Kentucky Derby Betting & Thoughts

[Stevie Belmont]

All in all I thought it was a great Kentucky Derby. The sun even popped before post time.

As they were getting ready to go in I got that feeling it was going to be his day.

I knew Sidney's Candy was done quickly after seeing him chase and not settle behind a rapid pace set by Conveyance. I had bad vibes since the moment Sadler mentioned he did not gallop out as stong as he normally does over sloppy track after his workout. I still stuck with him as my top pick.

I focused my other bets around different horses.

Super Saver was logical.

Ice Box closed like a rocket.

Paddy O'Prado showed signs all week he had the capability of running well.

Make Music For Me making his first start on a non synthetic track got the benefit of the doubt and got in the Super.

Everything went the way I thought he might. All of my tosses did not do too much. I decided to toss Dublin the day of the Derby. he ran the best of the tosses. Too many negatives for me.

In the end I backed out on Lookin at lucky all together--worried too much about the 1 hole and he was 6/1.

Had them all--on different tickets. Had a saver win play on Super Saver--but did not get in the black for the Derby...

I thought I did a solid job capping, but not such a good job constructing the tickets this time. Never had any intentions of playing a super, although I gave it some consideration--thats where the big bananas are. They did not offer the dime super either, and I can see why. Played some exactas, trifectas and a couple win bets. Close I tell ya, but what's the saying?

How did you do?

[OFFandRUNNING10]

I agree... overall was a great race and was really happy to see the sun pop out there for not only the race but for all the people there.

I felt like I had a pretty good grasp on the race going in as well. I ended up dropping Sidney's Candy based mostly off the workout reports. The 20th post overall didnt worry me to much. I knew he would have a shot to be in the top 5 barring a poor break. I was surprised to see how he tried to hang with Conveyance...I really thought he would have him sit back.

Most of my other tosses (DMC, Dublin, Nobles Promise...) did exactly what I expected them to do.

I couldn't toss LAL. I felt he was the best overall horse in the race. I had a lot of questions about the post and trip but couldn't pull him from my wagers even @ 6-1. I would have kicked myself so hard if I tossed, who I felt was the best overall horse, and then beat me. I did however only include him in my exotic bets and left him off my WPS bet.

Was a great race...cant wait for the Preakness.

[theveep]

Played 2, 4, 18, 14 in all scenarios. Hit the exacta. Wished I put more on it.

Lou

[OFFandRUNNING10]

I am so upset that I couldnt get my trifecta wager in. I processed my exacta bet 13 times and my WPS bet 7 times before I could finally get them to go through. By the time I got the 2nd one in the LAL was already in the gate.

So frustrating... :bang:

[W2G]

It was a very logical outcome. I stunk up the place keying Jackson Bend betting-wise but at least I wasn't left scratching my head at the results. Looking back my best reason for tossing SS was that he would be very overbet and that Borel couldn't possibly win again. Pretty weak arguments as the horse made a lot of sense.

I'm warming to the prospect of the unlikely duo of Borel and Pletcher taking aim at the TC. Never been Pletcher's biggest fan but the guy is more likable than I've realized.

[PhantomOnTour]

My homemade figs have a so-so record in the Derby. Shippers from that many places complicate things...tough to have up to date pars for places like Sunland Park.
The Ark Derby came back the fastest by my figs (117-120-116) so naturally my top last fig horses were from that race. Actually, my top 3 figs were from that race by virtue of David, Super Saver and Dublin all being so close at the wire.
Next fastest race for me was the Gotham. Oops, sucked me in and I used Awesome Act on the rebound theory...nope.
SA Derby comes next and then the Illinois Derby, but the pace in those races simply didn't measure up to the Ark Dby or anything that Conveyance and Super Saver ran in other races.
Slowest preps for me were the Blue Grass, La Dby and Fla Dby.

So how did I play it? Just like I play all the Derbies; a little handicapping common sense and some nostalgic dreamin'.

I live in La and was forced outta New Orleans by Katrina so I used Talamo on Sidney (bad call-nostalgic dreamin). Super Saver was my top overall fig earner on pace and speed (good call). Awesome Act looks soooooo menacing in his races coming off the turn, and this pace will be quick like the Gotham, so he will bounce back and fire...he lost a shoe, etc...(bad call). Lookin At Lucky is simply the classiest and most battle tested runner in the race. His Rebel was a lil slow but it showed he could run well on dirt, and Baffert didn't do this with Pioneer last year, so maybe he made the right move this year(bad call).

Ex:
:1: :4: :16: :20: w
:1: :2: :4: :7: :16: :17: :20:
(what the heck-gotta throw in Zito off the strong mud work-Ice Box)

and a win bet on the top fig :4: horse.

.....thanks to Desormeaux falling asleep on Paddy I got Ice Box up for the Ex. Decent profit, but not a smashing score by a longshot.

[Smarty Cide]

********************BREAKING NEWS********************


Backtalk just crossed the finish line

[OFFandRUNNING10]

********************BREAKING NEWS********************


Backtalk just crossed the finish line

Wait wait wait... Backtalk was in the race?!? :eek:

[Smarty Cide]

smarty jones really waisted that load. backtalk should of been a blow job.... lol


hope i didnt go to far

[OFFandRUNNING10]

Hey he at least made it there. That is more than I can say about any of the horses im involved with. lol

[Smarty Cide]

yeah thats true, im stuck in a bad investment on a horse as we speak

[OFFandRUNNING10]

yeah thats true, im stuck in a bad investment on a horse as we speak

Uh oh ....that is not good.

We have been very fortunate and have experienced some early success. However, we have had to deal with a fair amount of little injuries so far. Hopefully they will all bounce back healthy this summer. Overall we cant complain.

[judd]

WE ARE ALL FOOLS, SUPER SAVER WAS THE PLAY-WHY ? BECAUSE THE GUY WEARING A $100 HAIRPIECE AND WHO DOESNT EVER GO TO THE TRACK OR BETS THE HORSES GETS INSIDE INFO AND BET $100,000 ON THE WINNER.
WHO EVER GAVE HIM THE TIP IS PROBABLY GETTING A %
WE ARE FOOLS :bang: :bang: :bang: :bang: :ThmbDown:

[jefftune]

I was sort of surprised Super Saver was the second betting choice - the Calvin factor I guess. I figured Ice Box would be good and he was. I played a few exactas with him but didn't have him with the winner. However, I played a single $2.00 future win bet in Pool 1 on - SUPER SAVER! So I got $43.20 for that. I should have stuck with him - he paid 25-1 in Pool 2 and 35-1 in Pool 3!