Why the Best Horse in the Derby, ICE BOX, was an Awful Selection

[Robert Fischer]

ICE BOX was far and away the most visually impressive horse in KYD 136.
:jump:
Finishing a fast closing 2nd after a compromising stop-start trip, he should have been the winner.

But he was an awful derby pick...:confused:




IB PPs
http://img215.imageshack.us/img215/706/iceboxpps.jpg
2yo-4 Tries to break Maiden, and had to go to the Meadowlands for a Bris 111 Race Rating to break it by .5 lengths, earning a modest 80 Spd figure.
3yo-3races 2 wins. Unimpressive Allowance and Fla Derby wins and a non-factor 5th in the Fountain of Youth.




looking at the two wins:



GULFSTREAM ALLOWANCE
http://img402.imageshack.us/img402/7984/jan18allowance.jpg
ICE BOX beats PLEASANT PRINCE by 1/2 length in a 5 horse field, both had similar trips and were not separated by a whole lot.






FLORIDA DERBY
http://img88.imageshack.us/img88/2904/fladerbyicebox.jpg
In a collapsing race, ICE BOX and PLEASANT PRINCE both come from off the pace(11th and 9th @ 2nd call), with ICE BOX winning a nose, and little separates their effort. LENTENOR 4th from 10th@2nd call also ran extremely similar from the same part of the race. RULE the only survivor of the pace collapse and only losing by 1.25lengths was probably best in spite of his 3rd place finish.



Now to Double check the FLA Derby on Video:
Me_I0F25h6g
@1:45 on the video, horses enter the stretch, eventual winner ICE BOX(widest) enters on the wrong lead and runs on the wrong lead through the length of the stretch. PLEASANT PRINCE(center) runs stride for stride with ICE BOX and probably wins if not for brushing with RULE in the final 1/16th.




KENTUCKY DERBY:jump: - ICE BOX runs has to stop and start, closing fast in the stretch on the wrong lead and looking like the best horse in the field.




CONCLUSION: ICE BOX either ran a big new top effort in the Derby -OR- KYD136 heavily favored closers and the type of trip that ICE BOX had(in spite of the traffic problems), -OR- PLEASANT PRINCE and ICE BOX are the 2 best 3YOs in the country. :faint:


congrats to those who did have him - i wish i did!

[bisket]

i think what you didn't take into consideration is that ice box is still very green. he is very fast, but still gets in his own way. in the fla derby the camera loses him just before the first turn. he was only a length behind the last horse. when he they hit the backstretch he's 5-6 lengths behind then last horse. just before the camera loses him entering the first turn you can see the jock yanking the reign sideways. he was on the wrong lead going into the first turn. thats why he lost 1 second on the whole field. i believe he is probably 1 second better than what we saw in the fla derby. he definately showed that ability in the derby!! i haven't looked at the replay with ice box in mind and will probably do it sometime this week, but this guy may be the best of all these ability wise. if he can get straightened out that is. anyhow the way i looked at is he spotted the field a second in the fla derby, and the extra 1/8 in the derby just gave him more time to catch up. that was my worst case scenerio looking at him in the derby. best case was he straightened out and won in a walk.

[dansan]

I was saying calvin was going to win derby no matter what horse he was on look at my past post he owns that track :eek:

[Buckeye]

The Florida Derby winner has traditionally proven to be an excellent prospect. Didn't quite work out this time but close at 11.70 to one. The Florida Derby winner has won The Kentucky Derby 10 times in the last 55 years.

[bisket]

The Florida Derby winner has traditionally proven to be an excellent prospect. Didn't quite work out this time but close at 11.70 to one. The Florida Derby winner has won The Kentucky Derby 10 times in the last 55 years.
the surfaces at both churchill and gulfstream are very similar. that angle pays handsomely not only in derby, but also in january at gulfstream.

[Robert Fischer]

i think what you didn't take into consideration is that ice box is still very green. he is very fast, but still gets in his own way. in the fla derby the camera loses him just before the first turn. he was only a length behind the last horse. when he they hit the backstretch he's 5-6 lengths behind then last horse. just before the camera loses him entering the first turn you can see the jock yanking the reign sideways. he was on the wrong lead going into the first turn. thats why he lost 1 second on the whole field. i believe he is probably 1 second better than what we saw in the fla derby. he definately showed that ability in the derby!!

pretty good :ThmbUp:

[JPinMaryland]

This is a very interesting thread and i still havent formed any conclusions because I did not see exactly what happened to him in upper stretch. I did see just inside the 1/8 pole he had to swerve to the right abruptly to get around Make Music; hard to pick him up prior to that.

I though he coudl have made move earlier; for instance Looking at Lucky in red saddle cloth is quite close to him at one pt in the stretch but moved before the 1/8 pole and had a better shot at the leaders.

Obviously Ice Box is a big horse with a huge stride who can move fast once he gets going but I am not at all sold on him for Preakness. For one thing this field was staggering home most of them in 27+ fractions. Just imagine moving most of the horses around him ahead 6 lengths and cutting off the last 110 yards (e.g. the PReakness distance) and his flying finish looks way too late.

That and I dont know if he can start his move early enuf, most of these Preakness winners make a big move in the turn and they are usually near the lead or just off it.


On the other hand, just be fair, one can do a lot worse by spotting also rans who finshed well in the derby. Little Current ran a very fast final fraction in a fifth place finish but went on to win the next two.

So as a betting angle I like the thinking, just not really sold on this horse.

[Dahoss9698]

If Ice Box was an awful Derby selection, who was a good one?

[WinterTriangle]

Ice Box has a big stride, is a closer, and stayer.

These types aren't speed horses.

At 1-1/4 he was a good bet. At longer, especially against horses who cannot stay, he's even a better bet.

Racing in mud/slop IMHO, is never a race where you can draw any "ingenius" conclusions about horses, except that they liked the mud.

If that weren't true, then everyone would relish playing off-tracks, because they're so "formful" :rolleyes:


Steve Roman can have bragging rights this year, he always says that horses iwth the best PF's do the best in classic races, and here is his chart before the derby:

http://www.chef-de-race.com/main_menu.htmKE


the top 4 won the ky derby.

[pandy]

Gulfstream, as usual, was speed favoring when Ice Box won the Fla Derby so that certainly counts for something and over any track that is not speed biased, such as yesterday's track, he should come flying. He actually did make his move early enough yesterday, if he didn't get stopped twice he would've won easily. If he got stopped once, he still would've run. The pace helped I'm sure but no matter how you look at it, to say that Ice Box was full of run is an understatement, he looked like Zenyatta in the stretch, powerful. When he first started his run on the rail he exploded, then had to take up, accelerated again, had to take up sharply, then exploded again late once he angled wide for a clear lane, a remarkable effort.

[tzipi]

I hate when "______ was an awful selection" goes up after a race has been run.

[JPinMaryland]

If Ice Box was an awful Derby selection, who was a good one?


I actually had him then dropped him off tix for no good reason other than overthinking it. I like closers in the derby he was the only one who appealed to me, then I figured the off track would hurt him which shouldnt have been a concern, etc...

I still am not sold on him, but I would like to see the entire stretch run.

[WinterTriangle]

I figured the off track would hurt him which shouldnt have been a concern, etc

Actually, an off track should be a concern.

Nobody can compare how a horse runs at Gulfstream or SA on a dry track and then take a thick rainy muddy day at CDX and say it's the same, or even that the horse will run the same. If it does it's just a way of "lucking out" because there were horses yesterday who we found out just could not run on an off track.

An off track is always somewhat of a crapshoot, but sometimes the horses run to how we thought they would.

Like I said, if it was formful, people would relish off tracks and very few handicappers do.

[precocity]

he was a good pic for me? boxed the 6-4-1-2-10 for a 2$ tri.

[salty]

They lost

[NTamm1215]

This thread pre-supposes that anyone who bet Ice Box in the Derby did so thinking he was some terrific horse who had run a number of great races where things didn't go his way. As someone who bet Ice Box, I understood completely that he needed the dynamics of the race to go his way. That's why I ridiculed everyone who liked Sidney's Candy. It seemed very cut and dry that this was going to be a fast-paced Derby.

Looking back on it, Ice Box got exactly what he needed to get the job done and was unlucky to have his momentum stopped on multiple occasions down the stretch. Those of us who wagered on him knew this was a strong possibility, it's very difficult to navigate a clean trip through 18+ rivals (unless you're ridden by Calvin Borel).

Thus, I find the argument that Ice Box was an awful selection quite ridiculous, unless one made the selection with rationale that didn't include the expected pace.

NT

[kid4rilla]

And there is no question that CD strip was uncharacteristically non-speed favoring for this week. Especially surprising due to the weather.

Super Saver wins the Preakness by open lengths.

[46zilzal]

And there is no question that CD strip was uncharacteristically non-speed favoring for this week. Especially surprising due to the weather.

Super Saver wins the Preakness by open lengths.
Quite the opposite occurred as I warned our Sartin group repeatedly

[Dahoss9698]

And there is no question that CD strip was uncharacteristically non-speed favoring for this week. Especially surprising due to the weather.

Super Saver wins the Preakness by open lengths.

This is a crop that aside from Eskendereya has taken turns beating each other. You had a horse (Super Saver) that likes the surface, who liked it wet and was the beneficiary of the best trip in the race.

I just don't see that happening again. He ran a nice race, but crawled home and if Ice Box isn't shut off is second. He's going to be way overbet off of that effort and I don't think he's going to NY with a chance for the triple crown.

[JPinMaryland]

This is a crop that aside from Eskendereya has taken turns beating each other. You had a horse (Super Saver) that likes the surface, who liked it wet and was the beneficiary of the best trip in the race.

I just don't see that happening again. He ran a nice race, but crawled home and if Ice Box isn't shut off is second. He's going to be way overbet off of that effort and I don't think he's going to NY with a chance for the triple crown.


I agree. this crop is not outstanding. None of saturdays front runners appear to want any part of 10f. Most of the others dont look outstanding either. It is really hard to quantify what makes a bad crop, but it appears this one is with the absence of Eskendrya and a few others.

Maybe look for a fresh runner in the Preakness?

[Dahoss9698]

I agree. this crop is not outstanding. None of saturdays front runners appear to want any part of 10f. Most of the others dont look outstanding either. It is really hard to quantify what makes a bad crop, but it appears this one is with the absence of Eskendrya and a few others.

Maybe look for a fresh runner in the Preakness?

Hurricane Ike might be the best of the new shooters, although he was awful in his only start going two turns. He had an excuse with the wide trip and has improved a lot since getting on real dirt.

I think it's going to depend on who runs back from the Derby. It looks like Baffert is considering running Conveyance, so there would be plenty of pace.

[Robert Fischer]

This thread pre-supposes that anyone who bet Ice Box in the Derby did so thinking he was some terrific horse who had run a number of great races where things didn't go his way. As someone who bet Ice Box, I understood completely that he needed the dynamics of the race to go his way. That's why I ridiculed everyone who liked Sidney's Candy. It seemed very cut and dry that this was going to be a fast-paced Derby.

Looking back on it, Ice Box got exactly what he needed to get the job done and was unlucky to have his momentum stopped on multiple occasions down the stretch. Those of us who wagered on him knew this was a strong possibility, it's very difficult to navigate a clean trip through 18+ rivals (unless you're ridden by Calvin Borel).

Thus, I find the argument that Ice Box was an awful selection quite ridiculous, unless one made the selection with rationale that didn't include the expected pace.

NT

not really meant to truly bash anyone or their opinion in spite of the title, and you are 100% correct with your points here, as well as the fact that selections(especially derby selections, especially underneath derby selections possibly beyond your top 1 or 2 picks) are rarely unconditional love affairs in so much as they are simply the ones who can fit a certain scenario and possibly 'git it done.

To be honest I was upset at myself for not using running style well in this derby and belaboring/having fun with some of the knocks against the standout derby runner Ice Box.

Now if Pleasant Prince wins the Preakness... then i'll have a good laugh!

[emsteve16]

Thats how they finished. He actually had Americaon Lion

[Robert Fischer]

Thats how they finished. He actually had Americaon Lion

sorry i don't follow

[PaceAdvantage]

not really meant to truly bash anyone or their opinion in spite of the title, and you are 100% correct with your points here, as well as the fact that selections(especially derby selections, especially underneath derby selections possibly beyond your top 1 or 2 picks) are rarely unconditional love affairs in so much as they are simply the ones who can fit a certain scenario and possibly 'git it done. One of his points was that he ridiculed everyone who liked Sidney's Candy due to "dynamics of the race."

If that's true, he must have also ridiculed everyone who liked Super Saver, no?

[Sericm]

:1: Looking at Lucky was probably the best horse to have the Gods rain on him.
From the minute he drew post 1 he was doomed. And being bumped into the rail twice in the first furlong completely did him in, to even finish sixth was a monumental achievement.

I know all you SA haters will scoff at this but this Horse will prove his mettle
in the Preakness, Belmont, Travers, or Haskell.

I'm not saying he will win all four, let's get that straight, as many of you are ready to twist everybodie's words you don't agree with. But whichever races Baffert chooses to enter him in he will be a Horse to be reckoned with no matter what the field.

:jump: Sericm

[NTamm1215]

One of his points was that he ridiculed everyone who liked Sidney's Candy due to "dynamics of the race."

If that's true, he must have also ridiculed everyone who liked Super Saver, no?

Borel made a conscious effort to rate Super Saver in the Ark Derby. I was very unsure how to view that race given that the outcome and the way it unfolded was very odd.

Sidney's Candy, on the other hand, a horse that had never rated effectively, benefited from positive pace setups in both of his route wins, on a new surface was a poor bet IMO because of the expected hot pace.

Calvin Borel's ability to get Super Saver to relax and move when he wanted is truly amazing, especially considering Pletcher himself previously considered SS his most unratable horse.

NT

[andymays]

Borel made a conscious effort to rate Super Saver in the Ark Derby. I was very unsure how to view that race given that the outcome and the way it unfolded was very odd.
Sidney's Candy, on the other hand, a horse that had never rated effectively, benefited from positive pace setups in both of his route wins, on a new surface was a poor bet IMO because of the expected hot pace.

Calvin Borel's ability to get Super Saver to relax and move when he wanted is truly amazing, especially considering Pletcher himself previously considered SS his most unratable horse.

NT

I threw out Super Saver off his previous performance. He couldn't go past Line of David with that trip?

On the other hand it was his third off a layoff.

He was going to a track where he had run well and had a 5 length win.

He showed an affinity for an off track when he won by 7 at Belmont after setting a fairly quick pace.

He got a perfect trip under Mr Borel.

All that and I think some of the others regressed badly from their previous performances.

I'm not ready to give up on Sidney's Candy yet. We'll see.

[joanied]

I agree. this crop is not outstanding. None of saturdays front runners appear to want any part of 10f. Most of the others dont look outstanding either. It is really hard to quantify what makes a bad crop, but it appears this one is with the absence of Eskendrya and a few others.

Maybe look for a fresh runner in the Preakness?

Appearance shouldn't mean much, IMO...the way that track surface was, you cannot honestly evaluate any of the horses...
but if you check pedigrees, there is 10F stamina in many...and then some!

Seems to me that every year many say the same thing...it isn't much of a crop...why is that? Expectations maybe too high? I bet if we went over the 3yr old crops for tha last decade, 80% would say...'isn't much of a crop'.

[JPinMaryland]

yes joanied, it could be that the surface was really tiring; I dont think there is any real methodology to prove that a slow time was the result of a poor horse or a slow surface. You can use BSF or whatever measure but most figure making is also subjective in part.

Im just wondering if there is a way to look at past races and find similar paces and see if a similar number of runners faded at the end. it is really hard to find actual duplicate performances once you start to consider pace, final time, track condition, trip, etc.

[joanied]

I think it would take a lot of searching to come up with similar scenerios...maybe one of the guys here that is into that stuff can help with that? Well, I guess you could just find Derby charts for maybe the last 10-15 years and compare fractional times? Actually, that might be an interesting project!

I know, generally speaking, sloppy equates to fast times...but IMO, Churchill on Sat. just looked so gooey...more like melted peanut butter.

[JPinMaryland]

the most similar race I can see is 1961 although that is not a sloppy track the fractions and come home times are fairly similar. I have posted a bit more in another thread.

[bisket]

i think overall the group as a whole is just a little green in my opinion. after watching replays on this group i don't think i can remember seeing so many runners have issues with changing leads and just looking green. i'm tellin ya 1/2 of these guys still look like a group of maidens... sheesh i think the main reason the winner ran in a straight line for the first time in any of his races is because he was on the rail and couldn't lug in!!!!