners but the odds drop caught me by surprise. Bet Bonus Pack at 6-1 5 minutes to post but went off at 9-2. Today I bet Ardum Relaunch at 4-1 3 minutes to post but he went off at 5-2 with a big drop at post. Wins are wins. Lots of action tomorrow. Will drop odds because of odds drop and results so far. Already have on the trainer play as mentioned. Trainer 5-2. Other 5-1, Longshot Pace 7-1.
2nd
Other: Hopeful Season
Other: Crafty Madness
Trainer: The Borg Queen
4th:
Other: Tombstone
5th
Trainer: Atish
7th
Trainer: Ella Eria
Trainer: Top Spinner
8th
Trainer: Surviving Native
Lonshot Pace: Triptronic
Good day yesterday with one tough loss at the wire by a nose
Today-Saturday I've got to be careful or I'll force some plays
3rd
Trainer: Master Perfect
5th:
Trainer: Nice Fish
7th:
Trainer: Vacamonte
Longshot Pace: Ice Prince
9th:
Trainer: Sweepingly
Pace: Fly To The Wire
10th:
Other: Golden Fable (I wouldn't play this one because of pace but I've over-handicapped this program before and missed winners because of it so I'm using blind faith)
Sunday
7th:
Trainer: Golden Rahy
Longshot Pace: Gucayan Cheif
Why did they take Lucayan to the lead. I thought if he laid 2nd early he wins? Frustrating.
Monday:
2nd
Other: Dream Day
7th:
Trainer: Exceeding
Other: Unfurl the Flag
Results after first 3 weeks
Trainer: 3-17 Bet $34 return 28.20 (5-11 under 4-1 first 2 weeks before changed to 2-1 min odds, found out I set too high)
Other: 3-13 Bet $26 return $48
Pace: 6-16 Bet $32 return $54.20
Longshot Pace: 0-9 Bet $18 return $0
Total: 12-55 Bet $110 Return: $130.40
I'm getting better but screwed up with Exceeding by not using in 2nd place also.
They are longshots but wehn will I hit a longshot pace? Tomorrow. Not much qualifies for Wednesday. Want to finish the meet with a profit, almost 1/2 way there.
7th:
Longshot Pace: Reefs Sis
Longshot Pace: Carbon Copy
The 8 and 9 also rate high but low odds so will use those two to cover in an exacta.
Had a little vacation but I'm back. It's too bad the fields are already getting smaller.
4th
Other: Deja
Other: Continental Wine
5th
Pace: Miss Sand Bar
6th
Pace: Susie Joe's
Pace: Aclevershadeofjade
No wins yesterday but a nice 2nd over 10-1 to key a good exacta.
Wednesday
2nd
Pace: Kissin Paster
6th
Pace: Highly Tempting
Trainer: Sharpster
8th:
Trainer/Longshot Pace: Slam Inn
Another close 2nd at long odds.
Thursday:
1st
Pace: Outta Here
6th
Longshot Pace: Conceal the Deal
7th:
Pace: Boca Dream
hurrikane
08-21-2003, 08:40 AM
Niko,
curious what program you are useing?
I wouldn't give up on the longshots. You have'nt played that many and one will put you in the black.
Good luck
It's a beta version I'm trying out for someone. He programmed his own database and these are my picks based on some of the output. He wanted someone to try it to see how they would do with it. I've always liked Del Mar (although I'm disappointed with the short fields right now) and although I don't have the time to handicap everyday I agreed to do it this meet because it's pretty quick. He said ITS has some interest in selling it but didn't want to if it didn't help people. I dont' want to promote it because it may not be for sale and if it is I don't want this to turn into a plug on the board. The results aren't nearly as good as a lot of you achieve but a profits a profit and that's never been easy for me in the past. He told me about this board because he had visitied it in the past and said there were a lot of sharp people which I'd have to agree with. Long answer but hopefully it'll answer any questions you have.
I've made my share of mistakes, particularly some longshots, espicially today at Saratoga (I've got the day off to do house repair-you can see how well it's going) but I'm learning.
Hopefully a long day and late night isn't affecting my thinking. After today I definately realize I need some help in how I bet.
1st
Longshot Pace: Love in the Mornin
Other: Fabulous Passion
4th
Other: Blue Seti
Longshot Pace: Nice Choice (borderline)
6th:
Trainer: HoneyPenny
7th
Pace: Bold Roberta
Other: Broke in Blairsden
Trainer: Diamond Tiara
Bet more than one in a race if they qualify on odds.
Rested today, terrible day yesterday
6th
Longshot Pace: Sorrytotellyou
Pace-Joyful Meeting
7th:
Pace: Para Usted
Other: givemethreedimes
8th
Pace: Cee's Elegance
Longshot Pace: Coconut Girl
Will today cap off a terrible week?
5th
Pace: Slew Summer
7th
Trainer: Golden Rahy
A terrible week, looks like I need to call for clarification, especially longshot pace.
Might be doing something wrong or it's just one of those losing streaks. Trianer angle was hot in the beginning of the meet but has cooled off.
Trainer: 3-21 won $28.20 Loss $13.80 (+ 5-11 win)
Other: 3-18 won $48 Profit $12.00
Pace: 7-23 won $64.60 Profit $18.60
Longshot: 0-16 Lost $32
Did a little back studying and consulting. Top rated picks for all races have only lost 5%. If I had limited myself to just those horses results would be better but...
3rd:
Other: Shezofoxy
Trainer: GoGirlGo
the 5 looks like a heavy favorite but ya gotta play em'
4th:
Trainer: Hagerstown
Pace: Akron Avenue
Officially giving up for a while because I'm overhandicapping myself even after speaking with my friend and I'm not used to handicapping everday. In the 3rd the 2 was the top ranked pace horse but I didn't put him up because the trainer was 1-28 off 90+ day lay-off. In the 6th the 1 horse was a top ranked other horse but he was a closer and who knows what else so I left him off and with the 2nd rated horses. Program good, bettor bad.
Officially giving up for a while because I'm overhandicapping myself even after speaking with my friend and I'm not used to handicapping everday. In the 3rd the 2 was the top ranked pace horse but I didn't put him up because the trainer was 1-28 off 90+ day lay-off. In the 6th the 1 horse was a top ranked other horse but he was a closer and who knows what else so I left him off and with the 2nd rated horses. Program good, bettor bad.
Ok, let's give it one more weekend before I officially quit now that I've calmed down after the mistakes I made Wednesday. I'll mark top rated next to horses ranked first. This should help as it would've taken out more than 1/2 the longshot pace horses to date.
1st
Trainer: Worldly Excess (top rated)
Leon's Deed is back top rated but I don't list as a pick category
4th:
Longshot pace: Hot Grip
Longshot pace: Royal Palace (top rated back)
Dream of Chasing is top rated last race but I think he's declining.
7th:
Other: Se Vera and Tifonica
Crazy Ensign is the top rated horse and these 2 are next. Doesn't look like there's any speed in here which will help Crazy.
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