Preakness 135

[Smarty Cide]

Might as well start talking about it. Who you think goes?

[MNslappy]

is D'Funnybone in play? anyone know?

[Smarty Cide]

Rule and Schoolyard Dreams probably....

[OTM Al]

Rule isn't right and won't be back for any TC races.

[slewis]

Schoolyard is....and we'll be there..if we have $$$.

[horses4courses]

is D'Funnybone in play? anyone know?

I know he's not likely....he folded like a cheap suit last week in NY.

[MNslappy]

Slewis,

:ThmbUp: I loved him going into the Wood. Obviously he came out of it well, glad to hear it!

[MNslappy]

I know he's not likely....he folded like a cheap suit last week in NY.

You're right....he was pointed to the Preakness after the Swale, but after the Withers disappointment Dutrow said he's sticking to 1 turn races with him in the future, I stand corrected.

[Shelby]

I can't wait for Preakness! I wonder if Esky will be well by then?

[joanied]

I can't wait for Preakness! I wonder if Esky will be well by then?

No way...suspensory injuries take time...might see him back during the summer, though...since Zayat has to sell the horse, I would think they'd like to increase his value with at least one more black type race, maybe at Saratoga...but we won't be seeing him back anytime soon.
What a shame, though.

[Shelby]

No way...suspensory injuries take time...might see him back during the summer, though...since Zayat has to sell the horse, I would think they'd like to increase his value with at least one more black type race, maybe at Saratoga...but we won't be seeing him back anytime soon.
What a shame, though.

That is too bad :(

DRF has a list of possible Preakness starters

http://www.drf.com/news/article/112651.html

Aikenite (Todd Pletcher)

A Little Warm (Tony Dutrow)

Bushwhacked (Jonathan Sheppard)

Caracortado (Mike Machowsky)

Dublin (D. Wayne Lukas)

Hurricane Ike (John Sadler)

Ice Box (Nick Zito)

Jackson Bend (Nick Zito)

Lookin At Lucky (Bob Baffert)

Paddy O Prado (Dale Romans)

Pleasant Prince (Wesley Ward)

Schoolyard Dreams (Derek Ryan)

Super Saver (Todd Pletcher)

Turf Melody (Graham Motion)

[joanied]

Schoolyard is....and we'll be there..if we have $$$.

Good luck, Slewis...hope you :ThmbUp: make it...can't tell ya how many 'schoolyard dreams' I had as a kid:)

[JPinMaryland]

is that winslow Homer horse also out for good or what?

[onefast99]

is D'Funnybone in play? anyone know?
Not unless it is 7/8ths and the last time I looked it wasn't.

[onefast99]

That is too bad :(

DRF has a list of possible Preakness starters

http://www.drf.com/news/article/112651.html

Aikenite (Todd Pletcher)

A Little Warm (Tony Dutrow)

Bushwhacked (Jonathan Sheppard)

Caracortado (Mike Machowsky)

Dublin (D. Wayne Lukas)

Hurricane Ike (John Sadler)

Ice Box (Nick Zito)

Jackson Bend (Nick Zito)

Lookin At Lucky (Bob Baffert)

Paddy O Prado (Dale Romans)

Pleasant Prince (Wesley Ward)

Schoolyard Dreams (Derek Ryan)

Super Saver (Todd Pletcher)

Turf Melody (Graham Motion)
Add Chief Counsel to the mix!

[MNslappy]

Caracortado could be interesting, has he ever ran on the dirt?
He was running well at SA until Sidney's Candy came along.

[WinterTriangle]

Pretty sure Ice Box not going.

not the right race for him anyway.

[PaceAdvantage]

Pretty sure Ice Box not going.

not the right race for him anyway.He's on the list of probables, is he not? What makes you say this, other than personal opinion?

[gm10]

That is too bad :(

DRF has a list of possible Preakness starters

http://www.drf.com/news/article/112651.html

Aikenite (Todd Pletcher)

A Little Warm (Tony Dutrow)

Bushwhacked (Jonathan Sheppard)

Caracortado (Mike Machowsky)

Dublin (D. Wayne Lukas)

Hurricane Ike (John Sadler)

Ice Box (Nick Zito)

Jackson Bend (Nick Zito)

Lookin At Lucky (Bob Baffert)

Paddy O Prado (Dale Romans)

Pleasant Prince (Wesley Ward)

Schoolyard Dreams (Derek Ryan)

Super Saver (Todd Pletcher)

Turf Melody (Graham Motion)

8 out of the 9 last preakness winners came out of the derby/oaks
the exception was bernardini (when barbaro broke down)
so you can probably eliminate half the field

[OFFandRUNNING10]

He's on the list of probables, is he not? What makes you say this, other than personal opinion?

Zito has said/hinted strongly in more than one interview that he does not think turning Ice Box around in 2 weeks is in his best interest and would like to give him the extra rest and bring him back for the Belmont where he is better suited for anyways.

[theveep]

I think entering Ice Box in the Preakness would be great. The track bias has favored E/P style horses and I think that big kick can play a big role with a smaller field.

Lou

[salty]

I think Zito is going to save him for the Belmont. I hope some horses show some talent in the Preakness so Ice Box will get good odds. :cool:

[cj's dad]

I think entering Ice Box in the Preakness would be great. The track bias has favored E/P style horses and I think that big kick can play a big role with a smaller field.

LouHe's anything but an E/P. He was 15th in the Derby at the mile pole.

[Grits]

I think Zito is going to save him for the Belmont.

According to an earlier report, he and Mr.LaPenta are disagreeing on this. LaPenta wanting to move on to the Preakness.

[FlyinLate]

According to an earlier report, he and Mr.LaPenta are disagreeing on this. LaPenta wanting to move on to the Preakness.

Heard this as well. La Penta wants to go, Zito wants to wait.
I'm sure Zito saw how well IB performed off solid rest (6 weeks from FL Derby) and thinks he will give his best run come Belmont.
After that run by IB in the Derby though its clear to see why LaPenta has the itch to run in the Preakness.

[joanied]

Another thing to consider with Ice Box is his seeming to have problems with lead changes...can you imagine him not being on the right lead coming into the final turn for home at Pimlico...he might pull a Bo Rail and scrape the paint...on the outside rail :eek:

But, La Penta should do what Zito wants...bet he thought Zito was nuts with the 6 weeks...and that worked out pretty damned good!! Those two have been together for too long...La Penta should know better than to question Zito's judgement...IMO:)

[theveep]

He's anything but an E/P. He was 15th in the Derby at the mile pole.

You're right. But look at the recent track bias at Pimlico on the longer dirt races. Seems to favor the closers.

Lou

[theveep]

forgot the link:

http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/editorial/article.cgi?id=15

[RockHardTen1985]

http://www.drf.com/tc/kentuckyderby/2010/futures/pps/preak.pdf

[PaceAdvantage]

Pretty sure Ice Box not going.

not the right race for him anyway.You called it...

[theveep]

In my opinion, I think the contenders are thin in quality. The only horses I like outside of the Derby horses are A Little Warm and Pleasant Prince.


Lou

[WinterTriangle]

He's on the list of probables, is he not? What makes you say this, other than personal opinion?

It wasn't personal opinion the day I posted this, I was listening to what Zito was saying. I figured the trainer's opinion had some validity.


As it turns out, he's not running.

[joanied]

Zito made the right choice...and La Penta is a good owner to listen to him...
besides...Zito just loves being the 'spoiler'...now he'll have a hell of a shot at doing that.

[JPinMaryland]

school yard dreams made a big move on the turn in TB derby, what was the conventional wisdom on his failure in the Wood Mem? I didnt find a thread on the TB dby and just now looking for the other.

[MNslappy]

from The Downey Profile (May 3)

We are told that Schoolyard Dreams had a problem before the Grade I Wood Memorial, when he finished fourth in a six-horse field after failing to shoot through a gap that opened for him in the stretch. Eskendereya won the Wood.

“The horse had a minor infection before the Wood,” said trainer Derek Ryan. “The jock told me that the hole closed up on him, and he had to check out. That cost us the race and the chance to go to the Derby. It might be a blessing in disguise because he’s been doing great since then.”

Ryan said he plans to work Schoolyard Dreams Wednesday or Thursday at Monmouth Park in company with Ponzi Scheme, another 3-year-old in his stable. The colt has put in two works at Philadelphia Park since the Wood, including a bullet-of-31 move on April 24.

[Wickel]

Never, in recent memory, seen a horse experience as much trouble as Lookin' At Lucky. If he gets into the race, it's his to lose. I would hope that Gomez take him back early, grab an outside lane--not too wide--and roll on the turn. If this happens, it's all over but the celebrating--Super Saver or not!

[cj]

school yard dreams made a big move on the turn in TB derby, what was the conventional wisdom on his failure in the Wood Mem? I didnt find a thread on the TB dby and just now looking for the other.

He ran pretty much the same race, but the winner of the Wood was a much better horse.

[joanied]

Never, in recent memory, seen a horse experience as much trouble as Lookin' At Lucky. If he gets into the race, it's his to lose. I would hope that Gomez take him back early, grab an outside lane--not too wide--and roll on the turn. If this happens, it's all over but the celebrating--Super Saver or not!

Lucky has been my Derby horse since early last year...and my big hope for a possible TC...he was and still is, IMO, the complete package...sans Gomez ;) ...and right after the Derby I was thinking of sweet revenge...but now I am leaning towards staying with Super Saver...I love Lucky, so this ain't easy for me, to jump off him now...but, it would be really great for racing to go to the Belmont with another TC on the line...Belmont Park needs a full house on Belmont Day, and that would do it.
But, IMO, if he goes to the Preakness, it will not surprise me at all if he wins it...if Calvin can't get the job done...I hope it's Lookin at Lucky that beats him...I could deal with that:)

[KingChas]

Never, in recent memory, seen a horse experience as much trouble as Lookin' At Lucky. If he gets into the race, it's his to lose. !

"Dollar Bill"....ring a bell? :eek:

[hogan6]

"Dollar Bill"....ring a bell? :eek:
Like Dollar Bill was gonna try to run with Point Given.

[KingChas]

My point given was between Dollar Bill & Lookin At Lucky.

When a horse constantly has troubled trips, the thought is the next race he will get clear, doesn't happen.
Horses that always have trouble will find trouble.
I'll pass on LAL. ;)

[LemonSoupKid]

My point given was between Dollar Bill & Lookin At Lucky.

When a horse constantly has troubled trips, the thought is the next race he will get clear, doesn't happen.
Horses that always have trouble will find trouble.
I'll pass on LAL. ;)

This is what worries me.

However, there's a difference in getting in trouble with 8 horse fields versus 20 horse fields with weird rail positioning.

LAL has won before. He'll win again. Horses like Dollar Bill were not nearly as accomplished as Lookin at Lucky.

Is he going to run?

[joanied]

This is what worries me.

However, there's a difference in getting in trouble with 8 horse fields versus 20 horse fields with weird rail positioning.

LAL has won before. He'll win again. Horses like Dollar Bill were not nearly as accomplished as Lookin at Lucky.

Is he going to run?

Baffert still undecided...wants to wait until he works Lucky...and if he goes (I beleive he will) Baffert is undecided about still using Gomez.

This week is going to be very interesting:)

[keithw84]

This is what worries me.

However, there's a difference in getting in trouble with 8 horse fields versus 20 horse fields with weird rail positioning.

LAL has won before. He'll win again. Horses like Dollar Bill were not nearly as accomplished as Lookin at Lucky.

Is he going to run?

I'm really torn on this. He showed a lot of pluck in the BC Juvenile and the Rebel, which makes me think he can overcome adversity.

On the other hand... In the SA Derby & KY Derby, he did better than you would expect from many other horses given the conditions, but not what you expect from the champion 2-year-old and Derby favorite. Not sure if it should be attributed to Gomez's rides, LAL's class/heart, or if he just really was "unlucky."

I still think LAL looms a major threat to Super Saver in the Preakness. I don't see anyone else winning it.

[bisket]

if lucky is in the race he will win. i'm almost sure of it. only if super saver runs the rail will another horse have a chance. this race will be a trifecta wheel for me. i'm not going to box the tri. i'm rather confident i have somewhat of a handle on the order of finsh.

[LemonSoupKid]

if lucky is in the race he will win. i'm almost sure of it. only if super saver runs the rail will another horse have a chance. this race will be a trifecta wheel for me. i'm not going to box the tri. i'm rather confident i have somewhat of a handle on the order of finsh.

I have this same gut feeling, and it is curious, because I really nailed the Derby.
As you guys might have seen, I had:

Lookin at Lucky
Ice Box
Super Saver
Patty O'Prado

Consequently, I got winner exacta and trifecta. And I do really think that the Lookin at Lucky pick was right. I think I had this race pegged perfectly, but the gambler in me realized that Lucky might have those problems of rail and trip ... so I actually bet Super for the win, especially since he had Borel and those conditions.

I like Super Saver, but with the defectors waiting until the Belmont, it just puts LaL up that much higher for me. I really think he is in fine form and has a great upside, especially being so experienced and a May foal.

I guess, as they say, "We shall see." :cool:

[Dahoss9698]

I have this same gut feeling, and it is curious, because I really nailed the Derby.
As you guys might have seen, I had:

Lookin at Lucky
Ice Box
Super Saver
Patty O'Prado

Consequently, I got winner exacta and trifecta. And I do really think that the Lookin at Lucky pick was right. I think I had this race pegged perfectly, but the gambler in me realized that Lucky might have those problems of rail and trip ... so I actually bet Super for the win, especially since he had Borel and those conditions.

I like Super Saver, but with the defectors waiting until the Belmont, it just puts LaL up that much higher for me. I really think he is in fine form and has a great upside, especially being so experienced and a May foal.

I guess, as they say, "We shall see." :cool:

I hope people keep thinking Lookin at Lucky was the right pick. Keep betting him down. He'd find trouble in a match race.

[KingChas]

This is what worries me.

However, there's a difference in getting in trouble with 8 horse fields versus 20 horse fields with weird rail positioning.


Less not forget..........
He got in trouble from the 7 hole in the SA Derby,10 horse field.

Maybe a jockey change is in order.Or he's just Lookin At Unlucky.
We shall see? ;)

[theveep]

My very early Preakness favorites are:

Super Saver (I think top of the crop; far and above everyone else in quality; getting better with each race; peaking at the right time)

Jackson Bend (I just think the Preakness is the right distance for this horse; the mud did not help the horse in the Derby)

Pleasant Prince (strong closer; impressed with the Florida Derby run)

Dublin (Good dirt horse, I think the distance is right for this horse)

I'm tossing Lucky yet again because I just don't think he's a true dirt horse. I am one that thinks synthetic numbers don't transfer for dirt. I also don't like to see rider change in this stage of the game.

Lou

[Smarty Cide]

if i had a nickle for every horse in the derby that dublin racedand lost 2 in races leading up.... that horse is a bum

[WinterTriangle]

Preakness is always a bit of a yawner for me. My least favorite TC race, usually turns out a bit chalky. Shortest TC race, so it seems speed figures work pretty good, pacing isn't as hard for jocks to figure out, or handicappers, unlike the KY Derby or esp. Belmont, where more fail to figure out how horses will pace themselves over longer distances, or even be able to get the longer distance in the first place.

If there aren't any decent good prices, I'm passing it altogether. $1 exacta last year paid $19.60 and in 2008 I think $18.30. Pretty much what you get on any other exacta during a weekday race.

[joanied]

Less not forget..........
He got in trouble from the 7 hole in the SA Derby,10 horse field.

Maybe a jockey change is in order.Or he's just Lookin At Unlucky.
We shall see? ;)

It isn't really as if the colt is looking for trouble...he didn't put himself in those spots that made him unlucky...his rider did.
Baffert said, in so many words, that he feels a jockey change might change his luck...stranger things have happened!!
:)

[PaceAdvantage]

It wasn't personal opinion the day I posted this, I was listening to what Zito was saying. I figured the trainer's opinion had some validity.


As it turns out, he's not running.Did you miss reply #30?

Anyway, it would have been more informative if you had included the Zito source in your original reply...

[TommyCh]

Schoolyard Dreams will be playable. I'll assume he's healthy and the TB race should condition him nicely.

I, too, do not understand the support for Dublin. He just disappoints.

[WinterTriangle]

Did you miss reply #30?

Yeah, sorry Pace, I did. Just saw it you said "you called it."

Anyway, it would have been more informative if you had included the Zito source in your original reply...

Well, I didn't have anything specific. Every single racing report included what trainers and jocks were saying on Sunday.

Just reading various snippets of post race stuff, a word here, a word there.

Years of studying Zito, he is a person who "thinks outloud." If he says a horse had a tough race.......or any small snippet.....


People aren't really used to any kind of transparency in others these days. At the track, he is also very acessible. We are used to showmen like dutrow who foam at the mouth.

On Derby Day, I watched him walking thru the mud, didn't look jubilant or even overly confident. He looked like he had a lot on his mind, and wasn't switching on a fake face on for the reporter who was walking next to him. rah rah. I think I remember him saying something prophetic all week, like we need moses to part the red sea. He was clearly concerned about the off track.

Very different than before the Florida derby. He was beaming that day before the race. That was good as him coming right out and saying: "my horse has a huge chance at winning this and I'm positive and excited."

(Had I actually put forth my "gut feeling" the day I made that post, I would have been mercilessly lambasted, and asked: Where was this published that Ice Box won't run?);)

Reading people is like reading horses in the paddocks. Sometimes, there are "tells".

[Tread]

My very early Preakness favorites are:
...

Dublin (Good dirt horse, I think the distance is right for this horse)

I'm tossing Lucky yet again because I just don't think he's a true dirt horse. I am one that thinks synthetic numbers don't transfer for dirt. I also don't like to see rider change in this stage of the game.

Lou

Pretty amazing to read someone discount Lucky on dirt when his highest BSF and TG figure both came on dirt, not to mention the fact that he beat one of the horses being called a "favorite" on dirt, while having a very eventful and troubled trip.

:bang:

He may find trouble in this race again, who knows. But he has already more than proven himself against this crop on dirt (dry dirt anyway).

[joanied]

Lucky has run on dirt and won...if the Derby had come up dry, even with that post, he very well would have been right there...and baffert always says he's a better dirt horse...he is gonna run huge on Staurday, IMO.:)